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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: Indonesia : Sri Mulyani’s Exit Compounds Fiscal Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesia : Sri Mulyani’s Exit Compounds Fiscal Risks
  • Broadly Slower Services PMIs
  • GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1
  • Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns
  • Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 22 September
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 September
  • Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 22 September
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 September

Indonesia : Sri Mulyani’s Exit Compounds Fiscal Risks

By Priyanka Kishore

  • The exit of Indonesia’s veteran Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, marks a turning point in the country’s fiscal regime.
  • With her out of the picture, it is only a matter of time before the government revises the 3% deficit ceiling higher to accommodate Prabowo’s large spending plans.
  • This is a slippery slope and an indiscriminate push for spending, without concomitant tax reforms, could put debt on an unsustainable path.

Broadly Slower Services PMIs

By Phil Rush

  • PMIs broadly disappointed and declined relative to August, but absolute levels mostly remain robust or at least expansionary. We are not concerned by these noisy moves.
  • Such broad slowing seems shocking relative to the past few months, but it is historically a regular occurrence. Five of the previous twelve were at least as broadly bad.
  • The labour market remains tight in the euro area, softened in the UK, and steady in the US. Slower activity does not mean disinflationary slack. We stay relatively hawkish.

GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
  • JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
  •  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early part of the week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.91/b (2017 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.71/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Benchmarks had opened the session lower, but geopolitical tensions continue to keep markets on edge amid ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while Russian military activity close to the Polish border has raised wider tensions.

Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were slightly lower on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.37/b (0850 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.10/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Markets have been unable to shake off fears of a looming supply glut, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) setting off alarm bells last month with its forecast of a 2.5 million bpd Q4 surplus rising to over 3 million bpd next year, with OPEC+ seemingly on course to add more 2.5 million bpd by the end of this year.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 22 September

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils margins mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output.
  • Incentive for refiners to maintain high output puts pressure on global demand to remain sufficiently firm to absorb steady-to-higher supply.
  • Pressure on demand to hold firm coincides with time of year when demand typically starts to ease.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 September

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand likely to stay more muted.
  • Seasonal slowdown in demand in Q4 2025 incentivizes blenders to cut current stock levels.
  • Unexpectedly quiet Atlantic hurricane-season so far this year incentivizes blenders to start working down inventories that were built up to cover against supply-disruptions.

Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause

By Heteronomics AI

  • Surprise rate cut to 1.75% reflects weak growth trumping temporary inflation concerns; policy likely on hold “for some time”.
  • Fiscal stimulus of SEK 80bn for 2026 supports the outlook but creates inflation uncertainty via supply-demand imbalance.
  • The projected terminal rate is now reached, with the next move potentially a rate hike before the end of 2026.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 22 September

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils prices hold in narrow range versus feedstock prices.
  • Steady Group II margins contrast with sharper fall in margins in H2 Sept 2024.
  • Steady Group II margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output levels.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 September

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could turn more cautious amid signs of healthy availability and unusual change in trade flows.
  • Limited build-up of surplus supplies so far in Q3 2025 had eased concern about price-volatility, supporting steadier demand.
  • Buyers could instead limit their procurement plans amid unusual surge in Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia in recent weeks.

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief China: Oneconnect Financial Technology, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings, Alibaba, Victory Giant Technology -A, China Resources Beer Holdings, China Satellite Communications, Everbright Securitie Co (A), SJM Holdings, Prosus NV and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
  • Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October
  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage
  • Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave
  • Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?
  • Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Primer: Prosus NV (PRX SJ) – Sep 2025

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
  • A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable. 
  • The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November. 

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

By Nicholas Tan

  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

By Arun George

  • Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October. 
  • The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided. 

Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Stat-arb models flag Alibaba (9988 HK) as overvalued versus the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.
  • Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.
  • Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.

Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.
  • CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it’s performance has drawn little market attention, yet.
  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)  trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.

Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • China Satellite Communications (China Satcom) is a core professional subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, holding a national basic telecommunications business license. It is the primary operator of satellite communications in China, with a fleet of geostationary satellites covering China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Pacific.
  • The company’s revenue streams are primarily derived from satellite resource leasing and value-added services, including broadcasting, telecom, corporate, and government applications. While revenue has seen a slight decline in recent years, the company maintains a strong market position within China.
  • The global satellite communication market is projected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed internet, particularly in remote areas, and the expansion of applications in the military, aviation, and maritime sectors. This presents both opportunities and challenges for China Satcom as the industry landscape evolves with the rise of LEO constellations and new technologies.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
  • The company’s financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China’s capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
  • Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.

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Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SJM Holdings
  • UST yields climbed 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, rising for the fourth straight day after the Fed’s rate cut last week. The UST curve bear flattened slightly, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 3 bps to 3.60%, while that on the 10Y UST increased 2 bps to 4.15%. Equities climbed for a third straight day.
  • The S&P 500 edged up 0.4% to a fresh record high (for the 28th time this year) of 6,694, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 22,789.

Primer: Prosus NV (PRX SJ) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Prosus is a global internet group with a vast portfolio of online companies, but its market value is predominantly influenced by its substantial stake in Chinese tech giant Tencent.
  • The company trades at a significant and persistent discount to its net asset value (NAV), a key challenge management is addressing through an open-ended share buyback program funded by the gradual sale of its Tencent shares.
  • A strategic pivot is underway, shifting from a passive investment holding company to an active operator aiming to drive its core e-commerce segments (Food Delivery, Classifieds, Fintech, and Edtech) to sustained profitability and unlock value independent of Tencent.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Tokyo Gas, Avangrid , Gd Power Development Co A, Power Assets Holdings, Kansai Electric Power, Gail India, China Three Gorges Renewables, China National Nuclear Power C, CGN Power, Consolidated Edison and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Tokyo Gas (9531 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Avangrid (AGR US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Gd Power Development Co A (600795 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Gail India (GAIL IN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China National Nuclear Power C (601985 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: CGN Power (1816 HK) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Consolidated Edison (ED US) – Sep 2025

