This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC Q325. Today, The Numbers Are Insane
- Q3 2025 revenues of $33.1 billion, slightly exceeding the upper end of the guided range, up 10.1% QoQ and up 40.8% YoY.
- On track for 35% YoY revenue growth in 2025, with revenue likely to exceed $120 billion
- No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it’s the latter..
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again
- TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Continue to View 24% or Higher as Level to Short From
- UMC: +0.4% Premium; Results Coming… Wait for More Extreme Spread Levels
- ASE: +0.4% Premium; Near Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
3. Intel Q325. Solid Quarter But Still No Coherent AI Strategy & 18A Yields Won’t Mature Until 2027
- Intel announced Q325 revenues of $13.7 billion, above the high end of the guided range, up 6% QoQ and up 2.8% YoY
- Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $13.3 billion at the midpoint, down $1 billion YoY and down $400 million QoQ
- 18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be “industry acceptable” by 2027
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC’s Prices Spur Samsung Interest
- MediaTek Joins Forces with NVIDIA on the GB10 Superchip — Locally-Run AI Models Are Coming to Your Desktop
- TSMC’s 2nm Price Hike Spurs Interest in Samsung, But Underscores Its Strength
- Latest for Smartphone Demand 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little
5. Intel (INTC.US): 3Q25 Results Slightly Beat; Emphasized AI Importance; Seeking New Foundry Clients.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) 3Q25 slightly exceeded consensus estimates in both revenue and EPS.
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan emphasized the growing importance of AI, while CFO David Zinsner highlighted the accelerated funding from the U.S. government and strategic investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank
- Intel’s foundry business still relies primarily on internal orders and continues to seek external customers.
6. LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag
- LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
- LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
- The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!
7. IHI (7013 JP): SAR Satellite Deal Adds to Takaichi Trade
- New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aims to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP this fiscal year, two years ahead of the original schedule.
- Takaichi also wants to accelerate investment in advanced defense technologies. IHI, which recently signed an agreement with ICEYE to build earth observations satellites, should be among the beneficiaries.
- IHI’s sales and profit comparisons should turn positive during FY Mar-26. A 7-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2025, makes the shares more attractive to retail investors.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
- IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
- There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.
2. SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Valuation Insights
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), the world’s third-largest construction machinery company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.6 billion.
- I discussed the H Share listing in SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- The proposed AH discount of 17.2% to 13.1% (based on the 17 October A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.
3. WeRide Secondary HK Offering – Is Relatively Cheaper but Lacks Momentum
- WeRide (WRD US) plans to raise around US$350m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 19th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
- In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.
4. Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
- Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 17th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
- In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.
5. ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, India saw a host of listing, while HK is gearing up a busy year end.
- On the placements front, we had a look at some of the IPO lockups. There weren’t any large placements this week.
6. CIG Shanghai A/H Listing: Smaller A/H Premium than Larger Peers, Expensive
- Cig Shanghai (603083 CH), telecommunications equipment company, is looking to raise up to US$594m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a provider of critical infrastructure components for the development of AI.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
7. Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) aims to raise around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
- Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
8. Sany Heavy Industry IPO: Valuation Assessment
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)‘s IPO price range is set at HK$20.3-21.3, aiming at raising HK$11.9bn based on the mid-point IPO price.
- Key strengths are excellent growth potential globally, a leading market position, excellent R&D capability, and a solid financial track record.
- Sany Heavy’s fair valuation is a 5-10% discount to its A-share, in our view, implying an H-share price of HK$22.06-23.29, leaving limited upside from the IPO level.
9. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 – Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind
- Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.
- Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.
- However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.
10. Pony AI HK Dual Primary Listing: The Investment Case
- Pony AI (PONY US) is a Chinese robotaxi operator and self-driving technology company. It is seeking to raise US$1 billion through a dual primary HKEx listing.
- It was listed on the Nasdaq on 27 November 2024, raising US$260 million at US$13.00 per ADS. Since listing, the shares are up 48%.
