Daily Briefs

In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available.
But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade

With 85% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 10% at the rebalance resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY26.4bn (US$3.6bn). The Information Technology gains at the expense of Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the CSI Smallcap500 Index over the last 6 months. The best part is that the volatility of the trade is very low.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

By Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Nickel Industries, Vedanta Resources, Bharti Airtel
In the US, JOLTS job openings increased slightly to 7.74 mn (7.60 mn e / 7.51 mn revised p) in January, with the job openings rate little changed m-o-m at 4.6%. Layoffs declined for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since June 2024.
Overall, the JOLTS report showed that the labour market was steady in January, albeit demand for labour could soften in the months ahead.

BYD (1211 HK) 2024 Result Preview: Expanding in Domestic Market and 19% Upside Left

By Ming Lu

BYD will release its 2025 annual results on March 24.
The stock price has risen by 38% since our last buy rating on January 6.
However, we believe there is still an upside of 19% for the next twelve months.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals – Future Commercialization Is a Test

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

KJ017 is the first and only recombinant human hyaluronidase to reach NDA stage in China. Bao needs to combine SC Formulations with antibodies. KJ103 may not be a blockbuster variety.
Considering multiple mature FSH products have been on the market for many years and also been recognized by patients, Bao needs to invest in educating the market/patients to accept SJ02.
After Series C+ Financing, Post-money valuation reached RMB4.87 billion. However, we think there could be some uncertainties in terms of future commercialization performance of Bao’s three core products.

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

The tire majors losing volume
Smaller tire makers gaining prominence
Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

Softcare Pre-IPO – Strong Market Penetration but Gross Margins May Be Capped

By Nicholas Tan

Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Softcare (SC) is an international hygiene product corporation engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of baby and feminine hygiene products.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Japan: Proto Corp, Naigai Trans Line, Softbank Group, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Moresco Corp, Kissei Pharmaceutical, CellSource , Frontier Management Inc, CRE Inc/Japan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?
NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop
Stock Splits Meet Many Companies’ Needs to Increase the Shareholdings of Individual Investors
Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): FY25 Looks Stable; Recent Licensing Deals Key To Near Term Growth
CellSource (4880 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update
Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…
CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): 1H FY07/25 flash update

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?

The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia.
On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) has lost nearly 18% of its stock value since February 7th. The stock has been falling for 4 weeks, our model indicates a very oversold condition.
SoftBank’s has a number of strategic investments and initiatives that make it an attractive investment.
Below, we outline key fundamental factors that align with our quantitative model’s view, suggesting the stock is oversold and could be a compelling buy at its current price.

Stock Splits Meet Many Companies’ Needs to Increase the Shareholdings of Individual Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

The increase in stock splits can be attributed to TSE requesting more effective measures from companies after market restructuring and to more companies whose stock prices have risen.
Companies are obsessed with getting individual investors on their side. It seems that the interests of companies and TSE are aligned in conducting stock splits to increase individual investors’ shareholdings.
Now that many companies want to increase the number of individual investors, it may be a good time to resolve the cost issue and consider changing the share unit system.

Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) is a R&D-oriented company that has developed products boasting market-leading shares in Japan, such as fire-resistant hydraulic fluid for the steel and automotive industries and liquid paraffin used as ingredients in cosmetics, with the aim of achieving domestic production of special lubricants.
In recent years, the Company has successfully brought to market water soluble die casting lubricants and environmentally friendly hot melt adhesives.
In addition, it has also gained a leading global share in synthetic lubricants such as high temperature greases and hard disk surface lubricants.

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): FY25 Looks Stable; Recent Licensing Deals Key To Near Term Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 14% YoY jump in revenue during 9MFY25 driven by Beova and Tavneos amidst price revision pressures and generic competition.
The company has reiterated FY25 guidance of revenue rising 14% YoY, with major drugs witnessing growth.
Main trigger point happens to be the in-licensing deal and the sub-licensing agreements the company has signed with various players giving an opportunity to expand its market in near future.

CellSource (4880 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue decreased by 27.6% YoY to JPY849mn, with operating and recurring losses of JPY62mn and JPY61mn, respectively.
Contract processing services revenue fell 16.4% YoY, with orders declining 12.4% YoY to 4,981 in Q1 FY10/25.
Medical device sales revenue dropped 26.7% YoY, while cosmetics sales revenue decreased 65.2% YoY in Q1 FY10/25.

