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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (A), Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Kuaishou Technology, Shanghai Electric Group Company, Seres Group , China CSSC Holdings Ltd A, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Fosun Tourism and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Swire Trading “Cheap” As Cathay Squares Government Debt
  • GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF’s Filing
  • Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50
  • China’s Two Largest Shipbuilders Set Stock Swap Terms For $38 Billion Merger
  • CATL CEO & Founder Robin Zeng:  The Journey to Market Dominance
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?


StubWorld: Swire Trading “Cheap” As Cathay Squares Government Debt

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (19 HK) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor vs. Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Cathay Pacific (293 HK), after Cathay settles its Hong Kong government tab.
  • Preceding my comments on Swire and Cathay are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF’s Filing

By David Blennerhassett


Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • DCM Investments is looking to raise US$484m via selling its remaining stake in Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
  • While the current block deal isn’t entirely well flagged per se, it appears that DCM has since been trimming its stake on the open market.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Since our last insight in August, there has been a sharp increase in reported AUMs tracking CSI 300 and CSI 500. This has caused our flow expectations to rise sharply.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We currently see 5 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 50 index and 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. 

China’s Two Largest Shipbuilders Set Stock Swap Terms For $38 Billion Merger

By Caixin Global

  • China State Shipbuilding Corp. Ltd. (CSSC) and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. (CSIC) on Wednesday announced a stock exchange proposal in their merger deal.
  • Analysts said the proposed exchange terms are not favorable for shareholders of China Shipbuilding Industry.
  • The two largest state-owned shipbuilding conglomerates determined the exchange ratio at 0.1335 shares of CSSC for each share of CSIC.

CATL CEO & Founder Robin Zeng:  The Journey to Market Dominance

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Company specializes in battery products for electric vehicles and energy storage
  • Competes with itself to continuously innovate and invent new chemistries
  • Relies on state support in China to quickly meet consumer needs and roll out products efficiently

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • A partial disposal of Club Med is positive for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK). The market is speculating CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP) is paying EUR500m for a 20-30% stake.
  • Club Med generated 91.7% of its 1H24 operating profit. The rumoured valuation will boost its value by HK$6.9/share, 1.2x of the share price if true.
  • We see reasons for such disposal, and if happens, this will align the stock’s valuation to international peers – 26.2x for FY24, vs. its 11.3x currently.

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Daily Brief India: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Hexaware Technologies, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December
  • Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / As Suspected … Risk-Premia Unable to Hold Its Bid


Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Prices showing uptrend after a marginal slide in recent times  
  • Kerala climate conducive for production, leading to good yield  
  • More regions in bid to expand rubber area buoyed by higher prices

Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)  is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, Kotak, HSBC, IIFL Securities and Citi.
  • Hexaware Technologies is a global digital and technology services company delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations, as per the company.
  • Its offerings encompass five services, namely Design & Build, Secure & Run, Data & AI, Optimize, and Cloud Services.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / As Suspected … Risk-Premia Unable to Hold Its Bid

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs traded lower as risk sentiment received a boost. Markdown in risk-premia confirms earlier premise that the early-September Vol-spike was a seasonality driven event
  • Vol-Curve Term-structure going into the Fed meeting – Slightly inverted for Nifty50 options & exhibiting V-shape kinked curve for BankNifty options
  • Volatility Regime Model for BankNifty has switched to “Low & Down”, while Nifty50 options retain their “High & Down” vol-state. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Elan Corp, Seven & I Holdings, Intermestic, QD Laser, Goldwin Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender
  • M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)
  • How a 7-Eleven takeover could reshape corporate Japan
  • Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Intermestic IPO: A Proven Business Model with Improving Financials
  • Intermestic IPO – Steady Domestic Business, but Limited International Exposure
  • QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation
  • Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks
  • Mandatory Disclosure of the % of Women Managers Alone Will End up Being a Noncommittal Measure


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender

By Arun George

  • KKR has rejigged its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR’s consent.
  • By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   

M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

By Travis Lundy

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
  • There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
  • There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 

How a 7-Eleven takeover could reshape corporate Japan

By Behind the Money

  • A Canadian company, Alimentation Couche-Tard, has made an unsolicited offer to acquire Japan’s Seven & I Holdings, the owner of the popular 7-11 convenience store chain, marking Japan’s largest foreign-led takeover attempt.
  • This proposed takeover could signal a shift in Japan’s traditional resistance to foreign acquisitions, opening up opportunities for more global mergers and acquisitions in the country.
  • The deal would create a global giant in the convenience store industry and represents a significant change in Japan’s deal-making and corporate culture.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.

