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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SemiAnalysis’ Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros on the supply/demand dynamics of AI and data centers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SemiAnalysis’ Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros on the supply/demand dynamics of AI and data centers
  • Ohayo Japan | More Tariffs
  • China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Tariff Delay a Tailwind, Tech and Homebuilders Up
  • Could Protectionism Be the Greenest Policy?
  • Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.
  • WTR Biotech Spotlight Podcast Recap – February 13, 2025
  • Tech Talk: AI Investing Questions Is Investing in AI That Different?
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
  • #102 India Insight: India’s Inflation Dips, HPCL-NTPC LNG Deal, SEBI Cracks Down on Brokers


SemiAnalysis’ Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros on the supply/demand dynamics of AI and data centers

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Disclaimer: Podcast does not provide investing advice
  • Discussion on AI, data centers, and electrification trends
  • Concerns about potential oversupply of data centers and energy optimization in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ohayo Japan | More Tariffs

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 adding 1% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.5%. Nvidia and Tesla led the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s rally
  • After hours, Applied Materials (-5%) forecast Q2 revenue of around ¥830bn, below market estimates
  • Carlyle Group will acquire Japanese HR systems provider Kaonavi in a ¥50bn deal, offering ¥4,380 per share, a 120% premium

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Japan Morning Connection: Tariff Delay a Tailwind, Tech and Homebuilders Up

By Andrew Jackson

  • Intel jumping on news of possible fab JV with TSMC for US production 
  • AMAT numbers missed after market on the impact from China curbs. Largely expected but a slight negative for JP SPE to start 
  • Good numbers from Sony with GN&S trending well and Sumitomo Forestry new MTD surprises to the upside. 

Could Protectionism Be the Greenest Policy?

By Pyari Menon

  • Sustained trade wars can unintentionally reduce carbon and GHG emissions and historical analysis suggests achieve climate benefits at least as good as structured climate policies.
  • If trade had grown only as fast as GDP, average reduction in CO₂ emissions over the last decade would have easily matched the Paris Climate targets.
  • Tariffs, driven by economic nationalism, are impactful, easier to implement and gain public support than carbon taxes or CBAM, so should be part of the long-term carbon solution.

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&A) prospects.
  • DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China’s AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market.
  • CGSI has upgraded ISDN to ‘add’ and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.

WTR Biotech Spotlight Podcast Recap – February 13, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • OS Therapies is a clinical-stage cancer immunotherapy company that develops treatments for osteosarcoma and other solid tumors.
  • Lead drug OST-HER2 is in a Phase 2b study for recurrent, fully resected, lung metastatic osteosarcoma.
  • The company recently acquired the Listeria-based immunotherapy platform underlying OST-HER2, also gaining clinical programs for lung and prostate cancers.

Tech Talk: AI Investing Questions Is Investing in AI That Different?

By Water Tower Research

  • Investors are rightfully looking at AI investments, but it can be difficult to find the right ones.
  • They might be just straight big tech companies like Google or Microsoft, or they might be private, like OpenAI. So, what should investors look for in SMID-cap AI stocks?
  • First, the fundamentals of investing still apply. Investors need to consider business fundamentals (revenue growth potential is critical), market position (watch the competition), management (the ability to handle the inevitable ups and downs of a SMID-cap tech company), and valuation (relative to its peers is a good place to start).

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.
  • We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.
  • We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. 

#102 India Insight: India’s Inflation Dips, HPCL-NTPC LNG Deal, SEBI Cracks Down on Brokers

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s retail inflation fell to a 5-month low in January due to easing food prices, while industrial production growth slowed.
  • Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN)  has signed an initial agreement with NTPC Ltd (NTPC IN) to explore LNG sourcing, aiming to support India’s rising gas-based power generation.
  • Sebi’s regulatory crackdown on risky derivatives trading has caused a major revenue hit for Indian online brokerages, with trading volumes down 70%.