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

By Sessa Investment Research

Frontier Management announced its full-year FY2024/12 results after market close on February 13, 2025.
Net sales came in at JPY 9,265 mn, surpassing the forecast target of JPY 9,000 mn, mainly thanks to an increase in revenue from deals in the M&A Advisory Business.
In addition to this increase in sales, cost-cutting measures in consulting-based businesses proved successful, which helped reduce operating losses from the forecasted JPY 950 mn to JPY 632 mn.

CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): 1H FY07/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY07/25, the company reported sales of JPY22.6bn (-3.9% YoY) and business profit of JPY3.1bn (+124.0% YoY).
The company resolved to support a Tender Offer by SMFL MIRAI Partners and plans to delist its stock.
As of end-January 2025, floor space under management reached approximately 6.6mn sqm with high occupancy rates.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief India: Knowledge Realty Trust and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) looks to raise about US$712m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Axis, BoFA, ICICI, IIFL, JMFin, MS, SBI.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India. KRT covered 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per CBRE report.
The portfolio includes 6 city-center offices and 24 business parks/centers. These assets are spread across 6 cities — Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gurugram, and GIFT City.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Singapore: Eneco Energy Limited, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”
Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”

By Geoff Howie

Eneco Energy plans to diversify beyond airport cargo logistics, aiming for profitable, cash flow-generative businesses through acquisitions.
RichLand Logistics seeks to acquire a warehouse, enhance fleet utilization, and expand its logistics value chain.
Eneco generated S$3.0 million net cash from operations with total equity of S$19.40 million as of 31 Dec 2024.

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

The tire majors losing volume
Smaller tire makers gaining prominence
Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

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Mar 13

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Rio Tinto Ltd, JX Advanced Metals, Indusind Bank, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Proto Corp, Changyou.com, Bestechnic Shanghai , Korea Zinc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds
Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry
IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next
Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling
Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?
Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows
Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade
Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds

On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly.
Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next

The Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock was down 27% yesterday following the announcement of Derivatives Portfolio losses that have wiped out 2.35% of equity.
Foreign investors were big sellers in the last 3 months of 2024. That led to increased foreign room, leading to an index upweight in February and index inclusion in March.
The drop in market cap and free float market cap will see Indusind Bank (IIB IN) deleted from the S&P BSE SENSEX Index in June and the NIFTY Index in September.

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?

The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted

In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available.
But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade

With 85% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 10% at the rebalance resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY26.4bn (US$3.6bn). The Information Technology gains at the expense of Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the CSI Smallcap500 Index over the last 6 months. The best part is that the volatility of the trade is very low.

Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc.
The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Global X Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF (2858 JP) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) year-to-date with a 4.5% advantage, demonstrating strength in sideways and moderately declining markets.
The covered call strategy can be deployed as a tactical standalone in sideways markets or as a relative value approach against a Nikkei 225 short.
For investors anticipating a continuation of the sideways or declining market, the option roll-over on the open of March 14 offers timely entry.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief ECM: Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO
Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation
Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well
AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing – Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Energy, which is 100% owned by the Hanwha Group owner family members, has started the process of going public. Hanwha Energy could complete its IPO in 2025/2026.
One of the scenarios involving Hanwa Energy is that once it completes its IPO, it could merge with Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS).
Hanwha Energy generated revenue of 4.7 trillion won (up 20% YoY) and operating profit of 215 billion won (up 306.5% YoY).

Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement contingent on the primary being fully subscribed.
The deal will be a large one to digest at 58 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 15.3% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

By Akshat Shah

Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.
The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing – Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

By Sumeet Singh

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Silicon Wafers. Is It Time To Invest? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Silicon Wafers. Is It Time To Invest?
Ohayo Japan | Back-To-Back Losses
Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector
Japan Morning Connection: US Respite and UKR News Should Be Enough for JP Upside
Monday Delight: 10/03/25
#117 India Insight: SpiceJet Faces Insolvency Heat, PepsiCo Eyes India Growth, Roshni Nadar Rises
Threats Are Rising. So Here’s How To Invest In Cybersecurity.

Silicon Wafers. Is It Time To Invest?

