Category

Daily Briefs

Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Alkem Laboratories Ltd, PegBio, Aardvark Therapeutics, CSL Ltd, Shofu Inc, GSK , Mckesson Corp, Novo Nordisk A/S and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update
  • Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term
  • PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
  • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Caution Needed Ahead of Small-Cap Obesity Biotech IPO
  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained
  • Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact
  • GSK Plc.: Will its Broader Vaccine Portfolio & International Expansion Strengthen Its Competitive Position Internationally?
  • McKesson Corporation: Growth in Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) to Solidify Its Competitive Advantage!
  • Novo Nordisk: Can This $11 Billion Expansion Solve Its Wegovy and Ozempic Supply Crisis & Give It An Edge Over Eli Lilly?

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
  • In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
  • Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) has announced twin acquisitions in medical devices and dermatology space. The acquisitions will further strengthen Alkem’s positioning in the domestic market.
  • Alkem has reported Q3FY25 result, with mainstay domestic business showing 6% YoY growth. EBITDA margin improved to 22.5% (Q3FY24: 21.3% and Q2FY25: 22.0%).
  • Alkem’s inclination toward acute and NELM segments has been a reason for its historically cheaper valuation. However, with portfolio expansion toward high-margin chronic segment should place Alkem for re-rating.

PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio, a China-based biotech company, plans to raise up to USD 150 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we examined the company’s core product namely PB-119.
  • In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s key products.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Caution Needed Ahead of Small-Cap Obesity Biotech IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • We believe exercising caution based upon the small market cap of the company and the existing backers is the prudent play at this time.
  • Aardvark Therapeutics develops novel, small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases.
  • Their lead product candidate is an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain TAS2Rs expressed in the gut lumen and have initiated a Phase 3 trial for hyperphagia associated with PWS.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

By Tina Banerjee

  • For H1FY25, CSL Ltd (CSL AU) reported net profit of $2.01B, up 6% YoY, missing estimate of $2.07B. Underlying profit (NPATA) grew 3% YoY to $2.07B.
  • H1FY25 revenue increased 5% YoY to $8.48B. Solid performance from CSL Behring and CSL Vifor was partially offset by negative impact from CSL Seqirus.
  • The company has reaffirmed FY25 underlying profit guidance of $3.2–3.3B at constant currency, up 10–13% YoY. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 5–7% YoY at constant currency.    

Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Demand for Shofu’s competitive Chemical products continue to drive overseas growth and improve the sales mix, with 58.6% of total Q1-3 FY3/25 sales derived overseas.
  • Reported quarterly Q3 FY3/25 GPM and OPM have declined QoQ, but these were due to one-time events, resulting in a robust underlying trend indicating that the business is becoming more profitable whilst still investing in business expansion.
  • The weak yen has been a tailwind, but the company has maintained FY3/25 guidance. With no end-loaded costs expected for Q4 FY3/25, we maintain our earnings estimates.

GSK Plc.: Will its Broader Vaccine Portfolio & International Expansion Strengthen Its Competitive Position Internationally?

By Baptista Research

  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has reported its 2024 financial results, highlighting both positive trends and areas of concern for potential investors.
  • A detailed overview of GSK’s performance and strategic initiatives underlines key aspects that can inform an investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, GSK’s transformation post-demerger into a biopharma-focused company is evident through robust growth in specialty medicines, which now form a significant portion of the company’s portfolio.

McKesson Corporation: Growth in Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) to Solidify Its Competitive Advantage!

By Baptista Research

  • McKesson Corporation’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call reveals a mix of robust financial performance and strategic advancements, balanced by certain challenges.
  • The company achieved an 18% revenue increase to $95.3 billion, with a notable 16% growth in adjusted operating profit, reaching $1.5 billion.
  • This performance was bolstered by strong contributions from the U.S. Pharmaceutical and Prescription Technology Solutions segments, underscoring the company’s operational strength and its diversified business model.

Novo Nordisk: Can This $11 Billion Expansion Solve Its Wegovy and Ozempic Supply Crisis & Give It An Edge Over Eli Lilly?