Intermestic IPO: A Proven Business Model with Improving Financials

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Japanese eyewear manufacturer and retailer, Intermestic (262A JP) has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is planning to raise proceeds of $112m.
  • The company operates stores both domestically and internationally, and the company’s financials show strong improvement during the last few years.
  • Intermestic has not yet announced the terms for its IPO, and in this insight, we have discussed the company’s business models, outlook and financials.

Intermestic IPO – Steady Domestic Business, but Limited International Exposure

By Clarence Chu

  • Intermestic (262A JP) is looking to raise US$110m in its Japan IPO. Intermestic is an eyewear manufacturer of eyeglasses and eyeglass accessories in Japan.
  • Utilizing a specialty store retailer of private label apparel (SPA) model, the firm aims to provide a one-stop shop whereby manufacturing and retailing of its products are handled in-house.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/24, revenue was JPY1.2bn (+7.6% YoY), operating loss was JPY604mn (vs operating loss of JPY557mn in FY03/23), recurring loss was JPY601mn (vs recurring loss of JPY547mn in FY03/23), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent was JPY643mn (vs net loss of JPY550mn in FY03/23). In the Laser Device business, revenue from DFB lasers for semiconductor wafer inspection equipment and micromachining equipment grew, as did revenue from prototypes for mass production using quantum dot lasers.
  • In the Visual Information Display business, sales of RETISSA MEOCHECK to medical institutions expanded. On the profit front, the operating loss increased due to inventory write-downs of JPY28mn in the Laser Device business and JPY57mn in the Visual Information Device business.
  • For FY03/25, the company forecasts revenue of JPY1.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating loss of JPY589mn (vs operating loss of JPY604mn in FY03/24), recurring loss of JPY592mn (vs recurring loss of JPY601mn in FY03/24), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY596mn (vs net loss of JPY643mn in FY03/24). The company anticipates a tenth consecutive year of operating profit in its Laser Device business thanks to growing adoption.

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

By Mark Chadwick

  • Growth Inflection: Goldwin’s mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face’s expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.
  • Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.
  • Strong Capital Position: Goldwin’s robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.

Mandatory Disclosure of the % of Women Managers Alone Will End up Being a Noncommittal Measure

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Rather than “companies with advanced disclosure have higher ratios of female managers,” companies with high ratios of female managers are willing to disclose their ratios to show their progress.
  • Women’s tenure in the company is shorter than men’s, which is one of the reasons for the low ratio of women in management positions.
  • Changing from the “traditional division of labor in households” to a mindset in which men and women are equally responsible for household tasks is essential to solving the root problem.

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Most Read: Dongwon Industries, Fuji Soft Inc, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Elan Corp, Swire Pacific (A), Korea Zinc, Kuaishou Technology, Intuitive Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 4 ADDs & 5 DELs Possible
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender
  • Why Samsung Fire Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Dividend Play Ahead of the Value-Up Disclosure
  • M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)
  • StubWorld: Swire Trading “Cheap” As Cathay Squares Government Debt
  • Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc
  • Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Poised for Lunar Leadership with Major NASA Contract!
  • Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 4 ADDs & 5 DELs Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.
  • We expect up to four ADDs and five DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data. And we have a trade.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender

By Arun George

  • KKR has rejigged its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR’s consent.
  • By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   

Why Samsung Fire Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Dividend Play Ahead of the Value-Up Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the 15% ownership cap complicating buybacks, Samsung Fire’s more likely to roll out a dividend-focused value-up play instead.
  • They’ve flagged a mix of shareholder returns and investments, but the big question is how much will be funneled into returns this year.
  • If Samsung Fire hits a 50% shareholder return this year, DPS could jump to ₩23,000–₩25,000 with a 6.5% yield, potentially boosting the stock price by 20–30%.

M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

By Travis Lundy

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
  • There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
  • There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 

StubWorld: Swire Trading “Cheap” As Cathay Squares Government Debt

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (19 HK) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor vs. Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Cathay Pacific (293 HK), after Cathay settles its Hong Kong government tab.
  • Preceding my comments on Swire and Cathay are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.

Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • Hankyung Business Daily reported that Korea Investment Securities (KIS) is in a serious discussion with the Choi family of Korea Zinc to step up as a white knight.
  • KIS/Choi family are considering a plan to launch a counterbid against Jang family and MBK by investing around 2 trillion won+ along with other private equity funds.
  • It is probable that tender offer price of Korea Zinc could be raised by 15-25% due to a likely counterbid and current price trading 7% higher than tender offer price.

Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • DCM Investments is looking to raise US$484m via selling its remaining stake in Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
  • While the current block deal isn’t entirely well flagged per se, it appears that DCM has since been trimming its stake on the open market.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Poised for Lunar Leadership with Major NASA Contract!

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Machines is at the forefront of space exploration, specializing in lunar services and infrastructure, with a strong reliance on governmental contracts such as NASA.
  • The company’s recent $4.82 billion Near Space Network contract with NASA solidifies its standing as a critical player in the burgeoning space economy.
  • Intuitive Machines is uniquely positioned in the market with its lunar lander capabilities, data transmission services, and autonomous lunar operations.

Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The key issue is if KIS can form a consortium. PEFs are saying the timeline is too tight and are concerned about the unclear exit strategy.
  • To make this work, PEFs need Choi’s 15.65% Korea Zinc stake as collateral, but much of it is already tied up, limiting cash-raising potential.
  • They’ll likely continue to leak news to boost the price and buy time. But this will also push MBK to sweeten their offer sooner.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Avangrid and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Iberdrola/Avangrid: Almost All Conditions Met


Iberdrola/Avangrid: Almost All Conditions Met

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The deal has now got green light from the SEC, FERC, Maine Public Utilities Commission, and seal of approval from ISS and Glass Lewis.
  • Pending are the approval of the New York Public Service Commission and shareholder approval (GM on September 26, which should just be a formality).
  • Spread is 0.46%/3.48% (gross/annualised) based on the closing share price of September 18 and assuming both a prorated dividend of $0.1467 and settlement on November 8. Long and tender.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Korea Zinc, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sherwin Williams Co, Source Energy Services, Trigon Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF’s Filing
  • Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc
  • Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December
  • Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal
  • Main Takeaways from Today’s MBK Press Briefing About the Korea Zinc Tender
  • Sherwin-Williams: Brushstrokes of Success – [Business Breakdowns, EP.183]
  • Source Energy Services Ltd (SANDCN 10.5% 2025 Notes) – Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024
  • TM: Underground Mining Outperforms – Open Pit Pauses


GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF’s Filing

By David Blennerhassett


Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • Hankyung Business Daily reported that Korea Investment Securities (KIS) is in a serious discussion with the Choi family of Korea Zinc to step up as a white knight.
  • KIS/Choi family are considering a plan to launch a counterbid against Jang family and MBK by investing around 2 trillion won+ along with other private equity funds.
  • It is probable that tender offer price of Korea Zinc could be raised by 15-25% due to a likely counterbid and current price trading 7% higher than tender offer price.

Indian Producers Anticipate Higher Prices Till December

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Prices showing uptrend after a marginal slide in recent times  
  • Kerala climate conducive for production, leading to good yield  
  • More regions in bid to expand rubber area buoyed by higher prices

Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The key issue is if KIS can form a consortium. PEFs are saying the timeline is too tight and are concerned about the unclear exit strategy.
  • To make this work, PEFs need Choi’s 15.65% Korea Zinc stake as collateral, but much of it is already tied up, limiting cash-raising potential.
  • They’ll likely continue to leak news to boost the price and buy time. But this will also push MBK to sweeten their offer sooner.

Main Takeaways from Today’s MBK Press Briefing About the Korea Zinc Tender

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK’s funding plan for Korea Zinc involves using ₩1T from their 6th Buyout Fund and the rest via debt. This setup leaves room to potentially increase the tender price.
  • The key question is if there’s enough upside at this price. MBK’s silence on abandoning Youngpoong suggests they’re unlikely to fully bail on Korea Zinc even if the tender fails.
  • With MBK’s strategy leaked, institutions may hesitate, fearing less price drop risk, suggesting a proxy battle could heat up. We should consider spread trading and post-tender price moves.

