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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Health Care: Virtus Health, Yunkang Group, Aier Eye Hospital Group, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Eris Lifesciences, Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Virtus Health & BGH: Truth in Takeovers
  • Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability
  • Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) 2021/2022Q1 Results – Overvaluation and a Risky Outlook
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) 1Q22: Sales Growth Outshined by Weaker Margin; Guidance Unchanged
  • Eris Lifesciences – Niche Launches to Aid Growth over the Medium Term
  • GSK Pharma – Muted 4QFY22; Focus Remains on Key Brands to Revitalize Growth

Virtus Health & BGH: Truth in Takeovers

By David Blennerhassett

  • With under three weeks until Virtus Health (VRT AU) shareholders vote on CapVest’s Offer, BGH continues to gradually push out the tendering period for its own Offer.
  • The outcome of the Scheme Meeting is all but a foregone conclusion assuming BGH sticks to its guns and is not supportive; which then potentially rekindles this competitive bidding situation.
  • This insight discusses the constraints BGH needs to adhere to in “truth in takeover” statements. There are still a handful of moving parts to unfold in this transaction.

Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability

By Clarence Chu

  • Yunkang Group (2325 HK) raised around US$139m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • On its bookbuild, subscription rates were lackluster and market sentiment hasn’t been the greatest.
  • Similar recent deals with weak subscription rates had seen subdued listing performances by the end of their respective first weeks.

Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) 2021/2022Q1 Results – Overvaluation and a Risky Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Aier’s private placement was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but we don’t think it signals a complete policy shift that private medical institutions are welcomed by capital markets.
  • The high goodwill impairment risk and medical disputes are great concerns. However, if Aier changes its development mode, its performance growth would probably slow down or becomes uncertain.
  • Aier’s Q2 performance could be affected by pandemic/lockdown. Even after continuous corrections, Aier is still overvalued based on current valuation, which has not priced in all the concerns and risks.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) 1Q22: Sales Growth Outshined by Weaker Margin; Guidance Unchanged

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) shares declined 5% since I published initial bearish note on the company in December. I remain bearish on the name.
  • Despite a 60% y/y jump in revenue in Q1 2022, the company is still guiding for just 15% y/y revenue growth in 2022. Operating margin has deteriorated in Q1.
  • Chugai’s significant dependency on COVID-19 drugs amid declining new infections and hospitalizations globally, remain the major overhang on the growth prospects of the company.

Eris Lifesciences – Niche Launches to Aid Growth over the Medium Term

By Motilal Oswal

  • Promising start for Drolute and Xsulin – The Dydrogesterone market is at an interesting phase, with an improvement in demand due to better access, affordability, and technical superiority over Progesterone.
  • Favorable demand-supply and marketing efforts to drive ‘Drolute’ sales for ERIS
  • Well-positioned to gain market share in the Insulin market – ERIS has expanded its Anti-Diabetic offering, with the recent launch of human/premix Insulin

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


GSK Pharma – Muted 4QFY22; Focus Remains on Key Brands to Revitalize Growth

By Motilal Oswal

  • Slower offtake witnessed in the Vaccine segment – GLXO delivered a lower-than-expected performance in 4QFY22. Subdued YoY growth in sales and higher raw material cost affected profitability.
  • One-off tax provision leads to a quarterly loss – Revenue was up 9% YoY to INR8.1b (est. of INR9.2b).
  • Key takeaways – Secondary sales data from AIOCD indicates that Pain therapy/Anti-Infective/ Dermatology (~12%/~25%/~28% of overall sales) saw a growth of ~39%/ 21%/5% YoY in 4QFY22, driving the outperformance against IPM.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Capital Markets: Woori Financial Group , Yunkang Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Woori Financials Placement – Almost a Clean-Up Although past Deals Haven’t Done Much
  • Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability

Woori Financials Placement – Almost a Clean-Up Although past Deals Haven’t Done Much

By Sumeet Singh

  • KDIC is looking to sell around half of its remaining stake in Woori Financial Group (WFG).
  • This is almost a clean-up trade considering that KDIC had a stake of nearly 18% at the start of 2021 and will now be reduced to a less than 2%.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.

Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability

By Clarence Chu

  • Yunkang Group (2325 HK) raised around US$139m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • On its bookbuild, subscription rates were lackluster and market sentiment hasn’t been the greatest.
  • Similar recent deals with weak subscription rates had seen subdued listing performances by the end of their respective first weeks.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Indonesia: Agile Property Holdings, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Yuzhou Group
  • Perusahaan Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Yuzhou Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Perusahaan Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale, mainly due to its indirect SOE status. PGN is 57% owned by Pertamina, which is in turn fully owned by the Indonesian government through the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises. PGN is the dominant player in Indonesia’s natural gas transmission and distribution sector, with a near monopoly over the country’s gas pipelines. As a utilities company, PGN plays a key role in ensuring the supply of affordable gas for end-consumers and helping the country transition to cleaner energy (and away from coal).

Our assessment also considers PGN’s robust standalone financial and leverage profile. That said, the company faces declining pricing power and its margins could weaken, due to the government’s price cap on natural gas sales to industrial consumers. The PGASIJ bond has a Change of Control put at 101, in the event the government ceases to own at least a 51% stake in the company.

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”, considering PGN’s healthy financial profile and strong liquidity. Moreover, the high oil price environment would benefit its upstream operations (under Saka Energi). That said, the company faces a debt maturity wall in May 2024, when the USD 1.35 bn PGASIJ 5.125 24 and USD 405 mn SAKAEI 4.45 24 will come due.

We initiate coverage of PGN with a “Hold” recommendation.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Faith Inc, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Tencent Music, Affirm Holdings, Money Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co
  • SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.
  • TME – Miss on Revenue and Margins; Earnings Continue to Remain Under Pressure
  • Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative
  • Money Forward (3994): Large Additional Investment in Indonesian SaaS Company

Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co

By Travis Lundy

  • Faith Inc (4295 JP) is a very smallcap contents management and platform business. As a business, one could give it a miss forever, but it is cash-rich. 
  • The company is doing a very large buyback, and for someone who decided they’d be interested, there is a large block for sale. 
  • The thing is… one would have to act quickly and aggressively.

SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC reported revenue/GM were US$1,869/40% for revenue/GM in 1Q22 respectively. The revenue matched to our expectation, but the GM was exceeding ~8% versus guidance.
  • The outlook is a little bit lower than our expectation for revenue/GM to be US$1860-1,897/37-39% in 2Q22 guidance.
  • The overall demand situation is growing up although inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors may affect. 

TME – Miss on Revenue and Margins; Earnings Continue to Remain Under Pressure

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent Music (TME US) reported 1Q2022 results today. Revenue declined 15% YoY to RMB6.64bn (vs consensus RMB6.69n) while reported OP dropped 35.7% YoY to RMB749m (vs consensus RMB817m).
  • Revenue from Online music services declined YoY for the first time since 2017 while revenue from Social Entertainment services further declined during the quarter.
  • We expect TME’s earnings to remain under pressure with increased competition and regulatory restrictions on livestreaming sector.

Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Fintech unicorn could report strong earnings results for FY Q3 2022. Total revenue increased by 54% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to ~$55M for the reporting period.
  • Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  closed a $500M revolving ABS deal and added $2.5B in new funding capacity from various partners. Total funding capacity was ~$9B, marking a 55% YoY increase.  
  • Sovereign wealth fund GIC Singapore acquired ~$126 million worth of Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  shares in April at an average of $33.00 per share.

Money Forward (3994): Large Additional Investment in Indonesian SaaS Company

By Mita Securities

  • The company has made multiple investments in Mekari since its first investment in 2018
  • This investment is a large one, equivalent to approximately 6.2bn yen. We understand that the largest investment the company has made in the past was approximately 3.4bn yen in Smartcamp (a consolidated subsidiary).
  • The company’s balance sheet at the end of 1Q FY11/22 showed 5.4bn yen in investment securities and 4.8bn yen in goodwill

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Singapore: Hwa Hong Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Hwa Hong’s Conditional Offer Amid Family Tussle
  • Hwa Hong’s Voluntary Conditional Offer at S$0.370

Hwa Hong’s Conditional Offer Amid Family Tussle

By David Blennerhassett

  • Ong Choo Eng and his son Ong Eng Yaw, together with Roswell Assets, Dymon Asia Private Equity, and Crytalic Star have launched a voluntary Offer for Hwa Hong (HWAH SP).
  • The S$0.37/share Offer is a nine-year high and a 27.6% premium to last close. It has not been declared final. 
  • However, it appears not all of the founding members of the company are on the same page. The family fissure became public after the last independent director resigned this month. 

