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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Perpetual Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Arbs Take Another Hit as Regal’s Offer for Perpetual Puts Pendal Deal at Risk
  • EQT/Baring/Regal’s Tilt For Perpetual Muddies Waters on Pendal (PDL AU) Deal
  • Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

Arbs Take Another Hit as Regal’s Offer for Perpetual Puts Pendal Deal at Risk

By Brian Freitas

  • Regal Partners and BPEA have made a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire Perpetual Ltd at A$30/share in cash. Perpetual would need to terminate the SID with Pendal Group.
  • Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)‘s Board has rejected the offer. Today’s price action is partially driven by arbs selling Pendal shares and buying back their Perpetual shorts. 
  • The Pendal Group / Perpetual Ltd price ratio is trading below the levels from August and could move higher if Perpetual and/or the consortium decide not to move ahead.

EQT/Baring/Regal’s Tilt For Perpetual Muddies Waters on Pendal (PDL AU) Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Perpetual (PPT AU) has received an indicative proposal in which EQT/Baring Private Equity Asia takes Perpetual’s private clients and corporate trustee businesses, and Regal (RPL AU) the asset management arm. 
  • The A$1.75bn buyout proposal, by way of a $30/share cash Offer – and an undefined Regal scrip alternative – was rejected by Perpetual as it “materially undervalues” the company.
  • The twist in the proposal is that it is contingent on the termination of the earlier-announced Scheme between Perpetual and Pendal Group (PDL AU)

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

By Arun George

  • Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice – pay a premium to merge with Pendal Group (PDL AU) or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. 
  • The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Adaro Energy, Fishlog and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • ADARO Solid 3Q 2022 : But Prefer ITMG
  • FishLog Raises US$3.5M to Empower Cold Storage Warehouses in Indonesia to Improve Utility

ADARO Solid 3Q 2022 : But Prefer ITMG

By Sameer Taneja

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) showed a sequential decline in earnings owing to a 6.8% QoQ decrease in pricing as discounts for their coal continued to build Vs. Newcastle.
  • While the stock trades at a 2.8x FY22 PE and 1.3x EV-EBTIDA FY22E with a 21% dividend yield, the market is pricing in a substantial decline in coal prices.
  • Adaro offers a significant margin of safety with 25% of the market cap in cash and decent capital allocation, but we prefer ITMG for its superior grades.

FishLog Raises US$3.5M to Empower Cold Storage Warehouses in Indonesia to Improve Utility

By e27

  • FishLog, an ecosystem enabler for the fisheries cold chain industry in Indonesia, has closed its US$3.5 million pre-Series A round
  • FishLog was established in 2020 by Bayu Anggara, Reza Fahlepi, and Abdul Halim to solve the fragmentation in cold chain fisheries in Indonesia

  • The agritech startup improves cold storage, processor, and distribution in Indonesia’s fisheries to enable the industry to meet global supply and demand better


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Daily Brief Singapore: Singapore Medical, Hg Exchange (HGX), GRP Ltd, Lazada Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Medical: TTW Bumps To S$0.40
  • Alternative Assets Marketplace Fundnel Buys Hg Exchange, Rebrands as Alta
  • Luminor Financial Leverages Asian SME Growth Engine
  • Lazada Group Publishes First ESG Report

Singapore Medical: TTW Bumps To S$0.40

By David Blennerhassett

  • I should have stuck to my guns.  Singapore Medical (SMG SP)‘s original Exit Offer was low-balled. The IFA all but conceded this. I mused that TTW probably needed to bump.
  • And now TTW has, bumping the Offer by 8.1% to S$0.40/share, and declaring the terms final.
  • The Offer remains subject to TTW holding 90% (with 77.42% in the bag already). The Offer has been extended to the 5 December. 

Alternative Assets Marketplace Fundnel Buys Hg Exchange, Rebrands as Alta

By e27

  • Singapore-based Fundnel, a leading digital marketplace for alternative investments, has acquired the blockchain-powered private digital securities exchange Hg Exchange (HGX).
  • According to a press release, the acquisition will enable Alta to support the tokenisation and digital custody of alternative assets.
  • This will create an end-to-end solution that makes it cheaper and faster to trade private securities, funds, and asset-backed securities like real estate and luxury assets.

Luminor Financial Leverages Asian SME Growth Engine

By Geoff Howie

  • Luminor Financial Leverages Asian SME Growth Engine “That’s where Luminor Financial has stepped in – we identified a huge gap in the market where SMEs are unable to obtain financing from traditional banks for various reasons,” she noted.
  • Luminor is a financial solutions business that aims to provide innovative financing solutions to SMEs across the region.

