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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Inari Amertron, Horizon Robotics, United Microelectronics Corp, Lumen Technologies, Kyocera Corp, Team Internet Group , Take Two Interactive Software, Inc, U-Blox AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market
  • Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
  • Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.
  • Team Internet Group – Two potential bids at 125p
  • Take-Two Interactive Software: Expansion In The Mobile Gaming Sector As A Pivotal Growth Engine! – Major Drivers
  • U-Blox Holding (UBXN) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024


EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
  • Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
  • A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
  • Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
  • There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

By Patrick Liao

  • United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
  • We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
  • It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.

Lumen Technologies Shakes Up the Industry with a Strategic Consumer–Enterprise Split! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies’ third-quarter 2024 performance outlines its strategic efforts and current challenges as it navigates a transformative phase to reposition the company within the digital networking and AI infrastructure sectors.
  • The company reported a revenue decline, reflecting ongoing headwinds from legacy business sectors, even as it strives to pivot its offerings toward newer, more competitive markets.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffs
  • Kyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profits
  • Toyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future

Team Internet Group – Two potential bids at 125p

By Edison Investment Research

Team Internet’s board yesterday confirmed that it has received two separate acquisition proposals from TowerBrook Capital Partners and Verdane Fund Manager. Each proposal offers 125p per share in cash, with an option for shareholders to choose an unlisted equity alternative.


Take-Two Interactive Software: Expansion In The Mobile Gaming Sector As A Pivotal Growth Engine! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Take-Two Interactive Software has demonstrated a robust performance in its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results.
  • The company reported net bookings of $1.47 billion, aligning with the higher end of its guidance range.
  • This performance was notably driven by the continued success of key franchises such as Grand Theft Auto and Borderlands.

U-Blox Holding (UBXN) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • High-margin and growing Positioning business is overshadowed by struggling cellular module business and inventory issues
  • Potential for significant upside if company divests or shuts down struggling business segments
  • New leadership team and activist shareholder involvement indicate strategic shift towards unlocking value of core strengths in GNSS semiconductors and modules, with potential upside of 50-200% and limited downside risk

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Midea Group, Smart Share Global, Dream International, Sony Corp, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Geely Auto, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO
  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
  • Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer
  • Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024
  • Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO
  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration
  • Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires
  • Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24
  • Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)’s Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
  • A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
  • The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO’s US$1.25 Per ADS Non-Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • On 6 January, Smart Share Global (EM US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS, a 74.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$0.72.
  • The offer is unattractive to the IPO price (US$8.50), average sell-side price targets (US$1.87) and historical trading ranges. 
  • Despite the light offer, the shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) as the buyer consortium represents 64.0% of the voting power. A binding proposal will be forthcoming.  

Dream International Ltd (1126) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dream International, a Hong Kong-based company run by a Korean family, has seen significant growth in revenue and earnings per share over the past decade.
  • Despite facing challenges such as theft of funds and holding a large cash pile, the company has shown strong performance with an 18% return on equity over the past 15 years.
  • Trading at a low multiple of earnings and holding a significant cash reserve, Dream International presents an appealing investment opportunity for value investors due to its potential for continued growth and competitive advantages in the market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sony Group Corporation: Can Its Steady Expansion in Music Segment Up Their Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation has exhibited a mix of strengths and challenges in its latest financial results, which provide insights into its current business landscape and future outlook.
  • Positive aspects of Sony’s results are largely attributable to robust performance in key segments like Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) and Music.
  • The company reported a 9% increase in consolidated sales, excluding the Financial Services segment, year-on-year, with operating income showing a significant increase of 57% for the quarter.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
  • The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
  • We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.

Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong Rebound from Covid but with High Concentration

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd (BHV IN) is an owner and developer of hotels in India, focusing primarily on South India, plans to raise about US$107m through its upcoming India IPO.
  • It has a current portfolio of  9 operating hotels, of which, 4, 3 and 2 are operated under Accor, InterContinental, Marriott brands.
  • BHVL intends to use the IPO proceeds primarily to repay debt of INR 4.8bn and to purchase land from the promoter for further expansion.

Suppliers Suffer As Top Brands Make Fewer Tires

By Farah Miller

  • Tire production volumes are declining
  • Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
  • Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 32% in 2024 – BEV Supporting 2H24

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s sales volume grew by 32% in 2024 and management set a growth target of 25% for 2025.
  • BEV boomed in 2H24 and will be the protagonist in 2025.
  • We believe the overseas market will also be promising for Geely.

