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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Rise on AI Momentum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Rise on AI Momentum
  • @Sama Says There’s An AI Bubble. What’s Going On?
  • Gold Takes Off, Rates Bite, Miners Rip
  • 230: AI At The Frontier: A Stock Picker’s Take on AI Investing
  • Thematic Report: GST Rate Cuts; A Consumption-Led Boost for India Inc
  • Monday Delight: 08/09/25
  • Podcast EP306: The Challenges of Advanced AI Data Center Design with Josue Navarro
  • Exencial Industry Tidings 08/09/2025
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 8 September (Vopak | PostNL | TomTom | Dutch politics | Corporate agenda)

Ohayo Japan | Markets Rise on AI Momentum

By Mark Chadwick

  • Technology stocks led the advance, driven by Broadcom’s 3% gain and Nvidia’s nearly 1% rise, which reversed some recent steep losses
  • US to release critical inflation data this week, with the producer price index due Wednesday and consumer price index Thursday,
  • IHI is withdrawing from its US biomass power generation business; shifts management resources toward more profitable businesses like aircraft engines

@Sama Says There’s An AI Bubble. What’s Going On?

By William Keating

  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money
  • However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future
  • Meta’s no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir’s valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real & rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously

Gold Takes Off, Rates Bite, Miners Rip

By Money of Mine

  • Gold stocks have seen significant upside movement amid rising long-term rates and inflation concerns in global markets.
  • There is growing interest in gold as a real asset amidst uncertainties in inflation expectations and potential rate cuts by central banks.
  • Australian gold companies like Ramelius, Northern Star, and Genesis have shown varying degrees of success in line with the changing perception of consensus gold forecasts.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

230: AI At The Frontier: A Stock Picker’s Take on AI Investing

By The Bid

  • Tony and Michael, portfolio managers at BlackRock, reflect on their recent tech tour in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, highlighting the rapid progress and efficiencies AI is creating.
  • AI has evolved from chatbots to super intelligence, with companies now exploring AI applications in various sectors of the market.
  • Investment opportunities in AI are primarily focused on infrastructure, but opportunities are expanding across different layers of the technology stack.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thematic Report: GST Rate Cuts; A Consumption-Led Boost for India Inc

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GST cuts across autos, FMCG, durables, and farm inputs are expected to lift India Inc revenue growth by 25–50 bps in FY26.
  • The timing coincides with weak rural demand, festival season consumption, and global macro headwinds, giving policy-driven tailwinds to discretionary and farm-linked sectors.
  • While sectoral impact will diverge, the cuts tilt the earnings balance modestly upward, with consumption-heavy corporates best positioned to benefit.

Monday Delight: 08/09/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Podcast EP306: The Challenges of Advanced AI Data Center Design with Josue Navarro

By SemiWiki.com

  • AI is transforming data centers and increasing energy consumption
  • Next generation AI data centers rely on high performance GPUs and specialized accelerators, requiring advanced power distribution and cooling solutions to maintain reliability and sustainability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Exencial Industry Tidings 08/09/2025

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • Engineering exports to US face USD 8 bln hit from tariffs
  • SOPA urges govt to impose 10% duty on edible oil imports
  • Indian pulses trade demand 50% duty be imposed on yellow peas imports

What’s News in Amsterdam – 8 September (Vopak | PostNL | TomTom | Dutch politics | Corporate agenda)

By The IDEA!

  • Vopak | Vopak Terquimsa divests Barcelona terminal Vopak Terquimsa, (a joint venture in which Vopak has a 50% share) has divested its Barcelona terminal to Tradebe Port Services.
  • The Barcelona terminal is mainly used for the storage of petroleum products, chemicals and vegetable oils.
  • The Barcelona terminal is for Vopak less strategically attractive, Vopak remains a 50% shareholder in Vopak Terquimsa Tarragona, this terminal is located within the industrial cluster of Tarragona, Spain.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief ECM: Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
  • Hesai Secondary Offering – Stock Hasn’t Corrected Yet
  • Urban Company IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Not a Whole Lot of Upside
  • Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed
  • Netskope IPO (NTSK.US): Very Attractive Valuation For a Company That Grows 30%+ Per Year
  • Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Growth & Projections Grab Street’s Attention
  • Mabgeek (麦济生物) Pre-IPO: Incremental Innovation in a Crowded Space
  • Netskope, Inc. (NTSK): Cybersecurity Firm Sets Terms for IPO Seeking $800m Raise; $6.5b Valuation
  • StubHub Holdings (STUB): Ticket Marketplace Company Sets Terms, Seeks up to $9.2b Valuation
  • Chery Auto Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Some More Data, Some More Issues

Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.  
  • Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
  • The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.

Hesai Secondary Offering – Stock Hasn’t Corrected Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) plans to raise around US$450m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
  • We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. 
  • In this note, we talk about the deal structure and updates since then.

Urban Company IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Not a Whole Lot of Upside

By Sumeet Singh

  • Urban Company (UCL IN) is looking to raise about US$220m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

By IPO Boutique

  • Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
  • The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna’s metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. 
  • The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.

Netskope IPO (NTSK.US): Very Attractive Valuation For a Company That Grows 30%+ Per Year

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Netskope Inc., a cloud-native cybersecurity company that redefines security and network for the era of cloud and AI, has announced the initial price range for its US IPO.
  • The offering is expected to be between $15.00 and $17.00 per share, implying a market cap of ~$6.2B at midpoint, ~22% discount to last round valuation of $7.5B.
  • IPO valuation at midpoint is very attractive valuation for a company that grows 30%+ per year. I have a positive view of upcoming Netskope IPO and see substantial “IPO pop”.

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Growth & Projections Grab Street’s Attention

By IPO Boutique

  • FT Intermediate (FIGR US) is offering 26.3 million shares at $18-$20 and will debut on Thursday, September 11th.
  • A key driver is Figure Connect, its blockchain-based marketplace launched in mid-2024, which has already transacted $1.3 billion in HELOC volume with 27 marketplace participants onboarded.
  • The company can significantly reduce middle men and has been gaining market share but still have just a small piece of this large pie.

Mabgeek (麦济生物) Pre-IPO: Incremental Innovation in a Crowded Space

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Mabgeek, a China-based clinical-stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s core product, MG-K10.
  • We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

Netskope, Inc. (NTSK): Cybersecurity Firm Sets Terms for IPO Seeking $800m Raise; $6.5b Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • Netskope will offer 47.8 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a market cap of $5.7b-$6.5b.
  • Their revenue was $251.3 million and $328.5 million and their net loss was $206.7 million and $169.5 million in the first half of fiscal 2024 and 2025, respectively. 
  • The company’s financials are strong with 31% revenue growth in the 1H 2025 and is cash-flow positive in a sector that IPO investors typically embrace — cybersecurity. 

StubHub Holdings (STUB): Ticket Marketplace Company Sets Terms, Seeks up to $9.2b Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • StubHub will offer 34.042 million shares at a $22-25 range and will debut on Wednesday, 9/17.
  • The company is currently not profitable and revenues had only grown 3% in the 1H of 2025 and has a large amount of indebtedness.
  • This deal has been highly-telegraphed with the original filing happening in March but the IPO was put on pause after market volatility in April.

Chery Auto Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Some More Data, Some More Issues

By Sumeet Singh

  • Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from its most recent filings.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • UST yields plunged on Friday, as the market priced in additional Fed easing following the weak August nonfarm payrolls data.
  • As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in a full 25-bp rate cut in September, and 69 bps of cuts in the remainder of 2025 (vs. 61 bps as of Thursday).
  • The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 8 bps to 3.51%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 9 bps at 4.07%. 

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Contract Slightly, Beautiful Skew Better
  • Ecopro Co: Pursuing a PRS Deal Worth About 700 Billion Won Using Its Stake in Ecopro BM
  • Nidec: Navigating Regulatory Challenges and Unlocking Value
  • Timing and Hedge Play on Korea’s Top Policy Swing—CGT Applicable Threshold
  • Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
  • The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
  • Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH’s peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Contract Slightly, Beautiful Skew Better

By Travis Lundy

  • “Beautiful Skew” came back slightly. Not huge, but OK. On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 0.8%.
  • Last week’s short reco on Remegen (9995 HK) gained 8.3% on the week in Hs and the H underperformed the A by 7% Friday to Friday, 4.5% if VWAPed Monday.
  • AH premia are likely still in a widening phase but weakness in speculative A-shares may dampen overall moves even if pairs are volatile. New reco this week.

Ecopro Co: Pursuing a PRS Deal Worth About 700 Billion Won Using Its Stake in Ecopro BM

By Douglas Kim

  • Several local news outlets reported that Ecopro Co is pursuing a plan to raise about 700 billion won through a PRS agreement using its stake in Ecopro BM as collateral.
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 11.4 trillion won. A PRS worth 700 billion won (assuming no change in share price), represents 6.1% of Ecopro BM’s market cap. 
  • Although Ecopro has not officially announced this PRS deal, we believe that this is a high probability (70%-80%+) that this deal will get done in the next several weeks.

Nidec: Navigating Regulatory Challenges and Unlocking Value

By Jay Cameron

  • Urgent Regulatory Deadline: Nidec faces a critical deadline of September 26, 2025. Meeting this deadline is crucial to avoid regulatory consequences, including potential “Security on Alert” designation or stock suspension.
  • Underlying Strength Amidst Issues: Despite recent compliance issues that have impacted its stock, Nidec maintains a strong position as a global leader in electric motors with diversified revenue, projected growth.
  • Potential for Rebound: The current low valuation, may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors if the company successfully addresses its governance issues and restores investor confidence.

Timing and Hedge Play on Korea’s Top Policy Swing—CGT Applicable Threshold

By Sanghyun Park

  • Deputy PM Koo guided the threshold decision by month-end, likely before Chuseok; historically, Seoul drops major policy prints on Thu/Fri, pointing to 25–26 as the high-prob window.
  • Local intel points to ₩5bn; strong public pushback makes it politically locked. Traders are positioning ahead of the 25–26 window, balancing index longs with hedges.
  • FSS break-up creates regulatory uncertainty, pressuring banks and brokers. Traders appear to be pairing index longs with financials shorts, riding policy momentum while hedging sector risk.

Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The deal has moved into its closing stretch, with process milestones largely secured. From here, this feels more like a basis clean-up than a binary event, with execution discipline paramount.
  • Value now leans on PHP shares rather than regulatory drama. Hedging the stock leg frames the opportunity; avoiding complexity and timing slippage likely matters more than squeezing every basis point.
  • Squeeze-Out is advancing; settlement expected in October as delisting completes. I recommend treating CMA headlines as background noise and keeping sizing disciplined.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pop Mart International – Valuation Using Peter Lynch’s PEGY Ratio and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Pop Mart International – Valuation Using Peter Lynch’s PEGY Ratio
  • China TCM (570.HK) – Performance Is Expected to Rebound
  • Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Pricey Patriotism or Desperation?
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Technical Overhang Masks Strong Fundamentals – Gold Bulls Stay Put
  • ASICS (7936) | Growth Trajectory Intact, Optionality Expanding
  • Mercado Libre: E-commerce Empire – [Business Breakdowns, EP.227]
  • Amber Enterprises: Implication of Rs 1,200 Crore Infusion in Iljin Electronics from PE
  • Urban Company IPO – Beauty-Led Platform With Structural Growth Tailwinds

Pop Mart International – Valuation Using Peter Lynch’s PEGY Ratio

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s valuation using Peter Lynch’s PEGY ratio.
  • If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
  • WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART’S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.