Lazada Group Publishes First ESG Report

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based ecommerce giant Lazada has released its first environmental, social, and governance (ESG) report.
  • As a largely unexplored concept in Southeast Asia, the firm enlisted the help of an independent consultant to map out its ESG priorities.
  • The core tenets of the firm’s ESG framework are “empowering communities, developing a future-ready workforce, ensuring responsible stewardship, and effective governance.”

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Daily Brief India: Bikaji Foods and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bikaji Foods International IPO – At an Equally Spicy Valuation

Bikaji Foods International IPO – At an Equally Spicy Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN) , an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO.
  • Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we’ll talk about implied valuations.

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Daily Brief United States: News Corp, Russell 2000 Index, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Microsoft Corp, Johnson & Johnson, Match Group Inc, Novavax Inc, A10 Networks, Vf Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • News Corp (NWS AU)’s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.
  • SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In
  • Meta Platforms: Is The Hyper Growth Story Over? (11/22)
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Turning Point Acquisition & Oncology Expansion
  • Microsoft Inc: The Designer Visual Design App & Other Developments
  • Johnson & Johnson: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers
  • Match Group 3Q22: Turnaround Brewing?
  • Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor
  • ATEN: Steady Growth, PT to $24
  • VF Corporation: Major Drivers

News Corp (NWS AU)’s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 17 October, News Corp (NWS AU) announced it had begun exploring a potential combination with Fox Corporation (FOXA US).
  • A merger of two parts of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire would combine Fox News and TMZ assets with NWS’ newspaper and online news operations.
  • Murdoch split his empire in 2013, placing the print business in a newly created NWS, and the TV and entertainment under Fox,

SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX dual top at 3,928 rolled just under the 3,950 top target. Break of wedge support was the touted trigger to add to our short group. 10yr 4.20% PT met.
  • SPX 3,700/650 is our pullback target add to risk but we must get past the NFP report first. RTY is our top long pick in the US at trendline.
  • Asia shorts (HSI and Taiwan) and Asia longs to layer into (NKY and ASX). Levels to coordinate with SPX 3,660 support.

Meta Platforms: Is The Hyper Growth Story Over? (11/22)

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms delivered a highly disappointing set of results with a huge earnings miss.
  • The company’s ballooning costs to fund its virtual reality vision have resulted in a drop in profitability.
  • We provide the stock of Meta Platforms with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Turning Point Acquisition & Oncology Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers delivered another all-around beat as the management continued to make an effort to expand its new product range and inline franchise.
  • In this quarter, the inline and new product portfolio grew by 13%, and the company managed to deliver non-GAAP EPS growth of 3%.
  • Revenues in the third quarter were approximately $11.2 billion and the inline and new product portfolio grew strongly up to 13%.

Microsoft Inc: The Designer Visual Design App & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft delivered a good result in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $25 billion, increasing by 24% and 31% in constant currency.
  • Microsoft is getting more customers that want to grow and innovate with its existing infrastructure.

Johnson & Johnson: R&D Expansion & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Johnson & Johnson has shown some recovery in its stock price which was backed by a solid result across its business segments.
  • Pharmaceutical growth was determined by robust commercial execution and access that enabled Johnson & Johnson to continue to deliver growth in operational growth.
  • We provide the stock of Johnson & Johnson with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price.

Match Group 3Q22: Turnaround Brewing?

By Aaron Gabin

  • After a massive guidedown last quarter, Match is beginning to show stability in the business, and offered a cautiously optimistic return to growth guide for 2023.
  • Tinder rebuild underway, 16% FX-Neutral growth was 2% ahead of consensus and drove the quarter’s beat.
  • 5-Pronged plan by new CEO Kim seems well thought out for what ails Match.

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

ATEN: Steady Growth, PT to $24

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN continues to demonstrate its growth ability by focusing on its security first approach. ATEN reported third quarter revenue slightly more than we were projecting
  • The steady growth ATEN has experienced this year has come through the diversification of its customer base
  • ATEN’s management asserted demand has been consistent and dependent on performance. ATEN has added more customers throughout the year, which should serve as a baseline for incremental revenue in 2023

VF Corporation: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • VF Corporation is operating in a challenging macro-economic backdrop and delivered a disappointing quarterly result.
  • The company barely managed to meet revenue expectations given a weak performance in China and also missed out on earnings expectations.
  • Apart from China, VF Corporation has witnessed an improvement across the rest of Asia, led by Japan and Korea.

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Daily Brief Japan: ROHM Co Ltd, Panasonic Corp, M3 Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)
  • Panasonic (6752) | Following the Yellow Brick Road to Battery Profits
  • M3: Covid Related Trials and Yen Depreciation Support Earnings Beat
  • Reason Behind the Difference in Management Between Family Companies and Others Is the Shareholding

Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

By Travis Lundy

  • ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.
  • The company also announced a stock buyback. It’s only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.
  • And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. 