Primer: Tokyo Gas (9531 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Tokyo Gas is Japan’s largest city gas provider, benefiting from a dominant position in the high-demand Tokyo metropolitan area. The company is navigating a strategic pivot towards decarbonization and overseas growth, outlined in its ‘Compass 2030’ vision, while facing pressures from energy market deregulation and commodity price volatility.
  • Financial performance has been volatile, with record profits in FY2023 driven by a lag in fuel cost pass-through, followed by a normalization of earnings in FY2024 and FY2025. Future growth is contingent on the successful execution of its energy transition strategy, including investments in renewables, hydrogen, and international assets, particularly in North America.
  • Shareholder returns are a key focus, with a stated policy of a ~40% total payout ratio. However, the company faces risks from fluctuating LNG prices, intensified competition, and execution challenges related to its large-scale investment plans. Activist investor interest highlights potential value unlocking from its significant real estate portfolio.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Avangrid (AGR US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Avangrid is a leading U.S. sustainable energy company with two primary businesses: regulated electric and natural gas networks in the Northeast, and a large, growing renewable energy generation portfolio across 24 states.
  • The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the U.S. energy transition, with significant investments in grid modernization and a large pipeline of onshore and offshore wind projects, including the nation’s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, Vineyard Wind 1.
  • Majority-owned by global energy leader Iberdrola, S.A., which has completed a full takeover to delist Avangrid, the company benefits from its parent’s scale, expertise, and financial backing, but faces risks related to project execution, regulatory challenges, and consistently negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures.

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Primer: Gd Power Development Co A (600795 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Strong Earnings Growth Driven by Favorable Coal Prices: The company has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround in profitability, with net income growing at a 3-year CAGR of 94.23%. This surge is largely attributable to moderating coal prices, which eases margin pressure on its significant thermal power asset base.
  • Strategic Pivot to Renewables: Gd Power is actively expanding its renewable energy portfolio, including hydro, wind, and solar, in alignment with China’s national goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. This transition is crucial for long-term sustainable growth and mitigating regulatory risks associated with carbon emissions.
  • Attractive Dividend Yield Supported by State Ownership: As a core subsidiary of the state-owned China Energy Investment Corporation, the company offers a robust and growing dividend, reflected in its 5/5 Smartkarma dividend score. The dividend yield has steadily increased, reaching 4.37% in the most recent fiscal year, providing an attractive income proposition for investors.

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Primer: Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Power Assets Holdings is a global energy investor with a diversified portfolio of regulated utility assets, primarily in electricity and gas transmission and distribution, providing stable and predictable income streams.
  • The company maintains a strong financial position with a low-risk profile, characterized by a robust balance sheet, low gearing, and a history of consistent dividend payments, making it an attractive investment for income-focused investors.
  • Future growth is expected to be driven by strategic investments in renewable energy and a global transition to greener energy, although the company faces challenges related to regulatory changes, currency fluctuations, and the ongoing transition from fossil fuels.

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Primer: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Profitability Surge Driven by Nuclear Restarts: Kansai Electric Power (KEPCO) has seen a dramatic recovery in profitability over the past two fiscal years, primarily due to the progressive restart of its nuclear power plants. This has significantly reduced its reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels, leading to substantial margin improvement and record net income.
  • Strategic Focus on Decarbonization and Growth: Management is pursuing a dual-pronged strategy of ensuring a stable energy supply through its nuclear assets while aggressively expanding its renewable energy portfolio. The company has laid out a “Zero Carbon Vision 2050″and plans significant investments in offshore wind and other renewables to drive future growth.
  • Persistent Corporate Governance and Regulatory Risks: Despite efforts to reform, KEPCO has a history of significant corporate governance and compliance issues, which remain a key concern for investors. The company operates in a highly regulated industry, making its earnings susceptible to changes in government energy policy, tariff structures, and stringent safety standards for its nuclear operations.

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Primer: Gail India (GAIL IN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Position with Integrated Model: GAIL holds a commanding position in India’s natural gas sector, operating across the entire value chain from transmission and trading to petrochemicals and city gas distribution. Its extensive pipeline network of over 16,000 km provides a significant competitive advantage and a stable revenue stream through transmission tariffs.
  • Favorable Industry Growth Outlook: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the Indian government’s policy to increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix to 15% by 2030 from around 7% currently. This policy is expected to drive substantial growth in natural gas consumption, particularly in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) and industrial sectors.
  • Significant Capex Plans to Drive Future Growth: GAIL is undertaking substantial capital expenditure, with plans to invest around ₹30,000 crore over the next three years in pipelines, petrochemicals, and CGD projects. A major ₹60,000 crore ethane cracker project in Madhya Pradesh is also planned, which will significantly boost its petrochemical capacity and future earnings potential.

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Primer: China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Renewable Energy Player with Strong Growth Trajectory: China Three Gorges Renewables (CTGR) is a leading renewable energy producer in China, backed by its state-owned parent, China Three Gorges Corporation. The company has demonstrated a robust revenue CAGR of 24.51% over the last three years, driven by significant capacity expansion in wind and solar power.
  • Strategic Focus on High-Growth Offshore Wind: CTGR has established a formidable position in the offshore wind sector, which is a key growth area in China’s renewable energy landscape. This specialization provides a competitive advantage and potential for higher margins compared to onshore projects.
  • Navigating a Transitioning Regulatory Environment: The company’s profitability is subject to China’s evolving energy policies, including the shift from feed-in tariffs to grid-parity pricing. While this presents margin pressure, CTGR’s scale, technological expertise, and strong government relationships position it to navigate these changes effectively.

