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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: ZKsync Prividium – Compliant and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ZKsync Prividium – Compliant, Private, Turnkey Blockchain Infra


ZKsync Prividium – Compliant, Private, Turnkey Blockchain Infra

By Delphi Digital

  • ZKsync Prividium delivers a turnkey, production-ready blockchain solution tailored for institutional adoption.
  • By fusing private execution, robust access controls, and Ethereum’s security guarantees, Prividium eliminates the complexity of custom chain development.
  • Pioneered by Deutsche Bank and Memento, its compliant, permissioned architecture unlocks new design space for tokenization, cross-border payments, and confidential finance.

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Daily Brief Thailand: TMBThanachart Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold


Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

By Victor Galliano

  • The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx
  • On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers
  • Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
  • StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
  • TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
  • CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
  • Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
  • Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line
  • PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure
  • GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive


Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling. 
  • Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
  • On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett


TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table. 
  • My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
  • Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches

By Arun George

  • The 145-day exclusivity period between CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) and the BlackRock-TiL consortium for the politically charged ports deal ends on July 27.
  • The transaction is in limbo as China’s preferred pathway for approval (COSCO is included in the consortium as an equal partner) has several issues.
  • It is equally probable that the deal will be finalised in some shape or form or fall apart. With shares up 31% and nearing a five-year high, take profits. 

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

By Arun George

  • On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
  • The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction. 
  • The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.

Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
  • Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
  • I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.

Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • UniCredit ends pursuit of BPM: Facing firm resistance from BPM and Rome, UniCredit formally withdraws its bid — closing the door on a deal the market never priced as likely.
  • Persistent negative spread undermined credibility: The gross spread remained negative from day one, reflecting deep investor skepticism around deal viability, regulatory clearance, and BPM’s willingness to engage.
  • Strategic implications for both sides: BPM reverts to standalone trajectory amid sector consolidation chatter; UniCredit’s retreat highlights constraints on its inorganic strategy — both political and market-driven.

PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure

By Special Situation Investments

  • PMVP’s market cap is $72m, with $166m in cash as of Q1, offering substantial discount to net cash.
  • Interim trial results for rezatapopt, targeting p53 Y220C mutation, expected soon; ORR of 30%+ seen as success.
  • Shareholder pressure significant, with 36% voting against board compensation; potential for strategic review if results disappoint.

GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • In anticipation of its merger with Charter Communications (CHTR), Liberty Broadband (LBRDA/LBRDK) spun off its Alaska telecom business (GCI Liberty).
  • Liberty shareholders received 0.20 shares of GCI Liberty common stock per Liberty Broadband common share. Regular way trading starting on July 15, 2025.
  • GCI Liberty is the leading telecom provider in Alaska. The remoteness and harshness of the Alaskan landscape provides a moat around its business.

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Daily Brief Australia: Insignia Financial, Cleanspace Holdings Ltd, PointsBet Holdings , Virgin Australia Holdings, Aristocrat Leisure, BHP Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
  • Cleanspace Holdings Ltd – Innovator in a specialised global market
  • PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Overnight Report: Trade Deals, New Highs
  • Can Virgin Succeed This Time?
  • Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 24, 2025
  • BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

By Arun George

  • On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
  • The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction. 
  • The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.

Cleanspace Holdings Ltd – Innovator in a specialised global market

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • CleanSpace Holdings Ltd (ASX:CSX) is a designer and manufacturer of respiratory protection equipment and consumables.
  • Specialising in powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs), CleanSpace is known for its compact, lightweight, ergonomic units that do away with the need for belts and hoses to provide filtered air to workers.
  • A scan through competitor websites reveals that belt and hose units remain the dominant design, providing CSX with a real opportunity to take market share (RaaS estimates CSX has ~1.2% of the global industrial market in FY25).


Can Virgin Succeed This Time?

By FNArena

  • Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.
  • Australia’s second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.
  • The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits. 

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 24, 2025

By FNArena

  • Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges

By FNArena

  • BHP Group’s fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.
  • Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets

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Daily Brief Macro: UK Structurally Unemployed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Structurally Unemployed
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)
  • Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy
  • Crypto Week Unleashes a Bitcoin Blitz and Sparks the Altcoin Catch-Up
  • CX Daily: AI Foray Is Teaching China’s Edtech Firms a Valuable Lesson


UK Structurally Unemployed

By Phil Rush

  • Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
  • That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
  • The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)

By David Mudd

  • HSI poised to break 25k for first time since 2022.  Next resistance 27100.  Hong Kong market outperforming global markets by wide margin since our BUY was initiated in March 2024.
  • Financial, materials and healthcare sectors leading the market higher as tech sector consolidates.  China shares still offer the best valuation metrics in Asia.
  • Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) , renamed Damai Entertainment has seen increased analyst attention as the company becomes the Live Nation Entertainment, Inc (LYV US) of China.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy

By Massif Capital Research

  • Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.
  • Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.
  • Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.

Crypto Week Unleashes a Bitcoin Blitz and Sparks the Altcoin Catch-Up

By Pranay Yadav

  • U.S. “Crypto Week”—GENIUS Act signed, CLARITY + anti-CBDC bills advanced—promises fresh stable-coin liquidity, yet practical impacts will lag the market’s rapid pricing.
  • Bitcoin touched a $123k ATH on $19 bn YTD ETF inflows, while ETH and SOL still sit 20–30 % below prior highs despite Q2 gains of +35% and +24%.
  • Altcoins caught up fast—XRP led the charge, ETH also outpaced BTC, while SOL trailed peers—showing a brisk, uneven rotation away from Bitcoin dominance.

CX Daily: AI Foray Is Teaching China’s Edtech Firms a Valuable Lesson

By Caixin Global

  • AI / In Depth: AI foray is teaching China’s edtech firms a valuable lesson
  • Wells Fargo /: Wells Fargo executive barred from leaving China amid criminal probe
  • Tax /: Chinese investors face 20% tax bill on offshore trading profits

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Daily Brief Singapore: DFI Retail Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?


DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.
  • Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health & Beauty segment.
  • On its investor call, DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP) acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.

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Daily Brief United States: PLBY Group Inc, General Electric , Bullish US, Venture Global LNG, Kinder Morgan, 3M Co, Chevron Corp, Marsh & Mclennan, Fastenal Co, Carlsmed and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback
  • GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!
  • Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform
  • Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade
  • Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!
  • 3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!
  • Chevron Just Won Big: What Its $53 Billion Hess Acquisition & Legal Victory Over Exxon Really Mean!
  • Marsh & McLennan’s Latest Earnings: How Economic Agility & Analytics Are Fueling Resilience!
  • Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?
  • Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue


The Bunny Returns: Playboy’s Market Comeback

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Playboy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLBY) is undergoing a transformation to an asset-light business model centered around its iconic brand, positioning the company for sustainable profitability
  • The strategy is starting to yield tangible improvements in profitability, as evidenced by its return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
  • Playboy’s current valuation (2.7x EV/2025 sales) does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential. As licensing continues to scale and margins expand, the company is poised for a meaningful re-rating.

GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
  • The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
  • In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

Bullish US LLC (BLSH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Powerhouse Global Digital Asset Platform

By IPO Boutique

  • The is an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services.
  • Reflecting their strong market presence, the Bullish Exchange’s total trading volume since launch has exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2025.
  • The digital assets space, especially crypto-exchanges, is one that has the strong tailwind from legislation passed by lawmakers which is anticipated to increase adoption from a more institutional investor base.

Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade

By IPO Boutique

  • Venture Global, Inc.’s IPO was one of the largest capital raises of the year, pulling in $1.75 billion through the sale of 70 million shares at $25.00 per share.
  • In the months following the IPO, the performance worsened. By April, Venture Global shares had plunged to a low of $6.75, marking a staggering 73% decline from its IPO price.
  • Regaining credibility will require not only strong quarterly results but also a sustained effort to rebuild institutional confidence.

Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!

By Baptista Research

  • Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
  • Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
  • The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!

By Baptista Research

  • 3M Company’s recent earnings presentation highlighted a mixed performance across different metrics, reflecting both strides in operational efficiency and challenges from macroeconomic factors.
  • With an adjusted earnings per share of $2.16, up 12% year-over-year and surpassing expectations, 3M reported a solid quarter.
  • Organic sales growth of 1.5% showed a third consecutive quarter of growth across all business groups, demonstrating some resilience despite external challenges.

Chevron Just Won Big: What Its $53 Billion Hess Acquisition & Legal Victory Over Exxon Really Mean!

By Baptista Research

  • Chevron has officially closed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation following a decisive arbitration victory over ExxonMobil, marking one of the most consequential moves in the global oil and gas sector this decade.
  • The long-disputed deal had been mired in uncertainty due to Exxon’s contractual claims over Hess’s stake in the Guyana oil fields—a globally significant resource discovery with multi-decade production potential.
  • However, a panel of international arbitrators sided with Chevron and Hess, clearing the way for the transaction to proceed.

Marsh & McLennan’s Latest Earnings: How Economic Agility & Analytics Are Fueling Resilience!