By Baptista Research

  • Novo Nordisk delivered a strong financial performance in 2024, with a 26% rise in both sales and operating profit, driven by its blockbuster diabetes and obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy.
  • The company reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations, largely due to pricing adjustments in the U.S. The results eased investor concerns over a potential slowdown in the obesity market, particularly after rival Eli Lilly’s recent sales miss.
  • Novo’s stock surged 3% in European trading and 3.4% in premarket U.S. trading following the earnings report.

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Financials: Samsung Life Insurance, Paragon REIT, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Industrivarden and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M
  • Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP): Cuscaden Peak’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
  • EQD | Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • Industrivärden’s FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
  • A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
  • If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap. 

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP): Cuscaden Peak’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) announced a privatisation proposal from Cuscaden Peak at S$1.0033 per unit (S$0.98 cash per unit and the 2H FY2024 distribution of S$0.0233 per unit).  
  • The offer price is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent privatisations.  It represents an all-time high. 
  • No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. At the current price and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/4.6%. 

EQD | Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) is set to announce its 2025 Half Year Results on 12 February.
  • Option prices suggest a 2.4% move in either direction, which is less than the historic move of 3.4% over the past six announcements.
  • Traders can trade the event through 13 February 2025 listed options (weekly expiration).

Industrivärden’s FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
  • Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
  • My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).

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Feb 12
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , Guming Holdings, Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, Shimano Inc, United Arrows, Bassett Furniture Inds, Ford Motor Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Unilever Nigeria and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals
  • Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand
  • Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
  • Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?
  • Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook
  • United Arrows Rising Again
  • Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 4QFY24 Adj. EPS of $0.24 Beats Our Estimate
  • Ford Motors’ New EV & Hybrid Strategy & New Restructuring Plan – Will It Pay Off?
  • Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 February (AkzoNobel | dsm-firmenich | Unilever)

Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals

By Ming Lu

  • We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results. 
  • We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.
  • We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.

Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings, the leading mid-priced milk tea player in China, has priced its IPO at the top-end and upsized it to 182.6 mn shares, raising a total of HKD1.8 Bn. 
  • With strong HK retail investor demand, International investors bidding for Guming stock in the IPO had their allocations scaled back to 56.5% from 90% earlier.
  • Guming will list at the HK stock exchange today and could likely see a good  uptick upon listing given robust investor demand.

Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

By Clarence Chu

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation’s financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 reveal a period of cautious resilience amidst both internal challenges and external pressures.
  • The company’s operating income for the first half of the fiscal year was recorded at JPY 2.4642 trillion, closely matching the figures from the same period last year, despite hurdles including production halts due to certification issues and the incremental costs associated with addressing these disruptions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q4 Risks Remain: Market conditions deteriorated in late 2024, and key data points suggest a potential miss on Q4 earnings expectations.
  • Focus on 2025 Outlook: Investors should shift attention to Shimano’s guidance, capital allocation strategy, and potential shareholder return initiatives in the coming year.
  • Long-Term Value: Despite short-term uncertainties, Shimano’s strong fundamentals and disciplined strategy position it well for sustainable growth and high returns.

United Arrows Rising Again

By Michael Causton

  • United Arrows spent a few years in retreat as a succession of problems around e-commerce, Covid and merchandising hit sales.
  • Instead, competitors like the unlisted retailers, Baycrews and Mash Holdings, took greater share thanks to innovative ideas and new chains mixing fashion, lifestyle and food.
  • United Arrows now claims the backend fixes are complete and it is starting to expand again, with new chains and target segments, both at home and overseas. Can it succeed?

Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 4QFY24 Adj. EPS of $0.24 Beats Our Estimate

By Water Tower Research

  • 4QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.24 beat our estimate of ($0.08) on much stronger-than-expected margins despite the continued weakness in industry-wide demand.
  • Revenue was down 13.7% in wholesale and 8.3% in retail, as tough industry conditions persist, driven by the persistent slump in housing (a traditional driver of demand in residential furniture) and subdued spending on home improvement in the face of the post-lockdown exuberance.
  • Nonetheless, a few bright spots were apparent, as retail orders were down only 0.6%, orders for outdoor furniture were up 33% (on a relatively small base), and e-commerce was up 27% (similarly, on a small base). 