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Primer: China National Nuclear Power C (601985 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Position with Strong Government Backing: As a subsidiary of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), CNNP is a leader in China’s nuclear power sector, which is a strategic priority for the nation’s energy security and decarbonization goals. This backing provides significant competitive advantages, including favorable policies, access to funding, and a clear growth pipeline.
  • Clear Growth Trajectory Driven by National Energy Policy: China has the world’s most ambitious nuclear power expansion plan, aiming to reach 70 GWe of installed capacity by 2025 and 110 GWe by 2030. CNNP is a primary vehicle for this growth, with a substantial number of reactors under construction and in the approval pipeline, ensuring a long-term revenue and earnings growth runway.
  • High Capital Expenditure and Negative Free Cash Flow: The company’s aggressive expansion strategy requires massive capital investment, leading to consistently negative free cash flow. While this is necessary for future growth, it represents a significant cash burn and reliance on financing until new reactors become operational and start generating returns.

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Primer: CGN Power (1816 HK) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • As China’s largest nuclear power operator, CGN Power is central to the nation’s ambitious decarbonization and energy security goals, providing a clear, long-term growth trajectory.
  • The company benefits from a stable business model with predictable cash flows, underpinned by regulated tariffs and a strong operational track record, making it an attractive investment for income-focused portfolios.
  • While the growth outlook is robust, potential risks include shifts in government tariff policies, public perception of nuclear safety, and competition from the rapidly expanding renewables sector.

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Primer: Consolidated Edison (ED US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Regulated Utility with a Focus on Clean Energy: Consolidated Edison is a pure-play regulated utility primarily serving New York City and its surrounding areas. The company is heavily investing in infrastructure to support New York State’s clean energy goals, with a planned capital investment of approximately $38 billion between 2025 and 2029.
  • Stable Financial Performance and Dividend Aristocrat Status: The company has a long history of stable earnings and has increased its dividend for 51 consecutive years, making it a Dividend Aristocrat and a Dividend King. Its regulated business model provides revenue predictability and supports consistent dividend growth.
  • Navigating Regulatory and Market Challenges: While benefiting from a supportive regulatory environment for its clean energy transition, Con Edison faces risks related to regulatory decisions on rate cases, which directly impact its return on equity. The company’s stock performance has at times lagged broader market indices, and it must manage the operational and financial risks associated with its large-scale infrastructure projects.

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Sep 24
0

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Chery Automobile, Alibaba, Gemvax & Kael, Zijin Gold, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
  • Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
  • Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
  • Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking
  • OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
  • Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

By Brian Freitas

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
  • Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

By Brian Freitas

  • Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
  • The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
  • The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps’ average multiple.
  • We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto’s higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

By Sanghyun Park

  • MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
  • Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
  • No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

By Rahul Jain

  • Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
  • Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
  • Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
  • A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable. 
  • The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November. 

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

By Nicholas Tan

  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

By Arun George

  • Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October. 
  • The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided. 

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kajima Corp, SBI Holdings, Toshiba Corp, Technopro Holdings, ASIRO , Rakuten, Oracle Corp Japan, Ibiden Co Ltd, Kansai Electric Power, Daiwa House Industry and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: ASIRO (7378 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Rakuten (4755 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) – Sep 2025

Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Market Position with Diversified Operations: Kajima is one of Japan’s ‘Big Five’ general contractors, possessing a dominant position in the domestic construction market. The company is well-diversified across civil engineering, building construction, and a growing real estate development business, which provides a buffer against the cyclicality of the construction sector.
  • Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Japanese construction market is supported by robust public and private investment. Key drivers include large-scale urban redevelopment projects, government spending on national resilience and infrastructure renewal, and growing demand for advanced facilities like data centers and logistics centers.
  • Shareholder-Focused Capital Allocation: Kajima has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a 3-year dividend CAGR of over 21%. This is supported by a strategy to enhance profitability by focusing on high-margin projects and improving investment efficiency in its real estate development arm.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • SBI Holdings is a major Japanese financial services conglomerate with a diversified business portfolio spanning Financial Services, Asset Management, Private Equity Investment, Crypto-assets, and Next Generation Business. The company is aggressively pursuing a growth strategy centered on digital transformation, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new technological frontiers like Web3, AI, and semiconductors.
  • The company has demonstrated strong top-line growth, with revenue surpassing ¥1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2023. Profitability is also on an upward trend, driven by its core financial services segment, particularly SBI Shinsei Bank, and a significant turnaround in its private equity investment business.
  • SBI’s forward-looking strategy involves significant investments in high-growth areas, both domestically and internationally, with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The company aims to generate 20-30% of its consolidated profit from overseas businesses in the medium term.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization Marks New Chapter: After 74 years as a publicly traded entity, Toshiba was delisted in December 2023 following a successful $13.5 billion buyout by a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP). This move ends a tumultuous period marked by accounting scandals, corporate governance crises, and battles with activist investors, allowing management to focus on a long-term revitalization strategy away from public market pressures.
  • Strategic Refocus on Core Operations: Having divested numerous non-core businesses such as laptops, medical equipment, and home appliances, the new strategy centers on higher-margin and critical technology sectors. Key focus areas include energy systems, infrastructure, power semiconductors, and data-driven digital solutions, aiming to leverage the company’s technological strengths in areas critical to national security and global trends like decarbonization and digitalization.
  • Path to Recovery Fraught with Challenges: Despite the potential benefits of privatization, Toshiba faces significant hurdles. The company is still recovering from a legacy of financial mismanagement and reputational damage. It operates in highly competitive global markets and must execute a complex turnaround plan to streamline operations, manage its debt, and regain its position as an innovative leader.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Technopro Holdings is the subject of a tender offer from private equity firm Blackstone at ¥4,870/share, which represents a significant premium but is considered potentially undervalued by some market observers.
  • As a leading technology-focused staffing firm in Japan, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s structural shortage of skilled engineers and increasing demand for digital transformation.
  • Significant uncertainty surrounds the success of the Blackstone acquisition due to a high tender threshold of 66.67% and a large passive shareholder base, creating a key risk for investors at the current price.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: ASIRO (7378 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • ASIRO is a high-growth player in the burgeoning Japanese legal tech market, primarily operating online media platforms that connect consumers with legal professionals. The company is capitalizing on the digitization of Japan’s legal industry.
  • The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a 3-year CAGR of 45.66%. However, this top-line growth has been accompanied by significant earnings volatility, including a net loss in the fiscal year ending January 2023, and a sharp decline in net income and EPS over the past 3 and 5 years.
  • While the company’s growth and momentum scores are high, its value and profitability metrics warrant caution. The business model is sensitive to changes in online marketing costs and competition, which represents a key risk for investors.