By William Keating

Worldwide silicon wafer shipments decreased by 2.7% to 12,266 million square inches in 2024, details here. This follows a 14.3% decline in the prior year.
Silicon wafer companies continue to trade at historic lows with two of the top four players sporting P/B ratios of 0.7. Intel’s P/B is presently 0.9. This makes little sense.
The current depreciation headwinds triggered by a huge CapEx splurge from 2021-2024 will turn to tailwinds once demand recovers and built-ahead production capacity stands ready & waiting.

Ohayo Japan | Back-To-Back Losses

By Mark Chadwick

Stocks closed lower Tuesday after volatile trading driven by Trump’s tariff threats. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%
Nissan Motor has appointed Ivan Espinosa, the company’s chief planning officer, as president and CEO effective April 1, replacing Makoto Uchida
Alimentation Couche-Tard has reaffirmed its commitment to pursue its ¥7 trillion takeover of Seven & i Holdings, expressing disappointment over the target’s limited engagement.

Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector

By Odd Lots

Odd Lots podcast announces live show in Washington D.C. discussing the Jones Act and other topics
Tim Opler from Ste discusses China’s role in the pharmaceutical supply chain on the podcast

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan Morning Connection: US Respite and UKR News Should Be Enough for JP Upside

By Andrew Jackson

Risk-On names leading gainers in tech, while consumer disc weak after poor airlines and retailer guidance.
More outlets reporting on NAND hikes are on the way…look for upside for Kioxia and Kokusai Electric.
Puma -10.7% and a weak consumer outlook enough to take the shine off Asics?

Monday Delight: 10/03/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

#117 India Insight: SpiceJet Faces Insolvency Heat, PepsiCo Eyes India Growth, Roshni Nadar Rises

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Spicejet Ltd (SJET IN) faces insolvency pleas from lessors and a former pilot amid deepening financial distress and delayed resolution efforts.
Pepsico Inc (PEP US) plans to double India revenue in five years with focused investments in capacity, innovation, and region-specific strategies.
Roshni Nadar becomes the third-richest Indian after receiving a 47% stake in HCL from her father, Shiv Nadar.

Threats Are Rising. So Here’s How To Invest In Cybersecurity.

By Finimize Research

Cybersecurity is the place where technology, geopolitics, and business strategy meet – and it’s evolving faster than almost any other sector.
Every year, cyberattacks grow more sophisticated, businesses become more dependent on digital infrastructure, and governments step up regulations, making security an absolute necessity, not a luxury.
So when it comes to long-term investment themes that offer growth and resilience, cybersecurity seems like, well, a lock.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Credit: YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

By Leandro Gubler

We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance
YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.
YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Adani Energy Solutions
In the US, treasuries climbed on safe-haven demand and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, amid growing concerns over the US economy. The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 12 bps to 3.89%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.22%. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 81 bps of rate cuts this year, with the first decrease expected in June.
Equities sank on rising economic uncertainty, given rising trade tensions and after US President Donald Trump’s comments that the economy is facing a “period of transition” this year. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% to 5,615, while the Nasdaq slid 4.0% to 17,468.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds
ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons
Baudroie (4413 JP) – Fast Growth, Prime Promotion, and TOPIX Inclusion
Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling
Will a 93% takeover premium spur M&A drama?
De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April
De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds

On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly.
Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions.
We’re half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead.
Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It’s just a question of timing.

Baudroie (4413 JP) – Fast Growth, Prime Promotion, and TOPIX Inclusion

In late November of 2024, Baudroie (4413 JP) announced it would try to move to TSE Prime and that day they announced a 2.76mm share secondary offering and a buyback.
The buyback was a bit less than a quarter of the offering. Fast forward 3mos and in early March the company announced it would move to Prime. Yesterday it did.
That puts the company in line for a TOPIX inclusion in end-April , and likely other index effects later. In the meantime, earnings and guidance are out ~10 April.

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

Will a 93% takeover premium spur M&A drama?

By Money of Mine

Oryx Global Partners teams up with former Kenmare Resources MD Michael Carville for takeover bid
Kenmare Resources operates moma titanium mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest producers
Weak mineral sands market and political upheaval in Mozambique impact company’s operations and valuation, leading to potential takeover bid

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De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

By Arun George

The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote