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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges
  • Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta
  • (Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario
  • Global FX Volatility Outlook 2026
  • Likely Increase In Mandatory Tender Offer from the Current 50% + 1 Share Requirement
  • Bank of Japan Policy Outlook Complicated by Fiscal Stimulus and Past Policy Legacies
  • Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.
  • India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct’25-Sep’26
  • CX Daily: Malaysia Becomes Key to U.S. Push to Reduce China’s Rare-Earth Dominance
  • Oil futures: Crude firmer after Black Sea attack, OPEC+ pause


HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

By Phil Rush

  • Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.
  • Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.
  • Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

By At Any Rate

  • Global team focusing on what’s new for 2026 in terms of market outlook
  • Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience
  • Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


(Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario

By The Commodity Report

  • Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.
  • Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.
  • Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

Global FX Volatility Outlook 2026

By At Any Rate

  • Macro crew discussed a benign outlook on carry fairly risk on climate for the first half of the year
  • FX vols expected to be fairly contained in 2026 due to factors like US growth and central bank activity
  • Themes for positioning in 2026 include bullish European growth, antipodean FX, and bearish Yen outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Likely Increase In Mandatory Tender Offer from the Current 50% + 1 Share Requirement

By Douglas Kim

  • Korean government is likely to increase the mandatory tender offer from current 50% + 1 share requirement (minimum majority stake) to much higher levels (but below the maximum 100% requirement).
  • There is an increasing probability that indeed the Korean government is likely to increase the minimum majority stake requirement to 60% to 75% of total shares in 1H26. 
  • If the minimum maximum stake rises to 60%-75% of outstanding shares, this would have a further beneficial impact on the minority shareholders.

Bank of Japan Policy Outlook Complicated by Fiscal Stimulus and Past Policy Legacies

By Said Desaque

  • The Bank of Japan’s aggressive purchasing foray in the government bond market under Governor Kuroda now presents legacy issues due to the return of inflation and investors shunning duration risk.
  • Japan’s economy faces rising headwinds in 2025. The minority government has responded to slowing growth by announcing an aggressive fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting near-term activity and reducing headline inflation.
  • Unwinding of yen carry trades by Japanese investors is unlikely to impact US Treasuries significantly due to healthy demand from domestic investors. Yen-sourced global liquidity has already fallen in 2025.

Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). 
  • Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs’ worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.
  • Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct’25-Sep’26

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Unlike the consensus, we weren’t surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep’25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. 
  • We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct’25-Sep’26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. 
  • With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. 

CX Daily: Malaysia Becomes Key to U.S. Push to Reduce China’s Rare-Earth Dominance

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: Malaysia Becomes a Lynchpin in U.S.-Led Effort to Break China’s Grip on Rare Earths
  • In Depth: Nexperia’s Plight Could Have ‘Severe’ Impact on Global Automakers
  • Hong Kong Fire Victims Recount Horror of Being Trapped Without Warn

Oil futures: Crude firmer after Black Sea attack, OPEC+ pause

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures opened firmer after weekend events, including an attack on the key Black Sea port and OPEC+ maintaining its no change policy for Q1, which improved sentiment.
  • Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.23/b (2003 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.40/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.43/b against a previous close of $58.55/b.
  • Benchmarks strengthened as CPC suspended crude loadings at Novorossiysk early Saturday after an unmanned-boat strike tore into one of its offshore moorings, the latest in a string of attacks on the Black Sea export hub.

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Most Read: Toyota Industries, Dundee Precious Metals , Kuang-Chi Technologies , XD Inc., Tsuruha Holdings, Dawning Information Industry C, Canon Electronics, Delfi Ltd, African Gold Ltd, 3SBio Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+
  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
  • KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
  • [Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade
  • [Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies
  • Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations
  • African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)
  • 3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

By Travis Lundy

  • In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.  
  • The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO’s Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
  • The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount. 

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
  • Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
  • Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

By Brian Freitas


[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
  • This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
  • This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday post-close, parent Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a buyout of subsidiary Canon Electronics (7739 JP). The ¥3,650/share offer is supported and recommended (to shareholders) by Target Co management. 
  • This is the least surprising of parent-subsidiary buyout situations, but it took some time. I expect there are some funds already long a basket of these, including this one.
  • This is not a very fair procedure. The result is therefore, unfair. And no synergies to boot. But it is a 30+% premium to last, and Canon already owns 55%.

Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations

By Punit Khanna

  • Number 1 chocolate company in Indonesia with own brands like SilverQueen, Ceres etc. The company also distributes third party brands across South Asia.
  • Cocoa prices have halved from their recent peak but still they are higher than historical average
  • Stock trades at reasonable multiple to its 2023 earnings when cocoa prices were stable

Raising Money for Persons with Disabilities in Singapore

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All proceeds from the publication of this report will be donated to support people with disabilities in Singapore. If you find this report valuable, we invite you to support our campaign, “Raising Money for Persons with Disabilities in Singapore.” Every contribution directly benefits the Goh Chok Tong Enable Fund and qualifies for a 250% tax deduction for Singapore tax residents.