Hwa Hong’s Voluntary Conditional Offer at S$0.370

By Arun George

  • Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP) announced a voluntary conditional cash offer from Mr Ong Choo and partners at S$0.370 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is the culmination of a brewing family feud which pits Mr Ong Choo against the families of his five brothers. 
  • The offer price is a 9-year share price high. We estimate around 60% of the public float needs to accept the offer to meet the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Event-Driven: Ryohin Keikaku, Tabcorp Ltd, Faith Inc, Hwa Hong Corp, Virtus Health, Woori Financial Group , SAMPYO Cement, John Laing Environmental Ass, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup
  • Tabcorp & The Lottery Co Spin-Off – Valuation Grids and Index Treatment
  • Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co
  • Hwa Hong’s Conditional Offer Amid Family Tussle
  • Virtus Health & BGH: Truth in Takeovers
  • Hwa Hong’s Voluntary Conditional Offer at S$0.370
  • Block Deal Sale of Woori Financial Group
  • Sampyo Cement: Likely Exit from KOSDAQ150 & Move to KOSPI
  • FTSE UK: Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 2.0
  • BBVA/Garanti: End of Offer Period

MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 22 deletions for the MSCI Japan Index at the May SAIR. The changes were expected and there is large short buildup on quite a few of the stocks.
  • Over the last month, the largest increase in shorts as a percentage of passive selling was on Mercari Inc, Ryohin Keikaku, Tokyo Century Corp, Sohgo Security Services, Pola Orbis Holdings.
  • The deletions have underperformed the TOPIX by 22% over the last 6 months and by 10% over the last two months. Position for a bounce post implementation.

Tabcorp & The Lottery Co Spin-Off – Valuation Grids and Index Treatment

By Travis Lundy

  • Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) will soon spin out its Lottery and Keno business, to be called The Lottery Corp (TLC AU). TAH shares go ex-TLC on 24 May.  
  • The question is where do they trade. What is in the price? What is not? What are the potential index implications?
  • This insight provides a grid of index implications and pro-forma valuations (EV/EBITDA, PER, Dividend Yield) for each and both and the combined entity.

Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co

By Travis Lundy

  • Faith Inc (4295 JP) is a very smallcap contents management and platform business. As a business, one could give it a miss forever, but it is cash-rich. 
  • The company is doing a very large buyback, and for someone who decided they’d be interested, there is a large block for sale. 
  • The thing is… one would have to act quickly and aggressively.

Hwa Hong’s Conditional Offer Amid Family Tussle

By David Blennerhassett

  • Ong Choo Eng and his son Ong Eng Yaw, together with Roswell Assets, Dymon Asia Private Equity, and Crytalic Star have launched a voluntary Offer for Hwa Hong (HWAH SP).
  • The S$0.37/share Offer is a nine-year high and a 27.6% premium to last close. It has not been declared final. 
  • However, it appears not all of the founding members of the company are on the same page. The family fissure became public after the last independent director resigned this month. 

Virtus Health & BGH: Truth in Takeovers

By David Blennerhassett

  • With under three weeks until Virtus Health (VRT AU) shareholders vote on CapVest’s Offer, BGH continues to gradually push out the tendering period for its own Offer.
  • The outcome of the Scheme Meeting is all but a foregone conclusion assuming BGH sticks to its guns and is not supportive; which then potentially rekindles this competitive bidding situation.
  • This insight discusses the constraints BGH needs to adhere to in “truth in takeover” statements. There are still a handful of moving parts to unfold in this transaction.

Hwa Hong’s Voluntary Conditional Offer at S$0.370

By Arun George

  • Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP) announced a voluntary conditional cash offer from Mr Ong Choo and partners at S$0.370 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is the culmination of a brewing family feud which pits Mr Ong Choo against the families of his five brothers. 
  • The offer price is a 9-year share price high. We estimate around 60% of the public float needs to accept the offer to meet the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. 

