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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Alps Logistics, Daikin Industries, Nitto Kogyo, NN , WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple
  • Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774
  • Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – News and Imprecation
  • NNBR: NN Inc. released 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results. The company continues to add new business wins creating a long-term runway for profitable growth.
  • Willscot Mobile Mini Holding (WSC) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024


Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, a specialty media outlet noted Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was up for sale. I missed that. Yesterday pre-close, a headline crossed the wires. A deal was imminent.
  • Nikkei overnight said “¥150bn+ market cap”. I thought KKR might slightly overpay the Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) multiple paid. That meant +13% today was full-ish. I was wrong.
  • KKR is paying ¥5,774 to minorities, and about ¥4,084-ish to the parent, who is reinvesting at ¥5,774. This is a total knock-out price paid. HUGE MINORITY WIN.

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

By Arun George

  • Alps Logistics (9055 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a KKR & Co (KKR US) subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
  • The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.
  • The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. 

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool

By Mark Chadwick

  • FY2023 Success: Daikin achieved record-high sales and profit, driven by FX impacts. Despite challenges like reduced demand, the Air Conditioning business expanded in key markets.
  • Ambitious Targets: FY3/25 targets include surpassing previous financial records, despite continued sluggish demand.
  • Cautious Outlook: While optimistic about market share gains, reservations persist, particularly regarding heat pumps. Stock performance remains steady, trading in line with historical averages.

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – News and Imprecation

By Sessa Investment Research

  • News: The Nikkei on April 25th reported, “A dark cloud is hovering over the future of the electric car (EV) market.
  • The low prices of Chinese EV manufacturers, backed by Chinese government subsidies, are adversely affecting the performance of related companies such as motor giant Nidec Corporation (TSE Prime: 6594).
  • The spread of low-cost EVs will substantially change the structure of the industry, and investors are beginning to look out for companies that will benefit from the commoditization of EVs.

NNBR: NN Inc. released 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results. The company continues to add new business wins creating a long-term runway for profitable growth.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • NN Inc. is a high quality diversified industrial company that combines in-depth materials science expertise with advanced engineering and production capabilities to design and manufacture high-precision metal and plastic components and assemblies for a variety of end markets on a global basis.
  • The company is targeting the electric vehicle and electric grid industries which should grow at above average growth rates.
  • In 2023, the company began a series of strategic initiatives to strengthen leadership, improve profitability, and generate higher levels of free cash flow.

Willscot Mobile Mini Holding (WSC) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WillScot Mobile Mini has completed significant acquisitions to strengthen its leadership position in modular office and mobile storage industries.
  • The company believes in seizing no-brainer opportunities for acquisitions despite warnings from renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
  • WillScot Mobile Mini focuses on strategic advantages, organic growth, high returns on investment, and disciplined valuation methodologies to create long-term shareholder value.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Anhui Conch Cement, PetroTal, VAALCO Energy, Valeura Energy Inc, Valvoline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices
  • Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): Increasingly Favourable Odds
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Acquisition in Peru – More than Meets the Eye
  • VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good quarter. Gearing-up for growth
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Financials in line. Operations on track.
  • Valvoline Inc (VVV) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024


Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

By Suhas Reddy

  • US commercial crude oil inventory fell by 1.36 million barrels for the week ending on 3/May, after rising by 7.3 million barrels the week before.
  • EIA increased its global liquid fuels production for 2024 and 2025 by 110,000 bpd and 40,000 bpd, respectively.
  • EIA forecasts OPEC’s spare production capacity around 4 million bpd through 2025.

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): Increasingly Favourable Odds

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Stable cement price, good cost control, and a better base for comparison will lift Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)‘s profitability recovery in 2-4Q24.  
  • Anhui Conch’s earnings outperformed in 1Q24. Its peers are making losses and hence will reduce excess supply. Stabilisation of the real estate market will lower the pressure on demand.
  • Net cash equals 46% of the current share price, and its valuations (both PER and P/B) are inexpensive relative to peers and ROE.  

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Acquisition in Peru – More than Meets the Eye

By Auctus Advisors

  • PetroTal is acquiring Block 131 onshore Peru including the Los Angeles field from CEPSA for US$5 mm.
  • The field produces ~900 boe/d from 4 existing wells and holds 4.9 mmbbl of 40-45 deg API oil 2P reserves.
  • We estimate that 3 new wells (at ~US$12 mm per well) could increase production to 2-3 mbbl/d.

VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good quarter. Gearing-up for growth

By Auctus Advisors

  • 1Q24 WI production was 21,807 boe/d, in line with our expectations.
  • VAALCO held ~US$113 mm in cash at the end of March, which is also in line.
  • With the completion of the acquisition of Svenska, the company now expects to produce 23.6-26.5 mboe/d in FY24.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Financials in line. Operations on track.

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The 1Q24 production of 21.9 mbbl/d and cash position of ~US$194 mm at the end of March had been reported previously.
  • • Operations are on track.
  • Drilling is underway at the Nong Yao A platform, with two new wells that are expected to be completed in the coming week.

Valvoline Inc (VVV) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Valvoline is the largest pure-play operator in the oil change industry, trading at around 16 times estimated FY25 EPS
  • The company plans to accelerate unit growth from 140 to 250 openings per year over the next five years
  • Valvoline has a focus on driving incremental ticket growth and strong competition in the market, positioning it for success with a solid foundation from its long history in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Infocom Corp, AEM, CELSYS, SK Hynix, HYBE , Shouhui Tech, Tower Semiconductor , Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Xperi and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Infocom (4348 JP): Rumoured Tender Offer as Teijin Seeks to Exit
  • AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2024)
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-May-2024): Samsung and LG launch new gaming/ AI monitors in market recovery.
  • Netmarble Plans to Sell 2.6% Stake in HYBE Through PRS (Price Return Swap).
  • Shouhui Tech Pre-IPO – Profitability Recovered but Hardly Stands Out as a Middleman
  • TSEM: Tower’s Revenues May Have Bottomed Sequential Improvement is Expected Going Forward
  • SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.
  • XPER: Design Wins into Revenue


Infocom (4348 JP): Rumoured Tender Offer as Teijin Seeks to Exit

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Teijin Ltd (3401 JP) wants to sell its 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP). The rumoured bidders are Sony Corp (6758 JP), Blackstone and KKR. 
  • Based on precedents, the offer structure will likely be structured such that Teijin provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote in favour of share consolidation at the EGM.
  • Bloomberg suggests that Infocom could be valued at JPY200 billion. If this refers to market cap, the tender offer is JPY3,472, a 16.5% premium to the last close.

AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.
  • AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.
  • AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer Intel Corp (INTC US). Long-term investors should accumulate here. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Dozens of companies have been able to meet the key Section Transfer requirements on paper for several months but there have been no TOPIX Inclusions announcements in 2024 so far. 
  • However, there are some pre-event candidates we believe are worth monitoring as they have previously confirmed their desire to move to the Prime Market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-May-2024): Samsung and LG launch new gaming/ AI monitors in market recovery.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Samsung and LG are launching new gaming and AI-focused monitors to take advantage of the recovering market.
  • Tata Elxsi is collaborating with Arm on self-driving vehicle solutions, while Saudi fund considers cutting ties with China for US chips and AI.
  • Samsung and SK Hynix are competing in the HBM market, driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory solutions. Toyota plans to invest JPY2 trillion in supply chain, EV, and SDV, with Tata making progress in semiconductor manufacturing.

Netmarble Plans to Sell 2.6% Stake in HYBE Through PRS (Price Return Swap).

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 9 May, Netmarble announced that it plans to sell 2.6% stake in HYBE for 219.9 billion won. 
  • The transaction is based on PRS (price return swap) basis. Previous to this deal, Netmarble sold 2.5 million shares (about 6%) of HYBE shares in November 2023. 
  • We continue to remain negative on HYBE including on this deal involving Netmarble’s plan to sell additional 2.6% stake in HYBE.

Shouhui Tech Pre-IPO – Profitability Recovered but Hardly Stands Out as a Middleman

By Ethan Aw

  • Shouhui Tech (SHOU HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Shouhui Tech (Shouhui) is an online life and health insurance intermediary service provider in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

TSEM: Tower’s Revenues May Have Bottomed Sequential Improvement is Expected Going Forward

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Tower is a pure-play analog semiconductor wafer foundry that manufactures SiGe, MEMS, RF, embedded flash-based memory, analog/mixed-signal, and CMOS image-sensor devices in the US, Israel, and Japan.
  • It is serving markets in mobile such as RF High Position analog, as well as in CMOS image sensors, and power management.
  • It also added a new fab in Italy in partnership with STMicro that has just started shipping product and whose capacity will continue to ramp over the next two years.

SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

By Patrick Liao

  • It’s an exciting 1Q24 result that revenue and GM beat the prior guidance.
  • The 2Q24 outlook appears to be better than 1Q24, with revenue expected to increase by 5% to 7% QoQ and GM by 9% to 11%.
  • We consider the primary bottleneck is the embargo of EUV machines to China from the Netherlands.

XPER: Design Wins into Revenue

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER made further progress on product placement in the first quarter contributing to expecting revenue acceleration heading into the second half of 2024.
  • XPER reported first quarter results that included the announcement of a new Japanese TV brand that would begin using TiVo in a line of its TVs
  • Over the last couple of quarters XPER has announced several wins for its connected car and media platform segments. These wins have developed into revenue for XPER

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shofu Inc, Classys, Rani Therapeutics Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Shofu (7979 JP) – Hiking Production and Demonstrating Confidence in Future Growth
  • Classys (214150 KS): Beautiful Journey Continues; Record High Revenue and Operating Profit in 1Q24
  • RANI: 1Q:24 Results


Shofu (7979 JP) – Hiking Production and Demonstrating Confidence in Future Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Committing to raising production capacity –Shofu announced its fifth medium-term plan, covering the four years from FY3/25 to FY3/28.
  • The core message is that the company has competitive products and high demand visibility in overseas markets, and is reaching the point of attaining annual sales volume of ¥50bn.
  • The plan will involve significant capital allocation to raise production capacity and other business investments to meet its goals. zed.

Classys (214150 KS): Beautiful Journey Continues; Record High Revenue and Operating Profit in 1Q24

By Tina Banerjee

  • Classys (214150 KS) started 2024 on a strong note with highest ever quarterly revenue and operating profit in 1Q24. Faster-than-expected consumables orders from overseas markets drove the overall performance.
  • The proportion of consumable sales rose to 53% (1Q23: 48% and 4Q23: 43%), increasing by 42% and 32% QoQ. Increasing contribution from high-margin consumables sales improved the profitability substantially.
  • Favorable industry tailwind, global expansion, and new launches remain main growth drivers. Classys still expects 2024 revenue of KRW225B, up 25% YoY. In April, Classys obtained FDA approval for Volnewmer.

RANI: 1Q:24 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Rani is a clinical-stage biotherapeutics company developing the ingestible robotic RaniPill (RP) that enables oral delivery of biologics & other large molecules.
  • Its pipeline features clinical assets RT-102 (teriparatide for osteoporosis) & RT-111 (ustekinumab for psoriasis).
  • Both programs have completed Ph1 trials characterizing safety tolerability & pharmaco-kinetics.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Alps Logistics, Daikin Industries, Nitto Kogyo, NN , WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple
  • Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774
  • Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – News and Imprecation
  • NNBR: NN Inc. released 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results. The company continues to add new business wins creating a long-term runway for profitable growth.
  • Willscot Mobile Mini Holding (WSC) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024


Logisteed/KKR Bid BIGLY for Alps Logistics (9055). A Gobsmacking Price/Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, a specialty media outlet noted Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was up for sale. I missed that. Yesterday pre-close, a headline crossed the wires. A deal was imminent.
  • Nikkei overnight said “¥150bn+ market cap”. I thought KKR might slightly overpay the Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) multiple paid. That meant +13% today was full-ish. I was wrong.
  • KKR is paying ¥5,774 to minorities, and about ¥4,084-ish to the parent, who is reinvesting at ¥5,774. This is a total knock-out price paid. HUGE MINORITY WIN.

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

By Arun George

  • Alps Logistics (9055 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a KKR & Co (KKR US) subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
  • The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.
  • The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. 

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool

By Mark Chadwick

  • FY2023 Success: Daikin achieved record-high sales and profit, driven by FX impacts. Despite challenges like reduced demand, the Air Conditioning business expanded in key markets.
  • Ambitious Targets: FY3/25 targets include surpassing previous financial records, despite continued sluggish demand.
  • Cautious Outlook: While optimistic about market share gains, reservations persist, particularly regarding heat pumps. Stock performance remains steady, trading in line with historical averages.