Improvements Have Expired in Criteria Related to the 2019 Corporate Governance Code Revision

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While companies are eager to improve % of female board members, for which they are required to meet new targets, they are less enthusiastic about raising % of independent directors.
  • The improvement in % of independent directors has been decreasing year by year. As the importance of independent directors increases, it’s necessary to demand increase in this ratio through engagement.
  • For the other evaluation criteria, the median value remained unchanged from the previous year. Meanwhile, some traditional companies have not been able to eliminate the position of ex-CEO advisors.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Hygeia Healthcare Group, X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei), Cocrystal Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation
  • Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects
  • COCP: Phase 2a Trial of CC-42344 Extended


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.
  • Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Growth and Margin Concerns Plague Inherent Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1H24, Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 35% YoY to RMB2,382 million, mainly driven by a 37% YoY growth in hospital business.
  • Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 60bps YoY to 31.8%. Lower government grant led to 230bps operating margin squeeze to 21.6%.
  • The share price of Hygeia Healthcare has gone down almost 56% in the last one year. Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.

Pre IPO X.J. Electrics (Hu Bei) – ODM/OEM Model Is Hard to Deliver High Margins and Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • X.J. ELECTRICS not only relies on export revenue, but also on ODM/OEM models, with a relatively low proportion of independent brands. Such business model would not bring high profit margin.
  • X.J. ELECTRICS’ equity is concentrated in PAN YUN/GUANGSHE PAN, but they have plans to reduce holdings.This makes us feel that actual controllers are more inclined to cash out through IPO.
  • Valuation of X.J. ELECTRICS should be lower than Carote, as Carote has established branded business and its revenue proportion in different regions is also “healthier” than that of X.J. ELECTRICS.

COCP: Phase 2a Trial of CC-42344 Extended

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On December 31, 2024, Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP) announced that the Phase 2a clinical trial of its oral PB2 inhibitor CC-42344 will be continued due to an unexpectedly low influenza infection rate in study participants that were challenged with a H3N2 viral strain.
  • The results from the study showed that CC-42344 had a favorable safety and tolerability profile, however due to the low infectivity rate the virology results were not interpretable.
  • Cocrystal will now work with the clinical research organization to construct an amendment to the trial protocol to extend enrollment in the study and increase the likelihood of a proper infection rate for data evaluation.

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Daily Brief Financials: Solana, LayerZero, Curbline Properties, Central Depository Services, Intercontinental Exchange, Equitable Holdings , Sunac China Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • The Impact of Token Unlock Events on Cryptocurrency Prices: An Empirical Analysis
  • LayerZero Part 3: $ZRO Token
  • Curbline Properties Corp (CURB) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024
  • Central Depository Services (India) Limited (NSE: CDSL) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024
  • Intercontinental Exchange: A Closer Look at Its Diversification into Mortgage Technology & Major Growth Drivers
  • Equitable Holdings: These Are the 6 Game-Changing Forces Shaping Its Performance in 2025 and Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


The Impact of Token Unlock Events on Cryptocurrency Prices: An Empirical Analysis

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Large unlocks (over 1% of circulating supply) significantly impact prices, mainly concentrated in the week before and after the unlock. A 1% token unlock triggers, on average, a 0.3% price drop over the week preceding the unlock and another 0.3% drop over the week following the unlock.
  • The strongest price effects occur two days before the unlock and on the third and fourth days after the unlock. Interestingly, the actual unlock day and the day after show little price impact.
  • The similar magnitude of price drops before and after the unlock suggests that market anticipation is just as influential as the actual selling pressure.

LayerZero Part 3: $ZRO Token

By Animoca Brands Research

  • The $ZRO token was introduced in June 2024, with planned utilities that include protocol governance, transaction fee payment, and staking for DVN security. All three utilities have strong implications for $ZRO’s value.
  • We foresee that the next three years will be marked by a rapid increase in $ZRO’s circulating supply, alongside growing utilization within the protocol and its adoption as a common currency for cross-chain trades.
  • We propose a valuation framework for $ZRO that leverages the Market Cap to Transaction Volume (MC-Tx) ratio, combined with projected transaction volume scenarios. This framework aims to provide readers with a perspective on the relationship between protocol growth and token value.