Block Deal Sale of Woori Financial Group

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KDIC will sell its 1.81% stake of Woori Financial Group. 
  • The block deal price will range from 15,229 won to 15,700 won (0 to 3% discount) and we would take the deal even at little discount.
  • Woori Financial Group’s share price continues to trade at deep valuation multiples as it is trading at P/B of 0.4x and P/E of 3.9x (using 2022 consensus earnings estimates).

Sampyo Cement: Likely Exit from KOSDAQ150 & Move to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • Sampyo Cement which is currently included in KOSDAQ150 is likely to be removed from this index in the coming months as the company wants to move to KOSPI.
  • If Sampyo Cement is excluded from KOSDAQ150, we estimate there could be about 9 billion won worth of passive funds which could exit the stock. ADTV is 1.6 billion won.
  • Therefore, we believe Sampyo Cement’s shares could face further weakness in the next several months. It will hold an EGM to vote on the move to KOSPI on 4 July.

FTSE UK: Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 2.0

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The FTSE UK Index Series is a widely tracked family of indices representing the  performance of the UK public equity market.  These indices are reviewed on a quarterly basis.
  • In FTSE UK Index Series: Leaderboard for June 2022, I discussed the potential constituency changes for FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 for the upcoming June 2022 index review.
  • Below is an updated look at these potential index changes.

BBVA/Garanti: End of Offer Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Until last week, BBVA had already secured a 71.1% stake in Garanti. The deadline to accept BBVA’s takeover bid ends on 18 May. Settlement will take place on 19 May.
  • Gross spread is 0.2%. Recently, the offer price has acted as a support for the share price, which may drop if BBVA doesn’t reach the squeeze-out threshold. Tender.
  • The squeeze-out threshold is 98% (95% for delisting). My understanding is that the squeeze-out price is arithmetic average of the daily VWAP in the 30 days before threshold disclosure. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Ryohin Keikaku, Tabcorp Ltd, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, JD.com Inc., Asahi Group Holdings, Central Retail Corp Ltd, Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, Discovery, Inc., Ohsho Food Service, Aeon Co Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup
  • Tabcorp & The Lottery Co Spin-Off – Valuation Grids and Index Treatment
  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Smart Moves
  • JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q22 Result, Undervalued Despite of Weak Revenue
  • Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance
  • CRC: Growth Momentum Intact Despite Uncertainties
  • Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts
  • MergerTalk: Why Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Mis-Valuation Opportunity Rather Than A Value Trap
  • Ohsho Food Service (9936): OP Exceeds Our Forecast for Both FY3/22 Results and FY3/23 Guidance
  • Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy

MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 22 deletions for the MSCI Japan Index at the May SAIR. The changes were expected and there is large short buildup on quite a few of the stocks.
  • Over the last month, the largest increase in shorts as a percentage of passive selling was on Mercari Inc, Ryohin Keikaku, Tokyo Century Corp, Sohgo Security Services, Pola Orbis Holdings.
  • The deletions have underperformed the TOPIX by 22% over the last 6 months and by 10% over the last two months. Position for a bounce post implementation.

Tabcorp & The Lottery Co Spin-Off – Valuation Grids and Index Treatment

By Travis Lundy

  • Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) will soon spin out its Lottery and Keno business, to be called The Lottery Corp (TLC AU). TAH shares go ex-TLC on 24 May.  
  • The question is where do they trade. What is in the price? What is not? What are the potential index implications?
  • This insight provides a grid of index implications and pro-forma valuations (EV/EBITDA, PER, Dividend Yield) for each and both and the combined entity.

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Smart Moves

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Besides as nationalistic consumption play, Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) also offers attractive investment theses with bright growth prospects. Despite share price rebound, valuations are still not yet reflecting fundamentals.
  • The surge in demand for refrigerators and freezers during the pandemic-led lockdowns has boosted HSH’s business in 4M22 while it will also reap benefits from Rmb depreciation.
  • The government’s support of healthy development of residential real estate market will be positive towards smart home appliance demand which HSH is set to gain from its leadership position. 

JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q22 Result, Undervalued Despite of Weak Revenue

By Ming Lu

  • JD will continue to close its unprofitable minor businesses in following quarters.
  • The growth rate of total revenue slowed down in 1Q21 due to weak demand of home appliance.
  • We believe JD has a significant upside despite that the revenue growth will continue to slow down.

Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.
  • Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.
  • We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.

CRC: Growth Momentum Intact Despite Uncertainties

By Pi Research

  • Last week analyst meeting came out with neutral tone.We reiterate our BUY rating for CRC with a target price of Bt43.0,based on DCF (WACC of 8.2% and TG of 2%)
  • Management maintained its key 2022 financial guidance. CRC targeted 2022 sales growth of 15%-20%YoY, mainly from fashion business and targeted GPM retail sales to expend by 100-120bps YoY.
  • •CRC showed three measures to mitigate the effect from uncertainties under global issue such as(1)cost optimization by controlling OPEX growth to not be higher than 50% of total sales growth

Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts

By Joe Jasper

  • Following panic selling that we have outlined over the past month, we finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE.
  • There is hope that this panic buying could signal a major bottom, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in.
  • We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the steep RS uptrends on Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) for more confirmation that a major low is in place. Details below.

MergerTalk: Why Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Mis-Valuation Opportunity Rather Than A Value Trap

By Robert Sassoon

  • The Netflix Inc (NFLX US) fall out has created a significant buying opportunity in Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD US)
  • Warren Buffet’s purchases of WBD peer Paramount Global (PARA US) only serves to validate the buying opportunity in the much cheaper WBD
  • Attributing a PARA-like value multiple to WBD’s Consensus 2023 EBITDA which is a little lower than management’s reaffirmed guidance, indicates a value up lift of 80% plus

Ohsho Food Service (9936): OP Exceeds Our Forecast for Both FY3/22 Results and FY3/23 Guidance

By Mita Securities

  • On May 16, Ohsho Food Service (9936, the company) announced FY3/22 full-year sales of 84.775bn yen (+5.1% YoY), OP of 6.959bn yen (+14.6% YoY), and RP of 13.024bn yen (+89.7% YoY)
  • 4Q (Jan-Mar) OP was 1.938bn yen (+33.7% YoY; +6.0% QoQ), and OPM was 8.8% (7.2% in 4Q FY3/21; 8.2% in 3Q)
  • The company’s guidance for FY3/23 is sales of 90.029bn yen (+6.2% YoY), OP of 7.516bn yen (+8.0% YoY), OPM 8.3% (+0.1ppt YoY) and RP of 8.627bn yen (-33.8% YoY)

Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon has finally published numbers on its e-commerce growth and performance.
  • It has a ¥1 trillion target for FY2025 and while this is still a far off target, Aeon is making progress. 
  • Digital sales have doubled in the past two years and Aeon is now well ahead of Seven & I which continues to fail to present a coherent e-commerce plan.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Yunkang Group, JD.com Inc., Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Tencent Music, Aier Eye Hospital Group, FTSE China A50 Index, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Smart Moves
  • Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability
  • JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q22 Result, Undervalued Despite of Weak Revenue
  • SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.
  • TME – Miss on Revenue and Margins; Earnings Continue to Remain Under Pressure
  • Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) 2021/2022Q1 Results – Overvaluation and a Risky Outlook
  • China A and HSI Re Short Levels
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Yuzhou Group

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Smart Moves

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Besides as nationalistic consumption play, Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) also offers attractive investment theses with bright growth prospects. Despite share price rebound, valuations are still not yet reflecting fundamentals.
  • The surge in demand for refrigerators and freezers during the pandemic-led lockdowns has boosted HSH’s business in 4M22 while it will also reap benefits from Rmb depreciation.
  • The government’s support of healthy development of residential real estate market will be positive towards smart home appliance demand which HSH is set to gain from its leadership position. 

Yunkang Group IPO Trading –  Subdued Subscription Rates Combined with Uncertain Future Profitability

By Clarence Chu

  • Yunkang Group (2325 HK) raised around US$139m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • On its bookbuild, subscription rates were lackluster and market sentiment hasn’t been the greatest.
  • Similar recent deals with weak subscription rates had seen subdued listing performances by the end of their respective first weeks.

JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q22 Result, Undervalued Despite of Weak Revenue

By Ming Lu

  • JD will continue to close its unprofitable minor businesses in following quarters.
  • The growth rate of total revenue slowed down in 1Q21 due to weak demand of home appliance.
  • We believe JD has a significant upside despite that the revenue growth will continue to slow down.