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Primer: Rakuten (4755 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Rakuten is at a strategic inflection point, with its established and profitable FinTech and E-commerce segments providing a stable foundation while the high-investment Mobile segment continues its protracted journey toward profitability. The core “Rakuten Ecosystem”strategy, which fosters user loyalty and cross-selling, remains a key competitive advantage.
  • The Mobile segment’s persistent losses are the primary drag on group profitability and the main source of investor concern. However, the segment has shown signs of improvement, reaching monthly EBITDA profitability for the first time in December 2024 and targeting full-year EBITDA profitability in 2025.
  • Future growth hinges on three key factors: (1) achieving sustained profitability in the Mobile segment to alleviate financial pressure on the group, (2) continued strong growth and margin expansion in the high-margin FinTech division, and (3) maintaining market leadership in the domestic e-commerce space against formidable competitors like Amazon.

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Primer: Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Position with Strong Cloud Growth: Oracle Corp Japan is a leading player in the Japanese enterprise software market, particularly in database management systems where it holds a significant market share. The company is successfully leveraging its large installed base to drive strong growth in its cloud services, including Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Fusion Cloud applications, which are key drivers of future revenue.
  • Robust Financials and Shareholder Returns: The company exhibits a strong financial profile with consistent revenue growth, high profitability margins, and a debt-free balance sheet. This financial strength allows for stable dividend payments and positions the company to invest in future growth opportunities, such as AI and multi-cloud strategies.
  • Intensifying Competition and Slower Overall Growth: While cloud revenue is growing, the overall revenue growth rate lags the broader software industry. The company faces intense competition from hyperscale cloud providers like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud in the Japanese market. A deceleration in the cloud services growth rate has been noted as a potential risk to its competitive momentum.

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Primer: Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Ibiden stands as a dominant force in the high-performance IC substrate market, strategically positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in AI and data centers through its key relationship with Nvidia.
  • Recent financial performance has been robust, with Q1 FY25 results showing significant year-over-year growth, prompting management to upgrade the earnings outlook for FY25-27.
  • Despite strong growth prospects and a leading market position, the company trades at a valuation discount to high-growth AI peers, presenting a compelling Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) opportunity, albeit with risks related to customer concentration and competitive pressures.

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Primer: Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Profitability Surge Driven by Nuclear Restarts: Kansai Electric Power (KEPCO) has seen a dramatic recovery in profitability over the past two fiscal years, primarily due to the progressive restart of its nuclear power plants. This has significantly reduced its reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels, leading to substantial margin improvement and record net income.
  • Strategic Focus on Decarbonization and Growth: Management is pursuing a dual-pronged strategy of ensuring a stable energy supply through its nuclear assets while aggressively expanding its renewable energy portfolio. The company has laid out a “Zero Carbon Vision 2050″and plans significant investments in offshore wind and other renewables to drive future growth.
  • Persistent Corporate Governance and Regulatory Risks: Despite efforts to reform, KEPCO has a history of significant corporate governance and compliance issues, which remain a key concern for investors. The company operates in a highly regulated industry, making its earnings susceptible to changes in government energy policy, tariff structures, and stringent safety standards for its nuclear operations.

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Primer: Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Diversified Business Model Mitigates Cyclicality: Daiwa House Industry‘s strength lies in its multifaceted business portfolio, spanning single-family houses, rental housing, condominiums, commercial and business facilities, and environmental energy. This diversification helps to cushion the company against downturns in any single segment of the construction and real estate market.
  • Strong Foothold in a Mature Market with Pockets of Growth: While Japan’s overall population is declining, Daiwa House is well-positioned to capitalize on key growth areas. These include the rising demand for logistics facilities driven by e-commerce, the need for modern healthcare and nursing facilities for an aging population, and urban redevelopment projects. The company is also expanding its overseas operations to tap into global growth.
  • Commitment to Sustainability and Innovation: Daiwa House has placed a strong emphasis on environmental initiatives, such as developing zero-energy consumption housing and investing in renewable energy. This focus on sustainability not only addresses societal needs but also enhances the company’s brand image and long-term competitiveness. Their use of precast concrete technology also allows for reduced construction times and costs.

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BHP Group Ltd, Merdeka Gold Resources, Exide Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crude Oil, Canyon Resources, Yankuang Energy Group, Alamos Gold Inc, China Energy Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO
  • Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025
  • The Beat Ideas: Exide Industries- Powering India’s Energy Transition From Lead-Acid to Li-Ion
  • GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1
  • Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns
  • Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears
  • Canyon Resources Placement: Backstopped by Largest Shareholder; Strategic Assets
  • Primer: Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Alamos Gold Inc (AGI CN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China Energy Engineering (601868 CH) – Sep 2025

BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
  • The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP’s Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
  • BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

By Rahul Jain

  • Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
  • Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
  • Valuation & Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.

The Beat Ideas: Exide Industries- Powering India’s Energy Transition From Lead-Acid to Li-Ion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Exide Industries is doubling down on lithium-ion cell and pack manufacturing with huge committed capex, while sustaining its dominant lead-acid franchise.
  • The company’s strong cash flows from lead acid batteries are funding high-risk, high-reward bets on EV and renewable storage, positioning it as India’s only dual-chemistry energy storage leader.
  • Execution risk in lithium-ion scale-up is high, but Exide’s brand equity provide a buffer. The story now hinges on whether early-mover advantage in Li-ion can translate into sustainable returns.

GST Cut Lifts Outlook As Indian Tire Majors Navigate Weak Q1

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
  • JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
  •  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

Oil futures: Crude higher as Russia disruptions offset glut concerns

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early part of the week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.91/b (2017 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.71/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Benchmarks had opened the session lower, but geopolitical tensions continue to keep markets on edge amid ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while Russian military activity close to the Polish border has raised wider tensions.

