
In today’s briefing:
- Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization
- Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won’t Block. Buy Here & On Weakness
- Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move
- Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand
- SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add
- Bloks Group (325 HK): Bumper Listing; Index Inclusion Timeline
- Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding
- BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?
- HMM’s Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays
- Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Some Thoughts About the Privatization
- For Fosun, every major capital operation is the result of careful consideration after a long time. If it is a deal that Mr. Guo fully supports, there’s basically no problem.
- For the privatization, the board of directors of Henlius has no special opposition. We think that this privatization would have no impact on the operation of Henlius in the future,
- As the phenomenon of undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change, the Cancellation Price is attractive for most investors. There’re risks if choosing Share Alternative. Cash Alternative is preferred.
Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won’t Block. Buy Here & On Weakness
- Ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)’s continued buying in the market.
- After the close of market last Friday, LVC held 7.8295%, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.
- Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They’re in for the back-end scrip option.
Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move
- The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
- There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions.
- I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.
Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand
- Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
- It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
- Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.
SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them.
- Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
- There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.
Bloks Group (325 HK): Bumper Listing; Index Inclusion Timeline
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) was massively oversubscribed, traded 82% higher on Friday and closed its listing day 40% higher than the IPO price.
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) now has a full market cap of US$2.7bn. However, lock-ups and cornerstone allocations result in a much lower free float.
- Index inclusions could take place in August and September, but the passive buying is a fraction of the number of shares that will come off lock-up expiry in early July.
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding
- The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
- The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.
BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?
- BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is a high-growth consulting company. This year sees 22% annual revenue growth and 25% OP growth to Feb 2025. Q3 results come out tomorrow.
- The stock has a fairly large and concentrated active institutional holder base, though interestingly, the foreign active insto base is very long-tailed. LOTS of investors hold this.
- The company is likely to see an index inclusion imminently which will over time mean a buy of more than a third of Maximum Real World Float.
HMM’s Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays
- To stay in the Value-up index by June, HMM needs to maintain high ROE, but with 2023’s dip and a 2024 estimate around mid-10%, they’ll be borderline in the rankings.
- Local markets expect HMM’s dividend payout to range from 840 KRW to mid-1,000 KRW, with a yield of 4.5% to 8%, while futures show mild backwardation in February and March.
- HMM may finalize the dividend and announce the record date by late January, with the record date likely in mid to late February.
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO
- After wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU) announced – and subsequently rejected Bain’s A$4.00/share Offer, CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with its own A$4.30/share NBIO.
- IFL have yet to reach an opinion on CC Capital bid. And to make things interesting, Bain has sweetened its Offer to $4.30/share, matching CC Capital’s terms.
- What now? Either, IFL opens the data room to both parties. Or rejects both. I think they should engage.