- The investment case centres around Pony’s accelerating revenue growth and progress towards positive unit economics. However, the path to profitability is long-dated and the valuation is full.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
2. Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
- A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
- Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
- That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.
3. [Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
- Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
- They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
- It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme.
4. [Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
- But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
- Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.
5. Palliser Capital Goes Activist on LG Chem
- Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem. According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
- Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks.
- Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.
6. Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
- Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
- Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
- Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.
7. Korea’s Next Policy Play: NAV Discount Squeeze on Low‑Float Large Caps
- Market sniffing policy push; low-float names flagged as junk risk with skewed control. Desks circling, Palliser hit early—LG Chem trade popped, timing spot on.
- Trade setup: screen >₩1tn caps with low float, parent stakes 60–80%. Policy push likely forces stake cuts, driving float higher and squeezing NAV discounts—LG Chem shows the play.
- Screening >₩1tn caps flags 11 names: parents hold 60–80%. All potential stake-sale plays to boost float, squeeze NAV discount.
8. Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
9. Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
10. Fresh Policy Momentum Hitting Korea Tape: Trade Is Lining up Around 13 Holdcos with CVC Exposure
- Gov’t likely to ease CVC rules; street chatter sees high odds. Tied to KRW150tn Growth Fund push, with corporates lobbying—cleanest path to juice capital flow.
- Holdcos at center of CVC‑easing; scrapping disclosure rule unlocks external capital. Street read: fast flip from control towers to re‑rating plays as real investment shops with growth portfolios.
- KFTC flags 177 holdcos, 14 with CVCs (13 listed). Street sees momentum flows hitting these 13 names; play via basket/overweight, with Doosan, Hyosung, LX as preferred plays.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop
- Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
- We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
- Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.
2. BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End
- Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI).
- Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.
- Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.
3. Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market
- Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
- Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.
- Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.
4. Nintendo and the Switch 2: An Options Menu
- Nintendo is poised for a significant growth phase, driven by its new console and an expansive intellectual property ecosystem, promising sustained financial performance.
- Strategic capacity expansion and a robust balance sheet position Nintendo to capitalize on strong demand, mitigating risks and reinforcing its market leadership.
- Despite potential market volatility and competitive pressures, aggressive production targets and a strong financial foundation suggest a compelling investment opportunity.
5. Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?
- A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
- Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and Amazon (AMZN US) is actually oversold (buy opportunity).
- The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold.
6. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Awaiting Imminent Pullback
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has been going nowhere since July 2025 and before that it dropped from its highest peak. Long-term bullish, but short term we expect a pullback.
- Our model shows that the current trend pattern for Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is not bullish, usually the stock pulls back after 2 weeks up, i.e. end of this week.
- We propose this analysis of the pullback as an opportunity to buy at higher prices, or otherwise to hedge your holdings, if you want to tactically optimize returns.
7. BYD (1211 HK) Earnings on 30 Oct: Options Price in Larger-Than-Usual Move
- Context:BYD (1211 HK) reports Q3 2025 results on 30 October after market close.
- Options markets imply a ±4.7% move, notably larger than the historical ±3.0% average. The stock has shown asymmetric reactions, with fewer but stronger upside moves.
- Why Read: Understand how implied swings compare with history and how the earnings-linked volatility peak offers tactical opportunities around BYD’s 31 Oct weekly expiry.
8. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Time to Lock In Gains
- Despite good earnings results, HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) does not seem to be going anywhere. The stock did rally for the past 3 weeks but after the earnings stayed flat.
- Our quantitative probabilistic model indicates HDFC Bank usually does not rally for more than 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered (we are in the 4th week, this week).
- From a price perspective, our model shows a mildly overbought stock, confirming the slow pace. The pullback should be short-lived (1-2 weeks), but it’s imminent.
9. Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms
- Context: Toyota Motor (7203 JP) rallied 3.2% in Wednesday’s morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.
- Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.
- Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.
10. Otsuka, Hirose Electric, Screen, Advantest: The Value Seeker Portfolio and NK Options
- A compelling investment strategy focused on high-quality Japanese equities, selected for strong financial health and growth prospects. This approach targets companies offering stability and long-term appreciation.