Oil futures: Crude drifts lower on supply glut fears

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were slightly lower on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early week.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.37/b (0850 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.10/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
  • Markets have been unable to shake off fears of a looming supply glut, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) setting off alarm bells last month with its forecast of a 2.5 million bpd Q4 surplus rising to over 3 million bpd next year, with OPEC+ seemingly on course to add more 2.5 million bpd by the end of this year.

Canyon Resources Placement: Backstopped by Largest Shareholder; Strategic Assets

By Nicholas Tan

  • Canyon Resources (CAY AU) is looking to raise around US$132m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures, as well as increase its stake in the railway line serving its mine in Central Africa’s Cameroon.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Primer: Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Yankuang Energy Group is a major Chinese state-owned enterprise, primarily engaged in coal mining, which accounts for the majority of its revenue. The company is actively diversifying into coal chemicals, new materials, and renewable energy to mitigate risks associated with the global energy transition and fluctuating commodity prices.
  • The company’s financial performance is heavily influenced by coal price volatility. While it has demonstrated periods of strong profitability and shareholder returns, recent performance has been impacted by declining coal prices, leading to a significant drop in net income.
  • Strategically, Yankuang is focused on expanding its production capacity in both coal and chemicals, while also setting ambitious targets for renewable energy. However, this expansion is largely debt-fueled, raising concerns about its financial leverage and balance sheet fragility amidst a challenging market outlook for coal.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Alamos Gold Inc (AGI CN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Strong, Fully-Funded Growth Profile in Tier-1 Jurisdictions: Alamos Gold is executing a significant production growth plan, expecting to increase output by approximately 24% from 2024 to 2027, with a long-term target of around 900,000 ounces annually. This growth is driven by low-cost, high-return organic projects in Canada, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the newly approved Lynn Lake project, which are fully funded by internal cash flow.
  • Declining Cost Trajectory and Margin Expansion: The company is positioned for a significant reduction in all-in sustaining costs (AISC), projected to fall from ~$1,275/oz in 2024 to as low as $1,125-$1,225/oz by 2027. This cost improvement, driven by the completion of major capital projects and economies of scale, should lead to substantial margin expansion and free cash flow generation, particularly in a strong gold price environment.
  • Solid Financial Position and Experienced Management: Alamos maintains a robust balance sheet with a strong liquidity position and a conservative leverage profile, providing the flexibility to fund its growth pipeline. The company is led by a seasoned management team, including founder and CEO John A. McCluskey, who has a proven track record of value creation and operational execution since 2003.

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Primer: China Energy Engineering (601868 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Dominant Market Position with Strong Growth: As a leading state-owned enterprise, China Energy Engineering Corp (CEEC) is a key player in China’s energy and infrastructure construction sectors. The company has demonstrated a robust growth track record with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 10.68% and a net income CAGR of 8.88%, driven by strong domestic investment in energy infrastructure and its active participation in the global Belt and Road Initiative.
  • Significant Cash Flow Concerns: Despite impressive top-line growth, the company exhibits a critical weakness in cash flow generation. Free cash flow has been severely negative over the past three years and the last several quarters, indicating that high capital expenditures and working capital requirements are consuming more cash than the operations generate. This raises concerns about the quality of earnings and long-term financial sustainability.
  • Strategic Focus on New Energy: CEEC is strategically aligning with China’s national goals for carbon neutrality by increasing its focus on renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and hydropower. This transition presents a significant long-term growth opportunity, but also requires substantial upfront investment, contributing to the current negative free cash flow.

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kcc Corp, Jain Resource Recycling, Atlanta Electricals, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Joby Aviation , Technopro Holdings, Kajima Corp, Toshiba Corp, Synergy Grid & Development Philippines, Carlisle Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?
  • Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop
  • Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 23 September, Hankyung Business Daily reported that Kcc Corp (002380 KS) plans to issue about 430 billion won worth of exchangeable bonds (EB) based on its own treasury shares.
  • We believe the overall impact on this EB issue on KCC is likely to be more negative as compared to the EB issue it conducted in July 2025. 
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 508,467 won, which is 22% higher than current price.

Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Atlanta is the third largest manufcaturer of transformers in India. With recent capex coming online, it boasts of capacity and product offering in line with the market leaders.
  • The company has a strong order book of 1,600cr and given the fairly short execution timeline is positioned to deliver 25-30% growth in FY26.
  • We believe IPO is being fairly valued at 20-24 times FY26 EBITDA, implying a 30-35% discount vs market leader Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) 

Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Rolls-Royce is undergoing a significant transformation under new leadership, resulting in a sharp recovery in profitability and cash flow. This turnaround is driven by a rebound in Civil Aerospace aftermarket services and strong performance in its Defence and Power Systems divisions.
  • The company operates in markets with high barriers to entry, particularly in the wide-body aircraft engine sector, affording it a strong competitive position. Long-term service agreements provide a resilient and recurring revenue stream tied to engine flying hours.
  • While the outlook is positive, supported by a strong order book and strategic cost-cutting initiatives, the company’s valuation appears elevated relative to historical levels. Key risks include execution of the ongoing transformation, cyclicality of the commercial aviation market, and persistent supply chain pressures.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue company at the forefront of the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market, aiming to revolutionize urban transportation with an on-demand aerial ridesharing service.
  • The company has made significant progress towards Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its aircraft, placing it ahead of many competitors. Strategic partnerships with major players like Toyota and Delta Air Lines, along with a strong financial position, are key enablers of its growth strategy.
  • However, the company faces substantial risks, including a capital-intensive business model with a long road to profitability, intense competition from both startups and established aerospace giants, and significant regulatory and technological hurdles to overcome before commercial operations can commence.

