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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives


Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

By Tina Banerjee

  • Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is a CDMO focusing on specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredients and intermediates. The company targets to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO.
  • The IPO, which will open for subscription on October 25, consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The price range has been fixed at INR329–346/share.
  • Blue Jet enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market through established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers. The company is on a capacity expansion spree.

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Daily Brief United States: Iridium Communications, WD-40 Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • IRDM: Valuation Reset, Cash Flow Rising
  • WDFC: Price Increase Premium Going Away


IRDM: Valuation Reset, Cash Flow Rising

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IRDM used its third quarter results as means to update investors on where operating EBITDA would end up for 2023 and the continued progress with direct to device
  • IRDM reported quarterly results missing our estimates due to a larger than expected decline in equipment revenue. 
  • The Qualcomm (QCOM) partnership is poised to emerge as the most significant catalyst for 2024

WDFC: Price Increase Premium Going Away

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Previous price increases by WD-40 Company (WDFC) led to the Company reporting a year over year increase in quarterly revenue, but with those prices increases being lapped in fiscal 2024
  • WDFC was able to reduce its inventory level in the quarter, but unit volume growth remains elusive. Higher operating expenses are expected to prevent earnings growth in fiscal 2024
  • WDFC reported fiscal fourth quarter sales of $140.5 million compared to $141.7 million achieved in fiscal third quarter.

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Daily Brief China: Vinda International, WH Group, Giordano International, New World Development, Nameson Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood
  • WH Group (288 HK):  Potential US Listing Of Smithfield Foods Could Be A Catalyst
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International
  • NWD 17 HK: FY23 Results Update, to Reset and Transform, and a Beta Play if Rate Expectation Peaks
  • Weekly Wrap – 20 Oct 2023


Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27 April, Vinda (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership. See Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK).
  • That shook a variety of suitors out of the woodwork (so to speak) including (reportedly) Brazil’s Suzano, the world’s largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, and DCP Capital.
  • The latest (alleged) interested party is the Tanoto family, currently holding a 7.03% stake, having first cleared 5% on the 26 September. 

WH Group (288 HK):  Potential US Listing Of Smithfield Foods Could Be A Catalyst

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • According to public news yesterday, WH Group (288 HK) plans to list its US pork business Smithfield Foods, the largest US pork producer, back in the US again. 
  • WH Group currently trades at 5x 2024E PE, assuming earnings return to the 2022 level in 2024E.  Since 2016, the company has had an average PE of 11x. 
  • The stock is a buy with a fairly strong catalyst in the potential US listing of the Smithfield Foods business, while downside is limited. 

Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International

By Douglas Kim

  • Giordano, one of the most recognizable apparel business in Asia, has been improving its operations materially with solid growth in sales and profits. 
  • Giordano provides very high dividend yield and payout. The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.28 for Giordano in 2023, which would suggest a dividend yield of 12.8%. 
  • We like the company’s high dividend yield, loyal customer base, and attractive valuations. It is trading at EV/EBITDA of 3.6x and P/B of 1.5x. 

NWD 17 HK: FY23 Results Update, to Reset and Transform, and a Beta Play if Rate Expectation Peaks

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we summarized NWD’s FY2023 results.  We think the gearing and balance sheet, the biggest concern that market has, has been clearly addressed
  • NWD has announced disposal of its stake in NWS, and will have more corporate actions to come.  The dividend expectation is reset
  • We view most of the negatives are priced in at current valuation.  NWD is much better than a Chinese developer, and should not be trading at 0.19x PB

Weekly Wrap – 20 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Medco Energi
  2. NagaCorp Ltd
  3. China Vanke
  4. Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
  5. Tata Motors Ltd

and more…


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Daily Brief Industrials: NEL ASA, Recruit Holdings, Avianca Holdings Sa, Epwin Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others
  • Recruit: Share Price Continues to Fall with Labor Markets Further Slow Down
  • Avianca – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Epwin Group – Strategic progress in tough markets


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
  • This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.

Recruit: Share Price Continues to Fall with Labor Markets Further Slow Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit’s share price is down more than 10% over the last 30-days despite there being a significant improvement in job openings in the US for the month of August.
  • The web traffic on both Glassdoor and Indeed also have declined in September compared to August where there was a MoM improvement in August 2023.
  • Though Recruit has guided for a decline in earnings, we think there is further downside to the company’s guidance.

Avianca – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Avianca’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Environmental and Governance scores. However, the company’s Social pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Epwin Group – Strategic progress in tough markets

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin’s H123 results confirmed a solid performance that was characterised by weaker volumes offset by cost control, higher prices and some contribution from M&A in tough markets. Longer term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Management action contributed to overall margin expansion, a feature that we expect to continue in FY23 and FY24 as material cost pressures become less of a headwind. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. We have maintained our forecasts but highlight the low valuation and attractive 6.7% yield.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Liontown Resources, Golden Eagle Energy, Origin Energy, Vedanta Ltd, Whitehaven Coal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Liontown Resources Placement – While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price
  • Golden Eagle Energy: Share Sale Done. MTO Price Bumped
  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU): State of Play
  • Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting
  • Vedanta’s Sweet Semiconductor Saga: A Sour Tale of Deception and Governance
  • Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle


Liontown Resources Placement – While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price

By Clarence Chu

  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is looking to raise A$365m (US$230m) for capital expenditure and to plug its funding gap for the Kathleen Valley Lithium (KVL) project. 
  • Together, the combined A$1.14bn equity/debt raising comes after Albemarle abandoned its A$6.6bn (US$4.2bn) acquisition bid for Liontown Resources earlier in the week.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Golden Eagle Energy: Share Sale Done. MTO Price Bumped

By David Blennerhassett

  • This transaction just keeps on giving. First, you received an additional dividend. Now the Offer price has been increased. 
  • On the 26 July, Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) announced an intention to acquire a 58.65% stake in coal miner Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ) (GEE).
  • Geo shareholders approved the purchase on the October 13 and the acquisition was completed on the 18 October. This triggered an MTO, which has been revised upward to IDR 1,305.50.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): State of Play

By Brian Freitas

  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU) resumes trading today after announcing a raise of up to A$1.18bn to fully fund the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project to first production and beyond.
  • The equity component is up to A$421m and the placement price of A$1.8/share is a 35.5% discount to the last close.
  • The placement price is higher than the stock price prior to the Albemarle Corp (ALB US) offer and during a period when its peers have performed poorly.

Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 20th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU)
  • The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.
  • The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.

Vedanta’s Sweet Semiconductor Saga: A Sour Tale of Deception and Governance

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The investigative analysis highlights a deceptive and confusing saga involving the Vedanta Group’s semiconductor venture in India. 
  • The group skillfully blurred the lines between Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)  and Vedanta Resources (VED LN), creating an impression that the semiconductor business was under Vedanta Limited, despite previous clarifications. 
  • Eventually, regulatory authorities penalized Vedanta for disclosure lapses, exposing governance concerns and a lack of transparency in this complex corporate maneuver.

Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

By Sameer Taneja

  • We listened to the conference call held by Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) to update investors on its acquisition of BHP’s coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. 
  • Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x
  • The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Eugene Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Another Hidden Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Is Captured in Korea: SOL Semicon ETF December Rebal
  • TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.
  • TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside


Another Hidden Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Is Captured in Korea: SOL Semicon ETF December Rebal

By Sanghyun Park

  • For the impending December rebalancing, the effective date is set for December 18th, while the ETF rebalancing trading will take place on December 15th.
  • Jusung Engineering and Eugene Technology are likely to be added, while Lake Materials and SFA Semicon are expected to exit the index.
  • Aside from constituent changes, Hansol Chemical is anticipated to significantly benefit from the passive impact as the primary beneficiary of the ceiling reversion.

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.
  • Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. 
  • TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday — Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
  • TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
  • Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position — Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.

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Daily Brief Health Care: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, AFT Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • The Rift Between Managers and Shareholders of Standard Market-Listed Companies Is Likely to Deepen
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Strong Q3 Result; Clinical Trial Setback Is a Temporary Dampener
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – New data support FDA application for ceftobiprole
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals – FDA nod for opioid alternative, upside anticipated


The Rift Between Managers and Shareholders of Standard Market-Listed Companies Is Likely to Deepen

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many of the companies that didn’t meet the listing criteria for the prime market still failed to gain market recognition over an 18-month period and moved to the standard market.
  • It is believed that TSE expects more companies to gradually drop out of Prime Market by raising the hurdle for effort targets that aren’t explicitly stated in the listing criteria.
  • As quality differences gradually emerge between the Prime and Standard markets, the rift between management awareness and shareholders of Standard market-listed companies is likely to deepen in the future.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Strong Q3 Result; Clinical Trial Setback Is a Temporary Dampener

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported net operating cash inflow for 3Q23 of A$21.4M, a A$10.6M improvement on the prior quarter and fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow.
  • In 3Q23, revenue from U.S. sales of Illuccix improved 13% QoQ to A$130.6M. Telix is progressing new marketing authorizations for Illuccix in several jurisdictions, including the U.K., EU, and Brazil.
  • Telix announced preliminary results of its phase I ProstACT SELECT study. Although the study achieved primary endpoints, the findings noted grade 3 and 4 hematologic events.

Basilea Pharmaceutica – New data support FDA application for ceftobiprole

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea presented a combination of eight presentations and abstracts on its antibiotic ceftobiprole (at the Infectious Diseases Week 2023 conference in Boston), which support its ongoing regulatory application with the FDA. The new data provide additional evidence on the drug’s utility and highlight ceftobiprole’s antimicrobial activity against clinically relevant pathogens, including MRSA, and support the dosing regimens utilised in the three Phase III studies for the three indications currently undergoing priority review by the FDA. As a reminder, the FDA has set a PDUFA date of 3 April 2024, which suggests that Basilea could potentially receive a regulatory decision for its lead antibiotic asset in the US in early-Q224. The FDA’s decision would be a significant catalyst for Basilea, considering the high prevalence of MRSA in US. The new data provide incremental support to the FDA application and instil confidence in a favourable outcome, in our view.


AFT Pharmaceuticals – FDA nod for opioid alternative, upside anticipated

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals announced FDA approval for Maxigesic IV, an intravenous form of its flagship pain relief prescription medicine. The FDA approval of the post-operative pain alternative to opioids marks a material win for AFT, given the US is the largest analgesic market (estimated at nearly $7bn) and the current US regulatory hurdles in addressing pain in light of the opioid abuse epidemic. The launch at end FY24 or early FY25 is anticipated to trigger a US$6m milestone payment from Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the US licensee for Maxigesic IV. AFT’s 65% share of this milestone has the potential to provide upside to its NZ$22–24m FY24 operating profit guidance if Maxigesic IV is launched in FY24. We note that Maxigesic IV is already registered in 43 countries and is available in 21 countries (including key markets of Germany, France and Italy). The US approval is a key addition to the AFT portfolio, providing further confidence in the company’s ability to reach its previously stated near-term rolling 12-month stretch revenue target of NZ$200m, which we anticipate to be achieved on an annual basis by FY25.


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Daily Brief Industrials: NEL ASA, Recruit Holdings, Avianca Holdings Sa, Epwin Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others
  • Recruit: Share Price Continues to Fall with Labor Markets Further Slow Down
  • Avianca – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Epwin Group – Strategic progress in tough markets


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: Novartis-Sandoz, Dechra, CHR, and Others

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
  • This includes a couple of intra-review index changes that could be triggered by the Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) and Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR DC) takeover situations.

Recruit: Share Price Continues to Fall with Labor Markets Further Slow Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit’s share price is down more than 10% over the last 30-days despite there being a significant improvement in job openings in the US for the month of August.
  • The web traffic on both Glassdoor and Indeed also have declined in September compared to August where there was a MoM improvement in August 2023.
  • Though Recruit has guided for a decline in earnings, we think there is further downside to the company’s guidance.

Avianca – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Avianca’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Environmental and Governance scores. However, the company’s Social pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Epwin Group – Strategic progress in tough markets

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin’s H123 results confirmed a solid performance that was characterised by weaker volumes offset by cost control, higher prices and some contribution from M&A in tough markets. Longer term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Management action contributed to overall margin expansion, a feature that we expect to continue in FY23 and FY24 as material cost pressures become less of a headwind. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. We have maintained our forecasts but highlight the low valuation and attractive 6.7% yield.


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Daily Brief Financials: Bank Of China Ltd (H), China Overseas Property, Standard Life UK Smaller Co Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank of China – Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income
  • China Overseas Property (2669 HK):  Questionable Acquisition From Sister Company
  • abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust – Performance setback providing good entry point?


Bank of China – Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
  • Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern.
  • The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago – with much more geopolitical risk.

China Overseas Property (2669 HK):  Questionable Acquisition From Sister Company

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Overseas Property (2669 HK) announced an acquisition on October 11 of a technical consultancy business from China State Construction Development (830 HK), a sister company. 
  • The deal consideration will be not higher than HKD950m, which amounts to a PE ratio of 17.5x based on estimated 2023 earnings of the acquired business.
  • In the current extremely shaky market, this kind of deal is very damaging to the market confidence of the stock.  Further derating is likely. 

abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust – Performance setback providing good entry point?

By Edison Investment Research

abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust (AUSC) is managed by Abby Glennie and Amanda Yeaman. The strategy of using the proprietary Matrix screening tool to search for stocks that fulfil strict quality, growth and momentum criteria has proved very successful over the long term but has been challenged since the start of 2022, as macroeconomic factors rather than company fundamentals have driven stock markets. Despite their frustrations, the managers are sticking with their tried-and-tested strategy and are highly confident that the trust will resume its record of outperformance when there is a change in the investment backdrop. This may already be underway as UK inflation is moderating, interest rates may be close to peaking and, in recent months, AUSC’s NAV performance versus the reference index looks to have stabilised.


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Daily Brief Consumer: ZJLD Group , Kolmar Korea , Nameson Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ZJLD Lock-Up – KKR’s US$680m Stake to Be Unlocked, Although the PE Could Opt to Wait
  • A Merger Share Swap Between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo
  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi, Sands China


ZJLD Lock-Up – KKR’s US$680m Stake to Be Unlocked, Although the PE Could Opt to Wait

By Clarence Chu

  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK) raised US$676m in its Hong Kong IPO in April 2023. Its six-month lockup will expire on 26th Oct 2023.
  • ZJLD is a Chinese liquor company producing baijiu. As per F&S, the firm ranked third among all baijiu companies with three or more aroma types in terms of FY21 sales.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

A Merger Share Swap Between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo

By Douglas Kim

  • On 19 October, Kolmar Korea announced that it will conduct a merger share swap with Yonwoo early next year to make it into a 100% wholly owned subsidiary.
  • We believe the merger share swap agreement between Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo is likely to have positive impact on both Kolmar Korea and Yonwoo.
  • After this share swap is completed, Yonwoo will be delisted. This merger is aimed at improving the inefficient governance structure caused by duplicate listings and improve management efficiency.

Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi, Sands China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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