Ford Motors’ New EV & Hybrid Strategy & New Restructuring Plan – Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor Company is navigating a challenging financial landscape with a mix of growth and setbacks.
  • The company reported record revenue of $185 billion in 2024, marking its fourth consecutive year of topline growth, primarily driven by strong demand in its truck and commercial vehicle segments.
  • The F-Series retained its position as the best-selling pickup truck in the U.S., and the Ranger continued to expand globally.

Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Engagement begins only when there is a common understanding that “the management goal is to increase corporate value and shareholder interest.
  • Because of differences in the level of understanding among listed companies, not all companies are able to smoothly discuss solutions to management issues based on the same common understanding.
  • While ROA improved moderately, ROE improved slightly, indicating that more and more companies are committed to shareholder returns.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 February (AkzoNobel | dsm-firmenich | Unilever)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Berger Paints steps aside from the race for Akzo Nobel India • dsm-firmenich | to sell its stake in Feed Enzymes Alliance to Novonesis for EUR 1.5bn • Unilever | believed to be close to a deal on the acquisition of Wild

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief ESG: The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred

The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Investors want to see if management can be entrusted with strategies to increase certainty of achieving plans, to build foundations for growth to expand corporate value, and to manage company.
  • The problem is that the disclosed contents of the mid-term management plan do not include necessary information, or the goals themselves are not what investors are looking for.
  • Before disclosing medium-term management plans, companies should estimate how much return on capital can be achieved by the plan and how much the corporate value and stock price will be.

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: Cut in Personal Taxes Can Lead to Surge in Consumption & GDP Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report: Cut in Personal Taxes Can Lead to Surge in Consumption & GDP Growth
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rebound as Investors Look Past Tariff Threats
  • Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market
  • WTR Ethanol-Carbon Capture & Storage Primer
  • Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)
  • Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing
  • Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)
  • Hardman & Co Insight: The October 2024 Budget – We got it wrong
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)

Thematic Report: Cut in Personal Taxes Can Lead to Surge in Consumption & GDP Growth

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Reduction of personal income tax can lead to an additional aggregate income of INR 1 Lakh crores, which can create additional consumption of INR 5 lakh crores; uplifting GDP.
  • USA and China are the good cases studies where such kind of consumption boom happened
  • With India at inflection point of $2000 GDP, discretionary consumption set for boom.

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rebound as Investors Look Past Tariff Threats

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped nearly 1%, driven by a 3% surge in Nvidia.
  • Japan posted a record-high current account surplus of ¥29.26tn in 2024, up 29.5% year-on-year, driven by strong returns on foreign investments
  • Elon Musk and investors bid $97B to acquire OpenAI, aiming to restore its non-profit mission, amid legal battles with CEO Sam Altman.

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

By Rikki Malik

  • Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
  • In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival
  • Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy

WTR Ethanol-Carbon Capture & Storage Primer

By Water Tower Research

  • Will carbon capture & storage (CCS) enable a boom in low- carbon ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)?
  • CCS involves capturing CO2 emissions, purifying, transporting, and permanently storing in geological formations underground.
  • Low- carbon ethanol and SAF offer among the most compelling opportunities for CCS and are worth attention as (1) ethanol carbon capture is among the lowest-cost CCS applications,

Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

By Andy Fu

  • As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
  • Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
  • We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;
  • However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;
  • Meituan’s milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Passenger Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Continuing the trend from December’24, wholesale volume growth in Jan’2025 remained strong in the passenger vehicle segment. This was driven by channel filling, and strong rural demand.
  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN),holding approximately 43% market share, reported growth in both the utility vehicle (UV) and compact SUV segments. Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) reported 18% YoY growth.
  • Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) & Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) reported decline in volume growth. Tax initiatives introduced in recent Union Budget are expected to increase demand in medium term.

