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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, TraHK HSI ETF, Sino Biopharmaceutical
  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 1st): CCB, China Life, Tencent, Li Auto, China Mobile, Xiaomi
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 1st): China Telecom, CIMC, Anjoy Food, China Everbright Bank
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Taishin Financial
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER
  • STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Xinjiang Daqo, Hwatsing Technology, Jinko Solar, Transsion
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Intouch, Bumrungrad Hospital, VGI, SCB X
  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): YTL, Gamuda, Tenaga Nasional, PPB, Cahya Mata Sarawak
  • HSI Index Earning Revision (Jul): Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu


HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, TraHK HSI ETF, Sino Biopharmaceutical

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 25th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in BYD, TraHK HSI ETF, Sino Biopharmaceutical.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 1st): CCB, China Life, Tencent, Li Auto, China Mobile, Xiaomi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 1st.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for CCB, China Life, Tencent, Li Auto, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Pop Mart Intl, BYD, Anta, ABC.

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 1st): China Telecom, CIMC, Anjoy Food, China Everbright Bank

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 61.4% as of Aug 1st.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer staples, health care and offset by materials.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Telecom, CIMC, Anjoy Food, China Everbright Bank, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, BYD.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD25.2bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics, Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Taishin Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated holding was USD1,155.3bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD659mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Taishin Financial, MediaTek, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Taishin Financial, Mediatek.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated holding was USD626.1bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,003mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER, Samsung H.I..

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Xinjiang Daqo, Hwatsing Technology, Jinko Solar, Transsion

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
  • We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
  • We highlighted EPS revision on Xinjiang Daqo, Hwatsing Technology, Jinko Solar, Transsion, Montage Technology.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Intouch, Bumrungrad Hospital, VGI, SCB X

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Aug 1st. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Bumrungrad Hospital, VGI, SCB X, Home Product Center, Bumrungrad Hospital, Home Product Center, Vgi, Scb X.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): YTL, Gamuda, Tenaga Nasional, PPB, Cahya Mata Sarawak

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest is USD397m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in YTL, Gamuda, Tenaga Nasional, PPB, Cahya Mata Sarawak.

HSI Index Earning Revision (Jul): Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
  • We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
  • We highlighted EPS revision on Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Morning Connection: US Lower After Trump Temper Tantrum over Jobs and Increased Tariffs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Morning Connection: US Lower After Trump Temper Tantrum over Jobs and Increased Tariffs
  • China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?


Japan Morning Connection: US Lower After Trump Temper Tantrum over Jobs and Increased Tariffs

By Andrew Jackson

  • Yields soared after the poor set of jobs data causing home builders to jump. Watch Sumitomo Forestry and Shin Etsu for upside.
  • TEL’s poor look for WFE sends semi cap tumbling, although Lam Research up as it likely takes market share.
  • Eastman -19% on poor numbers reflecting DOW’s woes the week before as tariffs pose significant headwinds for the chemicals industry.

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

By Osbert Tang, CFA


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Daily Brief ECM: Curator’s Cut: China Healthcare Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Curator’s Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves, and Korea’s Equity Upswing
  • ECM Weekly (4 August 2025)-Meituan, LG CNS, Wuxi AppTec, SICC, NSDL, Aditya Info, GigaDevice, WeWork
  • Pre-IPO Heartflow (HTFL US – Thoughts on the Business and Valuation Outlook
  • Aditya Infotech IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand with Decent Anchor
  • Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: Cuts in Market Forecasts


Curator’s Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves, and Korea’s Equity Upswing

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we review the rally in Chinese healthcare in 2025, track some updates in financial markets infrastructure companies, and see how Korean equities have done since end-May
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

ECM Weekly (4 August 2025)-Meituan, LG CNS, Wuxi AppTec, SICC, NSDL, Aditya Info, GigaDevice, WeWork

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, India deal flow remains strong, with HK A/H listing starting to flow in again.
  • On the placements front, WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) undertook a mega raising, while Prosus NV (PRX NA) has begun to pare its stake in Meituan (3690 HK)

Pre-IPO Heartflow (HTFL US – Thoughts on the Business and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • HeartFlow submitted its prospectus, targeting a valuation of up to US$1.32 billion in US IPO. Heartflow is seeking up to US$212.5 million by offering 12.5 million shares priced between US$15-17/share.
  • HeartFlow’s moat includes a first-mover advantage, medical insurance network, and ecological cooperation with equipment manufacturers. However, the accuracy of its products is slightly inferior to that of similar Chinese products.
  • Our forecast is revenue to up 35% YoY/30% YoY/25% YoY in 2025/2026/2027. HeartFlow may achieve breakeven in 2027. Comfortable valuation could be P/S of 7-9x if based on 2025E revenue.

