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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Guming Holdings, DPC Dash, Vital Farms Inc, Noodles & Co, Afya Ltd, Vf Corp, Sligro Food Group Nv, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A, Pvh Corp and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Dpc Dash (1405 HK) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024
  • Vital Farms Inc (VITL) – Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024
  • NOODLES & CO (NDLS) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024
  • WBC Partners Position Overview
  • Vf Corp (VFC) – Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024
  • SLIGR NA – What’s News in Amsterdam – 23 January (Shell | Havas | Dutch consumer confidence)
  • Hopefully, CSDDD Mandates Will Advance Human Rights Efforts, the Weakest Area for Japanese Companies
  • Actinver Research – Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates
  • Pvh Corp – VNCE: P180 Acquires Sun Capital Majority Stake in VNCE; Reiterate Buy, $6 PT


Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
  • In Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.

Dpc Dash (1405 HK) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • DPC Dash is the master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in China, currently operating 768 stores
  • Despite current lack of profitability, DPC Dash has potential to become second largest player in Chinese pizza market in four years
  • Strong leadership team and focus on value for consumers position DPC Dash to capitalize on low number of pizza stores per population in China compared to other key markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vital Farms Inc (VITL) – Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • VITL has experienced significant growth and impressive revenue growth in recent years
  • Bears argue that the company’s growth is unsustainable and its valuation is anomalous
  • Document suggests that shorts may need their theses to play out quickly or risk the company’s valuation doubling

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


NOODLES & CO (NDLS) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Noodles & Co has a stock price of $6.235 and stands to benefit from multiple catalysts
  • These catalysts include forced selling upon removal from the Russell 2000 index and interest from activist investors
  • Despite challenges in the restaurant industry, Noodles & Co has potential to bounce back and exceed expectations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


WBC Partners Position Overview

By White Brook Capital

  • 2024 was a forgettable year for White Brook Capital’s middle capitalization focused fund.
  • Our fortunes have reversed so far in 2025 as several of our portfolio companies have preannounced 4th quarter results and given constructive 2025 guidance.
  • We’ve had a good first 3 weeks of 2025 and are looking forward to a much better year.

Vf Corp (VFC) – Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Darrell took over as interim CEO in August 2021 to stabilize the company and refocus on brand management and innovation.
  • VFC announced a new growth strategy centered around digital transformation, sustainability, and innovation.
  • The company plans to leverage its strong brand portfolio, expand globally, and enhance direct-to-consumer capabilities to improve financial performance and regain market share.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


SLIGR NA – What’s News in Amsterdam – 23 January (Shell | Havas | Dutch consumer confidence)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Shell | Executive Committee changes • Havas | buys Spanish sports marketing agency • Consumer confidence | declined for the 4th consecutive month

Hopefully, CSDDD Mandates Will Advance Human Rights Efforts, the Weakest Area for Japanese Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies have established policies on human capital but haven’t yet implemented specific measures. Solving issues related to human capital is an area in which Japanese companies lag far behind.
  • With even the understanding of diversity within the company in jeopardy, it is unlikely to reach a solution to human rights in the supply chain.
  • Japanese companies have traditionally been active in investing in goods, but have been reluctant to invest in people. Many companies need to start with an understanding of people.

Actinver Research – Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates

By Actinver

  • Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.
  • Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY.
  • Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.

Pvh Corp – VNCE: P180 Acquires Sun Capital Majority Stake in VNCE; Reiterate Buy, $6 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $6 price target and slightly raising our projections after P180, a venture spearheaded by former Vince CEO Brendan Hoffman and Christine Hunsicker (founder of CaaStle, a “Clothing as a Service” provider), acquired Sun Capital’s 65% equity stake in VNCE and restructured and reduced Vince’s Third Lien Facility with an affiliate of Sun Capital.
  • As such, Sun Capital has materially reduced their affiliation with the company.
  • Further, Mr. Hoffman, who was previously Chief Executive Officer of Vince from 2015 to 2020 is expected to return as Vince CEO in February.

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Most Read: Shinko Electric Industries, Cameco Corp, Lotes Co, Korea Zinc, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , IAMGOLD , Insignia Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
  • Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
  • Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
  • Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
  • Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

By David Blennerhassett

  • You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
  • Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
  • IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

By Travis Lundy

  • JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
  • It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
  • Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
  • There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
  • Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
  • It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
  • In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

By Douglas Kim

  • The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
  • One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
  • In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
  • Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
  • Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
  • Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief ESG: Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
  • HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan


Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE is likely to raise the current Growth Market listing criteria of at least 500 million yen in tradable equity market capitalization, probably starting in April 2026.
  • Since listing examinations are already being conducted with the new criteria in mind, IPO reserves are being prepared with a larger market capitalization than before.
  • It is unclear how much will be raised, but companies will prepare for listing by increasing its market capitalization through the use of the secondary market and M&A.