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh & McLennan Companies reported a solid second quarter with a 12% increase in revenue, a 14% rise in adjusted operating income, and an 11% growth in adjusted EPS, aligning well with their expectations, despite challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • Underlying revenue increased by 4%, with contributions from various business segments including Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman.
  • The company continues to navigate a complex operating environment affected by geopolitical instability, trade wars, extreme weather, and emerging AI opportunities.

Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?

By Baptista Research

  • Fastenal Company’s Q2 2025 results demonstrated a notable blend of achievements and challenges.
  • The quarter marked a milestone with sales exceeding $2 billion for the first time, reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth, the strongest since early 2023, primarily stemmed from strategic market share gains, effective execution of the company’s strategic plan, and incremental pricing actions aimed at countering supply chain cost pressures.

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL): MedTech Makes Uninspiring Debut, Opens Flat and Trades Below Issue

By IPO Boutique

  • Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) priced a full-size deal of 6.7mm shares at $15.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $15.00.
  • There were concerns with the color coming from the book as the underwriters failed to provide price guidance to investors the day of pricing on the deal.
  • Given that the deal “broke” on day one, we believe investors “may” be turned off by the company in the short term.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Doosan Corp, Hyosung Corporation, Korea Fuel Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
  • Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp


Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
  • Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
  • The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
  • Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
  • I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.

Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Fuel Tech (123410 KS) is the 41st company in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series. 
  • Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp is a Korean automotive components manufacturer specializing in emissions control systems, fuel system parts, and other auto plastic parts.
  • Three key investment highlights include key beneficiary of growing demand for carbon canisters used in hybrid vehicles, compelling valuations, and sharp increase in operating margins/ROE. 

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Most Read: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Prosus NV, Waaree Energies, Maxio Technology Hangzhou, LIG Nex1 Co, Japan Post Holdings, Tsi Holdings, Doosan Corp, Cloud Village and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
  • Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
  • Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
  • STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September
  • UK Structurally Unemployed
  • LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
  • StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
  • TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
  • Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
  • Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, there could be 4 changes (including 1 migration) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
  • There is one stock close to inclusion zone and one stock close to deletion zone and price movements over the rest of the month will determine the final changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 30.06bn (US$350m). Six of the eight potential changes will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling. 
  • Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
  • On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the September rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 1.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 983m (US$137m). Passives need to trade between 0.4-1.9x ADV in the potential changes.
  • Both forecast inclusions are newly eligible for index inclusion and the passive buying could provide some support following the drop in the stock price post listing.

UK Structurally Unemployed

By Phil Rush

  • Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
  • That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
  • The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

By Brian Freitas

  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
  • While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett


TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table. 
  • My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
  • Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
  • Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
  • The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Holdings, Tsi Holdings, GNI Group, Topcon Corp, Shimojima and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
  • TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
  • GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks
  • [7732 JP] KKR–JIC Take-Private of Topcon: Strategic Bet on Digital Eye Care
  • Q4 Follow-Up – SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – July 22, 2025


StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett


TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

By Travis Lundy

  • A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table. 
  • My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
  • Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

GNI Placement: Easy to Digest but Not Without Small Cap Pharma Risks

By Nicholas Tan

  • GNI Group (2160 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m from a primary placement (after upsize).
  • The deal is a small one, representing 2.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 9.0% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[7732 JP] KKR–JIC Take-Private of Topcon: Strategic Bet on Digital Eye Care

By Rahul Jain

  • KKR and JIC Capital launched a ¥348B (~$2.3B) MBO for Topcon (7732 JP) at ¥3,300/share, offering an ~88% premium.
  • The deal implies ~78x FY25 P/E and ~37x FY26E P/E—pricing in Eye Care’s high-margin growth while Positioning remains a cyclical drag.
  • Long term, Eye Care is well-positioned to scale globally as AI diagnostics and SaaS platforms unlock sustained double-digit growth.

Q4 Follow-Up – SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – July 22, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Since this is the final year of the current 5-year MTP, focus growth initiatives for FY26/3 are shifting out with a view toward the next MTP.
  • Regarding cash allocation for investments and shareholder returns, in addition to FY26/3 capex plans for IT investment in various key systems, as well as renovation work on the Company’s head office, management announced a new 3-year plan to construct a new mother distribution center in Hyogo Prefecture to cover Western Japan at a total estimated cost of JPY 15bn (internal funds plus bank loans, see P6 for details).
  • At the same time, it added DOE > 3.0% in addition to targeting a consolidated payout ratio of ≥ 50% to its policy on shareholder returns.

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