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Daily Brief ECM: Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small
  • Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind
  • CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview
  • Takasago Thermal Engineering Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance
  • Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma
  • SailPoint Inc (SAIL): Upwardly-Revised, Upsized IPO Falls Flat on Day One
  • Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO
  • Aegis Vopak Pre-IPO: Expanding Rapidly but Lots of Debt
  • Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah

  • Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind

By Travis Lundy

  • Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
  • Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
  • Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…

CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong exchange. CATL is expected to raise at least US$5 billion.
  • CATL maintained its 36.8% share in the global EV battery market in 2023 and January to November 2024. CATL has excellent fundamentals and improving profit margins. 
  • Major risk factors include additional tariffs by the US, recent addition to Pentagon’s blacklist, declining sales in 2024, and lower government subsidies for EVs globally. 

Takasago Thermal Engineering Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance

By Nicholas Tan

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$118m from selling their respective stakes in Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) .
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, we think it is worth a comparison between the two.
  • Both companies are decent biopharma players and are trading at a premium to other pharmaceutical company peers. Upon comparison, we think Hengrui’s H should be at a premium to Hansoh.

SailPoint Inc (SAIL): Upwardly-Revised, Upsized IPO Falls Flat on Day One

By IPO Boutique

  • SailPoint traded below the issue price for the majority of its first trading session and hit a low of $20.77 before rebounding to a $22.00 print at the close 
  • The deal was more than 20-times oversubscribed and upsized its price range while on the road prior to pricing which makes the underperformance even more bizarre. 
  • Given the overhang of the underperforming IPO, we will be downgrading our 30-day forecast.

Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • They are a commercial-stage, wearable medical device and digital healthcare company focused on transforming patient outcomes in cardiovascular disease.
  • As of January 31, 2025, the ASSURE WCD is actively being prescribed by more than 550 hospitals and has been worn by over 17,000 patients.
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the last week of February or the first week of March. 

Aegis Vopak Pre-IPO: Expanding Rapidly but Lots of Debt

By Nicholas Tan

  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN)  is looking to raise about US$415m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Aegis Vopak (AV) is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Veeda Clinical Research Ltd (3340714Z IN)  (VCRL) is looking to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, CLSA, IIFL, SBI.
  • VCRL is a global contract research organization offering comprehensive drug development services, including non-clinical, pre-clinical, clinical trials, and studies across diverse drug types like generics, biosimilars, and medical devices.
  • The company operates in key global markets, including North America, Europe, and Asia, with a presence in India.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle
  • Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape
  • Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung’s Big Three
  • Kaonavi (4435 JP): Carlyle’s JPY4,380 Tender Offer (121% Premium)
  • StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight
  • Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer
  • Pesa/Talgo: Talgo Takeover Blocked by Spanish Government
  • EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly
  • Magnera: Investment Case is On Track


Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

By Travis Lundy

  • Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in “y.” It is a thing recently. 
  • Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
  • I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There’s another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape

By Arun George

  • Trend Micro Inc. (4704 JP) shares have hit their daily trade limit, following a Reuters report that Bain, Advent, KKR, and EQT AB are potential bidders. 
  • The lack of a controlling shareholder and increased cybersecurity M&A activity support the buyout interest. In 4Q2024, cybersecurity M&A reached the highest quarterly volume in the past three years.
  • The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%- 38% premium to the current price. 

Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung’s Big Three

By Sanghyun Park

  • The FSS will review the subsidiary approval, with final approval expected from the FSC by early April. Market signals suggest a near-100% chance of Samsung Life getting the green light.
  • Samsung’s moves post-Lee Jae-yong’s Feb 3rd ruling signal a major pivot, setting up aggressive value-up plays across Samsung Life, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung C&T.
  • Shoring up Samsung Life’s finances triggers a domino effect, positioning Samsung Electronics and Samsung C&T to follow with their own shareholder-friendly moves.

Kaonavi (4435 JP): Carlyle’s JPY4,380 Tender Offer (121% Premium)

By Arun George

  • Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY4,380, a 121.2% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is attractive due to the high takeover premium, being materially above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and representing a four-year high.
  • This is a done deal, as the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. The tender offer is from 14 February to 31 March (30 business days).

StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight

By David Blennerhassett

  • At an 8% discount to NAV, Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Macquarie’s Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.
  • Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.
  • Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).

Pesa/Talgo: Talgo Takeover Blocked by Spanish Government

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Government-Backed Takeover: The Spanish Government blocked Pesa’s €5 per share bid, clearing the way for Sidenor’s lower €4.8 per share offer, aligning with Basque industrial and political interests.
  • Political Motivations: The intervention is driven by the Spanish Government’s need for Basque nationalist party support in Congress, favoring a regional industrial consolidation over foreign investment.
  • Recommendation Downgrade: With the removal of competitive bidding, Talgo’s valuation should revert to sector multiples, leading to a SELL recommendation and an estimated fair value of €2.50 per share.

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
  • Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
  • The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.

Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Nektar Therapeutics trades at 50% of its cash, with potential upside from its atopic dermatitis treatment and Dapirolizumab royalties.
  • Rezpegaldesleukin’s re-analyzed EASI75 delta is 21%, potentially increasing to 43% due to data anomalies.
  • NKTR’s litigation against Eli Lilly for data misanalysis could result in substantial compensation if settled.

Magnera: Investment Case is On Track

By Richard Howe

  • When I originally recommended Magnera (MAGN) in November, my investment thesis could be summarized as follows: “trough valuation on trough earnings.”
  • And after the company reported earnings, that thesis remains intact.
  • In its most recent quarter Magnera reported y/y sales and EBITDA growth, suggesting that results have troughed.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer
  • Asian Equities: It’s China’s Year – Our “China Twelve” In the Year of the Snake
  • Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom
  • ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.
  • Latent View Analytics Limited: Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis
  • SMIC (SEHK: 00981, SSE STAR MARKET: 688981): Risky to Chase Strength
  • AMETEK: Industrial Excellence – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]
  • DYE & DURHAM LTD (DND.) – Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024
  • Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result


Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer

By Travis Lundy

  • Piolax Inc (5988 JP) is a small, low ROE, over-capitalised autoparts maker mostly making low-moat parts, but they sell A LOT of them. About a gajillion. 
  • They started 100% div payout ratios 3yrs ago, and last year started a new MTMP to pay out 100% and then buy back a lot of stock. Murakami bought 10%.
  • In November they launched a big buyback. Now they are launching a 23.78% Tender Offer Buyback where Murakami-san will sell. Big accretion on forward expectations downgrades. Hmmm… 🤨

Asian Equities: It’s China’s Year – Our “China Twelve” In the Year of the Snake

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.
  • Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.
  • We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.

Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Jack Dorsey’s interest in understanding what was happening in neighborhoods led him to programming
  • The original vision for Twitter was simply to be able to see what friends were doing and share updates
  • The development of new features on Twitter, such as replies, hashtags, and retweets, was driven by how people were using the platform and their needs for public conversation and sharing information.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality. 
  • 1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.
  • Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Link REIT’s HK manager is starting a private funds venture in the market, showcasing a new area of investment and growth potential.
  • Yanlord is looking to sell a half-stake in an Anson Road project for $240M, indicating a strategic move in their property portfolio.
  • Weave Living is expanding its presence in Singapore with 2 new locations, adding a total of 330 units to their portfolio.

Latent View Analytics Limited: Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Revenue rose 37.5% YoY and 9% QoQ, boosted by Decision Point contributions and a major deal win.
  • Robust growth in revenue and EBITDA underscores Latent View’s ability to secure strategic client wins, strengthening its competitive edge in data analytics.
  • Company is tracking towards its $ 100-110 Mn, where they have plan to reach upto $200 Mn in next 3 years.

