Daily Briefs

China announced game approval for the July batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
In July, 7 listed companies that we tracked received zero domestic game approval. Having said that, overall sentiment is improving and gaming names have performed well YTD.

GCL Tech (3800): Why Wait?

By Henry Soediarko

Suffering from overcapacity for a while, the company is a beneficiary of the Chinese government policy to consolidate the solar industry.
At 0.6x PBR and a share price at HKD 1.3, far from its high at HKD 4, sounds like a bargain.
Management has conducted one share buy back this year and share price rallied afterwards.

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.

ASML: An Insight Into Its Recent Technological Advancements In EUV & High NA Lithography!

ASML Holding recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong performance amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
The company reported total net sales of EUR 7.7 billion, reaching the upper end of its guidance range.
This was driven by successful revenue recognition of one High Numerical Aperture (NA) system and additional upgrade business, with net system sales amounting to EUR 5.6 billion.

TXN: Good Results, Decent Guidance, the Stock Tanks -13%. The Market Didn’t like the New Narrative.

By Nicolas Baratte

2Q25 results beat Consensus by 5%. 3Q guidance is close to Consensus, so you can’t call that a disappointment.
Very different tone. 1Q management was confident of a cyclical recovery and accelerating growth in 2H25. Now, we have lower growth in 3Q, more disclaimers, 2Q was “too hot” .
The stock was trading at 38x 2025 EPS and 32x 2026 before earnings, a bit of disappointment does crash the stock -13%. This can take weeks to settle down.

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: New Game Emerged for 4Q Launch

By Ying Pan

Local news reported that <Project: Three Kingdom Ncard>, a derivative card game of its <Three Kingdom MDTX> IP, might be released in C4Q25.
<Ncard> fills the air pocket in BILI’s game pipeline. We thus raised BILI’s TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.
We thus raised BILI’s TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.

GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

In anticipation of its merger with Charter Communications (CHTR), Liberty Broadband (LBRDA/LBRDK) spun off its Alaska telecom business (GCI Liberty).
Liberty shareholders received 0.20 shares of GCI Liberty common stock per Liberty Broadband common share. Regular way trading starting on July 15, 2025.
GCI Liberty is the leading telecom provider in Alaska. The remoteness and harshness of the Alaskan landscape provides a moat around its business.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 14/07/2025

By Hybridan

A cloud computing and connectivity provider for financial markets announced the signing of approximately $10m of Proximity Cloud contracts in June and provided an update on trading for the year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25).
Results for FY25 are expected to once more demonstrate significant double-digit growth on the prior year, driven by a strong performance across Beeks’ Private, Proximity and Exchange Cloud offerings.
Revenue for FY25 is expected to have increased by approximately 25% to £35.5m (30 June 2024: £28.5m), with underlying EBITDA growth of 29% to £13.8m (30 June 2024: £10.7m) and underlying profit before tax growth of 41% to £5.5m (30 June 2024: £3.9m).

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rises on Trade Hopes; Tesla Misses and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rises on Trade Hopes; Tesla Misses, Alphabet Beats
HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs
Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech
Healthcare’s Challenge: Antimicrobial Resistance
Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rises on Trade Hopes; Tesla Misses, Alphabet Beats

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. stocks rose on trade optimism, Tesla missed earnings but reaffirmed product plans, while Alphabet beat estimates on strong ad and cloud growth, highlighting AI’s growing impact.
Japan-US tariff agreement drives rally: Trump announces 15% reciprocal tariffs, Japan commits $550 billion US investment, auto tariffs reduced to 15%
Listed Japanese companies are forecast to post an average ROE of 8.5% for FY2025, the lowest in five years

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.
“Rising Suns” stocks are interesting: Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK), PegBio (2565 HK), CaoCao (2643 HK), and Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK).
“Real Treasures” stocks are safe bets: Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK), Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK), CATL (3750 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK), and Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK).

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

By Andrew Jackson

Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.
Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.
Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.

Healthcare’s Challenge: Antimicrobial Resistance

By FNArena

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is often framed as a public health crisis.
But for investors, it represents a systemic, underappreciated risk that can quietly erode value across sectors and portfolios.
As bacteria and viruses evolve to resist treatment, the effectiveness of antibiotics diminishes.