Sherwin-Williams: Brushstrokes of Success – [Business Breakdowns, EP.183]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Sherwin Williams offers a 6.9% yield for the next four years or more through a diversified portfolio of bonds.
  • The company is a leader in the paint and coatings industry, with a focus on professional painters and industrial applications.
  • Sherwin Williams has a long history and has been a quiet compounder, compounding earnings at 14% per year over the last 20 years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Source Energy Services Ltd (SANDCN 10.5% 2025 Notes) – Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Source Energy Services is a producer, supplier, and distributor of high-quality Northern White Frac Sand primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin
  • The company offers an end-to-end solution through its Wisconsin sand mine assets, producing 4.8mmtpa of tier 1 Northern White Sand
  • Source Energy Services issued 10.5% senior secured notes in December 2020, offering an attractive opportunity at current prices with a low-risk carry of 10.5%

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


TM: Underground Mining Outperforms – Open Pit Pauses

By Atrium Research

  • TM announced a key production milestone, having mined 980tpd over a 30-day period, surpassing a threshold in the Sprott streaming agreement.
  • This news de-risks the project as Trigon is no longer required to convert the principal advance into a loan (more detail below).
  • As a result of the highly successful underground mining operations, the Company has decided to pause the open pit and only process high-grade underground ore.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Seres Group , Intermestic, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Goldwin Inc, Dowlais Group , Pvh Corp, Genting Bhd, Garrett Motion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • How a 7-Eleven takeover could reshape corporate Japan
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50
  • Intermestic IPO: A Proven Business Model with Improving Financials
  • Intermestic IPO – Steady Domestic Business, but Limited International Exposure
  • Mandatory Disclosure of the % of Women Managers Alone Will End up Being a Noncommittal Measure
  • Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks
  • Value Situations’ Conor Maguire on Why Strategic Review at Dowlais $DWL.L Indicates a Live Catalyst
  • Pvh Corp – VNCE: Snapping the Store: Strategically Focused for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT
  • Morning Views Asia:
  • GTX: Previewing for Free Cash Flow


How a 7-Eleven takeover could reshape corporate Japan

By Behind the Money

  • A Canadian company, Alimentation Couche-Tard, has made an unsolicited offer to acquire Japan’s Seven & I Holdings, the owner of the popular 7-11 convenience store chain, marking Japan’s largest foreign-led takeover attempt.
  • This proposed takeover could signal a shift in Japan’s traditional resistance to foreign acquisitions, opening up opportunities for more global mergers and acquisitions in the country.
  • The deal would create a global giant in the convenience store industry and represents a significant change in Japan’s deal-making and corporate culture.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We currently see 5 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 50 index and 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. 

Intermestic IPO: A Proven Business Model with Improving Financials

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Japanese eyewear manufacturer and retailer, Intermestic (262A JP) has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is planning to raise proceeds of $112m.
  • The company operates stores both domestically and internationally, and the company’s financials show strong improvement during the last few years.
  • Intermestic has not yet announced the terms for its IPO, and in this insight, we have discussed the company’s business models, outlook and financials.

Intermestic IPO – Steady Domestic Business, but Limited International Exposure

By Clarence Chu

  • Intermestic (262A JP) is looking to raise US$110m in its Japan IPO. Intermestic is an eyewear manufacturer of eyeglasses and eyeglass accessories in Japan.
  • Utilizing a specialty store retailer of private label apparel (SPA) model, the firm aims to provide a one-stop shop whereby manufacturing and retailing of its products are handled in-house.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Mandatory Disclosure of the % of Women Managers Alone Will End up Being a Noncommittal Measure

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Rather than “companies with advanced disclosure have higher ratios of female managers,” companies with high ratios of female managers are willing to disclose their ratios to show their progress.
  • Women’s tenure in the company is shorter than men’s, which is one of the reasons for the low ratio of women in management positions.
  • Changing from the “traditional division of labor in households” to a mindset in which men and women are equally responsible for household tasks is essential to solving the root problem.

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

By Mark Chadwick

  • Growth Inflection: Goldwin’s mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face’s expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.
  • Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.
  • Strong Capital Position: Goldwin’s robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.