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

By Douglas Kim

  • On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
  • They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
  • The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | WHO >>> Stargate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | WHO >>> Stargate
  • Japan Morning Connection: AI Binge Buying Should Continue in Japan
  • Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (China Talk) on New Semi Regulations
  • Singapore Market Roundup (22-Jan-2025): Food Empire diversifying soon!
  • IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/03]: Uptrend to Persist
  • The Outlook of Indian Pharma Industry in Trump 2.0
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – ARHS 4Q Comps Up, Time at Home Up
  • Emerging Market Exchanges – Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) Stands Out
  • Biopharma Week in Review – January 21, 2025


Ohayo Japan | WHO >>> Stargate

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. announces withdrawal from WHO, citing mismanagement; Focus now on Stargate and AI Healthcare. 
  • Technology shares led the advance, with Oracle and Nvidia jumping 6% and 4% respectively, boosted by Trump’s $500 billion “Stargate” AI initiative announcement.
  • SoftBank Group and OpenAI have commenced construction on the “Stargate Project” in Texas. Initial investments of $100 billion will fund large-scale data centers 

Japan Morning Connection: AI Binge Buying Should Continue in Japan

By Andrew Jackson

  • Big gains in the US semi and DC related should translate into continued upside in Japan despite some BIG gains yesterday.
  • Wire and cable plays are all surging, yet the smaller side of the sector underperforms. Nidec good risk/reward into numbers.
  • HAMR rollout helping Seagate higher should also help memory/HDD component plays.

Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (China Talk) on New Semi Regulations

By The Circuit

  • Jordan Schneider joins Ben Beharon and Jay Goldberg on the podcast Moments to discuss China restrictions drama and semiconductor manufacturing equipment controls
  • They discuss the impact of the new rules on companies like Nvidia and the potential unintended consequences, such as increased regulation for startups and new challenges for cybersecurity
  • Schneider also highlights the importance of the US government’s export control regime in shaping the future of AI innovation and competition between the US and China

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Singapore Market Roundup (22-Jan-2025): Food Empire diversifying soon!

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Food Empire to remain focused on core business while planning for diversification in the near future.
  • HSBC raises Singtel’s target price in anticipation of telecom industry consolidation, showing confidence in the company’s performance.
  • Analysts expect strong 2H2024 earnings for PropNex and increase target price, with no cooling measures on property market anticipated.

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/03]: Uptrend to Persist

By Amrutha Raj

  • SGX IO Futures rose USD 6.75/ton, closing at USD 104.15/ton, driven by strong Chinese economic data and bullish sentiment.
  • SGX IO Futures Feb contract trades 19.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 128.93/ton).
  • SGX IO futures typically rise before CNY, tapering off 10 days after. Exceptions include 2024’s pre and post CNY decline and extended rallies in 2021 & 2022 before sharp drops.

The Outlook of Indian Pharma Industry in Trump 2.0

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Highlight the potential windfall for Indian pharma due to Trump’s “China Plus One” strategy. Emphasize how shifting US supply chains away from China could create significant opportunities for Indian manufacturers.  
  • Focus on Trump’s conflicting goals of boosting domestic manufacturing while lowering drug costs. This inherent tension could benefit Indian generic companies as they offer affordable alternatives.  
  • Emphasize the uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0’s healthcare agenda. This ambiguity keeps investors on edge, creating an opportunity to present insightful analysis and predictions.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – ARHS 4Q Comps Up, Time at Home Up

By Water Tower Research

  • Furniture and furnishings stocks moved sharply higher, as a small-cap rotation on top of generally positive sentiments dominated trading, in what is likely an anticipation of economic gains from the new administration’s policies.
  • The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 5.2%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 7.2%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 4.0%, while the large- cap indexes gained 2.7% and the R2K was up 3.8%.
  • ARHS noted (1) its 4Q24 comps sales were up 6%, reversing the “low single-digit declines” seen in October.

Emerging Market Exchanges – Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) Stands Out

By Victor Galliano

  • We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our core value pick; it has a growing share of data revenues, its post-trade revenues are understated and equity fee pressure is easing
  • We keep Hong Kong Exchange as a buy, with its high share of post-trade revenues; HKEx shares have been highly volatile, but they represent relative value combined with growth potential
  • Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE) and BSE are new additions to our coverage of EM exchanges with PSE being one to watch; MexBolsa is deep value, but lacking a re-rating catalyst

Biopharma Week in Review – January 21, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • M&A and preannouncements led biopharma headlines last week, with nearly $20 billion in deals fueling some positive sentiment, but disappointing updates from LLY (4Q GLP-1 sales miss) and MRNA (lowered 2025 guidance) weighed on the group.
  • CMS released the next set of Medicare drugs for price negotiations, with NVO’s GLP-1 drugs classified as a single agent.
  • JNJ confirmed its ITCI bid, while LLY acquired Scorpion and GSK bought IDRx. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: UMC. Now I’m Interested… and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • UMC. Now I’m Interested…
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity
  • Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?
  • The Bank of Nova Scotia: International Business Realignment Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook
  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers
  • PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Taiwan cable cut raises concerns.
  • MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives


UMC. Now I’m Interested…

By William Keating

  • UMC reported Q424 revenues of NT$60,386 million, flat sequentially and in line with guidance.
  • For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to NT$232,303 million, representing an increase of 4.4% YoY.
  • Share price at a 4 year low and the outlook is still tepid, but almost $6 billion CapEx invested during the downturn years will pay dividends in the coming years..

