Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Active Energy Group, Base Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025

By Hybridan

  • The international biomass based renewable energy business, today announced that its European patent application has been allowed under a Patent Application for its innovative “Process for Beneficiating and Cleaning Biomass”.
  • This forthcoming Patent strengthens the intellectual property portfolio underpinning the Company’s CoalSwitch technology, a next-generation solution for producing sustainable biomass fuel.
  • The newly allowed patent application will grant protection in several EU countries reinforcing Active Energy’s innovation in the global biomass industry.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
  • Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
  • Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
  • That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils prices rise versus crude oil/competing fuel prices.
  • Base oils margins rise because of slump in crude oil prices.
  • Base oils premium to VGO previously stayed in relatively narrow range even with round of plant maintenance work and at time of year when demand faces seasonal boost.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could weaken in face of widespread market volatility and slumping crude prices.
  • Any slowdown in demand would be at a time of year when consumption typically gets a seasonal boost.
  • More muted demand would cushion impact of round of base oils plant maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
  • US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
  • Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Hanwha Aerospace, Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies, FuelCell Energy , Atkore Inc, Intuitive Machines , Bwx Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!
  • Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • FuelCell Energy: An Insight into Its Partnership with Diversified Energy & TESIAC & Key Growth Levers!
  • Atkore’s Import Defense Plan Could Protect Margins — A Smart BUY Opportunity?
  • Intuitive Machines: Here’s How Reddit’s Favorite Stock Is Expanding Lunar Delivery Services & Capitalizing On Government & National Security Collaborations!
  • BWX Technologies Powers Ahead with Revolutionary Reactor Development Breakthroughs!

TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In the TOPIX Index, some “low liquidity” names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
  • These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
  • The results for April 2025 liquidity factor removal have been confirmed and we achieved very high hit rates for our High and Medium conviction baskets.

Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
  • The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 121.5m shares at HK$8.27 per share, raising HK$1.0bn (US$130m).
  • The company’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 3-4 years driven by its LFP battery products and fall in lithium carbonate prices have helped turn around profitability.
  • However, our analysis on the company’s valuation shows that JZBT’s IPO is expensive and with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, we would remain on the sidelines.

FuelCell Energy: An Insight into Its Partnership with Diversified Energy & TESIAC & Key Growth Levers!

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy provides a consolidated update for its first fiscal quarter of 2025, which showcases both achievements and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported revenues of $19 million for the quarter, marking an increase from $16.7 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.
  • Despite the revenue boost, FuelCell Energy incurred a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $29.1 million, translating to a loss per share of $1.42, a slight increase from the $1.37 per share loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.

Atkore’s Import Defense Plan Could Protect Margins — A Smart BUY Opportunity?

By Baptista Research

  • Atkore International Group’s first quarter fiscal year 2025 results were broadly aligned with expectations, but there are notable challenges and developments within the company that are influencing its forward-looking guidance.
  • The company reported net sales of $662 million and adjusted EBITDA of $99 million, both within the anticipated range.
  • Adjusted EPS was also near the high end of the forecast at $1.63, despite a 5% decline in organic volume compared to a strong prior-year quarter.

Intuitive Machines: Here’s How Reddit’s Favorite Stock Is Expanding Lunar Delivery Services & Capitalizing On Government & National Security Collaborations!

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Machines captures attention as it reported record revenue and cash flows in strong Q4 and full-year financials for 2024.
  • The space exploration company, which became publicly traded just two years ago, showcased technical capabilities and achievements.
  • However, there are aspects to weigh when evaluating an investment in Intuitive Machines.

BWX Technologies Powers Ahead with Revolutionary Reactor Development Breakthroughs!

By Baptista Research

  • BWX Technologies, Inc. recorded a strong performance for its fourth quarter and full year 2024, with earnings exceeding initial projections and a significant backlog increase.
  • The company achieved records in several financial metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow.
  • The strategic focus on nuclear technology across various sectors, including national security, clean energy, and medicine, positioned BWX Technologies to harness growing market demand.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bestechnic Shanghai , SK Inc, Power Integrations, Ncr Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd, Synnex Corp, DoubleVerify, Tuya Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
  • Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron
  • Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co
  • Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?
  • NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!
  • Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC
  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • TD SYNNEX: 5 Major Risks That Could Undermine Its 2025 Strategy!
  • DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?
  • TUYA: Investor Day Highlights “AI + IoT” Strategy

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
  • We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
  • Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc is selling SK Siltron to cut its 68% debt-to-equity ratio. The sale could reduce borrowings below ₩5T and lower debt ratio to 30-40%.
  • Chey Tae-won’s divorce lawsuit risks his majority stake in SK Inc. Selling Siltron helps raise ₩1T for alimony without touching his SK Inc shares, potentially reducing the holding company discount.
  • SK Inc-SK Square merger is unlikely soon, despite asset sales and preparation on both sides, as SK Square recently reaffirmed no current merger plans. Setting a position now seems premature.

Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss about SK Inc (034730 KS) which is considering on selling the controlling stake of SK Siltron.
  • If SK is successful in selling 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for about 5 trillion won, it could result in more than 3 trillion won cash inflow for SK Inc. 
  • Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 13.9 trillion won (NAV per share of 192,217 won), representing a 61% upside from current levels.

Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?

By Baptista Research

  • Power Integrations, Inc., a company renowned for its high-performance electronic components focused on power conversion, reported its fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a mix of challenges and opportunities.
  • The company’s Q4 revenue reached $105 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year but a sequential decline of 9%.
  • Despite these mixed signals, revenue for 2024 stood at $419 million, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year.

NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • NCR Voyix’s latest earnings offers crucial insights into the company’s strategic position and operational performance over the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported a decline in revenue, notably from its hardware division, aligning with expectations of a challenging market environment.
  • The total revenue stood at $682 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing a significant increase by 75% to $114 million, aided by cost-cutting measures and a focus on recurring revenue streams.

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK’s stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
  • Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
  • Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 

Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd (1860671D CH)  (BYTL) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citic, CBB International.
  • BYTL provides hospitality robotic AI agents, using advanced robotics and AI to enhance customer experiences. Its solutions include physical-interaction robots and AI-driven digitalization systems for streamlined decision-making and operational efficiency.
  • According to the F&S Report, BYTL ranked first globally in 2024 among robotic AI agent companies with multi-layer adaptable robots, leading in concurrent robot operations and total consumers served.

TD SYNNEX: 5 Major Risks That Could Undermine Its 2025 Strategy!

By Baptista Research

  • TD SYNNEX Corporation’s recent financial performance and forward-looking statements offer a mixed picture for investors.
  • On the positive side, the company reported strong growth across several key business segments in its First Quarter of Fiscal 2025 earnings.
  • Gross billings increased by 7.5% year-over-year and by 9.5% in constant currency terms, indicating robust demand for its products and services.

DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?

By Baptista Research

  • DoubleVerify, a company providing digital media measurement solutions, concluded 2024 with several notable achievements and a number of challenges that shape both its financial performance and future outlook.
  • Overall, DoubleVerify delivered substantial growth in revenue, achieving a 15% year-over-year increase to $657 million.
  • This growth was driven by significant momentum across its three main revenue streams.

TUYA: Investor Day Highlights “AI + IoT” Strategy

By Water Tower Research

  • Tuya hosted its Investor Day on April 2, 2025, in Hangzhou, China and provided an update on its evolving “AI + IoT” strategy and its vision for enabling large-scale AI commercialization.
  • The event, attended by nearly 100 institutional and individual investors, featured key sessions including a corporate overview by the CEO and CFO, a deep dive into the AI Agent Development Platform, an introduction to Tuya’s AI system architecture, live demonstrations of AI-powered hardware, and an investor Q&A session.
  • The catchphrase of the event was “With AI, smart hardware finally becomes truly smart.”

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Consumer: LG Electronics India, Chagee Holdings, frontdoor Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Cable One Inc, GameStop, Lululemon Athletica, Pvh Corp, Amsterdam Commodities Nv, McCormick & Company and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest
  • Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
  • Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?
  • Companies May Worked on Raising OP Margin in Minor Ways Without Working on Raising Gross Margins
  • Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?
  • GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!
  • Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam
  • PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 8 April (InPost | Acomo)
  • McCormick Battles Tariff Turmoil With A New Diversification Strategy But Will It Work?

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?

By Baptista Research

  • Frontdoor’s financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects both achievements and challenges for the company as it navigates a fluctuating market environment.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million compared to the same period last year, alongside a notable rise in gross profit margin by 550 basis points to reach 57%.
  • Net income saw a substantial uptick of 40% to $100 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% to $165 million.

Companies May Worked on Raising OP Margin in Minor Ways Without Working on Raising Gross Margins

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Japan’s declining % global GDP and the number of top companies in market capitalization shows that simply boosting profits through yen depreciation left behind the growth speed of global competitors.
  • While many Japanese companies tried to improve profit margins by reducing labor costs and other expenses, few have managed to improve gross profit margins, which relate to their business models.
  • The fact that few companies have taken steps to shift to higher value-added products and services is why the yen rate remains a key factor in stock valuations.

Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Cable One’s recent earnings presented a mixed set of financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2024.
  • The company, while navigating competitive pressures and changes in subscriber programs, managed to demonstrate some resilience in strategies aimed at stabilizing its business.
  • On the positive side, Cable One reported growth in its business broadband revenue by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by rising demand across its carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments.

GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!

By Baptista Research

  • GameStop Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2022 with a noticeable shift toward profitability and efficient operations amidst a challenging retail environment.
  • The company’s transformation over the past couple of years has been a story of significant restructuring and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its financial health and market positioning.
  • A notable positive from the results is GameStop’s turnaround from a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a net income of $48.2 million in the same period of 2022.

Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam

By Baptista Research

  • Lululemon Athletica Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, marking another year of growth, while also spotlighting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week, increased by 8% year-over-year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
  • Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16%.

PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

By Baptista Research

  • PVH Corp’s recent earnings reflects a mix of achievements and challenges in the fiscal year 2024 and sets cautious expectations for 2025.
  • The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, surpassed its initial 2024 guidance both in terms of revenue and non-GAAP EPS.
  • However, it faced a decrease in overall revenue compared to previous years, largely attributed to divestitures and external economic factors.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 8 April (InPost | Acomo)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail to roll out lockers at Sainsbury’s in the UK • Acomo | presents growth and financial strategy at CMD

McCormick Battles Tariff Turmoil With A New Diversification Strategy But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • McCormick & Company recently presented their results for the first quarter of 2025.
  • The report indicated mixed outcomes, with organic sales showing modest growth and some challenges in profitability.
  • The company’s total organic sales grew by 2%, primarily driven by volume and product mix growth.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Storage King, Nikkei 225, Industrivarden , Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47
  • Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts
  • Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47

By Arun George

  • On 7 April, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.47, a 26.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While below NTA (implying a P/NTA of 0.92x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. It represents an all-time high. 
  • A binding offer is conditional on due diligence (expected to take six weeks) and Board recommendation. The Board should work to secure a binding offer closer to NTA.   

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

By Nico Rosti

  • From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
  • Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
  • The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.

Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
  • While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
  • The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Tata Motors, Softbank Group
  • US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington will impose an additional 50% tariff on China effective April 9th, if Beijing does not back down from its 34% retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mr Trump’s post also stated that the US will terminate all talks with China, while commencing negotiations with other countries. Separately, the President told reporters at the White House that he was not looking at a pause on tariffs, but added that “many countries” were seeking negotiations and there would be fair deals in certain cases.

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

By Alec Tseung

  • The saga of CK Hutchison’s Panama Canal Ports sale might also impact FWD due to tensions between China and the Li family.
  • Despite minimal mainland China presence, FWD faces exposure through its significant HK and Macau operations; HK and Macau contributed 40% – 50% of the group’s VNB and operating profits.
  • After FWD’s failed IPO attempts, PCG might consider a strategic sale for liquidity; FWD might offer a good strategic fit to Korean insurers looking to expand to Southeast Asia. 

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher
  • Capex Monetization: Revenue Impact, Margin Expansion Across Companies
  • Where Are We Now? Index Valuations, Earnings Expectations, Where the Bottom Could Be?
  • Tariff: New World Order?
  • Tech Talk: US Tariffs – Possible Impacts on Covered Companies
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds
  • Monday Delight: 07/04/25
  • The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on China Healthcare – The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 7 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell | InPost | B&S Group | TomTom)

Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks ended a volatile session mixed Monday as trade tensions dominated headlines. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a third straight loss
  • Brief hopes of a tariff pause lifted markets midday, but the White House denied the rumor, reigniting uncertainty
  • Oasis Management, a Hong Kong-based activist, disclosed a 5.93% stake in en Japan, acquiring 2.95 million shares for 5 billion yen

Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher

By Andrew Jackson

  • The horse trading continues with Israel bowing to the US and bilateral talks with Japan set to commence imminently.
  • US shippers outperformed given lower oil despite an outlook for lower global trade overall.
  • Samsung numbers beating this morning on strong demand for the Galaxy S25 smartphones and DRAM.