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

By William Keating

According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million
According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units
Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Health Care: GNI Group, Beijing Sinotau International Pharmaceutical Technology, Carlsmed, Cleanspace Holdings Ltd, PMV Pharmaceuticals , Monogram Orthopaedics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks
Sinotau (先通医药) Pre-IPO: A Niche Radiopharmaceutical Player
Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue
Cleanspace Holdings Ltd – Innovator in a specialised global market
PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure
MGRM: Monogram to be acquired by large medical device company Zimmer Biomet.

GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks

By Nicholas Tan

GNI Group (2160 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m from a primary placement (after upsize).
The deal is a small one, representing 2.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 9.0% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sinotau (先通医药) Pre-IPO: A Niche Radiopharmaceutical Player

Sinotau, a China-based clinical-stage biotech, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CICC.
In this insight, we look at the company’s core products, XTR008, XTR006, XTR004, and XTR003, including its mechanism and clinical data.
We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) priced a full-size deal of 6.7mm shares at $15.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $15.00.
There were concerns with the color coming from the book as the underwriters failed to provide price guidance to investors the day of pricing on the deal.
Given that the deal “broke” on day one, we believe investors “may” be turned off by the company in the short term.

Cleanspace Holdings Ltd – Innovator in a specialised global market

CleanSpace Holdings Ltd (ASX:CSX) is a designer and manufacturer of respiratory protection equipment and consumables.
Specialising in powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs), CleanSpace is known for its compact, lightweight, ergonomic units that do away with the need for belts and hoses to provide filtered air to workers.
A scan through competitor websites reveals that belt and hose units remain the dominant design, providing CSX with a real opportunity to take market share (RaaS estimates CSX has ~1.2% of the global industrial market in FY25).

PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure

By Special Situation Investments

PMVP’s market cap is $72m, with $166m in cash as of Q1, offering substantial discount to net cash.
Interim trial results for rezatapopt, targeting p53 Y220C mutation, expected soon; ORR of 30%+ seen as success.
Shareholder pressure significant, with 36% voting against board compensation; potential for strategic review if results disappoint.

MGRM: Monogram to be acquired by large medical device company Zimmer Biomet.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Monogram Technologies (NASDAQ: MGRM) is a medical device company developing a product solution architecture to enable patient-optimized orthopedic implants at scale by linking 3D printing and robotics with advanced pre-operative imaging.
On 5/17/25, the company received clearance from the FDA on its 510(k) submission for its mB s TKA System.
The first live in patient surgery OUS is expected in 2025.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief ECM: GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks
Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform
Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade
Sinotau (先通医药) Pre-IPO: A Niche Radiopharmaceutical Player
Pre-IPO Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group – The Concerns Behind the High Growth
Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue
NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ): Another Private Equity Bust, IPO Closes Nearly Two Points Below Issue
A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks

By Nicholas Tan

GNI Group (2160 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m from a primary placement (after upsize).
The deal is a small one, representing 2.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 9.0% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform

The is an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services.
Reflecting their strong market presence, the Bullish Exchange’s total trading volume since launch has exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2025.
The digital assets space, especially crypto-exchanges, is one that has the strong tailwind from legislation passed by lawmakers which is anticipated to increase adoption from a more institutional investor base.

Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade

Venture Global, Inc.’s IPO was one of the largest capital raises of the year, pulling in $1.75 billion through the sale of 70 million shares at $25.00 per share.
In the months following the IPO, the performance worsened. By April, Venture Global shares had plunged to a low of $6.75, marking a staggering 73% decline from its IPO price.
Regaining credibility will require not only strong quarterly results but also a sustained effort to rebuild institutional confidence.