- The portfolio emphasizes industrial, automation, pharma, and technology hardware sectors, balanced with a tactical volatility trading approach. This strategy aims to enhance returns while managing short-term market fluctuations.
- Otsuka Holdings is highlighted as a core pharma pick. Screen and Hirose Electric are strong value picks in manufacturing and electronic tech, contributing to the portfolio’s quality and value focus.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK CPI Trips Into The Fall
- UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
- Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
- Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.
2. Credit Cockroaches Incubating
- Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
- Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
- It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.
3. EMERGING THEMES: China’s Next 5 Year Plan
- China will roll out its 2026 – 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.
- Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance. We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.
- Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.
4. A Sharp Increase in Short Selling Balance in the Korean Stock Market Past Seven Months
- The net short selling balance in KOSPI reached 12.6 trillion won as of 20 October. This is the largest amount ever.
- The top 5 companies in KOSPI with highest short selling balance/market cap ratio include Kakaopay, L&F, Hanmi Semiconductor, Cosmax, and LG H&H.
- Net short position In KOSDAQ as a percentage of total KOSDAQ market cap more than doubled from 0.5% as of 31 March to 1.1% as of 21 October 2025.
5. A Fragile Bull
- The narrow U.S. market leadership presents fragility challenges for investors.
- The economy is becoming increasingly dependent on the top 20% of consumers, and the market is dependent on Magnificent Seven and AI stocks to lead the market.
- While there are no signs that these trends are about to break, the market is overextended in the short run and can correct at any time.
6. The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (October 20)
- The materials sector continues its outperformance in Hong Kong, however the recent sharp pullback showed a weakening in strength and momentum.
- Mainland investors continued to buy Hong Kong listed stocks heavily during the market pullback earlier this month.
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) quashed market rumors about a large robotic order from Tesla (TSLA US); however, it continues discussions on cooperation opportunities.
7. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (October 18)
- Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.
- Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.
- Hengan International Group (1044 HK) had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis. Analysts’ recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.
8. The Art of the Trade War: THE END OF THE BEGINNING
- The meeting next week between Presidents Trump and Xi will mark the beginning of a resolution to trade and other issues between the two countries.
- The most difficult tech and rare earth elements issues will probably not be resolved. Increased tariff rates will be delayed again.
- TikTok and Taiwan are key issues and will set the tone for the U.S.-China relationship during President Trump’s remaining term.
9. EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?
- Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.
- Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.
- Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.
10. HEW: Heavy Hitters Pulling Punches
- Sentiment stabilised this week as credit issues are realised to be more of a long-term problem than an imminent issue. Indonesia and Korea hawkishly held their policy rates.
- Inflation undershot final expectations in the UK and US, yet constitutes less excess rather than outright weakness, and merely aligns with slightly earlier forecasts.
- Next week’s release calendar has some heavy hitters, but pulling their punches. The Fed cut and ECB hold are widely expected, as is a marginal slowing in EA inflation.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
- Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.
- Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today
- TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session
- UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short
- ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short
3. Nvidia (NVDA.US): Problems Encountered in Land Acquisition to Establish Offshore Headquarters.
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is setting up an offshore headquarters in Taipei, and is currently in the process of acquiring land.
- Taiwan’s central government is currently ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while Taipei City is governed by a mayor from the Kuomintang (KMT), creating political complications.
- Politics often takes precedence over economics, yet in a democracy, politics is driven by competing parties—inevitably leading to conflicts of interest.
4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.
- For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).
- N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications
- Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.
5. Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating
- TSMC 3Q25: Margins Surge as Pricing Power Strengthens Ahead of 2nm Ramp
- AI Megatrend Continues to Reshape Demand – 40% CAGR Expected for AI Accelerators Through 2029
- Maintain Structural Long Rating — TSMC Remains Inexpensive vs. Tech Companies Highly Dependent on It
6. First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party
- OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
- OpenAI’s AMD & Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
- In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!
7. Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Indicates DRAM Price Spike to Persist Longer; SK Hynix Relative Trade
- Nanya Tech 3Q25: Rebounds to Profit Thanks to DDR4 Price Surge Windfall… But Underlying Structural Drivers Remain Unsteady
- The World’s DDR4 Shortage to Extends Pricing Spike Through 4Q25
- Nanya Technology vs SK Hynix — We Expect Relative Strength Ahead for SK Hynix Over Nanya Tech
8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Market Share Keeps Rising; Semi Revenues Show AI the Only Pillar; AI PCs
- TSMC’s Grip Tightens: 2Q25 Market Share Hits New Heights; September Revenue Implies Even More Taken
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.
- PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here?
9. MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 Expected to Be Flat QoQ; D9600 Mass Production Scheduled for Late 2026.
- Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s 4Q25 performance is expected to remain roughly flat QoQ, compared with 3Q25.
- Based on the product launch cycles of major smartphone manufacturers, by the end of 2026, the 2nm process will be adopted in multiple flagship chips
- At the China Mobile Global Partner Conference on October 10, MediaTek showcased a range of its latest products
10. Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions
- Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY
- A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies
- Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying “incentives & leverage” with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China’s surprise rare earth move?
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
- TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
- In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
2. Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.
- I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
- The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.
3. ECM Weekly (13 October 2025)- LG India, Tata Capital, Rubicon, Canara, FineToday, Maynilad, Kokusai
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, the year end looks set to see a flurry of listings, with the pace already starting to pick up again.
- On the placements front, markets were back where they left of prior to the October holidays.
4. Top Toy IPO Preview
- Top Toy International is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next several months.
- Top Toy was last valued at US$1.3 billion in July 2025 when it received a US$59.4 million Series A financing (of which Temasek contributed US$40 million for a 3.2% stake).
- Top Toy is trading at P/E of 32x (2024 net profit) (valuation of US$1.3 billion) versus Pop Mart (P/E of 103x based on its 2024 net profit).
5. FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
- I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.
6. Fibocom A/H Listing: Strong Revenue Growth, Some Margin Pressures
- Fibocom Wireless (300638 CH) a wireless communication modules provider, aims to raise up to US$400m in its H-share listing.
- Fibocom was founded in Nov 1999, and is a leading wireless communication module provider. The firm’s module products include i) data transmission modules, ii) smart modules, and iii) AI modules.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
7. Sany Heavy Industries A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
- Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about the updates and likely A/H premium.
8. LG Electronics India IPO Trading – Very Strong Subscription, Won’t Be Chasing if It Pops Too High
- LG Electronics (066570 KS) raised around US$1.3bn via selling 15% of its stake in LG Electronics India IPO.
- LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume, as per Redseer Report.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
9. JST Group (6687 HK): Valuation Insights
- JST Group (6687 HK) is China’s largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. It is seeking to raise HK$2,086 million (US$268 million).
- I previously discussed the IPO in JST Group IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in the context of the revenue growth.
10. Seres Group A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
- Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
- In our previous note we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
- The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
- After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
- Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.
2. Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
- Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
- Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.
- HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.
3. Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU).
4. Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
- GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
- GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.
5. Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
- Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
- Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.
6. [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
- Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
- They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
- And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.
7. Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
- The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
- Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.
8. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
- The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.
9. StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
- Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
- Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
10. Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares
- On 13 October, Value Partners has come out in support of Samyang Holdings (000070 KS)’s equity spin-off plan but on the condition that the company must cancel its treasury shares.
- Value Partners believes Samyang Holdings is currently severely undervalued, trading at a P/B of 0.34x. A shareholders meeting for Samyang Holdings is scheduled for 14 October.
- We have a positive view of this equity spin-off. Our NAV valuation of Samyang Holdings suggests an implied price per share of 127,138 won (28.6% higher than current price).
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich
- Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.
- Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
2. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.
- This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don’t be too eager to enter early.
- The Nikkei could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.
3. Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start
- Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.
- This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context.
- Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.
4. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips…
- As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
- BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
- However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.