Aditya Infotech IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand with Decent Anchor

By Akshat Shah

  • Aditya Infotech Ltd (6596564Z IN) raised about US$151m in its India IPO. 
  • Aditya Infotech is a CCTV/video surveillance provider offering a range of advanced video security and surveillance products, technologies and solutions for enterprise and consumer segments under its CP PLUS brand.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: Cuts in Market Forecasts

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
  • In this note, we look at changes to the company’s PHIP prospectus.
  • While there is no major update to the asset lists, we do see that the market forecasts provided in the prospectus scaled down significantly.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
  • Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL
  • [Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done
  • [Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
  • Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
  • RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
  • Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered


60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
  • Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
  • This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL

By Arun George


[Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share. 
  • This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
  • As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.

[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat

By Travis Lundy

  • On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements. 
  • The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
  • But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money. 


Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed

By David Blennerhassett

  • Nearly seven months after Smart Share (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal, a firm Offer has been entered into.
  • Terms remains the same as the indicative NBIO: US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. The Offeror comprises a consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO.
  • Timing from here? Perhaps three to four months, or late November completion by my estimate. 

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Smart Share Global (EM US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement for a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS. 
  • The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk), shareholder approval (effectively done) and a maximum dissenting condition (likely to be waived).
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for the end of December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.8%/20.1% (3.5%/8.7% including an ADS cancellation fee).  

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June’s larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.
  • Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets – a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. 
  • Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
  • Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
  • Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.

Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Advent raises its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, including a 6.3% premium over KKR’s prior offer, intensifying the competitive landscape and prompting a renewed board recommendation.
  • Irrevocable undertakings and partial share acquisition reduce KKR’s strategic room, though the transaction remains under close investor scrutiny amid broader private equity competition for UK assets.
  • Despite minimal spread, the situation offers insight into pricing discipline, sponsor credibility, and evolving UK M&A dynamics in a high-rate, FX-sensitive environment.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
  • Spindex Potential Privatisation
  • TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure
  • Teradyne Transforms Robotics with U.S. Manufacturing Push & Operational Breakthroughs!
  • PayPal Holdings: Enhancement in Branded Checkout, Payment Systems & Other Major Drivers!
  • Boeing Co: Service Expansion Complexity
  • Seagate Technology: Initiation of Coverage- HAMR Technology Advancement
  • LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?

By Scott Foster

  • Tokyo Electron’s share price dropped 18% on Friday following the announcement of weak Q1 results and a huge downward revision to H2 FY Mar-26 guidance. 
  • Push-Outs and/or cancellations of orders due to the uncertainty caused by President Trump apparently caught managment by surprise. Costs also rising as management ramps up capex and R&D.
  • Impact of Trump’s yet-to-be-announced tariffs on semiconductors is still unknown, but 15% base rate on Japan already a negative. 

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium
  • UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
  • ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread

Spindex Potential Privatisation

By Punit Khanna

  • Spindex has announced that they have been approached by a third party on a possible transaction in relation to shares of the company.
  • The discussions are ongoing and transaction may or may not happen
  • We have published insight on 22nd April highlighting that the stock trades below 2x EV/EBDITA and has 60% of market cap

TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Battery cells are the new chokepoint in the global clean energy supply chain, with China still controlling 75%+ of global capacity and exporting under increasingly restrictive terms.
  • Taiwan is emerging as a high-trust, high-precision hub for advanced cell manufacturing, applying its semiconductor model to batteries.
  • With pouch cells gaining traction across drones, robotics, and compact mobility, Taiwan’s lab-to-fab advantage positions it as a future anchor of the U.S. and European energy ecosystems.

Teradyne Transforms Robotics with U.S. Manufacturing Push & Operational Breakthroughs!

By Baptista Research

  • Teradyne, Inc. reported second-quarter results that showed a sequential and year-over-year improvement in its core business areas, led by strong demand in AI compute-related segments.
  • The company posted secondquarter revenue of $652 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.57, both above the midpoint of guidance.
  • Semi Test revenue was $492 million, including $397 million from System-on-Chip (SOC) testing and $61 million from Memory.

PayPal Holdings: Enhancement in Branded Checkout, Payment Systems & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • PayPal Holdings, Inc. delivered mixed results for the second quarter of 2025, displaying both strong growth in certain key segments as well as some challenges.
  • The positive highlights from their results include continued profitability and expanding transaction volumes, driven by strategic initiatives across their platforms.
  • PayPal’s transaction margin dollars increased by 8% excluding interest on customer balances, marking their sixth consecutive quarter of profitable growth, and non-GAAP earnings per share surged by 18% year-over-year.