Curbline Properties Corp (CURB) – Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Curbline is a convenience retail REIT spun-off from Site Centers in 2024, owning 78 shopping centers in attractive markets
  • The company is well-capitalized with $800 million in cash and no debt, allowing for over $1.2 billion in acquisition capacity
  • Convenience retail has lower capital intensity and higher NOI growth compared to traditional shopping centers, making CURB’s fundamentals attractive for investors and expected to continue growing as it scales out of its G&A load

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Central Depository Services (India) Limited (NSE: CDSL) – Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CDSL is a market infrastructure company operating in the Indian equity capital markets with a $2.5 billion enterprise value
  • The company has shown consistent revenue growth over the past decade and listed on the NSE in 2017
  • With strong shareholder support and expected mid-teens CAGR growth, CDSL is seen as a buy and hold investment with potential for outperformance compared to major Indian indices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Intercontinental Exchange: A Closer Look at Its Diversification into Mortgage Technology & Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) reported strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting record net revenues driven by both transaction and recurring revenue streams.
  • The company’s net revenue for the quarter reached $2.3 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase when adjusted for the recent Black Knight acquisition.
  • Transaction revenues achieved a milestone at $1.1 billion, underpinned by a 12% rise in the Exchange segment, and included growth in both the interest rate and energy sectors.

Equitable Holdings: These Are the 6 Game-Changing Forces Shaping Its Performance in 2025 and Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equitable Holdings’ third-quarter results for 2024 reflect a blend of positive growth momentum and calculated financial strategy oversight.
  • The company reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $501 million, which equates to $1.53 per share, marking a significant 34% year-over-year increase.
  • Adjustments for notable items bring non GAAP operating earnings per share to $1.59, an increase of 22% compared to the previous year.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
  • In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
  • Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Weimob, Byd Electronic, Meituan, Baba
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Samsung Biologics
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 3rd): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 3rd.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Kasikornbank, SCC.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Weimob, Byd Electronic, Meituan, Baba

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 27th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Weimob, Byd Electronic, Meituan, Baba.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Samsung Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jan 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD3.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Biologics (207940 KS).

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 3rd): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 3rd which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,009.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,298mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry.

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Daily Brief ESG: Reducing Cross-Held Shares Is Precisely What Is Needed to Promote Management Change and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Reducing Cross-Held Shares Is Precisely What Is Needed to Promote Management Change


Reducing Cross-Held Shares Is Precisely What Is Needed to Promote Management Change

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem with cross-held shares is that management facing shareholders tends to be neglected if they remain protected by a defensive wall rather than a lower return on capital.
  • The start of mandatory disclosure of policy shareholding policies from FY3/2025 will also help reduce policy shareholdings, which are expected to decrease gradually, but may remain as deemed shareholdings.
  • To improve capital profitability, profit margins must increase, so restructuring the business portfolio and investing for growth are key. Management changes are required to implement these changes.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 – Bullishness Remains and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 – Bullishness Remains
  • Singapore Market Roundup (07-Jan-2025): DBS upgrades PropNex & APAC to ‘buy’ on strong new launches in 2025.
  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Rate Cut Bets Delayed
  • Big Tech Fades on NVDA While Micron, Apple Supplies Gain
  • Ethanol Industry: Crushing Of Stock Prices Near The End?
  • SA Listed Property Review – December 2024
  • #82 India Insight: Automobile Sales Surge 9%, Microsoft’s $3Bn Inv in India, FY25 GDP Growth at 6.4%
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 7 January 2025


Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 – Bullishness Remains

By The Circuit

  • CES portfolio rebalancing happening at the beginning of the year
  • Predictions for semiconductor and tech industry in 2025
  • Expectations for aerospace and military spending, as well as developments in AR glasses and foldable iPhones

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Singapore Market Roundup (07-Jan-2025): DBS upgrades PropNex & APAC to ‘buy’ on strong new launches in 2025.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • DBS upgrades PropNex & APAC Realty to ‘buy’ citing strong pipeline of new launches in 2025.
  • DBS maintains neutral stance on SG stocks, predicts STI at 3,950 by 2025.
  • DBS maintains ‘buy’ rating on GVT, raises target price to $1.04 due to improved front-end opportunities. Maybank considers more share buybacks from Singtel, downplays benefits of consolidation.

Ohayo Japan | Fed Rate Cut Bets Delayed

By Mark Chadwick

  • Wall Street fell sharply Tuesday as strong economic data fueled concerns about prolonged high interest rates.
  • Honda has partnered with Renesas Electronics to develop advanced semiconductors for next-generation electric vehicles
  • Toyota Motor has secured Nvidia’s latest high-performance semiconductors to accelerate development of next-generation autonomous vehicles.

Big Tech Fades on NVDA While Micron, Apple Supplies Gain

By Andrew Jackson

  • Micron named as memory supplier for NVDA GPU’s sent Micronics 12% yesterday.
  • Ibiden continues to look like a big Blackwell winner with momentum increasing off recent low.
  • Big outstanding short interest for Nikon making it a squeeze ready take-over target.

