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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Telecom and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes


Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes

By Douglas Kim

  • SK Telecom experienced the biggest cyberattack in its history in April which is likely to result in a major shakeup of its management team. 
  • We estimate SK Telecom could lose 1 million+ mobile service customers. Given its ARPU of 29,355 won per month, this would represent lost annual revenue of nearly 352 billion won. 
  • This massive cyberattack could cost SK Telecom more than 1 trillion won in a combination of lost revenue and additional commission/advertising necessary to attract new customers. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: Frasers Centrepoint Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Stocks Most Net Bought by Institutions in April


Singapore Stocks Most Net Bought by Institutions in April

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions net sold S$73M in Singapore stocks, with STI Banks experiencing S$701M in net institutional outflow in April.
  • Singtel recorded the highest net institutional inflow, with the Telecommunications Sector booking S$522M net inflow in April.
  • REITs saw S$74M net institutional outflow, but Frasers Centrepoint Trust led net inflow relative to market cap.

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Daily Brief United States: Apple , Starz, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Procter & Gamble Co, Lions Gate Entertainment , Whirlpool Corp, Gilead Sciences, Comcast Corp Class A and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China
  • Starz RemainCo Deep Dive
  • If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.
  • Amazon 1Q’25 Update
  • Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?
  • [Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?
  • Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!
  • Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?


Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. 
  • Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. 
  • Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. 

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.

  • The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.

  • Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

  • The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

  • It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.

  • AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.


Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
  • Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
  • After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

By Nicolas Baratte

  • What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
  • At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
  • Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
  • The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
  • This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment

By Richard Howe

  • On a sum-of-the-parts basis, LION and STRZ are worth significantly more than is reflected in LGF.A’s stock price.

  • At the close today, investors could buy 1 share of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A) for $8.90. On May 6, that investor will receive 1.12 shares of LION and 1.12 shares of STRZ.

  • I estimate LION is worth $11 and STRZ is worth $1.71. As such, it looks like there is ~60% upside


Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

By Baptista Research

  • Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
  • Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
  • The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences delivered a mixed performance in their latest financial results, reflecting both strengths and challenges across their portfolio.
  • The company reported overall product sales of $6.6 billion for the first quarter, a 1% decline year-over-year, primarily attributable to a significant decrease in sales of Veklury, a COVID-19 treatment, which was down 45%.
  • The core business, however, excluding Veklury, demonstrated growth with a 4% increase, driven largely by their HIV segment and liver disease treatments.

Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings offered insights into both the opportunities and challenges the company faces in various business segments.
  • On the positive side, Comcast highlighted robust performance in several growth areas, particularly in residential broadband, wireless, and theme parks.
  • The strategic shift towards these growth segments is a central part of the company’s business model.

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Daily Brief India: JSW Steel Ltd, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank Ltd, Laurus Labs, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback
  • Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers
  • Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels
  • Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
  • The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
  • The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers

By Rahul Jain

  • Adani Enterprises’ consolidated EBITDA rose by 26% to Rs16,722 crore in FY25, supported by expansion across key infrastructure and energy businesses.
  • Focus areas include scaling airports, green hydrogen production, solar manufacturing, data centers, and stabilized annuity cash flows from roads.
  • Key risks are project execution delays, regulatory oversight, high leverage, ESG scrutiny etc.

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
  • Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
  • 200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Laurus Labs (LAURUS IN) achieved a 122% YoY increase in PAT for FY25, driven by strong CDMO execution and higher margins.
  • The company is accelerating its transformation from an ARV-heavy model to a diversified CDMO/CMO business, with growing client base and strong pipeline visibility.
  • Laurus’ focus on small molecule and bio-CDMO segments, supported by strategic investments in new capacities, positions the company for continued growth, with improved asset turnover and higher operating leverage.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
  • The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
  • US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Otsuka Holdings, Nidec Corp, Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd, Sosei Group, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well
  • Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War
  • Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Muted 1Q25 Result; 2025 Guidance Reaffirmed; Near-Term Pain to Continue
  • Sosei Group (4565 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
  • Substantial “pre AGM Filing of Annual Securities Reports” Will Be After 2027


StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 12% YoY growth in revenue in 1Q25, as pharmaceuticals sales grew backed by a 35% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥75.7B.
  • The company reiterated 2025 guidance. Higher costs to dent margins with subdued sales of Lonsurf, Jynarque.
  • Indication expansion of Rexulti and Araris acquisition augur well for the company from a mid to long term perspective.

Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War

By Scott Foster

  • Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
  • Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
  • The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Muted 1Q25 Result; 2025 Guidance Reaffirmed; Near-Term Pain to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) announced muted 1Q25 performance, with flat revenue and 50%+ drop in operating and net profits. Drug price revision and competition are dragging Japan revenue.
  • Kyowa Kirin guided for 2025 revenue and operating profit of ¥478B (-4% YoY) and ¥80B (-16% YoY), respectively. The company expects 5% YoY decline in 2025 net profit to ¥57B.
  • Since our last insight on Kyowa Kirin, shares lost ~15%. We opined “amid gloomy outlook, Kyowa Kirin shares will need time to recover.” Our take on the company remains same.

Sosei Group (4565 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 44.1% YoY to JPY6.6bn, driven by Quviviq® revenue and milestone payments in Q1 FY12/25.
  • R&D expenses rose 20.4% YoY to JPY3.8bn, influenced by increased R&D investment and a weaker yen.
  • Core operating loss was JPY625mn, improved from JPY931mn in Q1 FY12/24, reflecting reduced non-cash and one-time expenses.

Substantial “pre AGM Filing of Annual Securities Reports” Will Be After 2027

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even if annual securities reports are filed earlier, a few days before the AGM, there is not enough time for institutional investors to use them for proxy voting.
  • Many companies believe that they could control the AGM by two things: diversifying shareholder attention by holding the AGM on the same day and not providing sufficient information to shareholders.
  • In its next request, FSA plans to encourage companies to move AGM to later date by changing “record date.” However, it’ll take time to come to a compromise with companies.

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Daily Brief China: Baidu, Kayou and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?
  • Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs


Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu is intensifying its AI initiatives with the launch of ERNIE 4.5 Turbo and ERNIE X1 Turbo, aiming to solidify its position in China’s competitive AI landscape.
  • These models boast enhanced multimodal capabilities and are priced significantly lower than competitors, with ERNIE 4.5 Turbo costing just 1% of GPT-4.5’s price.
  • In a strategic shift, Baidu plans to open-source ERNIE 4.5 by June 30, 2025, and has made its ERNIE Bot free for individual users.

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
  • The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
  • Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSW Steel Ltd, Source Rock Royalties, S&P/ASX 200, Iron Ore, Vedanta Resources, Newmarket Corp, Canyon Resources, Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Vale and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback
  • Source Rock Royalties : Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals
  • ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • NewMarket Corporation: Investment in AMPAC Production Capacity As A Pivotal Growth Factor!
  • Canyon Resources — Another step closer to first production
  • Reliance Inc.: Diversified Market Exposure to Capitalize On Emerging Trends!
  • Vale: A valuation paradox
  • Vale S.A.: Nickel and Base Metals Optimization to Sustain Long-Term Profitability Across Its Nickel Operations!


JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
  • The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
  • The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Source Rock Royalties : Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

By Atrium Research

  • Source Rock is an oil and gas royalty company with interests in lands across Saskatchewan and Alberta.
  • SRR has grown average daily production at a 16% CAGR since 2021, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing at a 22% CAGR.
  • Source Rock offers a >9% dividend yield which has grown at 2.5% annually since initiating the dividend in 2014.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

  • Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
  • Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
  • Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
  • Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
  • Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
  • The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
  • US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.

NewMarket Corporation: Investment in AMPAC Production Capacity As A Pivotal Growth Factor!

By Baptista Research

  • NewMarket Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 results present a complex financial landscape characterized by both strengths and challenges.
  • The company reported a net income of $126 million, translating to $13.26 per share, a notable increase from $108 million, or $11.23 per share, in the same quarter the previous year.
  • This positive growth in net income suggests strong profitability management, despite facing a decline in sales figures in some segments.

Canyon Resources — Another step closer to first production

By Edison Investment Research

Canyon Resources has received an approval that grants it land access at the established port of Douala. With rail access already secured through the investment in Camrail, this is the final infrastructure agreement required for the development of the Minim Martap project. It also paves the way for the company’s majority shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), to exercise its 500m options that will bring in A$35m. Access to rail and port significantly de-risks the project, supporting Canyon’s target of first shipment in H126. We maintain our project level NPV at US$566m (A$889m).


Reliance Inc.: Diversified Market Exposure to Capitalize On Emerging Trends!

By Baptista Research

  • Reliance Inc.’s first-quarter performance in 2025 highlighted both robust financial metrics and some challenges emerging from the broader economic landscape.
  • The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.77, surpassing internal projections, signifying strength despite prevailing market uncertainty.
  • This outperformance was driven by a 12.8% increase in tons sold compared to the previous quarter, attributed both to organic growth and the incorporation of four acquisitions made in 2024.

Vale: A valuation paradox

By Rahul Jain

  • Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
  • While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
  • The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.

Vale S.A.: Nickel and Base Metals Optimization to Sustain Long-Term Profitability Across Its Nickel Operations!

By Baptista Research

  • Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic initiatives.
  • Starting with an increase in iron ore sales by 4% year-on-year to 66 million tons, the company effectively managed its integrated supply chain despite a 4% decrease in production caused by higher rainfall in critical mining regions.
  • Vale continues to focus on operational excellence, as evidenced by the S11D project achieving its highest production for the first quarter, driven by asset reliability improvements.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Enterprises, Southwest Airlines Co, Jacobs Solutions , Knight Transportation, Masco Corp, Alaska Air Group, Norfolk Southern, Otis Worldwide , Republic Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War
  • Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers
  • Southwest Airlines: Expansion into New Distribution Channels Like Expedia & Google Flights To Boost Customer Base & Revenue Over Time!
  • Jacobs Solutions Is Tanking On DOGE & Tariff Fears — Why The Market May Be Getting It Wrong!
  • Knight-Swift Transportation: Is Its Strategic Positioning & Brand Integration The Right Move to Strengthen Its Market Position?
  • How Masco Corporation is Quietly Building an E-Commerce Business That Could Redefine Its Future!
  • Alaska Air Group Eyes Massive Cost Synergies from Hawaiian Deal—Is a Profit Surge Coming?
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation Wins Big-Thanks to Bold Customer Service Reboot!
  • Will Otis Worldwide Corporation’s Modernization & Repair Boom Unlock Explosive Revenue Growth?
  • Republic Services: The 5 Factors That Could Derail Its Performance In 2025!


Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War

By Scott Foster

  • Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
  • Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
  • The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.

Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers

By Rahul Jain

  • Adani Enterprises’ consolidated EBITDA rose by 26% to Rs16,722 crore in FY25, supported by expansion across key infrastructure and energy businesses.
  • Focus areas include scaling airports, green hydrogen production, solar manufacturing, data centers, and stabilized annuity cash flows from roads.
  • Key risks are project execution delays, regulatory oversight, high leverage, ESG scrutiny etc.

Southwest Airlines: Expansion into New Distribution Channels Like Expedia & Google Flights To Boost Customer Base & Revenue Over Time!

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines demonstrated a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress in strategic initiatives and challenges faced due to the macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s revenue strategy transformation seems to be bearing fruit, as indicated by record operating revenues of $6.4 billion, driven by a 3.5% increase in revenue per available seat mile (RASM).
  • Key initiatives contributing to this include amendments to their agreement with Chase, enhancements to the Rapid Rewards program, and expanded distribution channels like Expedia.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Jacobs Solutions Is Tanking On DOGE & Tariff Fears — Why The Market May Be Getting It Wrong!

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solutions has been making headlines recently as its stock took a hit, down nearly 11% this year, far underperforming the broader industrial sector’s decline.
  • Two major factors have fueled investor concerns: the impact of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiatives and renewed trade war risks under President Donald Trump.
  • Yet, a deeper dive into the company’s developments suggests that the market may be overreacting.

Knight-Swift Transportation: Is Its Strategic Positioning & Brand Integration The Right Move to Strengthen Its Market Position?

By Baptista Research

  • Knight-Swift Transportation’s first-quarter 2025 results indicate a mixed performance amidst an uncertain market environment, highlighting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • On the positive side, the company experienced an increase in overall revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, by 1.2%, and a significant improvement in adjusted operating income by 68.2%.
  • This was partially due to cost management initiatives and improved productivity.

How Masco Corporation is Quietly Building an E-Commerce Business That Could Redefine Its Future!

By Baptista Research

  • Masco Corporation’s recent earnings for the first quarter of 2025 revealed several key aspects of its performance and future outlook, marked by both challenges and areas of strength.
  • On the positive side, the company continues to drive innovation across its strong portfolio of brands, such as Delta Faucet and Behr, contributing to its solid reputation in the repair and remodel industry.
  • New product launches and awards highlight the company’s commitment to maintaining its competitive edge.

Alaska Air Group Eyes Massive Cost Synergies from Hawaiian Deal—Is a Profit Surge Coming?

By Baptista Research

  • The Alaska Air Group reported a challenging first quarter of 2025, with a GAAP net loss of $166 million and an adjusted net loss of $95 million, excluding special items and fuel hedge adjustments.
  • This represents a difficult start to the year primarily due to a divergence in air travel demand from the robust levels seen in prior months.
  • However, the company is committed to its strategic initiative, Alaska Accelerate, which focuses on long-term value creation and profitability.

Norfolk Southern Corporation Wins Big-Thanks to Bold Customer Service Reboot!

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corporation’s latest earnings for Q1 2025 outlined key aspects of its operational and financial performance amidst challenging conditions, including adverse weather impacts.
  • The company’s approach was marked by resilience and focus on productivity improvements, despite external uncertainties such as economic conditions and potential tariff impacts.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Will Otis Worldwide Corporation’s Modernization & Repair Boom Unlock Explosive Revenue Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Otis Worldwide Corporation has reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a mixed performance across its segments.
  • These results reflect the ongoing challenges in the New Equipment segment, but also showcase the resilience of its Service business.
  • Positives from the results include the solid performance of Otis’ Service segment, which saw an organic sales growth of 4% and a maintenance portfolio that expanded by 4%.

Republic Services: The 5 Factors That Could Derail Its Performance In 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services, Inc.’s first-quarter 2025 results showcase several strengths and challenges, painting a comprehensive picture of the company’s current status and future prospects.
  • The company reported a solid revenue growth of 4% and a notable adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%, which translated into an expanded EBITDA margin of 140 basis points to 31.6%.
  • Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.58, and adjusted free cash flow was robust at $727 million.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Apple , Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Lions Gate Entertainment , Intel Corp, Baidu, SK Telecom, ActiveOps, Tyler Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China
  • If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.
  • Amazon 1Q’25 Update
  • Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
  • [Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment
  • Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?
  • Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?
  • Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/04/2025
  • Will Tyler Technologies’ Bold AI Investments Redefine the Future of Public Sector Innovation?


Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. 
  • Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. 
  • Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. 

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

  • The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

  • It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.

  • AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.


Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
  • Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
  • After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

By Nicolas Baratte

  • What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
  • At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
  • Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  

[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment

By Richard Howe

  • On a sum-of-the-parts basis, LION and STRZ are worth significantly more than is reflected in LGF.A’s stock price.

  • At the close today, investors could buy 1 share of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A) for $8.90. On May 6, that investor will receive 1.12 shares of LION and 1.12 shares of STRZ.

  • I estimate LION is worth $11 and STRZ is worth $1.71. As such, it looks like there is ~60% upside


Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?

By Baptista Research

  • Intel’s first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and deep-rooted structural challenges.
  • Under the newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took charge just five weeks ago, the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $12.7 billion—both surpassing Wall Street expectations.
  • Gross margins reached 39.2%, higher than the guided 36%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected sales of Xeon and Raptor Lake chips.

Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu is intensifying its AI initiatives with the launch of ERNIE 4.5 Turbo and ERNIE X1 Turbo, aiming to solidify its position in China’s competitive AI landscape.
  • These models boast enhanced multimodal capabilities and are priced significantly lower than competitors, with ERNIE 4.5 Turbo costing just 1% of GPT-4.5’s price.
  • In a strategic shift, Baidu plans to open-source ERNIE 4.5 by June 30, 2025, and has made its ERNIE Bot free for individual users.

Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes

By Douglas Kim

  • SK Telecom experienced the biggest cyberattack in its history in April which is likely to result in a major shakeup of its management team. 
  • We estimate SK Telecom could lose 1 million+ mobile service customers. Given its ARPU of 29,355 won per month, this would represent lost annual revenue of nearly 352 billion won. 
  • This massive cyberattack could cost SK Telecom more than 1 trillion won in a combination of lost revenue and additional commission/advertising necessary to attract new customers. 

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/04/2025

By Hybridan

  • The provider of Decision Intelligence software for service operations, provided an update on trading for the year ended 31 March 2025.
  • Group revenue is expected to have increased by 13% or 15% on a constant currency basis, to approximately £30.4m, reflecting upsell of the latest iterations of its Decision Intelligence software and the successful go live with several major new customers.
  • SaaS revenues increased by approximately 13%, or 14% on a constant currency basis, up from 8% growth in the prior year. 

Will Tyler Technologies’ Bold AI Investments Redefine the Future of Public Sector Innovation?

By Baptista Research

  • Tyler Technologies, a leader in providing integrated software solutions for the public sector, reported its first quarter 2025 financial results revealing both strengths and challenges.
  • The company achieved a 10.3% year over-year revenue growth to $565.2 million, driven by a robust increase in subscriptions revenue, which climbed by 19.7%.
  • Notably, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) revenues grew 21%, marking continuous growth in this area for 17 consecutive quarters.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Starz, Procter & Gamble Co, Whirlpool Corp, Comcast Corp Class A, Lifeway Foods, DoorDash , Kayou, Pepsico Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops
  • Starz RemainCo Deep Dive
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?
  • Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?
  • Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas
  • DoorDash Makes a Bold $3.6 Billion Move: Is Deliveroo the Missing Piece for Global Domination?
  • Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs
  • Meritage Homes: Partnerships & Realtor Engagement to Enhance Market Reach & Sales Effectiveness!
  • PepsiCo: Can Its New Innovation-Driven Playbook Rewrite the Rules of Snack & Beverage Success?


StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.

  • The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.

  • Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
  • The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
  • This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

By Baptista Research

  • Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
  • Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
  • The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings offered insights into both the opportunities and challenges the company faces in various business segments.
  • On the positive side, Comcast highlighted robust performance in several growth areas, particularly in residential broadband, wireless, and theme parks.
  • The strategic shift towards these growth segments is a central part of the company’s business model.

Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods is likely to be sold to Danone, with a potential 14%+ upside, following board changes.
  • Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating a strategic review, indicating potential for a higher acquisition premium.
  • Liquidia’s patent lawsuit win enables drug commercialization, expected to gain market share and significantly increase valuation.

DoorDash Makes a Bold $3.6 Billion Move: Is Deliveroo the Missing Piece for Global Domination?

By Baptista Research

  • DoorDash has been making significant headlines with its proposed $3.6 billion acquisition offer for UK-based Deliveroo, signaling its continued ambition to expand beyond the U.S. market.
  • The deal, offering Deliveroo shareholders £1.80 ($2.40) per share, would value Deliveroo at approximately GBP2.7 billion, or around $3.6 billion.
  • Deliveroo’s board has indicated that it would be “minded to recommend” the offer if a firm bid is made under those terms.

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
  • The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
  • Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.

Meritage Homes: Partnerships & Realtor Engagement to Enhance Market Reach & Sales Effectiveness!

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes showed a resilient performance in the first quarter of 2025, balancing the challenging macroeconomic landscape with strategic operational adjustments.
  • Despite encountering a slower-than-expected start to the year, the company managed to achieve its second-highest first-quarter orders and closings in its history, reflecting its adaptability and strategic pivot towards a 60-day closing-ready inventory.
  • The company sold nearly 3,900 homes in Q1, achieving a 22% home closing gross margin and $1.3 billion in home closing revenue.

PepsiCo: Can Its New Innovation-Driven Playbook Rewrite the Rules of Snack & Beverage Success?

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo’s recent earnings highlighted several critical elements investors should consider, providing an insightful overview of both the opportunities and challenges facing the company.
  • On the positive side, the company’s international operations are clearly a growth engine, with markets outside the U.S. continuing to show robust performance.
  • The international segment recorded substantial growth in the quarter despite macroeconomic uncertainties in some regions like China and Mexico.

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