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game. 

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
  • Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
  • The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

The Bank of Nova Scotia: International Business Realignment Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) released its fourth quarter results for 2024, indicating a year of both progress and challenges as the institution implements its new enterprise strategy aimed at sustainable, profitable growth and maximizing shareholder value.
  • The bank’s 2024 results reflect modest earnings growth, consistent with its expectations and guidance shared during its Investor Day.
  • On the positive side, Scotiabank reported progress in increasing primary client numbers, an essential element of its growth strategy.

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
  • The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages. 
  • Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.  

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
  • Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
  • Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
  • The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
  • With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
  • The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
  • During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Taiwan cable cut raises concerns.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan cable cut near China raises concerns about geopolitical tensions and gray zone tactics in the region.
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SoulBrain’s collaboration on advanced glass substrates aims for mass production by 2027.
  • India drives semiconductor aspirations with GaN and SiC technology, showcasing its commitment to technological advancements in the industry.

MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
  • The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
  • The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development, Softbank Group
  • In the US, treasuries climbed slightly yesterday, amid a lack of macro news and as President Donald Trump held back from implementing tariffs on his first day in office. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 1Y UST declining 1 bp to 4.28%, while the 10Y fell 5 bps to 4.58%. Similarly, equities rose on the back of optimism that Mr Trump’s policies will boost US corporations.
  • This came after he unveiled a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group, Open AI and Oracle Corp (see comment below). The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,049, while the Nasdaq was up 0.6% at 19,757.

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Daily Brief ECM: Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea
  • Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth
  • Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks
  • HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
  • SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)
  • Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?
  • Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX): IPO Terms Set for Medical Device Company Aiding Insulin Patients
  • Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. (SION): Biotech for Patients with Cystic Fibrosis Filed for IPO


Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.  
  • New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date. 
  • Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs. 

Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

By IPO Boutique

  • The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
  • It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
  • The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) (VEL) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects.
  • According to CRISIL Report, VEL has experienced fastest growth in profitability, with a 236.94% CAGR growth in PAT and a 130.02% CAGR growth in EBITDA between FY22 to FY24.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

By Sumeet Singh

  • HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)

By IPO Boutique

  • SailPoint, a company that delivers solutions to enable comprehensive identity security for the enterprise, filed for an IPO. 
  • SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo who took the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
  • As of January 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, their ARR was $374.6 million, $520.1 million, and $681.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%, 39%, and 31%, respectively.

Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.
  • Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.
  • With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.

Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX): IPO Terms Set for Medical Device Company Aiding Insulin Patients

By IPO Boutique

  • Beta Bionic, Inc. set terms for an IPO that could raise up to $120 million
  • The IPO is led by Bank of America Securities and is scheduled to debut on Thursday, 1/30.
  • The company’s product, iLet Bionic Pancreas, was approved by the FDA in May 2023 and posted $44.7 million in sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.  

Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. (SION): Biotech for Patients with Cystic Fibrosis Filed for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Biopharmaceutical company on a mission to revolutionize the current treatment paradigm for cystic fibrosis filed for IPO.
  • Company’s NBD1 stabilizers, are both in Phase 1 healthy volunteer trials in Australia to evaluate their PK profile, safety and tolerability.
  • RA Capital, TPG’s the Rise Fund, Atlas Venture, OrbiMed and Enavate Sciences are all among existing investors.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
  • GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
  • Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
  • Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
  • StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
  • Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole


Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

By Travis Lundy

  • JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
  • It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
  • Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

By David Blennerhassett


Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
  • Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
  • Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
  • It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
  • In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. 
  • Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

By Sanghyun Park

  • HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
  • HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
  • The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas


Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

By Douglas Kim

  • The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
  • One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
  • In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

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Daily Brief Macro: The Drill: Strap in for Trump and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Drill: Strap in for Trump
  • Reasons To Underweight China
  • Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004
  • CX Daily: Chinese Drugmakers Find Fertile, but Challenging Market in Indonesia
  • Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production


The Drill: Strap in for Trump

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
  • While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
  • Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
  • Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
  • Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann

  • Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
  • They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
  • Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


CX Daily: Chinese Drugmakers Find Fertile, but Challenging Market in Indonesia

By Caixin Global

  • Drugmakers / In Depth: Chinese drugmakers find fertile, but challenging market in Indonesia 
  • GDP /Chart of the Day: Over a dozen Chinese provinces set lower GDP targets
  • Metals /: LME approves Hong Kong as delivery hub in boost for China’s metal trade

Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
  • SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
  • Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production  

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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance
  • Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production


Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings has announced that it will tie up with BYD (1211 HK) to source 50,000 EVs for its ride-hailing fleet, which will help to address car and driver shortages.
  • Drivers will be able to buy the vehicles at favourable prices, with competitive financing packages. Grab’s technology will be built-in to improve driver performance and provide data to improve services. 
  • Grab is also stepping up its efforts in insurance, winning general insurance licences in Singapore and Malaysia, allowing it to offer tailored insurance products to drivers initially but customers later.

Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
  • SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
  • Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production  

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