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Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Technopro Holdings is the subject of a tender offer from private equity firm Blackstone at ¥4,870/share, which represents a significant premium but is considered potentially undervalued by some market observers.
  • As a leading technology-focused staffing firm in Japan, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s structural shortage of skilled engineers and increasing demand for digital transformation.
  • Significant uncertainty surrounds the success of the Blackstone acquisition due to a high tender threshold of 66.67% and a large passive shareholder base, creating a key risk for investors at the current price.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Market Position with Diversified Operations: Kajima is one of Japan’s ‘Big Five’ general contractors, possessing a dominant position in the domestic construction market. The company is well-diversified across civil engineering, building construction, and a growing real estate development business, which provides a buffer against the cyclicality of the construction sector.
  • Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Japanese construction market is supported by robust public and private investment. Key drivers include large-scale urban redevelopment projects, government spending on national resilience and infrastructure renewal, and growing demand for advanced facilities like data centers and logistics centers.
  • Shareholder-Focused Capital Allocation: Kajima has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a 3-year dividend CAGR of over 21%. This is supported by a strategy to enhance profitability by focusing on high-margin projects and improving investment efficiency in its real estate development arm.

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Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization Marks New Chapter: After 74 years as a publicly traded entity, Toshiba was delisted in December 2023 following a successful $13.5 billion buyout by a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP). This move ends a tumultuous period marked by accounting scandals, corporate governance crises, and battles with activist investors, allowing management to focus on a long-term revitalization strategy away from public market pressures.
  • Strategic Refocus on Core Operations: Having divested numerous non-core businesses such as laptops, medical equipment, and home appliances, the new strategy centers on higher-margin and critical technology sectors. Key focus areas include energy systems, infrastructure, power semiconductors, and data-driven digital solutions, aiming to leverage the company’s technological strengths in areas critical to national security and global trends like decarbonization and digitalization.
  • Path to Recovery Fraught with Challenges: Despite the potential benefits of privatization, Toshiba faces significant hurdles. The company is still recovering from a legacy of financial mismanagement and reputational damage. It operates in highly competitive global markets and must execute a complex turnaround plan to streamline operations, manage its debt, and regain its position as an innovative leader.

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Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Monopoly Position with Guaranteed Returns: SGP’s sole operating asset, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), holds an exclusive 25-year concession to operate the entire Philippine power transmission network, creating a natural monopoly with significant barriers to entry. This structure provides a stable and predictable revenue stream based on a regulated asset base.
  • Growth Driven by National Economic Expansion: The company is poised to benefit from the Philippines’ robust economic growth, which directly translates to increasing electricity demand. This necessitates significant capital expenditures for grid expansion and modernization, particularly to integrate renewable energy sources, thereby growing SGP’s asset base and future earnings potential.
  • Significant Regulatory and Political Risks: As a regulated entity, SGP’s financial performance is highly susceptible to the decisions of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), particularly concerning tariff setting and allowable returns. The strategic importance of the national grid also exposes the company to political scrutiny and potential government intervention, which can create uncertainty.

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Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Carlisle is a market-leading manufacturer of highly engineered building envelope products, with a dominant position in the North American commercial roofing market.
  • The company is strategically focused on higher-growth, higher-margin businesses, having recently divested non-core assets. This aligns with their ‘Vision 2030’ plan, which targets significant earnings per share growth.
  • While facing near-term headwinds from a softer construction market and destocking, Carlisle’s long-term outlook is supported by favorable trends in energy efficiency, re-roofing, and a strong track record of operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System (COS).

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kcc Corp, Jain Resource Recycling, Atlanta Electricals, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Joby Aviation , Technopro Holdings, Kajima Corp, Toshiba Corp, Synergy Grid & Development Philippines, Carlisle Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?
  • Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop
  • Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

KCC Corp – To Issue 430 Billion Won in EB Using Its Treasury Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 23 September, Hankyung Business Daily reported that Kcc Corp (002380 KS) plans to issue about 430 billion won worth of exchangeable bonds (EB) based on its own treasury shares.
  • We believe the overall impact on this EB issue on KCC is likely to be more negative as compared to the EB issue it conducted in July 2025. 
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 508,467 won, which is 22% higher than current price.

Jain Resource Recycling IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
  • The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
  • In this note, we take a quick look at the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Atlanta Electricals: IPO Priced at 30% Discount to Peers. Can Bid for Listing Pop

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Atlanta is the third largest manufcaturer of transformers in India. With recent capex coming online, it boasts of capacity and product offering in line with the market leaders.
  • The company has a strong order book of 1,600cr and given the fairly short execution timeline is positioned to deliver 25-30% growth in FY26.
  • We believe IPO is being fairly valued at 20-24 times FY26 EBITDA, implying a 30-35% discount vs market leader Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) 

Primer: Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Rolls-Royce is undergoing a significant transformation under new leadership, resulting in a sharp recovery in profitability and cash flow. This turnaround is driven by a rebound in Civil Aerospace aftermarket services and strong performance in its Defence and Power Systems divisions.
  • The company operates in markets with high barriers to entry, particularly in the wide-body aircraft engine sector, affording it a strong competitive position. Long-term service agreements provide a resilient and recurring revenue stream tied to engine flying hours.
  • While the outlook is positive, supported by a strong order book and strategic cost-cutting initiatives, the company’s valuation appears elevated relative to historical levels. Key risks include execution of the ongoing transformation, cyclicality of the commercial aviation market, and persistent supply chain pressures.

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Primer: Joby Aviation (JOBY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue company at the forefront of the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market, aiming to revolutionize urban transportation with an on-demand aerial ridesharing service.
  • The company has made significant progress towards Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its aircraft, placing it ahead of many competitors. Strategic partnerships with major players like Toyota and Delta Air Lines, along with a strong financial position, are key enablers of its growth strategy.
  • However, the company faces substantial risks, including a capital-intensive business model with a long road to profitability, intense competition from both startups and established aerospace giants, and significant regulatory and technological hurdles to overcome before commercial operations can commence.