Panasonic (6752) | Following the Yellow Brick Road to Battery Profits

By Mark Chadwick

  • The US Inflation Reduction Act will have a massively positive impact on Panasonic’s battery earnings for a decade 
  • Panasonic has just broken ground on a new battery plant in Kansas – the yellow brick road to further profitability 
  • We see a further 25% upside to the share price from the IRA impact on current battery capacity and even more on Kansas

M3: Covid Related Trials and Yen Depreciation Support Earnings Beat

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP)  reported 2QFY03/2023 results yesterday. Revenue grew 10.6% YoY to JPY56.7bn (vs consensus JPY54.7bn) while OP increased 31.5% YoY to JPY17.9bn (vs consensus JPY17.0bn).
  • The company’s earnings were mainly driven by Covid-19 related trials and a weaker Yen which mainly helped the overseas business post strong results.
  • M3’s growth prospects remain stagnant and the company’s valuation multiple is still expensive as earnings expectation has started to decline.

Reason Behind the Difference in Management Between Family Companies and Others Is the Shareholding

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Correlation analysis of the major shareholder factor with ROE, ROA, and Tobin’s Q shows that founding family companies tend to have relatively high profitability (ROA) and high stock price valuations.
  • On board practices, companies with more than 50% ownership are generally less concerned about improving their practices, because they don’t have to worry as much about voices of minority shareholders.
  • With regard to key actions, companies with shareholders holding more than 50% interest are presumed to be proactive in growth investments.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Tianqi Lithium, CanSino Biologics Inc, Giant Biogene Holding, China Communications Construction, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent and China Unicom Tie Up in New Joint Venture
  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Now, Could Be More
  • CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long
  • Giant Biogene: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): 4Q22 Looks to Be a Period of Acceleration
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Delta Dunia Makmur, Greenland Holdings Corp, Lenovo

Tencent and China Unicom Tie Up in New Joint Venture

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese social media giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. and state telecom operator China Unicom were cleared by the country’s antitrust regulator to set up a joint venture to develop data and cloud-related businesses.
  • The new business, one of 15 investment deals that cleared antitrust review Tuesday, will focus on content delivery networks and edge computing.
  • The partnership is another tie-up between Tencent and China Unicom after a 2017 investment in which the social media giant acquired a 5.18% stake in the telecom company.

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Now, Could Be More

By Brian Freitas


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.
  • CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. 
  • CanSino’s H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.

Giant Biogene: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Giant Biogene has priced its IPO at HK$24.30 per share, at the lower end of the company’s indicative IPO price range of HK$24.3-27.7 per share and raised HK$495.8m (US$63.2m).
  • The HK offering was oversubscribed by only 2.08 times while the international offering was subscribed by 4.22 times.
  • Though Biogene’s IPO was priced attractively, we think lower demand for the company’s shares led to pricing at the bottom of the IPO price range.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): 4Q22 Looks to Be a Period of Acceleration

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Apparently, China Communications Construction (1800 HK) has an uninspiring 3Q22, but this is mainly due to losses at concession projects and heavy credit and asset impairments.
  • We estimate outstanding backlog at Rmb3.28trn, enough to cover 4.5x FY22F revenue. Expansion in 3Q22 gross margin, against declines in 1Q22 and 2Q22, is a positive development.
  • Despite outperformance against major indexes YTD, CCCC still trades on 2.3x and 2.1x PERs for FY22-23. Its 0.16x P/B has overly discounted the value of underlying assets.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Delta Dunia Makmur, Greenland Holdings Corp, Lenovo

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ROHM Co Ltd, Tencent, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Samsung Electronics, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Fishlog, Microsoft Corp, A10 Networks, Lazada Group, Alphabet Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)
  • Tencent and China Unicom Tie Up in New Joint Venture
  • Meta Platforms: Is The Hyper Growth Story Over? (11/22)
  • Launching Single-Stock ETFs in Korea: Market Flow Impact Analysis
  • Reason Behind the Difference in Management Between Family Companies and Others Is the Shareholding
  • FishLog Raises US$3.5M to Empower Cold Storage Warehouses in Indonesia to Improve Utility
  • Microsoft Inc: The Designer Visual Design App & Other Developments
  • ATEN: Steady Growth, PT to $24
  • Lazada Group Publishes First ESG Report
  • Alphabet Inc: The Alter Acquisition & Other Drivers

Rohm (6963): Costs Up, FX Gains Up More, Small Buyback, Cheap (And N225 Inclusion In the Distance)

By Travis Lundy

  • ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) announced salutary H1 results on Nov 1. The numbers were good, the innards suggested cost pressures. The revised forecasts suggested conservativeness, or risk of weakness.
  • The company also announced a stock buyback. It’s only about 2% of shares out, which is 5-10% of Real World Float, but the stock has a low-beta risk character.
  • And it is quite cheap on a capital construct basis. EV/EBITDA to Mar23 on conservative guidance is 4.6x. Adj EV/EBITDA Mar23e deducing securities and net receivables? 3.7x. 