China TCM (570.HK) – Performance Is Expected to Rebound

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM is still in the adjustment period due to CTCMG VBP and goodwill impairment loss. However, the new management is pushing for internal reforms, which is a good phenomenon.
  • Rebound will come after China TCM fully digest the impact of VBP. Looking forward, annual profit of RMB1bn is still expected. Reasonable valuation is RMB10-15bn, which is just conservative estimate.
  • As CNPGC still commits to resolving the horizontal competition issue, investors have reignited interest in betting on privatization of China TCM and potential merger with Taiji, which is a catalyst.

Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth

By Rahul Jain

  • Q1 FY25 revenue fell 20% YoY, but enterprise SSD strength kept EBITDA positive and margins above trough levels.
  • Management guides for a strong sequential rebound in Q2–Q3 on AI-driven enterprise demand and normalized PC/smartphone inventories.
  • Kioxia trades at ~3–4× EV/EBITDA vs peers on 9–12×, despite higher NAND margins, with the gap driven by cyclicality, tech lag, and shareholder overhang.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Pricey Patriotism or Desperation?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) pre-announces GST benefits, signaling consumer-first patriotism but raising questions on intent.
  • Dealer checks reveal heavy discounting despite festive demand hopes coupled with weak dispatches.
  • Possible margin risks emerge as MM tries to flush out inventory ahead of GST 2.0 and festive season.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
  • Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
  • Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Technical Overhang Masks Strong Fundamentals – Gold Bulls Stay Put

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  is down nearly 20% since June’s lock-up expiry, despite strong 1H2025 results and subsequent analyst earnings upgrades.
  • The stock trades at 22x FY26E, the low end of its YTD P/E range, with a PEG below 0.8x.
  • China’s retail gold demand in 2Q2025 has shifted toward investment products – a trend that could support Laopu’s mostly investment-driven sales.

ASICS (7936) | Growth Trajectory Intact, Optionality Expanding

By Mark Chadwick

  • Performance Running momentum intact: ~10% global market share, outgrowing Nike, with scope for further share gains.
  • Adjacent categories underpenetrated globally; restructuring complete, positioning for accelerated US/Asia expansion.
  • Lifestyle brands (SportStyle, Onitsuka Tiger) compounding fast (+40%+ YoY), higher margins, could be the real long-term profit driver.

Mercado Libre: E-commerce Empire – [Business Breakdowns, EP.227]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Daniel Wu of BristolMoon Capital discusses Mercado Libre, a company that has evolved from being the “eBay of Latam” to a major e-commerce and fintech player in Latin America.
  • Mercado Libre is described as an amalgamation of Amazon Retail and Alipay, with a dominant market share in e-commerce in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
  • Founded in 1999 in Buenos Aires by Marcos Galperin and co-founders, Mercado Libre differentiated itself by focusing on sustainable growth strategies instead of chasing rapid user acquisition, allowing it to thrive through economic downturns and emerge as a major player in the region.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Amber Enterprises: Implication of Rs 1,200 Crore Infusion in Iljin Electronics from PE

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Amber Group’s electronics arm, ILJIN Electronics, has raised Rs 1,200 crore in its first-ever institutional fundraise, led by private equity firm ChrysCapital and supported by InCred Growth Partners.
  • This capital infusion accelerates ILJIN’s organic expansion & supports its strategic inorganic growth ambitions, positioning the company as key beneficiary of India’s push for self-reliance under PLI and ECMS schemes.
  • The fundraise is a powerful validation of Amber’s strategic pivot towards high-growth EMS sector, paving the way for sustained, multi-year growth and a potential re-rating of the consolidated entity.

Urban Company IPO – Beauty-Led Platform With Structural Growth Tailwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Urban Company is India’s largest organized online home-services platform, with ~60% of revenues from Beauty & Wellness and dominant market share across categories.
  • IPO proceeds (~₹4,720 mn fresh issue) will be used to strengthen technology, expand professional training, enhance branding, and fund working capital.
  • The platform connects customers with vetted professionals for beauty, cleaning, repairs, and home improvement, differentiated by its supply-controlled model (training, kits, quality standards).