SMIC (SEHK: 00981, SSE STAR MARKET: 688981): Risky to Chase Strength

By Scott Foster

  • Media reports of a sharp decline in profit linked to trade tensions are not correct. Gross, operating and total net profit all increased from 1Q to 4Q of 2024.
  • Management’s guidance for 1Q of 2025 has sales growth accelerating to 6% to 8% and the gross margin remaining relatively high at 19% to 21%. This looks reasonable.
  • But the shares are near their all-time high and too expensive to chase given the potential negative impact of President Trump’s trade policy. Take profits.

AMETEK: Industrial Excellence – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Ametek is a niche manufacturer of highly engineered products across a broad range of end markets
  • Ametek’s major end markets include Medtech, aerospace/defense, power, automotive, semis/RD, and industrial, with significant diversification

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


DYE & DURHAM LTD (DND.) – Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dye and Durham is a Canadian-listed real estate and business law service provider with a market cap of $1.3 billion
  • Investigation into the company revealed issues such as misleading revenue pull forwards, high churn rates, and a significant drop in log-in traffic
  • Former employees raised concerns about financials, governance issues, and unhappy customers with price increases, leading to a drop in market share.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • There will be significant drop in revenue in FY26 due to the loss of exclusivity of the key product, but company is looking for acquisition & doing R&D.  
  • Natco is focusing on launching the oral version of Semaglutide in the Indian market and is awaiting regulatory approvals for clinical trials.
  • Primary reason of fall in revenue was the absence of sales from a key product.

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Daily Brief Macro: The Hubbub Surrounding January CPI Inflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Hubbub Surrounding January CPI Inflation
  • Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework
  • CX Daily: Falling Yields Pile Pressure on China’s Insurers
  • Actinver Research – AC 4Q24: Stunning close of the year (Quick View)
  • Poor OEM Tire Sales, Robust Replacement In The EU In 2024
  • [ETP 2025/07] Rising U.S. Crude Inventories Weigh on WTI, Henry Hub Soars on Frosty Forecasts
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Feb 2025
  • Philippines: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.5%) in Feb-25
  • Preview: Due February 14 – U.S. January Retail Sales
  • UK: GDP Rebounds From Statistical Low


The Hubbub Surrounding January CPI Inflation

By Thomas Lam

  • The higher than expected headline and core CPI data in January raised concerns regarding the inflation backdrop 
  • But my analysis suggests that the upside CPI surprises were mainly driven by the least persistent categories of inflation
  • For now, the more persistent categories of CPI inflation imply that the improvements in trend inflation are likely to stall    

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

By William Mann

  • A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces – revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
  • Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts – showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
  • Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases – can’t just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  

CX Daily: Falling Yields Pile Pressure on China’s Insurers

By Caixin Global

  • Insurers / In Depth: Falling yields pile pressure on China’s insurers
  • Malaysia /Interview: Malaysia ideally placed for high-tech development, economy minister says
  • AI /: Boost inference to follow in DeepSeek’s footsteps, AI veteran tells Chinese firms

Actinver Research – AC 4Q24: Stunning close of the year (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Sales grew almost 30% YoY to P$65bn, well above our estimates and consensus, on the back of solid pricing as volume grew 3.5% YoY –volumes were positive across most of the categories, and sales in local currency grew 12.7% YoY–.
  • Profitability expanded solidly starting at the gross profit.
  • Gross margin of 48.2% was slightly below our estimates yet expanded YoY and QoQ.

Poor OEM Tire Sales, Robust Replacement In The EU In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sharp decline in heavy OEM commercial vehicle tire production in 2024
  • China PCLT tire import volume into EU up 50% since 2019
  • EU extends tariffs on Chinese truck and bus tires

[ETP 2025/07] Rising U.S. Crude Inventories Weigh on WTI, Henry Hub Soars on Frosty Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 07/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 4.1m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 100 Bcf for the week ending 07/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 90 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.8% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP’s Q4 net profit fell 48.5% QoQ and missed estimates by 2.5% due to weak refining margins. Chevron plans to trim workforce by 20% to cut costs. 

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Feb 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • U.S. government spending inefficiencies under scrutiny, but political resistance remains strong.