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – News and Imprecation

By Sessa Investment Research

  • News: The Nikkei on April 25th reported, “A dark cloud is hovering over the future of the electric car (EV) market.
  • The low prices of Chinese EV manufacturers, backed by Chinese government subsidies, are adversely affecting the performance of related companies such as motor giant Nidec Corporation (TSE Prime: 6594).
  • The spread of low-cost EVs will substantially change the structure of the industry, and investors are beginning to look out for companies that will benefit from the commoditization of EVs.

NNBR: NN Inc. released 1st quarter 2024 financial and operating results. The company continues to add new business wins creating a long-term runway for profitable growth.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • NN Inc. is a high quality diversified industrial company that combines in-depth materials science expertise with advanced engineering and production capabilities to design and manufacture high-precision metal and plastic components and assemblies for a variety of end markets on a global basis.
  • The company is targeting the electric vehicle and electric grid industries which should grow at above average growth rates.
  • In 2023, the company began a series of strategic initiatives to strengthen leadership, improve profitability, and generate higher levels of free cash flow.

Willscot Mobile Mini Holding (WSC) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WillScot Mobile Mini has completed significant acquisitions to strengthen its leadership position in modular office and mobile storage industries.
  • The company believes in seizing no-brainer opportunities for acquisitions despite warnings from renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
  • WillScot Mobile Mini focuses on strategic advantages, organic growth, high returns on investment, and disciplined valuation methodologies to create long-term shareholder value.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Melco International Development, H World Group , Sido Muncul, Cash Converters Intl, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, British American Tobacco , Inter Parfums, Kambi Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (9 May 2024): Lawrence Adds More Melco; Ng Adds More Sino Land
  • H World Group Limited (HTHT) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024
  • Sido Muncul (SIDO): Take Your Win First
  • Cash Converters International – Tracking well
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: 1Q Beginning of a Powerful Turn; Raising PT to $25, Reiterate Buy
  • Any Manager Can Simply Implement Shareholder Returns
  • British American Tobacco: Clearing the Air – [Business Breakdowns, EP.162]
  • IPAR: Aroma of a Release Schedule
  • Kambi Group (KAMBI) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024


HK CEO & Director Dealings (9 May 2024): Lawrence Adds More Melco; Ng Adds More Sino Land

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include Melco International Development (200 HK), Sino Land Co (83 HK), and ZJLD Group (6979 HK).

H World Group Limited (HTHT) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Hotel rooms in China decreased by 5.4% compared to the previous year
  • H World has maintained its position as a leading hotel operator in China with a diverse portfolio of brands
  • Founder Qi Ji’s strong track record in the hospitality industry has contributed to H World’s success in navigating challenges and growing its presence in the industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sido Muncul (SIDO): Take Your Win First

By Henry Soediarko

  • Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) had a poor Q2-Q3 numbers, and investors sold off. 
  • The recent uptick is driven by revenue growth and cost cutting exercises (mainly in wages) that improve margins.  
  • Productivity may not stay at the same level thus Q2 24 numbers are key. Take your win first. 

Cash Converters International – Tracking well

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV released a solid Q3 FY24 unaudited trading update with revenue growth of 19% over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $93.0m.
  • The gross loan book has grown 9% to $292m, which is all the more impressive as the business transitions away from Small Amount Credit Contract (SACC) products due to regulatory change, more than offset by growth in other products, domestically and internationally.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: 1Q Beginning of a Powerful Turn; Raising PT to $25, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our pice target to $25 (from $14), and upping our projections for a.k.a. Brands after the company registered better-than-expected revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for 1Q24 and raised 2024 guidance, driven by strong domestic results, as all the company’s concepts continue to gain market share in the United States via new stores, expanding digital marketplace relationships and the “test and repeat” method driving newness and fashion excitement.
  • Further, we believe the Australian operations, especially Culture Kings, are setting up for a 2H24 turn, with leaner inventories and better product mix.
  • As such, even after raising our projections, we believe upside remains in 2H24 and 2025 and are confident raising our price target to $25 and reiterating our Buy rating on AKA.

Any Manager Can Simply Implement Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Profit margins boosted by cuts in personnel, R&D, CapEx, and corporate tax rates. Much of the improved free cash flow went onto the balance sheet instead of being invested.
  • OP Margin’s sluggish growth indicates that the cost-cutting model is no longer working. Investments are needed to create products with higher gross margins.
  • While the limitations of the cost-cutting model can be seen, ROE, which indicates the achievement of the management goal of increasing medium-to-long-term shareholder returns, is sluggish in many companies.