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Macro: France: Déjà Vu? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • France: Déjà Vu?
  • Global Commodities: Risk premium out, storage premium in
  • Gold Reaches New All-Time Highs & UBS Expects More Agriculture Buying
  • Central Bank Independence and Low Inflation? Not Necessarily
  • EM Fixed Income: Wake me up when September starts
  • Sri Lanka Cushions U.S. Tariff Shock, Faces Twin EU Compliance Tests
  • Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios
  • A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 2
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (1h-Aug)
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Foreign Direct Investment

France: Déjà Vu?

By Alastair Newton

  • Despite the near certainty that the Bayrou government will fall on 8 September, investors are wary, rather than spooked, reckoning that they have seen all this before.
  • They are likely correct to judge that compromises will then be found, allowing the 2026 budget to be passed by a new centrist government.
  • However, this would again only be putting off the day when a real crisis point is reached.

Global Commodities: Risk premium out, storage premium in

By At Any Rate

  • Global oil demand remains relatively healthy with little signs of a near term global recession
  • Sanctions on Russia and Iran could impact oil supply, but buyers are finding ways to navigate around restrictions
  • Non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace global demand, leading to a surplus and potentially pushing prices into the 60s by year end.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Gold Reaches New All-Time Highs & UBS Expects More Agriculture Buying

By The Commodity Report

  • Meanwhile, the other commodity cohorts are now deeply “undervalued” when compared to the price of gold.
  • Commodities excluding gold, relative to gold prices, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, according to a graphic by Topdown Charts…
  • In the latest UBS CTA-flow analysis, the investment bank says that it “expects more agricultural buybacks in the coming weeks.” 

Central Bank Independence and Low Inflation? Not Necessarily

By Said Desaque

  • Despite concerns about loss of independence during a second Trump administration, the Fed will always be answerable to Congress in terms of the policy conduct towards achieving its dual mandate.
  • The Fed has enjoyed independence from the Treasury since 1951, but it has achieved better inflation outcomes since being required to pursue a politically imposed dual mandate.
  • Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have been bestowed with greater independence, but both have struggled to achieve their respective inflation targets since the COVID-19 pandemic.

EM Fixed Income: Wake me up when September starts

By At Any Rate

  • Global growth has been revised upwards since June, with a persistent trend in positive economic data.
  • The Fed is facing pressure to cut rates, with markets already pricing in a September easing.
  • EM local markets are looking appealing, with credit suffering from valuation issues rather than fundamental problems.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sri Lanka Cushions U.S. Tariff Shock, Faces Twin EU Compliance Tests

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • June exports dipped 1.04% YoY but rose 11% month-on-month  
  • Sri Lanka uses diplomacy to safeguard US$300 million US market  
  • Domestic Reforms, EU market access next on agenda

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

By At Any Rate

  • Steepening of the 530s treasury curve globally is at historically high levels, driven by different factors in the US, Europe, and the UK
  • US curve steepness is reflective of repricing of additional Fed easing, while Europe’s steepening is technical and related to Dutch pension fund transitions
  • Market hesitancy to fade the steepness due to ongoing technical flows in Europe and front-end driven steepening in the US, with uncertainty surrounding terminal rates in both regions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 2

By Rikki Malik

  • Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
  • As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
  • We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (1h-Aug)

By Actinver

  • Inflation in the first half of August stood at -0.02% bw due to a positive surprise in core inflation.
  • With this result, the annual rate rose slightly to 3.49%.
  • For this fortnight, the market consensus was at 0.12% bw and our estimate at 0.08% bw. T

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Foreign Direct Investment

By Actinver

  • Banco de México’s balance of payments data shows that in the first half of the year, Foreign Direct Investment inflows totaled USD 34.3 billion, 2.2% higher than in the same period of 2024.
  • Of the total investments, USD 28.9 billion (84%) corresponds to reinvested earnings, USD 3.1 billion (9%) to new investments, and USD 2.2 billion (6%) to intercompany reinvestment.
  • The performance of new investments stands out, registering an annual growth of 63% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching levels not seen since 2023.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Industrials: S&T Holdings, Marubeni Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop
  • Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

Regarding the Six KRX Sector Names that Ran Ahead of Friday’s Official Review Drop

By Sanghyun Park

  • Six names stood out with simultaneous volume spikes and sharp pops last Friday; all Semis and Autos additions with big passive impact, while all others showed no tape action.
  • Results likely leaked early, prompting front-running on Semis and Autos adds—high passive impact names—causing Friday’s sharp volume and price spikes.
  • Early movers are mostly priced in; Thursday momentum plays still work, but Monday–Thursday morning requires caution. Focus on volume-driven flows before loading positions, long-short basket viable for other passive-impact names.

Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

By Rahul Jain

  • Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.
  • Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.
  • Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CRH , Copper, Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CRH (CRH US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Positive Earnings and Omnicom–Interpublic Merger
  • Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term
  • Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

CRH (CRH US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Positive Earnings and Omnicom–Interpublic Merger

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

By Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

By Sameer Taneja

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Sep 08
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Daily Brief Consumer: Chery Automobile, Pacific Industrial, The Keepers Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Pop Mart, SHEIN, Kraft Heinz Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case
  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai
  • [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – September 2025
  • Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?
  • Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?
  • SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended “De Minimis” Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%
  • Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), a Chinese automobile manufacturer, has secured HKEx listing approval for a US$1.5-2.0 billion IPO.
  • In Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on weakening trends of the primary business, gross margin pressure, declining contract liabilities and factoring of receivables. 

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai

By Arun George

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

By Travis Lundy

  • Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August. 
  • Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050). 
  • As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – September 2025

By Sameer Taneja

Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Information regarding ％ of female managers and gender wage gap, which were previously required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, will move to the “Sustainability Philosophy and Initiatives” section.
  • This change in description will make issues such as % of female managers and gender wage gap more clear, thereby improving the inconsistencies with the company’s goals and policies.
  • Since disclosure of compensation incentives for employees other than board members will be required, this may encourage more companies to introduce compensation incentives for non-board members employees.

Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025. 
  • The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU,  performance would decline.
  • In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended “De Minimis” Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
  • In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
  • We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress

Weekly Update (CON, HNZ, BRSL)

By Richard Howe

  • On September 2, 2025, Kraft Heinz (KHC) announced that it will be breaking up into two companies.
  • The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.
  • North American Grocery Co would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tuas Ltd, Tencent, Figma, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, TaskUs and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes
  • Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More
  • Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.
  • TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
  • Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX300 Index changes.

Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
  • Highlights: Major stocks, including Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK), trade at historically cheap implied volatility. Upcoming earnings are starting to be reflected in November IV.
  • Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term

By Andrei Zakharov

  • California based Figma Inc. reported another strong quarter, but shares sold off over 20% given an early lockup release of some ~11.4M Class A shares.
  • I estimate ~$630M worth of Figma shares became eligible for sale on the second trading day immediately following public release of earnings for the 2Q’FY25.
  • I think selling pressure in Figma stock is expected to ease as valuation improved and VC shareholders agreed to extend their lockup with respect to ~54% of Class A shares.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

By Patrick Liao

TaskUs Privatization Faces Opposition Amid Potential for Improved Offer and Valuation Discrepancies

By Special Situation Investments

  • TaskUs is being privatized by Blackstone and founders at $16.50/share, opposed by activists and ISS, expecting improved offer.
  • TaskUs projects $75-$120 million free cash flow in 2025, potentially funding the buyout with minimal additional investment.
  • TaskUs specializes in premium BPO services, showing strong growth in Trust & Safety and AI Services segments, less vulnerable to automation.

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