SMIC (981.HK): The Overall Demand Situation Is Growing Up in 2022.

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC reported revenue/GM were US$1,869/40% for revenue/GM in 1Q22 respectively. The revenue matched to our expectation, but the GM was exceeding ~8% versus guidance.
  • The outlook is a little bit lower than our expectation for revenue/GM to be US$1860-1,897/37-39% in 2Q22 guidance.
  • The overall demand situation is growing up although inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors may affect. 

TME – Miss on Revenue and Margins; Earnings Continue to Remain Under Pressure

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent Music (TME US) reported 1Q2022 results today. Revenue declined 15% YoY to RMB6.64bn (vs consensus RMB6.69n) while reported OP dropped 35.7% YoY to RMB749m (vs consensus RMB817m).
  • Revenue from Online music services declined YoY for the first time since 2017 while revenue from Social Entertainment services further declined during the quarter.
  • We expect TME’s earnings to remain under pressure with increased competition and regulatory restrictions on livestreaming sector.

Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) 2021/2022Q1 Results – Overvaluation and a Risky Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Aier’s private placement was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but we don’t think it signals a complete policy shift that private medical institutions are welcomed by capital markets.
  • The high goodwill impairment risk and medical disputes are great concerns. However, if Aier changes its development mode, its performance growth would probably slow down or becomes uncertain.
  • Aier’s Q2 performance could be affected by pandemic/lockdown. Even after continuous corrections, Aier is still overvalued based on current valuation, which has not priced in all the concerns and risks.

China A and HSI Re Short Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • A50 faces key trendline sell/pivot resistance that will cap the rise with HSI nudging back to sell territory with fresh chart lows expected.
  • A50 trendline resistance is the bull/bear inflection point. We look for a sell or rejection near 13,700 if not just under this level for  a test on the 12,400.
  • HSI 21k sell barrier while watching for HK tech rise to run out of steam near 4,500 resistance.

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Yuzhou Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

South Korea: Woori Financial Group , SAMPYO Cement and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Woori Financials Placement – Almost a Clean-Up Although past Deals Haven’t Done Much
  • Block Deal Sale of Woori Financial Group
  • Sampyo Cement: Likely Exit from KOSDAQ150 & Move to KOSPI

Woori Financials Placement – Almost a Clean-Up Although past Deals Haven’t Done Much

By Sumeet Singh

  • KDIC is looking to sell around half of its remaining stake in Woori Financial Group (WFG).
  • This is almost a clean-up trade considering that KDIC had a stake of nearly 18% at the start of 2021 and will now be reduced to a less than 2%.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.

Block Deal Sale of Woori Financial Group

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KDIC will sell its 1.81% stake of Woori Financial Group. 
  • The block deal price will range from 15,229 won to 15,700 won (0 to 3% discount) and we would take the deal even at little discount.
  • Woori Financial Group’s share price continues to trade at deep valuation multiples as it is trading at P/B of 0.4x and P/E of 3.9x (using 2022 consensus earnings estimates).

Sampyo Cement: Likely Exit from KOSDAQ150 & Move to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • Sampyo Cement which is currently included in KOSDAQ150 is likely to be removed from this index in the coming months as the company wants to move to KOSPI.
  • If Sampyo Cement is excluded from KOSDAQ150, we estimate there could be about 9 billion won worth of passive funds which could exit the stock. ADTV is 1.6 billion won.
  • Therefore, we believe Sampyo Cement’s shares could face further weakness in the next several months. It will hold an EGM to vote on the move to KOSPI on 4 July.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Ryohin Keikaku, Faith Inc, Harmonic Drive Systems, Toshiba Corp, JPY, SMC Corp, Asahi Group Holdings, Ohsho Food Service, Aeon Co Ltd, Money Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup
  • Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co
  • Harmonic Drive – Orders Rolling Over
  • About an Article on Corporate Governance or Economic Security
  • Asian FX Action Levels
  • SMC – Guidance Ignores Potential For Down Cycle
  • Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance
  • Ohsho Food Service (9936): OP Exceeds Our Forecast for Both FY3/22 Results and FY3/23 Guidance
  • Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy
  • Money Forward (3994): Large Additional Investment in Indonesian SaaS Company