British American Tobacco: Clearing the Air – [Business Breakdowns, EP.162]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Business Breakdowns podcast covers British American Tobacco with guest Evan Tindall
  • British American Tobacco primarily sells tobacco, with significant presence in the US, Europe, and Asia
  • Company’s profits are more weighted towards the US market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


IPAR: Aroma of a Release Schedule

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR reported first quarter results detailing how consumer demand for fragrances has yet to wane even in a difficult to compare period
  • In a change of strategy than prior years, IPAR is spending more in the early parts of the year to build awareness for its lineup of products 
  • With one quarter past, we believe Lacoste and Roberto Cavalli are additive to the investment story and not the year’s only topic

Kambi Group (KAMBI) – Thursday, Feb 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • I am long shares of Kambi (“Kambi” or the “Company”) because I believe the Company is worth over 170 – 200 SEK / share today – This represents a 20% – 32% margin of safety to the current share price of ~136 SEK
  • If I am wrong about this, I think Kambi is its growing intrinsic value and will still be worth at least 200 SEK / share (likely closer to 250 SEK / share) over the next 2 – 4 years, which would generate a mid-teens IRR or higher from the current share price
  • Several free options / catalysts (some of which I believe are inevitable) are not priced into the stock and could drive returns substantially higher (20%+ IRR). Multiple expansion is also a lever that could drive further returns.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Ethereum, Lippo Karawaci and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Lippo Malls Indonesia – Event Flash – Exchange Offer For 2024 Notes; Q1 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Crypto Moves #27 – Rollups Leave Ethereum in the Dust
  • Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, Lippo Karawaci, SJM Holdings, Softbank Group


Lippo Malls Indonesia – Event Flash – Exchange Offer For 2024 Notes; Q1 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Yesterday, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) launched an exchange offer for the USD 7.25% 2024 notes maturing on June 19th, with an outstanding amount of USD 138.4 mn. The company has offered to exchange each of the USD 1,000 principal of the notes for USD 432 of USD 7.5% 2026 notes and a USD 600 cash payment. The funding will come from a credit facility of up to IDR 1.5 tn.

We recommend that holders of the 2024 notes participate in the offer. Considering that it requires 70% of holders to take part, holding out could cause the transaction to fall through, with LMIRT then defaulting on the notes.


Crypto Moves #27 – Rollups Leave Ethereum in the Dust

By Mads Eberhardt

  • On March 13, nearly two months ago, Ethereum implemented its most significant upgrade in the past 20 months, marking a notable development since the Ethereum Merge on September 15, 2022.
  • Known as Dencun or Cancun-Deneb, this upgrade introduced the highly anticipated Proto-Danksharding feature, designed to significantly improve the scalability of Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions, also known as rollups.
  • This enhancement has allowed rollups to drastically reduce transaction costs by approximately five to 10 times, while also stabilizing their cost fluctuations.

Morning Views Asia: China Oil And Gas, Lippo Karawaci, SJM Holdings, Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Australia: Perpetual Ltd, Qantm Intellectual Property, Pioneer Credit and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out
  • Qantm IP (QIP AU): IPH Enters the Fray with a Competing Offer
  • QANTM (QIP AU): IPH Wades In As Adamantem Tarries
  • Pioneer Credit Ltd – Expected investment guidance upgrade


Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in December last year, Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)‘s $3bn all-scrip non-binding indicative proposal. 
  • Yet Soul Patt’s proposal was in sync with Perpetual’s previously flagged intentions to explore a potential separation of its corporate trust and wealth management businesses, from its asset management business.
  • Perpetual has now entered a Scheme, to carve out the corporate trust and wealth management businesses to KKR for A$2.175bn. A lack of clarity on net proceeds saw shares rollover.

Qantm IP (QIP AU): IPH Enters the Fray with a Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU)‘s non-binding proposal from IPH Ltd (IPH AU) is at A$0.11 cash + 0.291 IPH shares per QIP share, a 4.5% premium to Adamantem’s A$1.817 offer.
  • Since announcing the Adamantem non-binding proposal on 14 March, the IPH offer has been 4.3% higher than the Adamantem offer on average. 
  • The IPH proposal also requires approval from the ACCC and NZCC. The presence of two bidders increases the probability of a binding proposal (with a bump). 

QANTM (QIP AU): IPH Wades In As Adamantem Tarries

By David Blennerhassett

  • It always seemed like a question of when, not if, IPH (IPH AU) would make an Offer for QANTM (QIP AU). IPH previously approached QANTM in 2018, but was spurned.
  • Capitalising on ongoing extensions to Adamantem’s exclusivity, as it relates to its all-cash A$1.817/share Offer by way of a Scheme, IPH has now tabled an all-scrip, plus A$0.11/share dividend NBIO.
  • IPH’s implied Scheme value of A$1.90/share is a premium to Adamantem’s proposal. The catch: apart from terms being indicative, IPH’s Offer requires ACCC and NZCC clearance.

Pioneer Credit Ltd – Expected investment guidance upgrade

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
  • PNC purchases debt from numerous Australian vendor partners (18 different vendors in the past 12 months) with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
  • Pioneer’s success in purchasing large debt portfolios at attractive IRRs since October highlights the strong position the company occupies in the marketplace, now enhanced by the recent purchases on attractive IRRs.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Naver Corp, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Innospace, ICTK, Samsung Sds and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Naver: Under Pressure from the Japanese Government To Sell Its Stake in LINE
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS): Nearing KOSPI200 Index Inclusion in June
  • Innospace IPO Preview
  • ICTK IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Local Institutional Flows Towards Overweighting Samsung SDS in Samsung Group Context


Naver: Under Pressure from the Japanese Government To Sell Its Stake in LINE

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 May, it was mentioned in numerous local media that Naver is under pressure from the Japanese government to sell its stake in LINE.
  • One of the reasons behind Japanese government’s efforts to force Naver to sell its stake in LINE is due a major data breach incident in November 2023.
  • Based on our current understanding of this situation, the most likely scenario is for Naver to sell about 20-30% stake in A Holdings (the controlling shareholder of LINE) to SoftBank.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS): Nearing KOSPI200 Index Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas


Innospace IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Innospace is getting ready to complete its IPO in June 2024. According to bankers’ valuation, the implied market cap of Innospace is from 347 billion won to 434 billion won.
  • Innospace engages in the satellite launch vehicle production and launch service business.
  • The company estimates its sales to increase from 0.2 billion won in 2023 to 2.0 billion won in 2024, 47.8 billion won in 2025, and 97.2 billion won in 2026.

ICTK IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK’s IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology called PUF which is a cutting-edge technology during the chip manufacturing process.
  • Our base case valuation is implied market cap of 376.8 billion won or target price of 28,694 won, which is 43% higher than the IPO price (20,000 won).

Local Institutional Flows Towards Overweighting Samsung SDS in Samsung Group Context

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local institutions, notably pension funds, are increasingly investing in Samsung SDS, coinciding with the company’s more active investor engagement. This has sparked speculation about Samsung’s strategic motives.
  • Timing-Wise, as AI infra demands rise in Samsung Group, conditions for boosting SDS’s performance improve. They monitor Samsung’s moves to drive SDS’s stock upward, considering its reliance on Samsung’s revenue.
  • Local pension funds actively adopting overweight positions in Samsung SDS underscore the importance of crafting strategies tailored to overweighting SDS within the broader Samsung Group context.

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Daily Brief United States: KLA-Tencor Corp, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, ADT , Games Global , Bentley Systems , Mastech Digital , AppFolio Inc A, Lyondellbasell Indu Cl A, Roper Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: The Pioneer Expansion & The Expansion of ExxonMobil’s Guyana Operations! – Major Drivers
  • Phillips 66: Potential For Expanded Flexibility With Trans Mountain Pipeline & Other Major Developments
  • ADT Inc.: A Streamlined Business Model Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Games Global IPO: Strong Profitability and Impressive Portfolios of IGaming Content
  • Bentley Systems: The Infrastructure Software Giant Poised for a Major Buyout? What Value Can It Extract? – Major Drivers
  • MHH: Mastech Sees Demand Improvement as Customers Loosen Their Purse Strings
  • AppFolio Inc.: Is Its Revenue Growth Sustainable? – Major Drivers
  • LyondellBasell Industries: A Tale Of Improved Seasonal Demand and Customers’ Downtime!
  • Roper Technologies Inc.: Transition to Cloud and SaaS-based Offerings! – Major Drivers


KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of 2.36 billion, $60 million above the guided midpoint, down 5% QoQ and down 3% YoY.
  • Current quarter revenue guidance of $2.5 billion representing a ~6% QoQ increase and about the same YoY.
  • Share price close to record highs yet CY2024 outlook is tepid while the massive over reliance on China just keeps on going

Exxon Mobil Corporation: The Pioneer Expansion & The Expansion of ExxonMobil’s Guyana Operations! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ExxonMobil’s latest performance paints a promising picture, powered by strategic decisions, cost-saving measures, and a focus on long-term growth avenues.
  • In Q1 2024, ExxonMobil delivered $8.2 billion in earnings and $14.7 billion in cash flow, demonstrating ongoing efforts to enhance the company’s earnings power.
  • The company made big strides in cost savings, achieving $10.1 billion in Q1 compared to 2019, on track to reach their goal of $15 billion in savings by 2027.

Phillips 66: Potential For Expanded Flexibility With Trans Mountain Pipeline & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Phillips 66 reported its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2024, emphasizing progress in strategic areas, despite some obstacles encountered during the quarter.
  • Mark Lashier, President and CEO, noted strong crude utilization rates during the quarter.
  • However, maintenance work limited the company’s ability to produce higher-value products, impacting the results.

ADT Inc.: A Streamlined Business Model Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter 2024 results of ADT Inc. highlight the company’s positive growth and future investment opportunities.
  • The company continues to focus on its consumer-oriented core security and smart home business, serving a vast market.
  • Being an industry leader, ADT benefits from its trusted brand, national footprints, and the ability to tap stable and predictable cash flows to service and reduce its debt obligations.

Games Global IPO: Strong Profitability and Impressive Portfolios of IGaming Content

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Games Global, a promising iGaming content provider and B2B online gaming supplier, set terms for its U.S. IPO. The IPO price is expected to be between $16 and $19/share.
  • With the most recent F-1/A, the company may raise ~$114M at the high end of the range at $19/share. Zinnia Limited sells additional 8.5M shares in this offering.   
  • Games Global has created an impressive portfolios of iGaming content through a series of successful acquisitions, and I see upside potential vs. IPO price of $17.50 at the midpoint.

Bentley Systems: The Infrastructure Software Giant Poised for a Major Buyout? What Value Can It Extract? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on Bentley Systems, an infrastructure engineering software company.
  • The company is currently exploring a sale and it presents a mixed but compelling case for potential acquisition.
  • Several factors contribute to its attractiveness, balanced by challenges that might influence a buyer’s decision.

MHH: Mastech Sees Demand Improvement as Customers Loosen Their Purse Strings

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US. Both businesses have been affected by the rapid decline in the economy and IT hiring as customers pull back.
  • The company trades well below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation when it returns to growth aided by stock buybacks.
  • It also plans to grow through acquisition.

AppFolio Inc.: Is Its Revenue Growth Sustainable? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppFolio, a property management software provider, showcased strong financial results for Q1 2024.
  • The company reported a significant 38% year-over-year increase in revenue, which calculated to $187 million for the quarter.
  • This substantial growth was primarily due to increases in units and customers, along with upgrades and further adoption of value-added services.

LyondellBasell Industries: A Tale Of Improved Seasonal Demand and Customers’ Downtime!

By Baptista Research

  • The latest LyondellBasell earnings showcased several key trends and indicators that provide a comprehensive understanding of the company’s performance and future prospects.
  • On the positive side, LyondellBasell has made promising strides in improving safety metrics for its workers, leading to an impressive rate of just one injury per two million hours worked.
  • The operational excellence shown by this metric, as well as continued enhancements to LyondellBasell’s core business, has the potential to lead to consistent long-term growth.

Roper Technologies Inc.: Transition to Cloud and SaaS-based Offerings! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Roper Technologies had a robust start to the year, with double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, adjusted DEPS, and free cash flow noted for Q1, which has spurred an increased full-year outlook.
  • The Q1 report highlighted the completion of another milestone for the company – the acquisition of Procare Solutions, a provider of software and integrated payments for the early childhood education market.
  • The total revenue and organic revenue increased by 14% and 8% respectively while EBITDA saw a 16% growth, with EBITDA margin expanding by 60 basis points to 40.2%.

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