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African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

By David Blennerhassett

  • The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. 
  • Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
  • That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.

3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal

By Nicholas Tan

  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) is looking to raise around US$400m from a primary placement.
  • The deal is a small one, representing 2.9 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 3.9% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Brookfield Renewable , Ameren Corporation, Black Hills, Ppl Corp, Southwest Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Brookfield Renewable: A Shift Toward a Diversified
  • Ameren: Inside the Hyperscaler Rush- A New Era of Explosive Electricity Demand!
  • Black Hills Corporation Eyes a Mega 3GW Pipeline—A High-Voltage Opportunity Or Just Unnecessary Hype?
  • PPL Corporation: How Its Bold Grid Strategy Is Turning Hyperscalers Into Profit Engines!
  • Southwest Gas Holdings: Investments In Infrastructure & A Robust Financial Arsenal for a New Energy Supercycle Can Up The Ante!


Brookfield Renewable: A Shift Toward a Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Brookfield Renewable Partners recently reported its third-quarter 2025 performance, reflecting a complex mix of achievements and challenges.
  • The company recorded an increase in funds from operations (FFO) at $302 million or $0.46 per unit, marking a 10% year-over-year growth.
  • This performance was primarily driven by strong commercial and operational execution, strategic investments, and contributions from recent mergers and acquisitions across their diversified renewables portfolio.

Ameren: Inside the Hyperscaler Rush- A New Era of Explosive Electricity Demand!

By Baptista Research

  • The recent earnings call for Ameren Corporation provided an in-depth look at the company’s third-quarter performance and strategic direction.
  • Ameren reported adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from $1.87 per share in the same period in 2024.
  • This growth was attributed to several factors, including new electric service rates in Missouri and favorable weather conditions.

Black Hills Corporation Eyes a Mega 3GW Pipeline—A High-Voltage Opportunity Or Just Unnecessary Hype?

By Baptista Research

  • Black Hills Corporation reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, reaffirming its earnings guidance and highlighting key operational and strategic achievements.
  • The company emphasized its commitment to delivering on financial, regulatory, and growth initiatives, while also progressing with a merger with NorthWestern Energy.
  • Black Hills is on track to achieve its full-year earnings guidance, driven by new base rates, rider recovery, and customer growth.

PPL Corporation: How Its Bold Grid Strategy Is Turning Hyperscalers Into Profit Engines!

By Baptista Research

  • PPL Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 financial results present a complex picture of strengths and challenges for potential investors.
  • The company reported GAAP earnings of $0.43 per share, with earnings from ongoing operations adjusted to $0.48 per share.
  • This reflects a significant improvement from the $0.29 per share recorded in the third quarter of 2024.

Southwest Gas Holdings: Investments In Infrastructure & A Robust Financial Arsenal for a New Energy Supercycle Can Up The Ante!

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Gas Holdings’ recent earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of their financial and strategic positioning for the third quarter of 2025.
  • The company emphasized a significant milestone: the complete separation and disposition of Centuri, which strengthened its balance sheet and paid down all holding company debt.
  • This strategic restructuring allows Southwest Gas Holdings to refocus on its core regulated natural gas business, entirely aligned with long-term value creation as a pure-play natural gas utility.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Innovent Biologics Inc, 3SBio Inc, Zhenxing Biopharmaceutical & Chemicl, Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Trellus Health , Eco Animal Health, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals , VolitionRX , Cytokinetics Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • 2026 High Conviction – China Healthcare: High-Certainty Investment Opportunity Has Emerged
  • 3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal
  • Quiddity CSI 1000 Dec25 Results: 88% Hit Rate; 100 ADDs/DELs; ~US$2.5bn One-Way
  • Quiddity STAR 50/100 Dec25 Results: 19/20 Changes Correctly Predicted; ~US$2bn Combined One-Way Flow
  • Zydus Lifesciences: The PBC Catalyst, From Generics Volume to Specialty Value
  • Trellus Health Plc – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24 November 2025
  • Eco Animal Health – HY26: momentum accelerates
  • ARWR: Multiple Data Readouts Ahead in 2026
  • VNRX: 3Q 2025 results reported Revenues & EPS above our expectations cost cutting very evident. At least seven major operational milestones have been achieved thus far in 2025.
  • Cytokinetics’ Global Strategy Raises Big Questions—Is the Company Ready for a Worldwide HCM Push?


2026 High Conviction – China Healthcare: High-Certainty Investment Opportunity Has Emerged

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The growth of Innovent’s product revenue is always commendable. Based on strong growth momentum, product revenue in 2025 would be above RMB10 billion. Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 is expected.
  • Innovent’s peak sales would reach the level of RMB20 billion in 2027. RMB100 billion is the valuation bottom line in the short term. In mid-to-long term, the highlight is IBI363.
  • Current valuation has basically priced in favorable factors for fundamentals for the next three years.Investors can wait patiently for a pullback and buy the stock at a more cost-effective valuation.