Sinotau (先通医药) Pre-IPO: A Niche Radiopharmaceutical Player

Sinotau, a China-based clinical-stage biotech, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CICC.
In this insight, we look at the company’s core products, XTR008, XTR006, XTR004, and XTR003, including its mechanism and clinical data.
We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

Pre-IPO Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group – The Concerns Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Based on the successful application of self-developed technology, Boxihe has embarked on a completely opposite path to international brands, highlighting the “cost-effectiveness” in outdoor sports industry, thus achieving high growth.
Creating the next blockbuster and diversifying product portfolios greatly test Boxihe’s operational capabilities, with some uncertainties. Boxihe may face the troubles of finding a new growth point in long term.
Performance growth could remain high in the short term. Post-money valuation after Series B Financing reached RMB2.8 billion.Valuation of Boxihe could be higher than Li Ning but lower than Anta.

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) priced a full-size deal of 6.7mm shares at $15.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $15.00.
There were concerns with the color coming from the book as the underwriters failed to provide price guidance to investors the day of pricing on the deal.
Given that the deal “broke” on day one, we believe investors “may” be turned off by the company in the short term.

NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ): Another Private Equity Bust, IPO Closes Nearly Two Points Below Issue

NIQ Global priced a full-size offering of 50.0mm shares at $21.00 and opened at $20.25 for a loss of 3.6%.
This company is private equity–backed by Advent International. PE-backed companies often are a more difficult sell due to the high level of debt these companies carry.
Typically, “broken IPOs” have an overhang in the short term and we see a scenario where this plays out in this case.

A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

By Sumeet Singh

With a spate of A/H listings already done in the first half and a lot more in the pipeline, we look at some of the trends from the recent listings.
In this note, we will also talk about how the A/H premiums have moved since our last note in March 2025.
Overall, recent A/H listings have somewhat reversed the trend of past A/H listings not doing much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Post Holdings, Doosan Corp, CK Hutchison Holdings, Korea Fuel Tech, General Electric , 3M Co, Fastenal Co, Virgin Australia Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Vestas Wind Systems A/S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp
GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!
3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!
Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?
Can Virgin Succeed This Time?
A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium
Vestas Wind Systems: Initiation Of Coverage- An Insight Into Offshore Wind Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett

As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post – and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

By Brian Freitas

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches

By Arun George

The 145-day exclusivity period between CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) and the BlackRock-TiL consortium for the politically charged ports deal ends on July 27.
The transaction is in limbo as China’s preferred pathway for approval (COSCO is included in the consortium as an equal partner) has several issues.
It is equally probable that the deal will be finalised in some shape or form or fall apart. With shares up 31% and nearing a five-year high, take profits.

Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp

By Douglas Kim

Korea Fuel Tech (123410 KS) is the 41st company in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series.
Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp is a Korean automotive components manufacturer specializing in emissions control systems, fuel system parts, and other auto plastic parts.
Three key investment highlights include key beneficiary of growing demand for carbon canisters used in hybrid vehicles, compelling valuations, and sharp increase in operating margins/ROE.

GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!

General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!

3M Company’s recent earnings presentation highlighted a mixed performance across different metrics, reflecting both strides in operational efficiency and challenges from macroeconomic factors.
With an adjusted earnings per share of $2.16, up 12% year-over-year and surpassing expectations, 3M reported a solid quarter.
Organic sales growth of 1.5% showed a third consecutive quarter of growth across all business groups, demonstrating some resilience despite external challenges.

Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?

Fastenal Company’s Q2 2025 results demonstrated a notable blend of achievements and challenges.
The quarter marked a milestone with sales exceeding $2 billion for the first time, reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year increase.
This growth, the strongest since early 2023, primarily stemmed from strategic market share gains, effective execution of the company’s strategic plan, and incremental pricing actions aimed at countering supply chain cost pressures.

Can Virgin Succeed This Time?

By FNArena

Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.
Australia’s second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.
The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits.

A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

By Sumeet Singh

With a spate of A/H listings already done in the first half and a lot more in the pipeline, we look at some of the trends from the recent listings.
In this note, we will also talk about how the A/H premiums have moved since our last note in March 2025.
Overall, recent A/H listings have somewhat reversed the trend of past A/H listings not doing much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

Vestas Wind Systems: Initiation Of Coverage- An Insight Into Offshore Wind Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!