MSCI Japan Index Rebalance: Covering to Come After Large Short Buildup

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 22 deletions for the MSCI Japan Index at the May SAIR. The changes were expected and there is large short buildup on quite a few of the stocks.
  • Over the last month, the largest increase in shorts as a percentage of passive selling was on Mercari Inc, Ryohin Keikaku, Tokyo Century Corp, Sohgo Security Services, Pola Orbis Holdings.
  • The deletions have underperformed the TOPIX by 22% over the last 6 months and by 10% over the last two months. Position for a bounce post implementation.

Ya Gotta Have Faith (4295). Or Not. Chance for Someone To Get A Big Position in a Net Cash Co

By Travis Lundy

  • Faith Inc (4295 JP) is a very smallcap contents management and platform business. As a business, one could give it a miss forever, but it is cash-rich. 
  • The company is doing a very large buyback, and for someone who decided they’d be interested, there is a large block for sale. 
  • The thing is… one would have to act quickly and aggressively.

Harmonic Drive – Orders Rolling Over

By Mio Kato

  • Harmonic Drive posted revenue that was a touch above guidance but just below consensus and rather weak OP of just ¥2.23bn. 
  • While that was just below consensus it represented a deviation from typical gross margin and SG&A trends that is concerning. 
  • More troubling however is the drop in orders and particularly the composition thereof.

About an Article on Corporate Governance or Economic Security

By Aki Matsumoto

  • I have considered the Nikkei article, “How to lead Toshiba, which has been split at the seams over security and the Corporate Governance Code, down the path of revitalization.”
  • Toshiba may not have made serious business decisions on its own for many years because it’s been working in tandem with METI as a company responsible for METI’s key policies.
  • Toshiba has adopted its Company with US-type 3-Committees for over 10-years, but provides a case of how board practices that are just for appearances don’t improve actual practices and performance.

Asian FX Action Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.
  • USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.
  • USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.

SMC – Guidance Ignores Potential For Down Cycle

By Mio Kato

  • SMC 4QFY22 was in-line with consensus revenue estimates at ¥185bn, but missed at the OP level with ¥52.7bn (10% below consensus) in a now familiar pattern for the sector. 
  • The company’s FY23 guidance was strong projecting revenue of ¥805bn (+4.5% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥265bn (+6.9% vs. consensus). 
  • The problem is that this ignores the typical cyclicality for the company and we believe OP will in fact be down YoY.

Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.
  • Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.
  • We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.

Ohsho Food Service (9936): OP Exceeds Our Forecast for Both FY3/22 Results and FY3/23 Guidance

By Mita Securities

  • On May 16, Ohsho Food Service (9936, the company) announced FY3/22 full-year sales of 84.775bn yen (+5.1% YoY), OP of 6.959bn yen (+14.6% YoY), and RP of 13.024bn yen (+89.7% YoY)
  • 4Q (Jan-Mar) OP was 1.938bn yen (+33.7% YoY; +6.0% QoQ), and OPM was 8.8% (7.2% in 4Q FY3/21; 8.2% in 3Q)
  • The company’s guidance for FY3/23 is sales of 90.029bn yen (+6.2% YoY), OP of 7.516bn yen (+8.0% YoY), OPM 8.3% (+0.1ppt YoY) and RP of 8.627bn yen (-33.8% YoY)

Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon has finally published numbers on its e-commerce growth and performance.
  • It has a ¥1 trillion target for FY2025 and while this is still a far off target, Aeon is making progress. 
  • Digital sales have doubled in the past two years and Aeon is now well ahead of Seven & I which continues to fail to present a coherent e-commerce plan.

Money Forward (3994): Large Additional Investment in Indonesian SaaS Company

By Mita Securities

  • The company has made multiple investments in Mekari since its first investment in 2018
  • This investment is a large one, equivalent to approximately 6.2bn yen. We understand that the largest investment the company has made in the past was approximately 3.4bn yen in Smartcamp (a consolidated subsidiary).
  • The company’s balance sheet at the end of 1Q FY11/22 showed 5.4bn yen in investment securities and 4.8bn yen in goodwill

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma