Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

May 07

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 5th): Evergreen Marine and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 5th): Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 5th): Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine, Unimicron Tech, Largan Precision, Powerchip Semico, Taiwan Mobile.

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May 07

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (5 May 2023): China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEM Weekly (5 May 2023): China, South Korea, Indonesia Macro; SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics

GEM Weekly (5 May 2023): China, South Korea, Indonesia Macro; SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: China PMI data, Asia PMI data, South Korea trade and inflation data, Indonesia GDP, Philippines inflation.
Companies mentioned: SK Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

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May 07

Daily Brief ECM: Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
In Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.

ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Nexus Select Trust will open books for India’s first Retail REIT, just as the first major India IPO for the year, Mankind Pharma seeks to list.
There was only Ventia (VNT AU) placement during the week, along with Giant Biogene Holding (2367 HK) lockup expiry.

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May 07

Most Read: Douzone Bizon, Kunlun Tech, Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, Jindal Steel & Power, Toshiba Corp, Thai Life Insurance, Ventia, Ecopro BM Co Ltd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, BNC Korea and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, HSI, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, PCOMP, HDFC
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes
NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Double/Triple Whammy for Some Stocks
Toshiba (6502) – Thinking About the Arb
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes – One High Probability; One Has Possibilities
Ventia (VNT AU) – Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June
Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
BNC Korea (256840 KS): Margin Pressure; Base Business Faces Regulatory Risk; COVID Drug in Doldrum

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.
The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KS200, KQ150, HSI, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, PCOMP, HDFC

By Brian Freitas

Friday marked the end of the review cutoff for the MSCI, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext and a bunch of other indices for the upcoming rebalances in May and June.
There are no major index events coming up this week as a lot of markets are shut on different days.
There were big inflows to mainland China ETFs during the week, while there was a big redemption from the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US).

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

By Brian Freitas

The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ).

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Double/Triple Whammy for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

Halfway through the review period, we see 5 potential changes for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)/ Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the September rebalance.
All the potential adds are expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap at the AMFI June reclassification, while we expect two of the potential deletes to move the other way.
Of the potential deletes, one is a high probability deletion from the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR while there is another that is a lower probability deletion.

Toshiba (6502) – Thinking About the Arb

By Travis Lundy

Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We’ll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes – One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

By Brian Freitas

Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) could replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).
JMT Network Services (JMT TB) is a very close delete on market cap, while Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.

Ventia (VNT AU) – Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas

Ventia (VNT AU) completed an A$300m placement overnight with Apollo and CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) selling around 14% of the shares outstanding at a small discount to the close.
The placement will significantly increase Ventia (VNT AU)‘s float and make the stock a high probability inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
We now expect two changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in June and the impact on the stocks is over 5.5 days of ADV to trade.

Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM

By Douglas Kim

It was recently reported that Choi Mun-Ho (CEO of Ecopro BM) sold 2,000 shares of Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) at 254,000 won per share.
It was also recently announced that Eroom T&C, the family company of Lee Dong-Chae, the chairman of Ecopro Group, also sold shares of Ecopro BM.
Recent selling of Ecopro BM shares by CEO Choi Mun-Ho and Ecopro affiliate Eroom T&C are negative signs on the Ecopro BM. Lofty valuations are also negative on Ecopro BM.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

BNC Korea (256840 KS): Margin Pressure; Base Business Faces Regulatory Risk; COVID Drug in Doldrum

By Tina Banerjee

During 2022, BNC Korea (256840 KS) reported gross profit margin of 48.3%, lower than 51.9% reported in 2021, as increasing competition is leading to price erosion of botulinum toxin products.
In March 2023, prosecutors have indicted BNC Korea for allegedly selling botulinum toxin injections to exporters without the approval of the MFDS from December 2015 to December 2021.
With the pandemic on a downward trend for more than a year now, we are skeptical about BNC Korea’s in-licensed COVID-19 drug candidate for a milestone payment of $15M.

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May 07

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent
ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient
Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target
China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China’s Core Assets, Lifetech
Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Portfolio Expansion Ensures Continued Profitable Growth
Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent

By Shawn Yang

ACMR reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT and non-IFRS net profit (2.8%), 42% and 35% vs. our est., and in-line, and positive vs. negative, respectively.
We estimate ACMR’s China wafer clean/ECD share was 11%/45%~ in 1Q23, +4/28ppts YoY, while guidance implies 45%/50%~ in 4Q23, respectively;
We maintain BUY and US$ 30 TP, implying 2.0x FY24 EV/Sales

ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chipmos Technologies (8150 TT) reported results last week, beating expectations and showing an increase in capacity utilization QoQ.
The company reported notable strength in Display Driver related demand, and capacity utilization for the segment may have bottomed back in 3Q22.
Memory is expected to have a delayed recovery according to ChipMOS, potentially coming in 3Q23. Adjusted our model — We continue to believe ChipMOS is cheap through the cycle.

Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

By Xin Yu, CFA

MIR forecasts China’s industrial robot market growth to accelerate to ~12% y/y in 2023 and will sustain at double digit y/y for the next several years.
Management sees order growth back to normal in Mar and Apr.
Industrial robot sales volume is expected to increase to ~25K in 2023, growing by ~45% y/y.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China’s Core Assets, Lifetech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Many people have begun to pay attention to whether there would be a second wave of COVID-19 in China. We think it is necessary to share our views.
The overvaluation or undervaluation of China’s core assets cannot be explained solely by classic valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF, but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by the companies.
Lifetech’s future growth space depend more on the performance of pacemakers and IBS, but they are facing different challenges. Therefore, we recommend short-term trade rather than long term hold.

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Portfolio Expansion Ensures Continued Profitable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) recorded 19% YoY revenue growth in H1FY23, driven by the growth of network of prescriber, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions of Scenesse.
In March, Clinuvel announced the test launch of the first dermatocosmetic product Cyacêlle, a polychromatic screen, formulated to protect skin against ultraviolet A & B and high-energy visible lights.
Clinuvel has published encouraging initial readouts of the DNA repair programs. In March 2023, the company has initiated Prénumbra Instant trial in acute ischemic stroke patients.

Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

By William Keating

Q1’23 was Acer’s fifth consecutive quarter of sequentially declining revenues
Called Q1’23 the trough but no specific guidance on the current quarter
Chromebook sales surged 44.4% QoQ. What was the reason for this?

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May 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK

By Sanghyun Park

The Korean local sector ETF with the fastest growing AUM is TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, whose AUM has increased more than twice over the past two months.
HPSP (403870 KS) will replace Tokai Carbon Korea (064760 KS) by a comfortable margin in the upcoming review in October.
From a day trading perspective, this presents a significant Long-Short opportunity. Considering the relatively sizeable passive impact size, setting an entry point more aggressively may not be a bad idea.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

By David Blennerhassett

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like “the wrong price” over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.
Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), are big beneficiaries.
Historically, the “event” which helps Murakami-san get out – with respect to Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Arcland Service (3085 JP) – is not one which is suitable for “normal” investors.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for Penguin International (PBS SP) from its Chairman and Dymon Group.
Key updates took place for Liontown Resources (LTR AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Lian Beng (LBG SP), and Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP).

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May 07

Daily Brief Macro: Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues

Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues

By Jeroen Blokland

Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.
Stock market investors living in ‘central bank and earnings lalaland’ underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.
Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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May 07

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Liontown Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for Penguin International (PBS SP) from its Chairman and Dymon Group.
Key updates took place for Liontown Resources (LTR AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Lian Beng (LBG SP), and Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP).

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 07

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Estun Automation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto
Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

By David Blennerhassett

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like “the wrong price” over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.
Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), are big beneficiaries.
Historically, the “event” which helps Murakami-san get out – with respect to Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Arcland Service (3085 JP) – is not one which is suitable for “normal” investors.

Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

By Xin Yu, CFA

MIR forecasts China’s industrial robot market growth to accelerate to ~12% y/y in 2023 and will sustain at double digit y/y for the next several years.
Management sees order growth back to normal in Mar and Apr.
Industrial robot sales volume is expected to increase to ~25K in 2023, growing by ~45% y/y.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 07

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tata Technologies, Tokai Carbon Korea, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, ACM Research, Chipmos Technologies, Tencent, Acer Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent
ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient
ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia
Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
In Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK

By Sanghyun Park

The Korean local sector ETF with the fastest growing AUM is TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, whose AUM has increased more than twice over the past two months.
HPSP (403870 KS) will replace Tokai Carbon Korea (064760 KS) by a comfortable margin in the upcoming review in October.
From a day trading perspective, this presents a significant Long-Short opportunity. Considering the relatively sizeable passive impact size, setting an entry point more aggressively may not be a bad idea.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent

By Shawn Yang

ACMR reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT and non-IFRS net profit (2.8%), 42% and 35% vs. our est., and in-line, and positive vs. negative, respectively.
We estimate ACMR’s China wafer clean/ECD share was 11%/45%~ in 1Q23, +4/28ppts YoY, while guidance implies 45%/50%~ in 4Q23, respectively;
We maintain BUY and US$ 30 TP, implying 2.0x FY24 EV/Sales

ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chipmos Technologies (8150 TT) reported results last week, beating expectations and showing an increase in capacity utilization QoQ.
The company reported notable strength in Display Driver related demand, and capacity utilization for the segment may have bottomed back in 3Q22.
Memory is expected to have a delayed recovery according to ChipMOS, potentially coming in 3Q23. Adjusted our model — We continue to believe ChipMOS is cheap through the cycle.

ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Nexus Select Trust will open books for India’s first Retail REIT, just as the first major India IPO for the year, Mankind Pharma seeks to list.
There was only Ventia (VNT AU) placement during the week, along with Giant Biogene Holding (2367 HK) lockup expiry.