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Primer: Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Technopro Holdings is the subject of a tender offer from private equity firm Blackstone at ¥4,870/share, which represents a significant premium but is considered potentially undervalued by some market observers.
  • As a leading technology-focused staffing firm in Japan, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s structural shortage of skilled engineers and increasing demand for digital transformation.
  • Significant uncertainty surrounds the success of the Blackstone acquisition due to a high tender threshold of 66.67% and a large passive shareholder base, creating a key risk for investors at the current price.

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Primer: Kajima Corp (1812 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Market Position with Diversified Operations: Kajima is one of Japan’s ‘Big Five’ general contractors, possessing a dominant position in the domestic construction market. The company is well-diversified across civil engineering, building construction, and a growing real estate development business, which provides a buffer against the cyclicality of the construction sector.
  • Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Japanese construction market is supported by robust public and private investment. Key drivers include large-scale urban redevelopment projects, government spending on national resilience and infrastructure renewal, and growing demand for advanced facilities like data centers and logistics centers.
  • Shareholder-Focused Capital Allocation: Kajima has demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a 3-year dividend CAGR of over 21%. This is supported by a strategy to enhance profitability by focusing on high-margin projects and improving investment efficiency in its real estate development arm.

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Primer: Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization Marks New Chapter: After 74 years as a publicly traded entity, Toshiba was delisted in December 2023 following a successful $13.5 billion buyout by a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP). This move ends a tumultuous period marked by accounting scandals, corporate governance crises, and battles with activist investors, allowing management to focus on a long-term revitalization strategy away from public market pressures.
  • Strategic Refocus on Core Operations: Having divested numerous non-core businesses such as laptops, medical equipment, and home appliances, the new strategy centers on higher-margin and critical technology sectors. Key focus areas include energy systems, infrastructure, power semiconductors, and data-driven digital solutions, aiming to leverage the company’s technological strengths in areas critical to national security and global trends like decarbonization and digitalization.
  • Path to Recovery Fraught with Challenges: Despite the potential benefits of privatization, Toshiba faces significant hurdles. The company is still recovering from a legacy of financial mismanagement and reputational damage. It operates in highly competitive global markets and must execute a complex turnaround plan to streamline operations, manage its debt, and regain its position as an innovative leader.

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Primer: Synergy Grid & Development Philippines (SGP PM) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Monopoly Position with Guaranteed Returns: SGP’s sole operating asset, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), holds an exclusive 25-year concession to operate the entire Philippine power transmission network, creating a natural monopoly with significant barriers to entry. This structure provides a stable and predictable revenue stream based on a regulated asset base.
  • Growth Driven by National Economic Expansion: The company is poised to benefit from the Philippines’ robust economic growth, which directly translates to increasing electricity demand. This necessitates significant capital expenditures for grid expansion and modernization, particularly to integrate renewable energy sources, thereby growing SGP’s asset base and future earnings potential.
  • Significant Regulatory and Political Risks: As a regulated entity, SGP’s financial performance is highly susceptible to the decisions of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), particularly concerning tariff setting and allowable returns. The strategic importance of the national grid also exposes the company to political scrutiny and potential government intervention, which can create uncertainty.

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Primer: Carlisle Cos (CSL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Carlisle is a market-leading manufacturer of highly engineered building envelope products, with a dominant position in the North American commercial roofing market.
  • The company is strategically focused on higher-growth, higher-margin businesses, having recently divested non-core assets. This aligns with their ‘Vision 2030’ plan, which targets significant earnings per share growth.
  • While facing near-term headwinds from a softer construction market and destocking, Carlisle’s long-term outlook is supported by favorable trends in energy efficiency, re-roofing, and a strong track record of operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System (COS).

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gemvax & Kael, Oneconnect Financial Technology, AEM, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings, Victory Giant Technology -A, Xilinx Inc, China Satellite Communications, Advanced Micro Devices, Daqo New Energy Corp Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
  • OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
  • AEM Holdings: Nvidia’s Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?
  • Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October
  • Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave
  • Primer: Xilinx Inc (XLNX US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025
  • The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely
  • Primer: Daqo New Energy Corp Adr (DQ US) – Sep 2025

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

By Sanghyun Park

  • MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
  • Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
  • No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
  • A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable. 
  • The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November. 

AEM Holdings: Nvidia’s Investment in Intel to Drive AEM Re-Rating?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Last week NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) announced a 5 billion USD investment into Intel Corp (INTC US). 
  • If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.
  • AEM (AEM SP) has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

By Nicholas Tan

  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

By Arun George

  • Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October. 
  • The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided. 

Victory Giant A/H Listing – Riding the AI Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Primer: Xilinx Inc (XLNX US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Historical Context is Crucial: This report analyzes Xilinx Inc. as a standalone entity prior to its acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which was announced in October 2020 and completed in February 2022. Xilinx ceased trading on the NASDAQ post-acquisition. Therefore, this primer serves as a historical analysis of a foundational semiconductor company.
  • Dominant FPGA Market Leader: Xilinx was the inventor of the Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and the market leader, consistently holding over 50% market share. Its primary competitor was Altera, which was acquired by Intel. The company’s core strength was its highly flexible and adaptive processing platforms that enabled rapid innovation across diverse, high-growth markets like data centers, 5G communications, automotive, and aerospace & defense.
  • Strategic Pivot to Platform Company: Under the leadership of CEO Victor Peng, Xilinx successfully transitioned from a chip supplier to a platform-centric company, focusing on high-growth areas like data center acceleration and AI inference. This strategy involved significant R&D investment and acquisitions to bolster its software and IP portfolio, leading to strong revenue growth in its targeted markets prior to the acquisition.

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Primer: China Satellite Communications (601698 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • China Satellite Communications (China Satcom) is a core professional subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, holding a national basic telecommunications business license. It is the primary operator of satellite communications in China, with a fleet of geostationary satellites covering China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Pacific.
  • The company’s revenue streams are primarily derived from satellite resource leasing and value-added services, including broadcasting, telecom, corporate, and government applications. While revenue has seen a slight decline in recent years, the company maintains a strong market position within China.
  • The global satellite communication market is projected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed internet, particularly in remote areas, and the expansion of applications in the military, aviation, and maritime sectors. This presents both opportunities and challenges for China Satcom as the industry landscape evolves with the rise of LEO constellations and new technologies.