Ethanol Industry: Crushing Of Stock Prices Near The End?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The government has advanced its target for 20% ethanol blending in petrol from 2025 to 2030 , considering recent achievements and public support.
  • In current season the OMCs have floated tenders for 8.37 bn litres, against 9.7 bn litres required to achieve 20% blending target.
  • The sector could see margin improvements if options for sugar price hikes or export permissions are introduced, creating a potential upside.

SA Listed Property Review – December 2024

By Garreth Elston

  • The South African listed property sector had a positive month in December, capping a robust year of excellent returns.
  • For 2024 the SA All Property Index rose 28.85%, outperforming the JSE’s all-share index’s +9.37% and the top 40 +6.93%.
  • South African listed property thoroughly outperformed global listed property, with the EPRA Nareit Global Index’s TR lagging the J803 TR Index by 22.41% in ZAR terms for the year.

#82 India Insight: Automobile Sales Surge 9%, Microsoft’s $3Bn Inv in India, FY25 GDP Growth at 6.4%

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Automobile retail sales grew by 9% in 2024, driven by strong demand for two-wheelers and passenger vehicles, while commercial vehicle sales remained flat. 
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)  $3 billion investment in India focuses on expanding AI and cloud infrastructure, training 10 million people in AI skills, and building sustainable data centers.
  • India’s real GDP is expected to grow by 6.4% in FY25, down from 8.2% in FY24. Agriculture GVA growth projected at 3.8%, with strong performance in Public Administration and Services.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 7 January 2025

By The IDEA!

  • AkzoNobel NV (“ANNV”) has requested the Board of Directors of Akzo Nobel India Ltd to consider, evaluate and start taking exploratory steps towards a potential sale of the company’s powder coatings business and its international research centre (R&D operations) to a separate indirect wholly owned subsidiary of ANNV, the company said in a regulatory filing.
  • Besides, Akzo Nobel India has asked to explore the potential acquisition of decorative paints intellectual properties owned by ANNV, the company added.
  • “The Board of Directors of the Akzo Nobel India, at its meeting held on January 6, 2025, took note of the above said and authorized the company’s management to commence exploratory steps as may be required to evaluate and examine the aforesaid potential transactions,” the filing said.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
  • We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
  • Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218

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Daily Brief ECM: Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life
  • Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
  • We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
  • For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
  • AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
  • According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal
  • WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out
  • GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote
  • US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale
  • EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025


Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

By Brian Freitas

  • The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
  • There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
  • If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) – SAMR Approved, Trading Tight, Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Overnight, we got news that the JIC Consortium Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) was approved 27Dec2024. That was the last approval required (other than TSE TOB Launch approval).
  • This is “on schedule” or slightly early from the previously-announced expected launch date.
  • This morning, the stock is up sharply and is trading <0.75% from terms. Expect an announcement within two weeks. Current arb annualised at high 6% is OK. One could hold.

WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield’s IPO Doc Now Out

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 17 November 2024, WH Group (288 HK)  announced an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
  • WHG, the world’s largest pork producer, announced on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. 
  • Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ IPO doc was made public. As per the filing: “the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined“.

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down

By David Blennerhassett

  • Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
  • But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
  • Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
  • Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
  • I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.

US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies – Impact on Korean Competitors

By Douglas Kim

  • The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with China’s military.
  • This is likely to negatively impact Tencent and CATL’s prices in the next several weeks but positively impact on some of the major Korean rechargeable battery and gaming stocks.
  • The higher probability scenario at this point is for Tencent and CATL to be officially included in the Chinese Military Industrial Complex list in the coming weeks. 

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


LUNA Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Financial Restatement Delays and Strategic Review for Potential Sale

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • LUNA stock faced a 57% decline due to Nasdaq delisting notice, with trading volume 25 times the average.
  • White Hat Capital Partners invested $50m in December 2023 and increased the loan facility to $30m in October 2024.
  • Luna Innovations specializes in fiber optic sensing solutions, with notable contracts in aerospace, automotive, and oil & gas industries.

EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) – An Options Strategy for 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Insight presents two S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) options strategies for 2025. Call overwriting can generate premium income and potentially enhance returns in a choppy but mildly positive market.
  • The second strategy is a Risk Reversal, using the proceeds from a short call to buy a protective put option, providing downside protection while still allowing for some upside potential.
  • Both strategies are designed to align with the expected market conditions, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and market volatility.

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