Boeing Co: Service Expansion Complexity

By Baptista Research

  • The Boeing Company reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed bag of performance indicators, strategic progress, and notable challenges.
  • During this period, Boeing generated total revenue of $22.7 billion, marking a significant increase of 35% from the previous year.
  • This uptick was primarily driven by an increase in commercial airplane deliveries.

Seagate Technology: Initiation of Coverage- HAMR Technology Advancement

By Baptista Research

  • Seagate Technology reported a strong performance for the fiscal fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2025, characterized by significant year-over-year growth in key financial metrics.
  • The company’s results highlighted a 30% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and record gross margins, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of gross margin improvement.
  • This performance was attributed to increased adoption of Seagate’s heatassisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology and a robust demand for nearline products in global cloud markets.

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

By William Keating

  • LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  
  • For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.
  • China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That’s a concern..

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Daily Brief Macro: This Will Not End Well and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • This Will Not End Well, But When?
  • Will the Next Fed Chair Matter That Much to Policy?


This Will Not End Well, But When?

By Cam Hui

  • The U.S. stock market is undergoing a frothy advance. The intermediate trend is bullish but some technical warnings are appearing.
  • We can’t predict the exact nature or timing of a possible market disruption.
  • Investors may find it prudent to opportunistically take advantage of the relatively low implied volatility environment to buy cheap downside protection.

Will the Next Fed Chair Matter That Much to Policy?

By Cam Hui

  • Regardless of who the next Chair will be, the Fed will be faced with a regime characterized by high fiscal deficits and pressure for the Fed to help finance.
  • In all likelihood, the Fed will follow the path of the BoJ of cutting short rates, restarting quantitative easing and yield curve control to suppress long rates.
  • Against this backdrop of fiscal dominance, investors need to re-examine their investment objectives and policies under the new regime.

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Daily Brief South Korea: KT&G Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets


60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
  • Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
  • This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.

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Daily Brief Australia: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor, Santos Ltd, Airtasker and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share
  • Airtasker Ltd – Australian Marketplace a Standout


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Airtasker Ltd – Australian Marketplace a Standout

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
  • ART has reported its Q4 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs accelerating from the positive Q3 FY25 trends.
  • Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a net cash position of $19.1m.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Spindex Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Spindex Potential Privatisation


Spindex Potential Privatisation

By Punit Khanna

  • Spindex has announced that they have been approached by a third party on a possible transaction in relation to shares of the company.
  • The discussions are ongoing and transaction may or may not happen
  • We have published insight on 22nd April highlighting that the stock trades below 2x EV/EBDITA and has 60% of market cap

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Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Electron, Fujitec Co Ltd, Krosaki Harima, Dentsu Inc, Sumitomo Pharma, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Otsuka Holdings, Ricoh Leasing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?
  • [Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
  • [Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done
  • Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up
  • Will the Incorporation of TSR into the Remuneration System Affect Cash Allocation?
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise
  • Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?

By Scott Foster

  • Tokyo Electron’s share price dropped 18% on Friday following the announcement of weak Q1 results and a huge downward revision to H2 FY Mar-26 guidance. 
  • Push-Outs and/or cancellations of orders due to the uncertainty caused by President Trump apparently caught managment by surprise. Costs also rising as management ramps up capex and R&D.
  • Impact of Trump’s yet-to-be-announced tariffs on semiconductors is still unknown, but 15% base rate on Japan already a negative. 

[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat

By Travis Lundy

  • On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements. 
  • The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
  • But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money. 

[Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share. 
  • This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
  • As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

By Brian Freitas

  • The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
  • Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
  • There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.
  • Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.
  • Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.

Will the Incorporation of TSR into the Remuneration System Affect Cash Allocation?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With nearly half of companies listed on TSE having a P/B ratio of less than 1, many investors are likely to question the appropriateness of executives receiving fixed remuneration.
  • Incorporating TSR into the compensation system will likely motivate companies to increase shareholder returns, which is a good thing if it leads to the return of unused cash to shareholders.
  • As long as fixed compensation remains high, there won’t be much incentive to put a lot of cash into growth investments that boost corporate value.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.
  • Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.
  • Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.

Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY82.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 3.4% YoY to JPY4.9bn.
  • SG&A expenses rose 17.5% YoY to JPY7.3bn, influenced by investments in human resources and IT infrastructure.
  • Total operating assets increased 8.6% YoY to JPY1.24tn, driven by growth in finance and operating leases.

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