3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal

By Nicholas Tan

  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) is looking to raise around US$400m from a primary placement.
  • The deal is a small one, representing 2.9 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 3.9% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity CSI 1000 Dec25 Results: 88% Hit Rate; 100 ADDs/DELs; ~US$2.5bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 1000 index were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
  • There will be 100 ADDs/DELs for CSI 1000 in the December 2025 rebalance.
  • The CSI 1000 index rebal event could trigger US$2.5bn in one-way flow.

Quiddity STAR 50/100 Dec25 Results: 19/20 Changes Correctly Predicted; ~US$2bn Combined One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
  • There will be two changes for the STAR 50 index and eight changes for the STAR 100 index.
  • We expect one-way flows of approximately US$1.4bn and US$516mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events, respectively.

Zydus Lifesciences: The PBC Catalyst, From Generics Volume to Specialty Value

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Zydus is shifting its business from US generics toward sustained, high-margin revenue. This growth is driven by its specialty pipeline, chronic Indian business, and MedTech.
  • The successful Phase 2(B)/3 trial of Saroglitazar for Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) is the key near-term catalyst, promising a long-duration, high-margin revenue stream in the US specialty market.
  • The transition to an innovation-led portfolio evidenced by robust pipeline, strong chronic growth in India, and the MedTech acquisition positions Zydus for a potential re-rating as earnings quality improves.

Trellus Health Plc – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24 November 2025

By Hybridan

  • The mid-market, challenger professional services platform and owner of the Dow Schofield Watts and the DR Solicitors brands reported strong revenue and EBITDA growth in its Interims to September.
  • Revenue improved from £1.1m to £2.2m with EBITDA up from £0.1m to £0.7m.
  • The cash balances of £2.2m is allowing an interim dividend of 1.2p per share to be paid to shareholders on the register on 12 December.

Eco Animal Health – HY26: momentum accelerates

By Equity Development

  • Eco Animal Health delivers a strong H1 FY26 performance.
  • Revenue surged 19% YoY to £39.4m, ahead of guidance, with adjusted EBITDA up to £3.0m from £0.4m last year.
  • Regional growth was impressive: North America +30% YoY and China & Japan +48% YoY.

ARWR: Multiple Data Readouts Ahead in 2026

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On November 25, 2025, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) announced financial results for fiscal year 2026 that ended September 30, 2025.
  • Following the recent approval of REDEMPLO , Arrowhead is now a commercial-stage company and has drug in channel only a week following approval, which is ahead of schedule.
  • Looking ahead to 2026, Arrowhead has a number of important data readouts, including a first look at obesity data for ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7 in January 2026 with a more complete data set expected in mid-2026, interim data for ARO-DIMER-PA in summer 2026, initial ARO-MAPT data looking at tau levels in CSF in summer 2026, topline results from SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 in 3Q26 with a potential sNDA filing before the end of 2026, and biomarker data for ARO-RAGE possible by the end of 2026 or in early 2027.

VNRX: 3Q 2025 results reported Revenues & EPS above our expectations cost cutting very evident. At least seven major operational milestones have been achieved thus far in 2025.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Management’s primary operational goal for 2025 is to secure multiple licensing agreements for human diagnostic applications.
  • In September Volition entered into two such licensing agreements The company’s 1st commercial order for Nu.Q Cancer assays was received in November.
  • The key financial goal for 2025 is to achieve cash neutrality on a full-year basis.

Cytokinetics’ Global Strategy Raises Big Questions—Is the Company Ready for a Worldwide HCM Push?

By Baptista Research

  • Cytokinetics reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting key developments and strategic planning for its lead candidate, aficamten.
  • The company is actively preparing for the potential FDA approval of aficamten for obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM), with significant progress in commercial readiness and regulatory engagements.
  • On the regulatory front, Cytokinetics has conducted productive discussions with the FDA regarding aficamten’s Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program and labeling considerations.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Emerson Electric Co, Fanuc Corp, Cardinal Infrastructure, Watts Water Technologies A, Lincotrade & Associates Holdings, Millrose Properties, MTT Shipping and Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Emerson Electric’s Bold Power Play: Tapping Into a New Energy Supercycle!
  • Primer: Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) – Dec 2025
  • Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL): Infrastructure Play Sets Terms for IPO
  • Watts Water Technologies: Inside the Haws Deal- What Will This Power Acquisition Unlock?
  • Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement
  • Sell Millrose Properties
  • MTT Shipping and Logistics Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Emerson Electric’s Bold Power Play: Tapping Into a New Energy Supercycle!

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric Manufacturing Company concluded its fiscal year 2025 with a mixed performance, marked by both achievements and challenges.
  • Financially, Emerson reported $1.62 in adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter, aligning with its expectations.
  • For the full year, adjusted earnings per share increased by 9% to $6, while free cash flow rose 12% year-over-year, reaching $3.24 billion.