Vestas Wind Systems A/S has presented its Q1 2025 financial results, showcasing substantial growth and areas of concern.
The company’s revenue for the quarter was 3.5 billion EUR, representing a 29% increase year-onyear, fueled by increased activity and higher average pricing in Power Solutions.
The EBIT margin was marginally positive at 0.4%, attributed to revenue growth and improved project profitability despite typical low seasonal activity.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Rakuten Group, Nickel Industries
UST yields declined for a third straight day, albeit there were few macro catalysts. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST declined 3 bps each to 3.83% and 4.35%, respectively. Equities were mixed, as tech stocks retreated ahead of their earnings releases next week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,310, while the Nasdaq declined 0.4% to 20,893.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Consumer: Prosus NV, Tsi Holdings, Cloud Village, Vishal Mega Mart, DFI Retail Group Holdings, JD.com Inc (ADR), PLBY Group Inc, Taste Gourmet, Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group, Omnicom Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion
Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?
[JD.com, Inc (JD US, SELL, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: Near Term Loss Pressure Imminent
The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2025
Pre-IPO Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group – The Concerns Behind the High Growth
Omnicom Group: An Analysis Of Its Adjusted Client Investments, Brand Focus & Key Growth Catalysts!

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

By David Blennerhassett

Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling.
Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

By Travis Lundy

A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table.
My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Cloud Village (9899 HK)‘s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN)‘s inclusion in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 191m shares (US$312m; 5.8x ADV; 15.4x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
The index inclusion could take the stock higher in the short-term but buyers in the June placement could be looking for an exit.

DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?

By Devi Subhakesan

DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.
Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health & Beauty segment.
On its investor call, DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP) acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, SELL, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: Near Term Loss Pressure Imminent

By Ying Pan

We expect JD.com to report C2Q25 revenue/adjusted operating profit growth of 16%/(63%) YoY, which is 2%/(50%) vs. cons. due to the takeout subsidies.
Despite the surge in new users, we remain skeptical on the ST effectiveness of food delivery (FD) cross-selling. We expect 2025 FD losses at RMB29bn.
We keep JD as SELL and cut TP from US$25 to US$24.

The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback

By Garvit Bhandari

Playboy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLBY) is undergoing a transformation to an asset-light business model centered around its iconic brand, positioning the company for sustainable profitability
The strategy is starting to yield tangible improvements in profitability, as evidenced by its return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
Playboy’s current valuation (2.7x EV/2025 sales) does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential. As licensing continues to scale and margins expand, the company is poised for a meaningful re-rating.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2025

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
We add Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our value conviction list. Read Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady And Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator
Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).

Pre-IPO Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group – The Concerns Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Based on the successful application of self-developed technology, Boxihe has embarked on a completely opposite path to international brands, highlighting the “cost-effectiveness” in outdoor sports industry, thus achieving high growth.
Creating the next blockbuster and diversifying product portfolios greatly test Boxihe’s operational capabilities, with some uncertainties. Boxihe may face the troubles of finding a new growth point in long term.
Performance growth could remain high in the short term. Post-money valuation after Series B Financing reached RMB2.8 billion.Valuation of Boxihe could be higher than Li Ning but lower than Anta.

Omnicom Group: An Analysis Of Its Adjusted Client Investments, Brand Focus & Key Growth Catalysts!

Omnicom Group’s second-quarter 2025 results reflect a mix of steady performance, strategic advancement, and ongoing operational challenges.
Organic growth hit 3%, aligning with company expectations, and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable at 15.3%.
Non-GAAP adjusted net income per share increased by 5.1%, reaching $2.05.

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Jul 24

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?
[7732 JP] KKR–JIC Take-Private of Topcon: Strategic Bet on Digital Eye Care
[JD.com, Inc (JD US, SELL, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: Near Term Loss Pressure Imminent
Tencent/Netease: Zero Approval in July
The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2025
Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp
GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!
GCL Tech (3800): Why Wait?
Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!

DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?

By Devi Subhakesan

DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.
Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health & Beauty segment.
On its investor call, DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP) acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.

[7732 JP] KKR–JIC Take-Private of Topcon: Strategic Bet on Digital Eye Care

By Rahul Jain

KKR and JIC Capital launched a ¥348B (~$2.3B) MBO for Topcon (7732 JP) at ¥3,300/share, offering an ~88% premium.
The deal implies ~78x FY25 P/E and ~37x FY26E P/E—pricing in Eye Care’s high-margin growth while Positioning remains a cyclical drag.
Long term, Eye Care is well-positioned to scale globally as AI diagnostics and SaaS platforms unlock sustained double-digit growth.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, SELL, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: Near Term Loss Pressure Imminent

By Ying Pan

We expect JD.com to report C2Q25 revenue/adjusted operating profit growth of 16%/(63%) YoY, which is 2%/(50%) vs. cons. due to the takeout subsidies.
Despite the surge in new users, we remain skeptical on the ST effectiveness of food delivery (FD) cross-selling. We expect 2025 FD losses at RMB29bn.
We keep JD as SELL and cut TP from US$25 to US$24.

Tencent/Netease: Zero Approval in July

China announced game approval for the July batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
In July, 7 listed companies that we tracked received zero domestic game approval. Having said that, overall sentiment is improving and gaming names have performed well YTD.

The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback

By Garvit Bhandari

Playboy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLBY) is undergoing a transformation to an asset-light business model centered around its iconic brand, positioning the company for sustainable profitability
The strategy is starting to yield tangible improvements in profitability, as evidenced by its return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
Playboy’s current valuation (2.7x EV/2025 sales) does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential. As licensing continues to scale and margins expand, the company is poised for a meaningful re-rating.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2025

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
We add Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our value conviction list. Read Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady And Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator
Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).

Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp

By Douglas Kim

Korea Fuel Tech (123410 KS) is the 41st company in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series.
Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp is a Korean automotive components manufacturer specializing in emissions control systems, fuel system parts, and other auto plastic parts.
Three key investment highlights include key beneficiary of growing demand for carbon canisters used in hybrid vehicles, compelling valuations, and sharp increase in operating margins/ROE.

GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!

General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

GCL Tech (3800): Why Wait?

By Henry Soediarko

Suffering from overcapacity for a while, the company is a beneficiary of the Chinese government policy to consolidate the solar industry.
At 0.6x PBR and a share price at HKD 1.3, far from its high at HKD 4, sounds like a bargain.
Management has conducted one share buy back this year and share price rallied afterwards.

Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 24

Daily Brief Financials: Insignia Financial, Hang Seng Index, Bullish US, Banco BPM SpA, Marsh & Mclennan, DLF Ltd, TMBThanachart Bank, ZKsync, Health In Tech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?
Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform
Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line
Marsh & McLennan’s Latest Earnings: How Economic Agility & Analytics Are Fueling Resilience!
DLF’s Mumbai Re-Entry: A New Era for Premium Real Estate?
Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold
ZKsync Prividium – Compliant, Private, Turnkey Blockchain Infra
India Real Estate: Domestic Demand & Infrastructure Boom – LONG DLF
HIT: Strong Momentum

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

By Arun George

On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction.
The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.

HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?

By Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has reached new highs (25538). Our quantitative model says the index has reached a 75% probability of reversal.
Let’s break down the model’s info: PRICE MODEL 75%, TIME MODEL 75%, combined prob. of reversal is 75%. The fact that both model’s factors are overbought is “bearish”.
Can the index climb higher? Our detailed analysis is in the insight below, together with screenshots from the model.

Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform

The is an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services.
Reflecting their strong market presence, the Bullish Exchange’s total trading volume since launch has exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2025.
The digital assets space, especially crypto-exchanges, is one that has the strong tailwind from legislation passed by lawmakers which is anticipated to increase adoption from a more institutional investor base.

Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UniCredit ends pursuit of BPM: Facing firm resistance from BPM and Rome, UniCredit formally withdraws its bid — closing the door on a deal the market never priced as likely.
Persistent negative spread undermined credibility: The gross spread remained negative from day one, reflecting deep investor skepticism around deal viability, regulatory clearance, and BPM’s willingness to engage.
Strategic implications for both sides: BPM reverts to standalone trajectory amid sector consolidation chatter; UniCredit’s retreat highlights constraints on its inorganic strategy — both political and market-driven.

Marsh & McLennan’s Latest Earnings: How Economic Agility & Analytics Are Fueling Resilience!