Daily Briefs

Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

TV Asahi Placement – Mini Share Buyback Should Buffer Deal

By Nicholas Tan

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$133m from selling their respective stakes in TV Asahi Holdings (9409 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Anjoy Foods (安井) A/H: Needed by Families, But Besieged by Similar Industries and Health Concerns

By Ming Lu

A typical Chinese family needs quick-frozen foods and Anjoy is the largest producer.
Fresh foods and well-done foods compete with quick frozen foods.
Customers are concerned that producers may use too much preservative.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book

By IPO Boutique

Chagee’s order book is heavily influenced from Asian Investors as the deal is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.
The underwriters and company came to market with a manageable size transaction and an attractive valuation.
The geopolitical headwinds, specifically between China and the United States, is forcing many traditional IPO investors to stay on the sidelines.

Quiddity HK Connect Northbound Tracker (Q1 2025 Vs 5 Previous Quarters)

Last August, the mainland exchanges stopped providing data on Northbound positions and trading. They decided to show the data once a quarter.
We decided to add a tool to the repertoire to show this past quarter’s flows per Northbound-eligible stock in a variety of ways.
Click on a name and get the quarterly chart of the desired metric (position, Flow (shares), Flow as % of float or shares out, etc)

Dongwon F&B: Delisting and Incorporation as a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Dongwon Industries

By Douglas Kim

Dongwon Group’s decision to merge Dongwon F&B and Dongwon Industries into one company is a positive move.
Dongwon F&B will be incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongwon Industries and will be delisted.
Post stock swap between Dongwon Industries and Dongwon F&B, the surviving entity (Dongwon Industries) is a likely candidate for KOSPI 200 inclusion in 2H 2025/2026.

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

By Sumeet Singh

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?

By Baptista Research

General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.

Kyberlife lands US$3M to scale regional healthcare marketplace | e27

By e27

The Kyberlife team Kyberlife, a Singapore-based B2B healthcare e-commerce platform, has announced closing a US$3 million investment round.
The funding was spearheaded by local VC firm 5I Ventures, with participation from East Ventures, A2D Ventures, and NUS Alumni Ventures.
The newly secured funding will fuel Kyberlife’s next phase of regional growth, focusing on several key initiatives: Expansion into Indonesia: Kyberlife aims to onboard Indonesian vendors onto its platform, offering them cross-border business growth opportunities.

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Apr 15

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Tsuruha Holdings, Suzuki Motor, Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Posco Future M, AEON Mall, Midea Group, TKP Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX
FSS Bans Arb in Local MM Books: Identifying Opportunities from Short-Term Inefficiencies
Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue
Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set
Midea (300 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Triggers 10% Float Increase in Global Indices for May and June
US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

On Friday, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.
The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon’s stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.
But… all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to raise US$1.2bn by offloading their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor by way of a secondary offering.
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) stock is flat since the announcement of the placement but has underperformed its peers and the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX).
With the placement being less than 5% of the number of shares outstanding, there is unlikely to be any immediate passive inflow which could pressure the stock.

FSS Bans Arb in Local MM Books: Identifying Opportunities from Short-Term Inefficiencies

By Sanghyun Park

The FSS is banning arb trades under the MM book, requiring separate books for any arb positions to keep them distinct from MM flow.
Most local shops lack the resources to set up a separate arb desk. Splitting teams, creating new workflows, and hiring extra staff isn’t feasible given their tight P&L.
Building a tracker for MM dropouts could spot dislocations, as the crackdown creates short-term inefficiencies—if we’re dialed in, there’s alpha to be made.

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue

By Sanghyun Park

All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that’s our cue to act.

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced a share exchange offer by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall’s vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange’s effective date is 1 July.

Midea (300 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Triggers 10% Float Increase in Global Indices for May and June

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Midea Group (300 HK) went public on HKEX on 17 September 2024 and achieved fast-entry in both global indices due to high free float and a market cap of ~$4.5bn.
The 6-month lockup on cornerstone investors expired on 17 March 2025.
The free float is forecasted to increase from ~65% to ~75% for both global indices in May and June 2025 following the lockup expiry.