5. Advantest: Tests Are the Unsung Hero of the AI Chip Rally
- Advantest, a leader in semiconductor testing, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI chip rally, driven by increasing complexity and the critical need for stringent testing in next-generation devices.
- Record-Breaking financial performance and strategic capacity expansions signal long-term growth, despite anticipated near-term revenue fluctuations, setting the stage for future market outperformance.
- Technological dominance in areas like chiplet architecture and advanced digital solutions further solidifies Advantest’s structural advantage, hinting at a compelling opportunity for discerning investors.
6. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback
- The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
- Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
- If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.
7. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook: Severe Downside Tail Risk
- The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) has began a small correction. Our model has identified the current trend pattern as bearish. The pullback could reach the 4.3k/4.1k support zone.
- These corrections can last up to 4 weeks, but usually they resolve after 2-3 weeks (the index has already closed 1 week down, so there could be 1-2 more weeks).
- According to our model, the key support area is 4300: if the index breaks that support, it can fall quickly to 4100 or 4000. Read detailed tactical analysis in the insight.
8. The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets
- Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.
- The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.
- Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.
9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens
- Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
- Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
- We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
- Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
- Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.
2. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 October 2025
- China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
- Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
- India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to >10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.
3. UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3
- Slight growth in August sustains an above trend level of activity and is tracking to a 0.2% q-o-q pace for Q3, matching our forecast and the consensus, but disappointing the BoE.
- The ongoing slowdown in service sector activity repeats residual seasonality that would leave a trough in two months, but there is slightly more resilience this year.
- Policymakers shouldn’t react to statistical noise, and are unlikely to amid ongoing excesses in underlying inflation that a stabilising labour market wouldn’t break.
4. The Art of the Trade War: PAIN THRESHOLD FOR THE TACO TRADE!!
- Tensions between China and the U.S. have increased. Last week’s tit-for-tat exchanges culminated with President Trump threatening China with higher tariff rates and a cancellation of his meeting with Xi.
- Trump’s Friday post on social media immediately caused U.S. markets to swoon with the S&P breaking support levels. In a TACO trade moment, Trump reversed his harsh rhetoric on Sunday.
- Anyone can speculate on what the next few weeks will look like for markets, but we believe the market may start pricing in more long-term risk.
5. HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing
- Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
- Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
- Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.
6. EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall
- Inflation’s rise to a high 2.3% in September was confirmed in the final print, although some payback remains likely in October. We doubt it goes fully back to the target then.
- Underlying inflation metrics were broadly stable again at about 2.5%, with little progress in most statistical measures for over a year.
- There is little cause for alarm at this stage, so the ECB can keep waiting in a good place, but we still see a greater risk of hikes than cuts in 2026.
7. The Return of Tariff Man
- We’ve been warning forweeks that the U.S. equity market advance was extended and it could pull back at any time.
- President Trump’s threat to impose high tariffs on China seems to be the bearish trigger.
- Our base case calls for a 5-10% pullback, and we regard any correction as a welcome pause and opportunity to add to equity positions at lower prices.
8. The AI Bubble Debate
- Are we in an AI bubble? Probably, but much depends on what stage we are in the bubble.
- On one hand, headline M&A deals like the one concluded with AMD is supportive of further gains.
- On the other hand, the recent Oracle earnings report casts doubt about the profitability of AI cloud computing sustaining elevated valuations.
9. US Equities: Maintaining Elevated Leadership Valuations Will Require Upside Surprises
- Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth, not all is AI-related.
- There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&P500 leadership is priced to perfection.
- Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.
10. Asia Cross Asset Podcast: Japan – The New LDP Leader: Implications for policy and markets
- Ayako Takashi advocates for responsible expansionary fiscal policy, focusing on income distribution rather than aggressive fiscal expansion.
- Takashi’s comments on the relationship between the government and the Bank of Japan do not necessarily indicate clear intervention, but may put pressure on the central bank.
- The BOJ may need to deliver rate hikes every six months to combat elevated inflation, with market expectations of a terminal rate around 1%. Timing of rate hikes may be tricky, especially with fluctuating exchange rates.
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