Primer: Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Leader with a Wide Moat: Fanuc is a global leader in factory automation, holding significant market share in CNC systems (estimated at 65%) and industrial robots. Its competitive advantages are rooted in technological prowess, a reputation for reliability, high switching costs for customers, and an extensive global service network.
  • Poised to Capitalize on Secular Growth in Automation: The company is well-positioned to benefit from long-term structural tailwinds, including rising labor costs, skilled labor shortages, reshoring of manufacturing, and increased demand for automation in emerging sectors like electric vehicle (EV) production and electronics.
  • Cyclical Headwinds and Competitive Intensity Present Risks: Fanuc’s financial performance is closely tied to global capital expenditure cycles, making it susceptible to economic downturns. The factory automation market is also highly competitive, with major players like ABB, Yaskawa, and Siemens vying for market share, which can pressure pricing and margins.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL): Infrastructure Play Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Cardinal Infrastructure sets terms for its IPO and could raise up to $253 million if priced at the high end of the range. 
  • Cardinal Infrastructure offers full-service, in-house wet utility and site work solutions in fast-growing Southeastern markets, benefiting from strong demand, population growth, and reduced outsourcing needs.
  • A proven acquisition-led expansion strategy, deep customer relationships, and high repeat revenue underpin robust growth, a strong backlog, and successful market penetration in new geographies.

Watts Water Technologies: Inside the Haws Deal- What Will This Power Acquisition Unlock?

By Baptista Research

  • Watts Water Technologies reported strong results for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations with reported sales reaching a record $612 million.
  • This performance was supported by a notable 9% increase in organic sales, driven largely by favorable pricing, robust demand in the Americas, and strategic acquisitions like I-CON and EasyWater.
  • These acquisitions, along with advantageous foreign exchange movements, compensated for a decline in Europe and stagnant performance in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa (APMEA) regions.

Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 21 to Nov 27, with a S$552 million outflow.
  • Engro Corporation Chairman Tan Cheng Gay increased his interest to 25.01% by acquiring 11,870,000 shares at S$0.725 each.
  • Sanli Environmental proposed a placement of up to 38,492,404 shares at S$0.260 each, raising up to S$10,008,025.

Sell Millrose Properties

By Richard Howe

  • I’m closing out my LEN/MRP odd lot trade recommendation and will be selling my MRP shares.
  • The total return if you took advantage of the odd lot provision was +1.9% / + $235 less than the expected return of +6.4% / $772.
  • The driver of the underperformance? MRP sold off in mi- November given market weakness and hasn’t fully recovered.

MTT Shipping and Logistics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

  • MTT Shipping and Logistics (1994098D MK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB and CLSA.
  • MTT Shipping and Logistics (MTT) is a Malaysian company engaged in the provision of container liner shipping, vessel chartering, container depot operations, and related logistics services.
  • Through its subsidiaries, the Group operates an integrated shipping and logistics ecosystem that connects Peninsular Malaysia, East Malaysia, Brunei, and selected regional markets including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: African Gold Ltd, Havilah Resources, Venus Metals Corp, Gold, Welspun Corp, Crude Oil, Getchell Gold , KNOT Offshore Partners LP, Lincotrade & Associates Holdings, Magna Terra Minerals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)
  • The Copper Sleeper that Nobody’s Watching (Anthony Kavanagh)
  • Venus Metals Faces Hostile Takeover Bid from QGold Amid Potential for Higher Offers and Asset Valuation Discrepancies
  • (Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario
  • The Beat Ideas: Welspun Corp – The Three-Continent Infrastructure Proxy, Rerating Beyond Cyclicality
  • Oil futures: Crude firmer after Black Sea attack, OPEC+ pause
  • Getchell Gold Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition
  • Strategic Buyouts, Mergers and Arbitrage: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas
  • Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement
  • MTT: Grab Sample Assays & Newly Staked Land at Rocky Brook


African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

By David Blennerhassett

  • The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. 
  • Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
  • That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.

The Copper Sleeper that Nobody’s Watching (Anthony Kavanagh)

By Money of Mine

  • The speaker discusses their interest in an intriguing South Australian undeveloped copper stock called Havilah (HAV)
  • The speaker shares their initial encounter with the company in 2022 and their impression of its potential value and optionality of assets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Venus Metals Faces Hostile Takeover Bid from QGold Amid Potential for Higher Offers and Asset Valuation Discrepancies

By Special Situation Investments

  • QGold’s hostile takeover offer for Venus Metals at A$0.17/share is expected to increase, with VMS stock trading at A$0.195/share.
  • VMC’s assets in Rox Resources are valued at A$46m, with a 1% net smelter royalty potentially undervalued due to outdated assumptions.
  • Christopher Wallin’s QGold has acquired a 26% stake in VMC and a 9% stake in Rox Resources, indicating strategic interest.

(Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario

By The Commodity Report

  • Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.
  • Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.
  • Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

The Beat Ideas: Welspun Corp – The Three-Continent Infrastructure Proxy, Rerating Beyond Cyclicality

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The record INR23,500 Cr order book, anchored by a structural demand shift for US data center gas pipelines, validates the company’s large-scale global capex strategy in the US and KSA.
  • The pivot from cyclical line pipes to stable B2C (Sintex) and structurally funded growth drivers (Vision 2030, AI energy) fundamentally de-risks the earnings profile and warrants a higher valuation multiple.
  • With net cash and improving ROCE, WCL is transitioning from a cyclical steel player to a quality infrastructure compounder; investors should focus on the strategic segment mix and execution speed.

Oil futures: Crude firmer after Black Sea attack, OPEC+ pause

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures opened firmer after weekend events, including an attack on the key Black Sea port and OPEC+ maintaining its no change policy for Q1, which improved sentiment.
  • Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.23/b (2003 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.40/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.43/b against a previous close of $58.55/b.
  • Benchmarks strengthened as CPC suspended crude loadings at Novorossiysk early Saturday after an unmanned-boat strike tore into one of its offshore moorings, the latest in a string of attacks on the Black Sea export hub.

Getchell Gold Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Gold held strong in the low-$4,000/oz range (rising at the end of the month), silver extended its rally with an 18.5% increase, while copper capped off the month above $5.25/lb.
  • • Mining equities rebounded sharply in November, with the GDX (+15.5%), GDXJ (+16.6%), SILJ (+16.7%), and COPX (+4.1%) massively outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +0.4%, TSX +3.8%).
  • • Policy momentum improved as the U.S. added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, G20 leaders opposed export restrictions, and Canada signalled support for equity positions in mining projects.

Strategic Buyouts, Mergers and Arbitrage: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

  • KNOT Offshore Partners received a $10/unit take-private offer; potential for improved bid due to unitholder approval requirement.
  • Golden Entertainment’s chairman offers at 1x EBITDA; shareholder approval could lead to a 15%+ price increase.
  • TrueCar’s founder-led buyout at $2.55/share; 26% shareholder support; deal expected to close by early 2026.

Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 21 to Nov 27, with a S$552 million outflow.
  • Engro Corporation Chairman Tan Cheng Gay increased his interest to 25.01% by acquiring 11,870,000 shares at S$0.725 each.
  • Sanli Environmental proposed a placement of up to 38,492,404 shares at S$0.260 each, raising up to S$10,008,025.

MTT: Grab Sample Assays & Newly Staked Land at Rocky Brook

By Atrium Research

  • MTT confirmed near-surface gold at Fournier Lake with assays up to 2.11 g/t Au, marking the first follow-up since the 2023 discovery and validating the zone’s structural potential.
  • MTT expanded its land position by staking an additional 8,829ha.
  • Rocky Brook now spans 28,024ha and sits along 30km of the Rocky Brook-Millstream Fault, beside Kinross-Puma’s Property.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Emerson Electric Co, Fanuc Corp, Cardinal Infrastructure, Watts Water Technologies A, Lincotrade & Associates Holdings, Millrose Properties, MTT Shipping and Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Emerson Electric’s Bold Power Play: Tapping Into a New Energy Supercycle!
  • Primer: Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) – Dec 2025
  • Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL): Infrastructure Play Sets Terms for IPO
  • Watts Water Technologies: Inside the Haws Deal- What Will This Power Acquisition Unlock?
  • Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement
  • Sell Millrose Properties
  • MTT Shipping and Logistics Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Emerson Electric’s Bold Power Play: Tapping Into a New Energy Supercycle!

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric Manufacturing Company concluded its fiscal year 2025 with a mixed performance, marked by both achievements and challenges.
  • Financially, Emerson reported $1.62 in adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter, aligning with its expectations.
  • For the full year, adjusted earnings per share increased by 9% to $6, while free cash flow rose 12% year-over-year, reaching $3.24 billion.

Primer: Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Leader with a Wide Moat: Fanuc is a global leader in factory automation, holding significant market share in CNC systems (estimated at 65%) and industrial robots. Its competitive advantages are rooted in technological prowess, a reputation for reliability, high switching costs for customers, and an extensive global service network.
  • Poised to Capitalize on Secular Growth in Automation: The company is well-positioned to benefit from long-term structural tailwinds, including rising labor costs, skilled labor shortages, reshoring of manufacturing, and increased demand for automation in emerging sectors like electric vehicle (EV) production and electronics.
  • Cyclical Headwinds and Competitive Intensity Present Risks: Fanuc’s financial performance is closely tied to global capital expenditure cycles, making it susceptible to economic downturns. The factory automation market is also highly competitive, with major players like ABB, Yaskawa, and Siemens vying for market share, which can pressure pricing and margins.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL): Infrastructure Play Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Cardinal Infrastructure sets terms for its IPO and could raise up to $253 million if priced at the high end of the range. 
  • Cardinal Infrastructure offers full-service, in-house wet utility and site work solutions in fast-growing Southeastern markets, benefiting from strong demand, population growth, and reduced outsourcing needs.
  • A proven acquisition-led expansion strategy, deep customer relationships, and high repeat revenue underpin robust growth, a strong backlog, and successful market penetration in new geographies.

Watts Water Technologies: Inside the Haws Deal- What Will This Power Acquisition Unlock?

By Baptista Research

  • Watts Water Technologies reported strong results for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations with reported sales reaching a record $612 million.
  • This performance was supported by a notable 9% increase in organic sales, driven largely by favorable pricing, robust demand in the Americas, and strategic acquisitions like I-CON and EasyWater.
  • These acquisitions, along with advantageous foreign exchange movements, compensated for a decline in Europe and stagnant performance in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa (APMEA) regions.

Singtel Tops Buybacks; Soon Hock & Engro Chairs Boost Stakes; Sanli Eyes Growth with Placement

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 21 to Nov 27, with a S$552 million outflow.
  • Engro Corporation Chairman Tan Cheng Gay increased his interest to 25.01% by acquiring 11,870,000 shares at S$0.725 each.
  • Sanli Environmental proposed a placement of up to 38,492,404 shares at S$0.260 each, raising up to S$10,008,025.

Sell Millrose Properties

By Richard Howe

  • I’m closing out my LEN/MRP odd lot trade recommendation and will be selling my MRP shares.
  • The total return if you took advantage of the odd lot provision was +1.9% / + $235 less than the expected return of +6.4% / $772.
  • The driver of the underperformance? MRP sold off in mi- November given market weakness and hasn’t fully recovered.

MTT Shipping and Logistics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Hong Jie Seow

  • MTT Shipping and Logistics (1994098D MK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB and CLSA.
  • MTT Shipping and Logistics (MTT) is a Malaysian company engaged in the provision of container liner shipping, vessel chartering, container depot operations, and related logistics services.
  • Through its subsidiaries, the Group operates an integrated shipping and logistics ecosystem that connects Peninsular Malaysia, East Malaysia, Brunei, and selected regional markets including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: XD Inc., Samsung Electronics, Suzhou Novosense Microelectron, Meesho, NVIDIA Corp, Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Ahnlab Inc, Celestica, AViC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
  • [2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade
  • Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Strong Growth but Lacks Margin Stability
  • Meesho Ltd Pre-IPO – Mass-Market Player Scaling on Low-Cost, High-Frequency Commerce
  • NVDA Tactical Outlook: Time to BUY?
  • Clearwater Analytics: A Tale Of Platform Expansion Through Enfusion and Beacon
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (October and November 2025)
  • Meesho IPO: Garmenting a Mass Market Play for Long-Term Growth
  • Primer: Celestica (CLS US) – Dec 2025
  • avic(9554 JP) – Establishing Reputation as a Quality Company…


KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

By Brian Freitas


[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

By Jay Cameron

  • Samsung is positioned as a global hub for the AI Supercycle, driven by a pivot to memory technology, and evidenced by a KRW 450T ($310 billion) local investment plan.
  • The Device Solutions division’s Q3 2025 rebound (sales +19% sequentially) and an estimated 43.4% Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR support potential upside for the stock
  • The company has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing shareholder value by completing its 10T share repurchase program ahead of schedule and maintaining a consistent annual dividend payout through 2026.

Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Strong Growth but Lacks Margin Stability

By Sumeet Singh

  • Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, aims to raise around US$285m in its H-share listing.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Meesho Ltd Pre-IPO – Mass-Market Player Scaling on Low-Cost, High-Frequency Commerce

By Akshat Shah

  • Meesho Ltd (1546271D IN) is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

NVDA Tactical Outlook: Time to BUY?

By Nico Rosti

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) started correcting at the end of October 2025. At the same time, in early November, SoftBank Group announced it was unloading all its NVDA stake. 
  • SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, speaking at an investment forum in Tokyo Monday,  revealed he was reluctant to sell SoftBank’s Nvidia stake, but needed to raise cash for new AI investments.
  • Both companies are very oversold according to our models, NVDA has reached a point where is a good BUY, we present here a new analytics tool, to support this theory.

Clearwater Analytics: A Tale Of Platform Expansion Through Enfusion and Beacon

By Baptista Research

  • Clearwater Analytics delivered robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, marking significant progress for the company.
  • The revenue for the quarter reached $205.1 million, reflecting an impressive year-over-year growth rate of 77%.
  • The annualized recurring revenue (ARR) also increased by the same percentage, reaching $807.5 million.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (October and November 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in October and November 2025.
  • We provide a list of 26 companies in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in October and November 2025.
  • There were three companies with more than 300 billion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in the past two months with at least 1% of outstanding shares.

Meesho IPO: Garmenting a Mass Market Play for Long-Term Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Meesho IPO will comprise a fresh issue of INR42.5B, and an OFS of 105.5M shares. The price band of the IPO has been fixed between INR105 and INR111 per share.
  • Meesho’s IPO will open for subscription on Wednesday, December 3 and close on Friday, December 5. The IPO is scheduled to list on the stock exchanges on Wednesday, December 10.
  • Meesho intends to utilize IPO proceeds for investment for cloud infrastructure, paying salaries of technology team, marketing and brand building initiative, and acquisition. The IPO is suitable for risk-seeking investors.

Primer: Celestica (CLS US) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Strong Growth in High-Margin Segments: Celestica is experiencing robust growth in its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) segment, particularly driven by the demand for AI and data center infrastructure. This strategic shift towards higher-growth, higher-margin markets is a key driver of its improving financial performance.
  • Solid Financial Performance and Outlook: The company has demonstrated strong financial results, with significant year-over-year revenue and earnings per share growth. Management has raised its full-year 2025 guidance and provided a positive outlook for 2026, indicating confidence in sustained momentum.
  • Strategic Position in Key Technology Trends: Celestica is well-positioned to capitalize on major technology trends, including the expansion of data center networking, the adoption of 800G switch technology, and the overall growth in hyperscale capital expenditures. Its expertise in complex electronics manufacturing makes it a critical partner for leading technology companies.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


avic(9554 JP) – Establishing Reputation as a Quality Company…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • AViC (hereinafter referred to as the Company) is a comprehensive digital marketing company that provides integrated services across both Paid (internet advertising) and Non-Paid (SEO/AI consulting, reputation management, etc.) domains.
  • Its strength lies in the complementary integration of Paid services, which enhance short- term customer acquisition efficiency, and Non-Paid services, which build organic search traffic over the medium to long term.
  • In recent years, through M&A deals with companies like FACT Co., Ltd. and Realation Inc., it has expanded its services into purchase-linked areas (e.g., e-commerce sales promotion support, live commerce). 

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Daily Brief Financials: SBI Shinsei Bank, ICICI Bank Ltd, EURO/US DOLLAR, AUD, Superbank, Citic Securities (H), NS Group, Priority Technology Holdings I, China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive
  • NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches
  • SBI Shinsei Bank IPO – Stronger Support, Decent Valuation
  • Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta
  • Global FX Volatility Outlook 2026
  • Superbank IPO: Superb Story, Decent Entry Point
  • Hong Kong December 2025 Monthly Covered Call Report
  • NS Group IPO – Deal Downsized; Pricing Looks Digestible Now
  • Active Merger Arbitrage and Privatization Opportunities: Strategic Reviews, Buyouts, and More
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive

By Arun George


NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches

By Brian Freitas


SBI Shinsei Bank IPO – Stronger Support, Decent Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2.1bn in its Japan listing.
  • SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

By At Any Rate

  • Global team focusing on what’s new for 2026 in terms of market outlook
  • Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience
  • Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Global FX Volatility Outlook 2026

By At Any Rate

  • Macro crew discussed a benign outlook on carry fairly risk on climate for the first half of the year
  • FX vols expected to be fairly contained in 2026 due to factors like US growth and central bank activity
  • Themes for positioning in 2026 include bullish European growth, antipodean FX, and bearish Yen outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Superbank IPO: Superb Story, Decent Entry Point

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Superbank (SUPA IJ) aims to raise around US$184m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Superbank is a digital bank in Indonesia operating through a combination of ecosystem-led distribution and its own standalone mobile application.
  • In our previous note, we looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Hong Kong December 2025 Monthly Covered Call Report

By Nicholas Pezolano

  • Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of December.
  • The top 10 provide an average ~6.9% premium with a potential ~8.4% upside P&L if exercised.
  • Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.

NS Group IPO – Deal Downsized; Pricing Looks Digestible Now

By Akshat Shah

  • NS Group (471A JP) (NSG) is one of Japan’s leading rent guarantee service providers, offering payment guarantee and rent collection solutions to property owners and management companies.
  • NSG aims to raise around US$220m in its Japan IPO via an entirely secondary offering, marking Bain Capital’s full exit from the company.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we talk about the pricing updates and IPO valuations.

Active Merger Arbitrage and Privatization Opportunities: Strategic Reviews, Buyouts, and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Priority Technology received a non-binding privatization offer from its founder at $6-$6.15/share, with a 11%-14% spread.
  • Generation Bio completed restructuring, now a cash shell with net cash at $7.6/share, 50% above current price.
  • Sotherly Hotels’ preferred shares trade with a 12-14% spread to offer price, common shares at 5% spread.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Genting Berhad, Meituan
  • UST yields climbed 1-3 bps on Friday, albeit there were no material catalysts as the market returned after Thanksgiving. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.49%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.01%. Equities climbed on thin trading in a shortened postholiday session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 0.5% and 0.7% to 6,849 and 23,366, respectively.
  • China’s November official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 (49.4 e / 49.0 p), albeit remaining in contraction territory for the eighth straight month. The non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (50.0 e / 50.1 p), with the composite PMI declining to 49.7 (50.0 p).