  • Inflation remains high, delaying expected interest rate cuts and fueling public frustration.

  • India’s CPI drop hints at potential RBI rate cuts; Philippines keeps rates steady amid peso concerns.


Philippines: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.5%) in Feb-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BSP held its key rate at 5.75%, contradicting market expectations of a 25bp cut, citing persistent global economic uncertainties and a stable inflation outlook.
  • Inflation risks for 2025 and 2026 are balanced, though upside pressures from utilities and downside risks from lower rice tariffs remain.
  • The BSP signalled a cautious, data-dependent approach to easing, with future rate cuts contingent on further clarity regarding inflation trends and global economic developments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Preview: Due February 14 – U.S. January Retail Sales

By Alex Ng

  • We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline.
  • The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
  • January retail sales are sensitive to weather with January 2023 producing a strong rise that was subsequently corrected, and a harsh January 2024 seeing a decline that was subsequently reversed.

UK: GDP Rebounds From Statistical Low

By Phil Rush

  • GDP defied dovish expectations by surging 0.4% m-o-m, flipping the expected sign on Q4 to grow by 0.1% q-o-q amid broadly positive performances across industry and services.
  • We called November the statistical bottom amid residual seasonality, which is turning higher into what should be a more resilient H1 again. That call remains on track.
  • Statistical noise misled dovish rate views into seeing a spurious fundamental weakness. A lack of follow-through should allow cuts to end after a final one in May.

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Daily Brief Australia: Westpac Banking, ADX Energy Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk


EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
  • Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
  • The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities.
  • One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production.
  • ADX has more than tripled the number of these prospects within its revised acreage positions at ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II, holding 100% WI in the new prospects.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): 245% Reserves Replacement Ratio. 2C Resources ~x2.5. Decommissioning down by 35%


Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): 245% Reserves Replacement Ratio. 2C Resources ~x2.5. Decommissioning down by 35%

By Auctus Advisors

  • • YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 50 mmbbl (up from 38 mmbbl at YE23).
  • This represents a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 245%, significantly above our expectations of ~100%.
  • • The reserves revision reflects (1) upward revision of STOIIP estimates (the high achieved recovery factors suggest that the volumes initially in place had been underestimated), (ii), positive drilling results which reflect Valeura’s application of advanced drilling and completion technologies including geosteering and inflow control and (iii) better well performance with lower decline rates than initially estimated.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, Hana Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung’s Big Three
  • Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)


Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung’s Big Three

By Sanghyun Park

  • The FSS will review the subsidiary approval, with final approval expected from the FSC by early April. Market signals suggest a near-100% chance of Samsung Life getting the green light.
  • Samsung’s moves post-Lee Jae-yong’s Feb 3rd ruling signal a major pivot, setting up aggressive value-up plays across Samsung Life, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung C&T.
  • Shoring up Samsung Life’s finances triggers a domino effect, positioning Samsung Electronics and Samsung C&T to follow with their own shareholder-friendly moves.

Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

  • Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
  • We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term
  • Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development capex only US$3-5 mm. FY25 debt repayment reduced by US$2 mm.


Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Gas development capex only US$3-5 mm. FY25 debt repayment reduced by US$2 mm.

By Auctus Advisors

  •  FY25 oil production is expected to be 1,000-1,200 bbl/d with 8-12 work-overs costing US$0.04-0.07 mm per well (total of US$0.32-US$0.84 mm).
  • This in line with our expectations (1,150 bbl/d production and ~US$1 mm capex).
  • The capex requirement to reach first gas in 1Q26 at SE MGH based on modular LNG is now estimated at US$3-5 mm (we assumed US$5 mm).

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Poor OEM Tire Sales, Robust Replacement In The EU In 2024


Poor OEM Tire Sales, Robust Replacement In The EU In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sharp decline in heavy OEM commercial vehicle tire production in 2024
  • China PCLT tire import volume into EU up 50% since 2019
  • EU extends tariffs on Chinese truck and bus tires

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