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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Newmont Mining, Hanwha Ocean, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Japan Post Bank, Adaro Energy, KakaoBank , J&T Global Express, Selvas AI Inc, Alibaba (ADR), Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean’s SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading
  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean’s SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

By Sanghyun Park

  • First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. 
  • If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. 
  • We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn. 
  • Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
  • The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas


Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • L&F will likely be listed on the KOSPI in mid-December. The top reserved issue within the KOSDAQ 150 IT Sector will be added to the index via an ad-hoc change.
  • Selvas AI stands as the foremost candidate for the screened top reserved issue, with a mere two trading days remaining in the six-month screening period.
  • Given the relatively limited proactive position buildup due to more uncertainty regarding timing, the price impact leading up to the effective date might become even more significant.

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

By Eric Chen

  • The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
  • While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
  • Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil & gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)
  • Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV. 
  • Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

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Most Read: Newmont Mining, Eoflow , Elite Material, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Medtronic Plc, Azure Minerals, Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Ecopro BM , KakaoBank , Hollysys Automation Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High
  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life
  • Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
  • Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
  • Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Medtronic’s M&A of Eoflow Timeline Postponed

By Douglas Kim

  • On 25 October, Eoflow announced that the M&A of Eoflow by Medtronic has been postponed. 
  • The closing date for Eoflow’s stock transfer agreement with Medtronic has now been changed to 3 January 2024. 
  • Although we believe Medtronic will continue to pursue Eoflow, the M&A tender offer price could be lowered to about 26,000 won, which would be nearly 20% higher than current price.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF Rebalance Preview: In-The-Money; Turnover & Trade Remain High

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 25 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 19.5% and a one-way trade of US$1.39bn.
  • A long adds/ short deletes trade is up double digits over the last three weeks and there are a few trade adjustments based on the new rankings.

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

EOFlow/Medtronic: Signs of Life

By David Blennerhassett

  • When EOFlow (294090 KS) was suspended on the 11th October, and ceased global sales, either the Medtronic (MDT US) deal was (largely) toast; or it was a tactical move. 
  • I’m firmly in the latter camp. Insulet‘s lawsuit was expected. And completing the transaction enables the more financially and legally resource-rich MDT to become the party to the litigation.
  • The SPA between Jesse Kim and MDT was expected to complete on 25 October. That was not a hard date. It has now been pushed out to 3 January 2024. 

Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

By David Blennerhassett

  • When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
  • This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
  • $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
  • The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
  • This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
  • Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
  • Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction
  • SK Hynix Call Bad News for WDC
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 20-26 October 2023


Ohayo Japan | Tech Tumbles; MHI Develops Co2 Liquefaction

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.2%, Nasdaq -1.9%; Nasdaq now officially in correction mode; Meta warned of advertising softness
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY150.4; Denso to spend $3b on semicons by 2030; KHI revises down on P&W engine losses
  • JapanX: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and its subsidiaries are pioneering CO2 liquefaction from gas engine generators, advancing carbon neutrality goals and carbon capture technologies

SK Hynix Call Bad News for WDC

By Jim Handy

  • SK hynix reported increased DRAM and NAND flash revenues in the third quarter, with DRAM’s price increasing about 10%
  • NAND inventory is higher than DRAM’s so NAND production capacity will not be increased
  • This bodes well for DRAM makers and poorly for NAND makers like WDC and Kioxia

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 20-26 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Daily Brief ECM: J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs
  • Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement
  • Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks


J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Vinfast: New Funding to Support Growth Plans Despite Struggling to Sell EVs

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Vinfast’s shares have fallen more than 80% since its IPO in August. Shares are currently trading at $4.93 per share compared to IPO open price of $22 per share.
  • On 20th October, Vinfast announced that the company has entered into a standby equity subscription agreement of up to $1.0bn with Yorkville Advisors which has a term of 36 months.
  • A majority of Vinfast’s EV sales in 9M2023 were to related parties or affiliates of its parent, raising serious concerns over the company’s ability to establish a market presence.  

Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cello World is looking to raise around US$240m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Cello World (CW) is an Indian consumer products company. The firm is a leading company in the consumerware market in India.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (HC) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

By Ethan Aw

  • Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
  • CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi


Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out
  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?
  • Porsche: Elements of Discussion
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement
  • Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate
  • ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected
  • SHEN: On the Horizon
  • Information Services Corporation – Registering growth
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health


Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Li Ning (2331 HK) is trading down 18% today due to a bad 3Q23 operational date. 
  • Retail sales grew by only mid-single-digit yoy, while same-store-sales recorded a mid-single-digit decline yoy. 
  • Given the operational update, FY23 earnings should be revised down, to likely flat or low-single-digit growth.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) seems to be facing problems in its core BPC segment. 
  • Our casual LinkedIn browsing led us to an interesting post on the company and its practices that warrant attention.
  • We have previously highlighted issues with the way the company has managed its Fashion Business, an attack on the BPC business could compound issues further.