Capex Monetization: Revenue Impact, Margin Expansion Across Companies

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Several companies across industries have commissioned capacity expansions. These completions reflect management’s strong demand outlook and are often precursors to improved financial performance and long-term value creation.
  • The completion of strategic Capex enhances revenue streams and EBITDA margins, positioning companies for sustainable growth, improved financial performance, and greater investor confidence amid evolving market demands.
  • Tracking newly completed capacities helps identify companies entering growth mode. As utilization improves and integration lowers costs, earnings visibility strengthens, supporting upgraded forecasts and potential valuation upside.

Where Are We Now? Index Valuations, Earnings Expectations, Where the Bottom Could Be?

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The S&P and Nasdaq corrections are already large at -20% and do imply an earnings recession. But these corrections started from elevated valuations level. 
  • A 15% earnings decline in 2025 on typical recession valuations multiples (-1 standard deviation) implies another -20% downside. 
  • This is a time to be patient, wait for a policy inflection or a bottom to markets – both can take months.

Tariff: New World Order?

By Henry Soediarko

  • The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports. 
  • Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt. 
  • This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order. 

Tech Talk: US Tariffs – Possible Impacts on Covered Companies

By Water Tower Research

  • Tariffs are the talk of the town in tech. As of April 5, there will be a universal 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US.
  • President Donald Trump also declared that foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency, and his order imposes a reciprocal tariff designed to match the import taxes countries currently have on US products.
  • Technology products could see significant tariffs as the reciprocal tariff hits a number of countries. 

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

By Victor Galliano

  • Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed
  • With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles
  • Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka

Monday Delight: 07/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on China Healthcare – The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected. 
  • As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be “safe haven assets” for investors. 
  • The logic behind tariffs is to attack China’s effective supply and trigger China’s overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 7 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell | InPost | B&S Group | TomTom)

By The IDEA!

  • According to Bloomberg, several private equity parties are looking at a possible takeover of dsmfirmenich ‘s animal feed division.
  • CVC Capital Partners, Apollo, Bain Capital and Lone Star are among those interested.
  • dsm-firmenich announced last year that it would be divesting the division.

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Motors
  • In the US, the March nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased to 228 k (140 k e / 117 k revised p), albeit the February figure was revised downwards to 117 k (from 151 k). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p).
  • Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p) and 3.8% y-o-y (4.0% e / 4.0% p).

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Medco Energi’s performance remained robust in FY 2024, with the company reporting stable earnings but improved cash flows.
  • FCF was positive and net debt declined, supported by the disposal of Medco’s Vietnamese assets.
  • Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was healthy at 2.3x.

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief ECM: Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week. and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind
  • Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: An Updated Comparison with Hansoh
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
  • While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares have still corrected in line with other auto players.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
  • Suzuki’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).

Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Klarna Group, a Swedish fintech company and BNPL provider, filed for an IPO and submitted a registration statement F-1 form with the SEC.
  • The company believes that AI and product diversification will boost profitability in the coming years coupled with aggressive cost-cutting and better underwriting process.
  • However, Klarna delayed its planned IPO due to extreme volatility and Trump’s tariffs, which are a headwind for BNPL players, including Affirm and Klarna.

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: An Updated Comparison with Hansoh

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, had done a comparison between the two.
  • In this note, we looked at the latest results releases from both companies and highlighted granular differences. It is also interesting to compare the relative valuation from a historical perspective.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH)  is looking to raise US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zenergy is an EV and energy storage system battery manufacturer providing integrated battery solutions, encompassing battery cells, modules, packs and battery management systems dedicated to large-scale applications of electrochemical products.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the IPO valuations.

Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha shot down any merger talks between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Energy, saying they’re just going to funnel Energy’s cash straight into Hanwha Aero via a third-party allotment.
  • These confirm no price manipulation for Hanwha Corp; Hanwha Energy will inject cash into Aero at market value, likely driving bullish short-term price action for both Hanwha Corp and Aero.
  • Despite tighter arb opportunities, doubts remain whether Hanwha Aero can raise the remaining KRW 1.6 trillion given a volatile market and the tight timeline.

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff
  • Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
  • MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock
  • Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs
  • Assura in the Crosshairs

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff

By Arun George

  • The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased due to the unfortunate fallout from Trump’s trade war. The HSI closed down 13.2%.
  • We assess the widening spreads of HK’s merger arb situations based on offer structure, preconditions, conditions, and other factors.
  • The deals, ranked in terms of increasing deal risk, are Tam Jai, Soundwill, Vesync, Goldlion, Canvest, ESR, OneConnect, HKBN, and ENN Energy.

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

By Travis Lundy

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) by way of a secondary offering.
  • With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.
  • If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.

Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
  • This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
  • Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

Assura in the Crosshairs

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
  • PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
  • The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.

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