Hardman & Co Insight: The October 2024 Budget – We got it wrong

By Hardman & Co

  • Our Hardman & Co Insight of October 2024 looked forward to the first Labour Budget for 14 years.
  • The main theme was that, because the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had ruled out increases in taxes on ‘working people’, investors would bear the brunt of any tax increases to fill the alleged £22bn hole in the public finances left to the new government by the Tories.
  • The pain that was going to be suffered was increased by the aim to raise some more to improve public services, so Reeves booked £40bn of tax rises.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 10 February 2025 (Wolters Kluwer | NX Filtration | Corporate agenda)

By The IDEA!

  • Wolters Kluwer Financial & Corporate Compliance (“FCC”) has signed an agreement to acquire Registered Agent Solutions, Inc. (“RASi”) for approximately USD 415m in cash.
  • The acquisition will expand the presence of FCC Legal Services (“CT Corporation”) with small businesses, middle-market companies and law firms in the U.S.
  • RASi serves thousands of customers across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. 

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief ECM: Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
  • Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb. 
  • There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There’re concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&D failure risks.
  • After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.  

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

By Akshat Shah

  • Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) is looking to raise about US$145m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air
  • S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
  • Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
  • Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won
  • Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK
  • Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air

By Sanghyun Park

  • ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
  • Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
  • FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
  • The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend

By Sanghyun Park

  • SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
  • I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
  • The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. 
  • The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
  • We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
  • With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean. 
  • This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
  • There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean. 

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
  • The (then) HK$1.116/share implied scrip price & divvy compared to a book value of HK1.736/share. and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share. At the 22nd January EGM, GNH shareholders backed the Offer.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 7th March,  with new GNH shares trading on the 7th April. The IFA (Veda Capital) botched its peer analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last two weeks spanning the CNY holiday. HK stocks up. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average. 
  • The past two weeks saw Consumer and Financial AH premia drop. Utilities, energy, and Industrials widened slightly on average. Narrow premia AH dropped more than wide premia.
  • AH Premia on average at a new five year low. Some may be foreigners returning to HK. Some may be just drift. Many wide spreads still exist.

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

By Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
  • We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief Credit: Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

By Leandro Gubler

  • We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.
  • We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.
  • Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.

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Feb 11
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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E
  • The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion
  • Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks
  • Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024
  • Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project
  • Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!
  • M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield
  • DXC Technology: Will its Improved Bookings & Pipeline Serve As A Stronger Foundation For Potential Growth?

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
  • TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
  • Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN) is India’s largest solar glass manufacturer having c apacity of 1000TPD in India and 350TPD in Germany. 
  • With the rising demand and government anti-dumping duty support company is increasing 50% capacity in India to 1500TPD in the upcoming 18 Months. 
  • Company also raised INR 700Crs of funds via preferential, 100Crs via equity from promoter and 600Crs via warrants from HNIs and family offices for capex and loan repayment.

Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.
  • A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.
  • Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.

Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
  • The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
  • However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • VET is undervalued, trading at a price target of C$26.00/share with a 20% yield on 2025E levered free cash flow
  • The company plans to grow production and sustain cash flow for another decade, with a strong balance sheet and attractive reinvestment opportunities
  • VET has exposure to European gas pricing, high netbacks, and slow decline rates, with management committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)’s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
  • First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.
  • Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. 

Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!

By Baptista Research

  • Columbia Sportswear Company’s fourth quarter and full-year financial performance for 2024 presented a mixed picture rooted in market dynamics and strategic initiatives.
  • On the earnings call, the company leadership, including CEO Tim Boyle, highlighted achievements in inventory management, cost savings, and international market growth, while acknowledging challenges faced in North American market conditions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 earnings today. Both revenue and OP grew YoY as well as beat consensus estimates. Most of revenue growth came from the ELAN acquisition.
  • Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while there has been a slight improvement in Overseas earnings during the quarter.
  • Though the overall declining trend in m3’s earnings has eased, we expect the earnings growth to remain weak. ELAN’s margins have continued to deteriorate.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • We present our outlook for Taste Gourmet’s (8371 HK) FY25 earnings, which will be announced in mid-June. We estimate revenue growth of 21% and net profit growth of 13%.
  • The mainboard listing catalyst is still in play with the company at the query stage with the SFC Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play.
  • Based on our earnings preview, the stock trades at 5.5x FY25PE, 2x EV-EBITDA, with 35% of the market cap in cash and a 10% dividend yield. 