US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

By Alastair Newton

Donald Trump’s recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.
However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.
This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order

TKP Corporation (3479 JP) is a fascinating little company. It rents space. From people. To people. Then adds on services. Meeting, recruiting, training, seminar, banquet, party, etc rooms.
Last year they bought control of two small businesses to add features. Revenues are up. The new FY suggests revenue growth, OP growth, and now a buyback.
The buyback is the interesting bit. They did one last FY with interesting parameters, and Quiddity has a new tool we are trying out, so we showcase an example here.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life
HK Short Interest Weekly: Pop Mart, Beigene, Xiaomi
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): WHA, SCC
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Mediatek, United Integrated Services

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 11th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by financials, health care, energy and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life, Csc Financial.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Pop Mart, Beigene, Xiaomi

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 3rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Tracker Fund, Pop Mart, Beigene, Hscei Etf, Xiaomi.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): WHA, SCC

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 11th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in WHA Corporation PCL , Siam Cement PLC.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD842.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,406mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, TSMC, Ctbc Financial.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD461.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,277mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Biologics.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Mediatek, United Integrated Services

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Mediatek, United Integrated Services.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?
China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries
Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics
Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood

Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

By Michael Allen

Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.
I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario.
According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Lenovo (992 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK) are the prime beneficiaries of Trump’s tariff exemption.
On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.
There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally.

Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics

By Mark Chadwick

Despite the turbulence caused by Trump’s evolving tariff policies, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded their best weeks since 2023
Apple and other tech firms benefit as Trump’s administration exempts smartphones, computers, and components like semiconductors from a 125% China tariff and a 10% global tariff
Orbis Investments, holding 10% of Tsuruha, opposes its merger with Welcia Holdings, Japan’s top drugstore under Aeon

Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood

By Andrew Jackson

China retaliated against US made chips sending names like TXN, Globalfoundries and Intel lower.
JPM earnings beat, although Dimon warns the Fed will need to step in the fix the Treasury market.
Defence higher on the passing of Trump’s bill may see JP heavies names higher despite uncertainty.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief ECM: Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue
Weekly Deals Digest (13 Apr) – Suzuki, Canvest, Fengxiang, HKBN, Goldlion, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura
Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials
Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform
ECM Weekly (14 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, EBOS, Hengrui Pharma, Zenergy, Chagee, LG India, Huge Dental
Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO Trading – Muted Overall Demand, No Stabilisation

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue

By Sanghyun Park

All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that’s our cue to act.

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Apr) – Suzuki, Canvest, Fengxiang, HKBN, Goldlion, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) secondary offering; DN Solutions (298440 KS), Chagee Holdings (CHA US) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest, Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU).

Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

By Devi Subhakesan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
Chagee’s premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks.
Chagee’s IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.
Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations
Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but “valuation discount” may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.

ECM Weekly (14 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, EBOS, Hengrui Pharma, Zenergy, Chagee, LG India, Huge Dental

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we looked at the possible A/H premium for Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), along with two live deals in Hong Kong .
On the placements front, only Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)‘s shareholders were brave enough to launch a placement in the turbulent markets.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO Trading – Muted Overall Demand, No Stabilisation

By Akshat Shah

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) raised US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Zenergy is an EV and energy storage system battery manufacturer providing integrated battery solutions, encompassing battery cells, modules, packs and battery management systems dedicated to large-scale applications of electrochemical products.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly News & Views and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly News & Views

Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure
Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile
Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tsuruha (3391) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities
What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
“Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio” Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX
Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 Apr 2025); Record Net Buying
A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025): Sharp AH Premia Widening
Merger Arb Mondays (14 Apr) – ESR, Fengxiang, Vesync, Goldlion, Shibaura, Tsuruha/Welcia, Aeon Mall
Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Pre-Con Offer
Strategic Acquisitions, Merger Developments, and Takeover Bids: Key Updates

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

On Friday, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.
The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon’s stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.
But… all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain.

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

“Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio” Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)

In an announcement after the close Friday 11 April, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced their merger ratio, and timing.
The ratio is 0.65 to 1.0, meaning Aeon Mall shareholders don’t get a lot of credit for their real estate. The timing is short-dated. The AGM is end-May. Merger July1.
This may be a tad light, but it is a done deal. Active shareholder base is almost all retail and crossholders+dom passive gets Aeon to 70%.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to raise US$1.2bn by offloading their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor by way of a secondary offering.
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) stock is flat since the announcement of the placement but has underperformed its peers and the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX).
With the placement being less than 5% of the number of shares outstanding, there is unlikely to be any immediate passive inflow which could pressure the stock.

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set

AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced a share exchange offer by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall’s vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange’s effective date is 1 July.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 Apr 2025); Record Net Buying

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first two weeks in April were HK$145bn.
The first two weeks in April were HK$145bn as what appeared to be national team, or equally patriotic buyers, showed up droves to buy financials, energy, telecoms, and big techs.
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but frankly, the only thing that matters is the back and forth by the Donald.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025): Sharp AH Premia Widening

AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion is mild given how much AH is widening again. Two weeks in a row we see a big net move.
For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. They are still widening despite really big net SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expected the right thing to do was hunker down and be flat H/A risk. Hs underperformed As by 3.7% over two weeks so it’s tough to be flat enough.

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Apr) – ESR, Fengxiang, Vesync, Goldlion, Shibaura, Tsuruha/Welcia, Aeon Mall