Value Situations’ Conor Maguire on Why Strategic Review at Dowlais $DWL.L Indicates a Live Catalyst

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Dowlais is a UK-listed auto parts business worth 820 million GBP with a core business in GKN auto and the non-core business in GKN powder Metallurgy.
  • The company was spun off from Melrose Industries in 2020 and is currently undergoing a strategic review to potentially sell off the powder Metallurgy business, which could be worth over 1 billion GBP.
  • Dowlais’s core auto business is a global market leader in auto components and the potential sale of the powder Metallurgy business could exceed the company’s current market cap.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Pvh Corp – VNCE: Snapping the Store: Strategically Focused for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $3 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
  • We believe, with Fall now in full swing, Vince is flexing their ability to act strategically both fashion-wise and financially, rolling out impressive looks in sweaters, outerwear, dresses and accessories, expanding men’s with new bottoms in multiple colors and silhouettes and layering tops, tees, sweaters and knits.
  • Further, the company has been able to drive strong instock levels and expand the colors and products offered to the stores to drive higher overall sales and margins.

Morning Views Asia:

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


    GTX: Previewing for Free Cash Flow

    By Hamed Khorsand

    • When GTX reported Q2 results the global auto industry was going through a digestion period.  Many of those trends have persisted in the third quarter. 
    • The state of the global automotive market remains unclear with expectations at the beginning of the year set for growth and now it could be flat to slightly down.  
    • GTX should manage through the third quarter with minimal impact to the business and a stronger Euro further insulating the earnings from downward pressure.

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    Daily Brief Industrials: Intuitive Machines , Shanghai Electric Group Company, China CSSC Holdings Ltd A, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Boeing Co, SPIE SA and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

    In today’s briefing:

    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Poised for Lunar Leadership with Major NASA Contract!
    • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar
    • China’s Two Largest Shipbuilders Set Stock Swap Terms For $38 Billion Merger
    • CATL CEO & Founder Robin Zeng:  The Journey to Market Dominance
    • Boeing’s Uncertain Future: Navigating Challenges Amid Strikes & Mounting Debt!
    • SPIE – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


    Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Poised for Lunar Leadership with Major NASA Contract!

    By Baptista Research

    • Intuitive Machines is at the forefront of space exploration, specializing in lunar services and infrastructure, with a strong reliance on governmental contracts such as NASA.
    • The company’s recent $4.82 billion Near Space Network contract with NASA solidifies its standing as a critical player in the burgeoning space economy.
    • Intuitive Machines is uniquely positioned in the market with its lunar lander capabilities, data transmission services, and autonomous lunar operations.

    Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar

    By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

    • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
    • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
    • Since our last insight in August, there has been a sharp increase in reported AUMs tracking CSI 300 and CSI 500. This has caused our flow expectations to rise sharply.

    China’s Two Largest Shipbuilders Set Stock Swap Terms For $38 Billion Merger

    By Caixin Global

    • China State Shipbuilding Corp. Ltd. (CSSC) and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. (CSIC) on Wednesday announced a stock exchange proposal in their merger deal.
    • Analysts said the proposed exchange terms are not favorable for shareholders of China Shipbuilding Industry.
    • The two largest state-owned shipbuilding conglomerates determined the exchange ratio at 0.1335 shares of CSSC for each share of CSIC.

    CATL CEO & Founder Robin Zeng:  The Journey to Market Dominance

    By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

    • Company specializes in battery products for electric vehicles and energy storage
    • Competes with itself to continuously innovate and invent new chemistries
    • Relies on state support in China to quickly meet consumer needs and roll out products efficiently

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


    Boeing’s Uncertain Future: Navigating Challenges Amid Strikes & Mounting Debt!

    By Baptista Research

    • Boeing, a giant in the aerospace and defense industry, continues to find itself at the center of financial and operational turmoil.
    • Recent updates on its second-quarter 2024 earnings call revealed deep-rooted challenges exacerbated by a striking workforce and continued production slowdowns.
    • Yet, despite these hurdles, Boeing remains a critical player in the global aerospace market, buoyed by its extensive order backlog and future growth prospects.

    SPIE – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

    By Leonard Law, CFA

    Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
    We view SPIE’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The company has an “Adequate” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 

    SPIE was awarded a Gold rating by EcoVadis for the ninth consecutive year in 2023.


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    Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, Kuaishou Technology, Hexaware Technologies, Lattice Semiconductor, Celebrus Technologies, QD Laser, Shin Zu Shing and more

    By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

    In today’s briefing:

    • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender
    • Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
    • Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
    • Lattice Semiconductor
    • Celebrus Leads the Way in Privacy & Real-Time Customer Engagement
    • QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation
    • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Sep-2024): Global AI healthcare market status.


    Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender

    By Arun George

    • KKR has rejigged its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. 
    • The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR’s consent.
    • By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   

    Kuaishou Placement – US$480m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

    By Clarence Chu

    • DCM Investments is looking to raise US$484m via selling its remaining stake in Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
    • While the current block deal isn’t entirely well flagged per se, it appears that DCM has since been trimming its stake on the open market.
    • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

    Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

    By Akshat Shah

    • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)  is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, Kotak, HSBC, IIFL Securities and Citi.
    • Hexaware Technologies is a global digital and technology services company delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations, as per the company.
    • Its offerings encompass five services, namely Design & Build, Secure & Run, Data & AI, Optimize, and Cloud Services.

    Lattice Semiconductor

    By Douglas O’Laughlin

    • It’s an exciting time when your favorite semiconductor CEO comes out of “retirement” to return as a CEO.
    • Mine is personally Ford Tamer, who drove Inphi to ship the best DSP in the market against much larger competitors at a much faster pace.
    • In my opinion, Inphi was almost a miracle story in semiconductors. It was a literal David versus Goliath, and the man who led the team was Ford.

    Celebrus Leads the Way in Privacy & Real-Time Customer Engagement

    By Pyari Menon

    • Three areas seeing strong innovation growth in online technologies are identity resolution methods, real-time data collection & personalization technologies and solutions to ensure data compliance and governance. 
    • Celebrus Technologies (CLBS LN) is a micro-cap stock focused on the above areas and excels in real-time first-party data collection where data compliance and governance are critical.
    • Celebrus’ small size and unique expertise in some areas of data privacy and real-time customer engagement makes it a acquisition target for larger MarTech and/or analytics companies.

    QD Laser (6613 JP): Coverage Initiation

    By Shared Research

    • In FY03/24, revenue was JPY1.2bn (+7.6% YoY), operating loss was JPY604mn (vs operating loss of JPY557mn in FY03/23), recurring loss was JPY601mn (vs recurring loss of JPY547mn in FY03/23), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent was JPY643mn (vs net loss of JPY550mn in FY03/23). In the Laser Device business, revenue from DFB lasers for semiconductor wafer inspection equipment and micromachining equipment grew, as did revenue from prototypes for mass production using quantum dot lasers.
    • In the Visual Information Display business, sales of RETISSA MEOCHECK to medical institutions expanded. On the profit front, the operating loss increased due to inventory write-downs of JPY28mn in the Laser Device business and JPY57mn in the Visual Information Device business.
    • For FY03/25, the company forecasts revenue of JPY1.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating loss of JPY589mn (vs operating loss of JPY604mn in FY03/24), recurring loss of JPY592mn (vs recurring loss of JPY601mn in FY03/24), and net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY596mn (vs net loss of JPY643mn in FY03/24). The company anticipates a tenth consecutive year of operating profit in its Laser Device business thanks to growing adoption.

    Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Sep-2024): Global AI healthcare market status.

    By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

    • Rapid growth in tech and demand for personalized medicine drives need for efficient healthcare solutions.
    • Samsung faces threat as trifold race loss jeopardizes smartphone market lead.
    • ViewSonic’s AI technology displays target education and business markets with innovative solutions. Samsung diversifies global mobile phone production while Chinese MacBook case supplier faces quality issues.

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    Daily Brief Health Care: Elan Corp, BioAge Labs and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

    In today’s briefing:

    • M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)
    • Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
    • BioAge Labs Launches IPO Roadshow, Seeks To Raise Up To $150M on the Nasdaq Exchange


    M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

    By Travis Lundy

    • M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
    • There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
    • There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 

    Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

    By Arun George

    • Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
    • The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
    • Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.

    BioAge Labs Launches IPO Roadshow, Seeks To Raise Up To $150M on the Nasdaq Exchange

    By Andrei Zakharov

    • BioAge Labs launches roadshow and sets terms for an IPO: a company offers 7.5M shares at the price range of $17.00-$19.00, implying a market cap of ~$580M at the midpoint.
    • Sofinnova Venture Partners plans to purchase ~$15M worth of BioAge Labs shares in this offering. The shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq on September 26, 2024.
    • I view IPO valuation (post-offering EV ~$280M and runway into 2028) as attractive and expect BioAge Labs shares will outperform during first trading day next week.

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