DXC Technology: Will its Improved Bookings & Pipeline Serve As A Stronger Foundation For Potential Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • DXC Technology showed promising third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, driven by effective operational changes and strategic initiatives.
  • The company reported revenue, adjusted EBIT margin, and non-GAAP EPS above its forecast expectations.
  • Revenue declined by 4.2% year-over-year on an organic basis, while the adjusted EBIT margin increased to 8.9%, reflecting a year-over-year expansion.

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Feb 11
0

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025
  • The Economic Impact of Tariffs
  • Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?
  • We Answer an Open Q&A
  • Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001
  • [Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/06]: Bullish Momentum, But Correction Looms
  • France: Temporary Reprieves
  • India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts
  • Banxico (Bank of Mexico) Review: 50 Bps Cut as Expected

Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
  • It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
  • This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.

The Economic Impact of Tariffs

By The Bid

  • Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
  • The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
  • The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?

By At Any Rate

  • Debate surrounding potential increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe, with uncertainty of timing and magnitude of flows
  • Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US all have vested interests in potential negotiations for increased pipeline gas flows
  • Impact on European natural gas balance and global gas balance if increased Russian pipeline flows were to manifest, with current base case price forecast for TTF market in 2025 and 2026 without embedding increase in Russian natural gas flows

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

We Answer an Open Q&A

By Money of Mine

  • The outlook for copper in the near term is positive, but the market interest in copper may mean higher prices
  • Investing in copper may be expensive due to high demand and M&A activity in the sector
  • Finding a pure play copper company of significant scale on the ASX may be challenging, with considerations of China’s impact on copper demand and production levels in mind.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001

By William Mann

  • The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
  • Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
  • Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.
  • Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.
  • GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/06]: Bullish Momentum, But Correction Looms

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore Futures rose by $2.25/ton, closing at $107.30/ton on Feb 7, after trading within a $5.50/ton range, the widest in recent weeks.
  • Strong demand from steel mills, a weaker U.S. dollar (-0.4%), and supply risks from Rio Tinto port clearances drove iron ore prices higher.
  • Prices trade above key moving averages, with RSI nearing the overbought zone (65.08), suggesting a potential correction in line with historical post-CNY trends.

France: Temporary Reprieves

By Alastair Newton

  • Following last year’s political drama in France, the Bayrou government successfully passed a 2025 budget last week.
  • The smooth passage of the budget is likely a temporary political reprieve.
  • This situation does not factor in the probable fiscal impact of potential US tariffs.

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • RBI cut its policy rate by 25bp on 7th Feb’25. With inflation set to moderate substantially over the rest of CY25, we expect another 75bp of rate cuts by Aug’25. 
  • Delhi election results on 8th Feb’25 saw resounding BJP victory after 27 years. Urban governance, a major focus of Budget’25, will be bolstered in Delhi and Mumbai, India’s largest cities. 
  • With the policy rate at 5.5% by Aug’25, and substantial income tax cuts boosting PCE, real GDP should return to 8% growth in FY26 (Apr’25-Mar’26). EPS growth will benefit too. 

Banxico (Bank of Mexico) Review: 50 Bps Cut as Expected

By Alex Ng

  • Banxico (the Bank of Mexico) cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, with a cautious stance and a split vote. Inflation has fallen but remains above target.
  • Global risks, including Trump’s tariff threats, add uncertainty. Despite economic weakness, some monetary tightening may still be needed.
  • Banxico plans further 50bps cuts, likely pausing at 8.0%, depending on economic conditions.

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