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Beijing Enlight Media, Fast Fitness Japan Inc, Dodla Dairy, Geely Auto, East Buy Holding , Thunderbird Entertainment Group, TOP TOY International Group, Under Armour, Genting Malaysia and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
  • Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Dec25 Results: 90% Hit Rate (110/121 Correct); US$9.5bn Combined One-Way Flow
  • Fast Fitness Japan (7092 JP): JGIA-Sponsored MBO Is a Done Deal
  • The Beat Ideas: Dodla Dairy: A Story of Value Added Products & Premiumisation
  • Geely (175 HK): In November, Deliveries Still Strongly Up by 24%
  • Primer: East Buy Holding (1797 HK) – Dec 2025
  • Thunderbird Entertainment’s Acquisition by Blue Ant Media: Merger Arbitrage Opportunity
  • Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group – The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook
  • Primer: Under Armour (UAA US) – Dec 2025
  • Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded


[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
  • This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
  • This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Dec25 Results: 90% Hit Rate (110/121 Correct); US$9.5bn Combined One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
  • There will be 11 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
  • The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$5.3bn and US$4.2bn in one-way flows respectively.

Fast Fitness Japan (7092 JP): JGIA-Sponsored MBO Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Fast Fitness Japan Inc (7092 JP) has recommended a JGIA-sponsored MBO at JPY2,315, a 29.3% premium to the undisturbed price (31 October).
  • There was media speculation about a tender offer last month. The offer is arguably light as it is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • This is a done deal as the irrevocables to tender (20.65% ownership ratio) exceed the lower limit of the tender offer (17.12% ownership ratio).

The Beat Ideas: Dodla Dairy: A Story of Value Added Products & Premiumisation

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Dodla is entering a new growth phase with its Maharashtra plant, OSAM integration, premium value-added products, and stronger Africa operations, supported by a solid procurement network.
  • With over 94% direct milk sourcing, better farmer yields through Orgafeed, and a rising VAP mix, Dodla is building a high-return, self-funded growth model.
  • As capex peaks and free cash flows inflect post-FY27, Dodla is transitioning into a structurally compounding dairy platform with improving mix, margins, and regional balance.

Geely (175 HK): In November, Deliveries Still Strongly Up by 24%

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s deliveries grew by 24% YoY in November, reaching 65% of BYD.
  • PHEV continued to accelerate and export deliveries rose strongly by 22% in November.
  • We expect Geely’s stock price will rise by 20% in the next twelve months.

Primer: East Buy Holding (1797 HK) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Business Transformation to Live-Streaming E-commerce: East Buy Holding has pivoted from its origins in online education to a live-streaming e-commerce platform, focusing on the sale of private-label agricultural products and other premium goods. This strategic shift was necessitated by regulatory changes in the Chinese education sector.
  • Financial Performance Under Pressure: The company’s recent financial results show a significant decline in revenue and net profit. For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, total net revenues decreased by 32.7% to RMB 4.4 billion, and net profit plummeted to RMB 6.2 million from RMB 249.1 million in the previous year. This downturn is largely attributed to the disposal of its education business and challenges in its new e-commerce venture, including a heavy reliance on a star livestreamer who has since departed.
  • Evolving Strategy and High Uncertainty: Management is focused on developing its private-label brand, “East Buy,”and expanding its presence across multiple platforms, including its own app and other major e-commerce sites, to reduce reliance on any single channel. However, the business model is still evolving, and the departure of its top influencer has created significant uncertainty around future growth and profitability.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Thunderbird Entertainment’s Acquisition by Blue Ant Media: Merger Arbitrage Opportunity

By Special Situation Investments

  • Thunderbird Entertainment is being acquired by Blue Ant Media for C$1.77/share in cash and 0.2165 BAMI shares.
  • Voss Capital and other major holders, owning 37% of TBRD, support the transaction requiring two-thirds vote approval.
  • The offer implies a 3.4x FY26 EBITDA multiple, dropping to 2.6x with expected C$7m synergies.

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group – The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create “blockbuster proprietary IPs” and reduce reliance on licensing model.
  • Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
  • If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.

Primer: Under Armour (UAA US) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Under Armour is navigating a significant turnaround amid persistent revenue declines and profitability pressures, particularly in its core North American market. The company’s success hinges on the execution of its latest restructuring plan under founder and CEO Kevin Plank.
  • Intense competition from dominant players like Nike and Adidas, as well as high-growth brands like Lululemon, continues to erode market share and pressure margins. The brand is perceived as being caught between performance and fashion, struggling to establish a clear identity with consumers.
  • The forward outlook remains challenging, with management guiding for a low-double-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2025. The strategy involves simplifying the business by reducing SKUs, focusing on premium products, and reinvesting in marketing to rebuild brand strength, though a tangible recovery is not expected until late 2025 at the earliest.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded

By David Blennerhassett

  • Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s unconditional Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) closed yesterday, the 1st December, with GENT holding 73.13%, up from 49.99% initially. 
  • The IFA previously opined the Offer to be NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. A bump in terms, long rumoured, failed to unfold. 
  • Yesterday, GENM was one of three applicants selected by New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board for a full commercial casino license in downtown New York.

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