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The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.
  • With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.
  • If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.

Primer: Daqo New Energy Corp Adr (DQ US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Polysilicon Producer Facing Severe Cyclical Downturn: Daqo New Energy is a top-5 global producer of high-purity polysilicon, a critical material for the solar PV industry. The company is currently navigating a severe industry downturn characterized by massive overcapacity and plummeting polysilicon prices, which has led to significant revenue declines and negative profitability.
  • Low-Cost Position and Strong Balance Sheet Provide Resilience: Despite the challenging market, Daqo maintains a key competitive advantage through its position as one of the world’s lowest-cost producers. This, combined with a strong balance sheet and substantial net cash position, provides a buffer to withstand the current price trough better than higher-cost competitors.
  • Valuation Appears Depressed, but High Uncertainty Persists: The company’s stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value and its Shanghai-listed subsidiary, reflecting deep market pessimism. While this presents a potential value opportunity, the timing of a polysilicon price recovery is highly uncertain, and risks related to oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies remain significant.

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Sep 24
0

Daily Brief Financials: Mediobanca SpA, S&P/ASX 200, Ally Financial, FnGuide Inc, Everbright Securitie Co (A), Regency Centers, SBI Holdings, Lincoln National, Equinix Inc, Blue Owl Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?
  • S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting
  • Primer: Ally Financial (ALLY US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Regency Centers (REG US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025
  • Lincoln Financial Group’s Big Bet on Annuities – Will It Pay Off?
  • Primer: Equinix Inc (EQIX US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: Blue Owl Capital (OWL US) – Sep 2025

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.
  • MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).
  • Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

By Nico Rosti

  • As previously forecasted, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) ended its rally at the end of August/early September.
  • The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.
  • In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.

Primer: Ally Financial (ALLY US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Leading Digital Bank and Auto Financier: Ally Financial holds a strong position as the largest all-digital bank in the U.S. and a dominant player in the automotive finance market. This dual focus provides diversified revenue streams and a solid customer base.
  • Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: The company has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through consistent dividend payments. Recent financial performance shows a significant rebound in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS beating analyst expectations, driven by an expanded net interest margin and disciplined cost control.
  • Navigating a Challenging Environment: Ally faces headwinds from intense competition in the financial services industry, potential economic downturns impacting loan performance, and a dynamic regulatory landscape. The company’s reliance on the auto lending market also exposes it to risks associated with this specific sector.

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Primer: FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • FnGuide holds a dominant position in South Korea’s rapidly expanding sector-themed ETF index market, a key growth driver for the company.
  • Despite consistent revenue growth, the company experienced a significant 47.6% drop in net income in FY 2024, raising concerns about profitability and operational efficiency.
  • A shareholder dispute in 2024 and subsequent management changes have introduced corporate governance risks and uncertainty regarding the company’s future strategic direction.

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Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
  • The company’s financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China’s capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
  • Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.

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Primer: Regency Centers (REG US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Regency Centers stands as a preeminent owner and operator of high-quality, grocery-anchored shopping centers located in affluent and densely populated U.S. markets.
  • The company’s strategic focus on necessity-based retail provides a defensive moat against e-commerce and economic downturns, resulting in high occupancy rates and stable cash flows.
  • Future growth is expected to be driven by a combination of strong leasing activity, a robust development and redevelopment pipeline, and disciplined capital allocation, though risks from tenant bankruptcies and rising interest rates persist.

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Primer: SBI Holdings (8473 JP) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • SBI Holdings is a major Japanese financial services conglomerate with a diversified business portfolio spanning Financial Services, Asset Management, Private Equity Investment, Crypto-assets, and Next Generation Business. The company is aggressively pursuing a growth strategy centered on digital transformation, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new technological frontiers like Web3, AI, and semiconductors.
  • The company has demonstrated strong top-line growth, with revenue surpassing ¥1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2023. Profitability is also on an upward trend, driven by its core financial services segment, particularly SBI Shinsei Bank, and a significant turnaround in its private equity investment business.
  • SBI’s forward-looking strategy involves significant investments in high-growth areas, both domestically and internationally, with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The company aims to generate 20-30% of its consolidated profit from overseas businesses in the medium term.

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Lincoln Financial Group’s Big Bet on Annuities – Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Lincoln Financial Group’s second-quarter performance showed a year-over-year improvement in adjusted operating income, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of such growth.
  • The company reported robust results with a 32% increase in adjusted operating income, demonstrating momentum in its ongoing strategy to optimize operations and enhance profitability.
  • This positive trend reflects efforts to focus on risk-adjusted return on capital and reducing result volatility, although the economic backdrop remains subject to change, potentially influencing future results.

Primer: Equinix Inc (EQIX US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Equinix is the world’s largest data center and interconnection provider, structured as a REIT, and is a critical component of the global digital economy’s backbone.
  • The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on major secular growth trends, including artificial intelligence (AI), hybrid multi-cloud adoption, and enterprise digital transformation, which are driving robust demand for its services.
  • While facing risks from high capital intensity, competition, and legal scrutiny, Equinix’s extensive global platform, dense interconnection ecosystem, and strong recurring revenue model provide a durable competitive advantage.

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Primer: Blue Owl Capital (OWL US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Blue Owl is strategically positioned in the fastest-growing segments of alternative asset management, particularly direct lending and GP solutions, capitalizing on the secular shift of capital from public to private markets.
  • The company’s business model, anchored by a high concentration of permanent capital, provides a stable and predictable revenue stream through management fees, reducing volatility and supporting consistent growth in assets under management (AUM) and fee-related earnings (FRE).
  • Aggressive strategic acquisitions are expanding Blue Owl’s capabilities into high-demand sectors like digital infrastructure and real estate credit, which are expected to drive significant synergies and future growth, although they also introduce integration risks.

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