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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Seres Group , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Contemporary Amperex Technology, PegBio, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely
  • CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List
  • CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut
  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal
  • Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely

By Brian Freitas


CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) priced its H Share at HK$263 to raise HK$35,657.2 million (US$4.6 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 6.6% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Midea Group (300 HK)‘s AH discount of 4.7%.
  • CATL had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio, a China-based near commercial stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$39m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and valuation. We highlight issues of the company.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation is demanding, but the company managed to get support from local government facilitate its listing.

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zhou Liu Fu’s fundamentals would not significantly improve due to the surge in gold prices, but would deteriorate instead due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.
  • The franchise model and declining profit margins have always been the issues. Zhou Liu Fu also has faced dual competition from traditional jewelry companies and emerging jewelry brands.
  • We are not optimistic about Zhou Liu Fu’s performance outlook. Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Toyota Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Matsuya Co Ltd, Kaken Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected
  • [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good
  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?
  • Reasons Why the TSE’s Request to “improve IR System” Seems to Be Ineffective This Time
  • StubWorld: Toyota Industries/Motors, GMO Internet
  • Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector
  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday 25 April, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) released earnings for last year, guidance for this year and a Bloomberg scoop suggested Toyota Motors chairman Akio TOYODA would launch an MBO.
  • In some ways surprising, but activists/”noisy shareholders” and TSE guidance on dual listings caused pressure, and Toyota Motors was trying to walk the good governance walk.
  • I discussed the situation here on Day 1, and here a few days later. Long-only shareholders sold. Today, Kyodo had a follow-up article. Then Nikkei. Looks more solid now. 

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

By Arun George

  • Kyodo news agency reported that Toyota Industries (6201 JP) plans to accept a tender offer by Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, potentially in May or June.
  • The Nikkei reported that Toyota plans to borrow JPY3 trillion to fund the acquisition. These articles provide more clarity on price, composition of the offeror, financing structure, and timeline. 
  • These articles increase the probability of a tender offer around JPY18,515 (JPY6 trillion market cap). At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%.

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

By Travis Lundy

  • On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
  • But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
  • 5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

By Nico Rosti

  • Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
  • Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
  • Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.

Reasons Why the TSE’s Request to “improve IR System” Seems to Be Ineffective This Time

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE plans to mandate the development of IR system, but since most companies disclosed that they have already taken action, fewer companies will move to do something from now on.
  • Analysis of IR disclosure and stock valuations showed that IR disclosure scores did not differ among the five groups of companies by percentage change in Tobin’s Q. 
  • The fact that many companies haven’t been able to provide capital profitability and management strategies that investors seek has led to reluctance to hold briefings to communicate with overseas investors.

StubWorld: Toyota Industries/Motors, GMO Internet

By David Blennerhassett

  • Given recent – and ongoing developments – with Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and GMO Internet (4784 JP), I’m revisiting my NAVs.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group and GMO, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

By Michael Causton


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) witnessed 31% YoY revenue growth in FY25 to ¥94 billion on the back of flurry of one-time upfront payments, resulting in surge in profits too.
  • Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop of 2% YoY to ¥17 billion on patent cliff, while Artz revenue grew 6% YoY to ¥19 billion.
  • For FY26, Kaken expects revenue to fall 6% to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs of revenue loss from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top-selling products.

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Gold, Hinge Health, MNTN, Elevation Oncology , Mckesson Corp, Base Oil, Edesa Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location
  • Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones
  • Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank
  • Hinge Health (HNGE): Growth Surging into IPO, Valuation at Major Discount to 2021 Peak
  • MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – “Netflix of Marketing” IPO; Solid Deal Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry
  • Elevation Oncology’s Strategic Review: Potential Liquidation or Sale Offers 60% Upside Opportunity at $0.28/share
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May
  • Weekly Update (MCK, LBTYA, SNRE, AMRZ)
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May
  • EDSA: Advancing EB06 for the Treatment of Vitiligo


Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

By Patrick Liao

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
  • Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
  • Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  

Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
  • A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
  • Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank

By SmarterMarkets™

  • Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business
  • Scotiabank’s success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business
  • Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank’s success in the gold market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Hinge Health (HNGE): Growth Surging into IPO, Valuation at Major Discount to 2021 Peak

By IPO Boutique

  • The venture-capital backed company set terms for its IPO and will be seeking a valuation cut of more than 50% from its 2021 peak.
  • Their revenue was $123.8 million and $82.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 50%.
  • This IPO has gained a substantial amount of orders as the underwriters are classifying the books as multiple-times oversubscribed. 

MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – “Netflix of Marketing” IPO; Solid Deal Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry

By IPO Boutique

  • Their self-serve software platform enables marketers to precisely target audiences through their MNTN Matched technology and then directly attribute each view to a purchase or other action.
  • Detractors of this IPO may point to the lack of profitability of a company founded in 2009 as well as the immense competition in the space.
  • The company does have a grand vision and a solid core of backers with a manageable deal size.  Furthermore, 19 of the last 25 quarters have produced positive adjusted EBITDA. 

Elevation Oncology’s Strategic Review: Potential Liquidation or Sale Offers 60% Upside Opportunity at $0.28/share

By Special Situation Investments

  • Elevation Oncology’s market cap is $16.5m, trading at a 50% discount to its mid-year cash guidance of $30m-$35m.
  • The company has no debt, $0.5m in payables, $3.7m in accrued expenses, and guided mid-year cash of $30m+.
  • Potential upside of 30%-60% is based on liquidation or buyout scenarios, considering working capital liabilities and cash burn.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.
  • Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.
  • Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.

Weekly Update (MCK, LBTYA, SNRE, AMRZ)

By Richard Howe

  • Before I dig into my regular update, I want to share one chart that caught my eye this week.

  • Colin King did a nice job modeling out Lionsgate RemainCo Stub / Starz valuation from last May to now.

  • Interesting to see that at one point it was trading at a negative $1 price.


Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Asia’s Group II light-grade prices slip vs feedstock/gasoil prices faster than heavy grades and faster than Group I light grades.
  • Supply-demand fundamentals likely to improve for light and heavy grades in coming weeks as plant maintenance draws to a close and demand slows.

EDSA: Advancing EB06 for the Treatment of Vitiligo

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On May 14, 2025, Edesa Biotech, Inc. (EDSA) announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 that ended March 31, 2025 and provided a business update.
  • The company has initiated outreach to potential investigators along with manufacturing-related activities to support U.S. regulatory approval for a Phase 2 study of EB06 in the treatment of vitiligo.
  • Manufacturing of EB06 is likely to be finished in the second half of 2025 such that the company can submit the manufacturing data to the FDA as part of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma
  • A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International
  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Dialog, Gamuda, Sime Darby Property, Inari Amertron, Wct
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tmbthanachart Bank, Scc, Advanced Info Service, CP ALL
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 9th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma.

A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of May 16th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by energy, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International, Cosco Shipping, BYD.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Dialog, Gamuda, Sime Darby Property, Inari Amertron, Wct

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD329m.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Dialog, Gamuda, Sime Darby Property, Inari Amertron, Wct.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD515.1bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD739mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tmbthanachart Bank, Scc, Advanced Info Service, CP ALL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 16th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Tmbthanachart Bank, Scc, Advanced Info Service, CP ALL, Scb X.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,018.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,873mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Ctbc Financial, Quanta Computer.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Tatung, Makalot Industrial, Wt Microelectronics, Gold Circuit Electronics.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Scores 5% Weekly Gain and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Scores 5% Weekly Gain
  • HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Markets Uncertain to Start the Week After Moody’s US Downgrade
  • US Banks – C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy


Ohayo Japan | US Scores 5% Weekly Gain

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks rallied as tech led gains; S&P 500 rose 5.3% for the week, Virgin Galactic jumped 42%, while Novo Nordisk dropped 4% on CEO exit.
  • Nikkei dipped slightly to 37,753 yen, pressured by yen appreciation and negative Q1 GDP, while TOPIX rose 0.09%
  • Orbis Investments opposes Aeon’s takeover and Welcia merger, criticizing the undervalued 11,400 yen offer and unfair share exchange ratio.

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Uncertain to Start the Week After Moody’s US Downgrade

By Andrew Jackson

  • Pockets of strength in US Tech Friday with Coreweave, SMCI, Micron up with semi-caps generally lower after ASML nos.
  • Potential replacements for a NTT Data NKY deletion should continue to find a bid.
  • JP retailers J-Front and Matsuya squeezed sharply Friday after social media post highlights activist involvement.

US Banks – C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&I loans
  • Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&I
  • Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data

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Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro
  • ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM
  • GMO Internet Placement: Extremely Overvalued at the Moment
  • Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro

By Arun George


ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

By Sumeet Singh


GMO Internet Placement: Extremely Overvalued at the Moment

By Nicholas Tan

  • GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)  is looking to sell its 33.4% stake in its subsidiary GMO Internet (4784 JP)  to meet free-float requirements.
  • Shares are very overvalued at the moment and should be worth a mere fraction of its current trading value.
  • We have looked at the company’s deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss the firm’s outlook as well as valuation.

Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • GASTROClear’s clinical application may be limited by doctors’ lack of sufficient trust/recognition. GASTROClear could mainly be commercialized in the non-clinical market in China first. However, the competition is more intense.
  • The dual pressure of lack of medical insurance reimbursement and higher pricing may lead to lower-than-expected market penetration.It’s not easy for Mirxes’ revenue to return to the level of 2021.
  • Short-Term valuation depends on market sentiment, but in long term, it still depends on the commercialization performance and the improvement of cash flow. The IPO pricing is expensive.

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Daily Brief Credit: EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views


EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
  • MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
  • Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
  • Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report


[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History

By Travis Lundy

  • Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan’s effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
  • This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn’t even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
  • We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers

By Arun George


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27th March, Reject Shop (TRS AU), a discount variety store, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canadian outfit Dollarama (DOL CN).
  • Dollarama Offered A$6.68/share, a 112% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the backing of TRS’ largest shareholder, Kin Group (20.8%). 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 23 June, and expected payment on or before the 22nd July. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
  • The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
  • Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy
  • KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%
  • How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back
  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure
  • China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast
  • Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds
  • Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM): Inflection In Q1 2025, More Catalysts To Come
  • PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift
  • SGX Group (SGX SP): Likely More Listings. Triggered by Trade Tensions, Tax Perks


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
  • The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
  • The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.

KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
  • New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
  • We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.

How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back

By Michael Allen

  • Nexon underperformed the software segment by 32% in the past 12 months, and analysts expect earnings to decline over the next 5 years.
  • But the company beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% and the stock lurched 17% the very next day.
  • Nexon’s business is immune to tariffs and tends to perform well in recessions. The company’s pipeline appears to be stronger than anyone imagined.

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 6% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 2% YoY and net profit climbed 9% YoY to ¥46B.
  • Eisai guided for FY26 revenue of ¥790B, flat YoY. Revenue for Leqembi is expected to grow significantly (¥76.5B, up 73% YoY). Operating profit is expected to remain flat at ¥54.5B.
  • Leqembi’s potential market expansion holds promise, especially in the developed economies with the proportion of aged population gradually on the rise and with a dearth of suitable treatment options available.

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

By Nicolas Baratte

  • More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it’s declining in 2025-26. 
  • Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
  • China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Belrise Industries, founded by the Badve family, is a leading auto component maker launching its Rs2,150 crore IPO from May 21–23, 2025, at a price band of Rs85–90.
  • It supplies key chassis and metal parts to top OEMs like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and HMSI, playing a critical role across ICE and EV platforms.
  • While most proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment, high working capital needs suggest leverage could rebuild as the business scales.

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM): Inflection In Q1 2025, More Catalysts To Come

By Sameer Taneja

  • Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported an encouraging Q1 2025 with revenue/operating income up 82%/72% YoY, buoyed by the acquisition of PDS. 
  • Despite acquiring 91.6% of PDS (as of 15 May 2025), the company has net cash and investments of 4.8 bn pesos, representing more than 30% of its current market capitalization. 
  • Trading at 13x PE, with a >6% forward dividend yield, and ex-cash ROCE>20%, the stock is cheap. We believe there is a long runway for growth with multiple catalysts.

PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.
  • PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by >30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.
  • On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.

SGX Group (SGX SP): Likely More Listings. Triggered by Trade Tensions, Tax Perks

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Reported surge in listing interest on SGX (SGX SP) driven by escalating U.S.- China trade tensions and associated geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Singapore’s proactive policy toolkit announced in February 2025  offer issuers both cost savings and regulatory certainty and could play a role in attracting more companies to list in Singapore.
  • An uptick in listings on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) can set off a virtuous cycle, strengthen valuation multiples  and lead to upward revisions to 2026 earnings forecasts.

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Daily Brief Macro: S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest
  • “What-Ifs”
  • What the Trade Détente Means for Investors


S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest

By Cam Hui

  • The bullish recovery of the S&P 500 has been astounding in speed and magnitude.
  • We are upgrading the signal of our Trend Asset Allocation Model from bearish to neutral.
  • In the short run, the rally has left the market extended and it may need to take a breather.

“What-Ifs”

By Thomas Lam

  • What if the proportion of core CPI categories experiencing upward inflation momentum is on the rise?
  • What if the improvement in the more persistent categories of CPI inflation has more-or-less stalled?
  • What if longer-term inflation expectations are no longer wiggling sideways or actually creeping higher?

What the Trade Détente Means for Investors

By Cam Hui

  • The prospect of a Sino-American trade détente has taken recession risk off the table. 
  • The S&P 500 is on course to recover from a bear market, but faces headwinds from policy unpredictability. 
  • Investors should position in a diversified portfolio of global assets and gradually diversify away from USD exposure.

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