Porsche: Elements of Discussion

By Alexis Dwek

  • Although we are bullish on the Porsche story, we note a few relevant elements of discussion that could pose threats/hurdles/explain share price overhang
  • Conflict of interest: Oliver Blume is both CEO of Porsche and VW. Can you be Porsche’s CEO just part-time?
  • Once upon a time, Porsche had a great story to tell. What’s the new story?

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s numbers made for positive reading with loan growth coming through in productive areas, especially for Kupedes commercial micro-loans but also from its PNM and Pegadaian subsidiaries.
  • The bank maintained its funding costs at highly competitive levels despite rising rates and time deposit growth with NIMs improving due to a better loan mix in micro.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the most direct way to get exposure to greater financial inclusion and the underbanked in Indonesia. Valuations remain attractive with rising ROA and ROE. 

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
  • OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
  • Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships, and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Carly has attracted larger automotive industry businesses as shareholders, with a direct offering and services to support automotive manufacturers and dealers to generate revenue from car subscriptions. 

ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASE’s 3Q23 results came in in-line with analyst estimates, and showed gross margin ticking slightly higher QoQ.
  • Semiconductor Assembly, Testing, and Manufacturing (ATM) capacity utilization remains low, in the mid-60’s percent.
  • Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC or UMC in their recent results.

SHEN: On the Horizon

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
  • SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
  • The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

Information Services Corporation – Registering growth

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation (ISC) has a strong track record of proficiently acquiring and innovating registries and related information services to benefit citizens and businesses in Canada and on a global scale. We expect ISC to continue to generate predictable and growing cash flows due to the non-discretionary nature of its core registry services, bolstered by its recent extension of the Master Service Agreement (MSA) with the Saskatchewan government by 20 years to 2053. Our DCF valuation of C$37/share implies 88% upside to the current share price, reflecting the sustainable, cash-generative nature of the company, encompassing a large, steady-growth Registry business and a fast-growing Services division.


Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health

By Water Tower Research

  • On October 25, Aspira Women’s Health announced that a poster on its in-development miRNA-based ovarian cancer test was presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Special Conference in Cancer Research: Ovarian Cancer.
  • The poster, titled, “Improving the diagnostic accuracy of an ovarian cancer triage test using a joint miRNA-protein model,” highlighted data showing miRNA’s potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive diagnostic tests.
  • The study showed that the addition of miRNA improved the detection of early-stage ovarian cancers and that diagnostic performance improved even further when using a combination of approaches, including miRNA, proteins, and metadata. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
  • Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
  • Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting


Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

By David Blennerhassett

  • When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
  • This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
  • $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
  • The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
  • This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
  • Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
  • Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
  • According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.

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Daily Brief Macro: The Global Liquidity Cycle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Global Liquidity Cycle
  • Out of the Box: Central banks are insolvent. How do we deal with it?
  • 5 Things We Watch – Central Bank Outlook, USDJPY, Natural Gas, Credit & Liquidity
  • Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect
  • EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas
  • US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained
  • EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun
  • CX Daily: China Readies Relaunch of Shelved Carbon Credits Program


The Global Liquidity Cycle

By Michael J. Howell

  • The steepening US Treasury yield curve is consistent with a rising Global Liquidity cycle
  • Independent evidence shows that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 at an index of 11.8 (range 0-100)
  • The next Global Liquidity cycle peak is unlikely before September 2025. The investment cycle is in a Rebound investment phase

Out of the Box: Central banks are insolvent. How do we deal with it?

By Andreas Steno

  • In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
  • This week we look at the insolvent G10 central banks and how to deal with them.
  • It is probably not a newsworthy conclusion to central bank aficionados, but the big question is whether it matters and potentially WHEN it matters.

5 Things We Watch – Central Bank Outlook, USDJPY, Natural Gas, Credit & Liquidity

By Andreas Steno

  • Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil in US equity space amidst the big 7 reporting earnings.
  • The last quarter of the year will most likely define how asset markets will perform well into next 2024 with USDJPY hovering just below the all important 150 handle and global central banks likely heading towards the end of their cutting cycle.
  • As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

By Emil Moller

  • Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.
  • Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.
  • Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.
  • Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.
  • Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

By Anne Sandager

  • The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget.
  • A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed.
  • The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations. 

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

By Emil Moller

  • Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.
  • If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.
  • We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.

CX Daily: China Readies Relaunch of Shelved Carbon Credits Program

By Caixin Global

  • Carbon / In Depth: China readies relaunch of shelved carbon credits program China is one step away from relaunching its voluntary carbon credits program after updating key rules for the system, which it shelved more than six years ago due to a lack of uptake and regulatory issues.
  • Plagiarism /: Chinese artist fined $684,000 in ‘landmark case’ for plagiarizing foreign work

  • Personnel /: China names Lan Foan to be new finance minister


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Daily Brief Australia: Azure Minerals, Carly Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
  • Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer
  • Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate


Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

By David Blennerhassett

  • When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
  • This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
  • $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

By Arun George


Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships, and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Carly has attracted larger automotive industry businesses as shareholders, with a direct offering and services to support automotive manufacturers and dealers to generate revenue from car subscriptions. 

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Daily Brief Thailand: Ngern Tid Lor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand’s SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.
  • I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.

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