Tencent and China Unicom Tie Up in New Joint Venture

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese social media giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. and state telecom operator China Unicom were cleared by the country’s antitrust regulator to set up a joint venture to develop data and cloud-related businesses.
  • The new business, one of 15 investment deals that cleared antitrust review Tuesday, will focus on content delivery networks and edge computing.
  • The partnership is another tie-up between Tencent and China Unicom after a 2017 investment in which the social media giant acquired a 5.18% stake in the telecom company.

Meta Platforms: Is The Hyper Growth Story Over? (11/22)

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms delivered a highly disappointing set of results with a huge earnings miss.
  • The company’s ballooning costs to fund its virtual reality vision have resulted in a drop in profitability.
  • We provide the stock of Meta Platforms with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Launching Single-Stock ETFs in Korea: Market Flow Impact Analysis

By Sanghyun Park

  • The target market size that will be affected by the Default Option is estimated to be ₩92T. Up to 30% of them (₩30T) can flow into single-stock ETFs.
  • Competing against TDFs, half of this ₩30T is a conservative estimate for single-stock ETFs. Then, up to 40% of the ₩15T becomes the flow size entering the local stock market. 
  • KODEX’s Samsung Electronics single-stock ETF may dominate the market. In this case, at least ₩3-4T can flow into Samsung Electronics Ord.

Reason Behind the Difference in Management Between Family Companies and Others Is the Shareholding

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Correlation analysis of the major shareholder factor with ROE, ROA, and Tobin’s Q shows that founding family companies tend to have relatively high profitability (ROA) and high stock price valuations.
  • On board practices, companies with more than 50% ownership are generally less concerned about improving their practices, because they don’t have to worry as much about voices of minority shareholders.
  • With regard to key actions, companies with shareholders holding more than 50% interest are presumed to be proactive in growth investments.

FishLog Raises US$3.5M to Empower Cold Storage Warehouses in Indonesia to Improve Utility

By e27

  • FishLog, an ecosystem enabler for the fisheries cold chain industry in Indonesia, has closed its US$3.5 million pre-Series A round
  • FishLog was established in 2020 by Bayu Anggara, Reza Fahlepi, and Abdul Halim to solve the fragmentation in cold chain fisheries in Indonesia

  • The agritech startup improves cold storage, processor, and distribution in Indonesia’s fisheries to enable the industry to meet global supply and demand better


Microsoft Inc: The Designer Visual Design App & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft delivered a good result in the last quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $25 billion, increasing by 24% and 31% in constant currency.
  • Microsoft is getting more customers that want to grow and innovate with its existing infrastructure.

ATEN: Steady Growth, PT to $24

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN continues to demonstrate its growth ability by focusing on its security first approach. ATEN reported third quarter revenue slightly more than we were projecting
  • The steady growth ATEN has experienced this year has come through the diversification of its customer base
  • ATEN’s management asserted demand has been consistent and dependent on performance. ATEN has added more customers throughout the year, which should serve as a baseline for incremental revenue in 2023

Lazada Group Publishes First ESG Report

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based ecommerce giant Lazada has released its first environmental, social, and governance (ESG) report.
  • As a largely unexplored concept in Southeast Asia, the firm enlisted the help of an independent consultant to map out its ESG priorities.
  • The core tenets of the firm’s ESG framework are “empowering communities, developing a future-ready workforce, ensuring responsible stewardship, and effective governance.”

Alphabet Inc: The Alter Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet’s stock price has undergone a strong correction after the company delivered a disappointing third-quarter financial result, failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • Alphabet did have a decent underlying growth in Search and momentum in Cloud but the impact of currency conversion is reflected in their results.
  • Lapping the high growth levels from the previous year and the difficult macroeconomic environment also influenced the growth in their advertising revenues.

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Daily Brief Industrials: China Communications Construction, Hub Group Inc Cl A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): 4Q22 Looks to Be a Period of Acceleration
  • Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG):  Sell Short

China Comm Const (1800 HK): 4Q22 Looks to Be a Period of Acceleration

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Apparently, China Communications Construction (1800 HK) has an uninspiring 3Q22, but this is mainly due to losses at concession projects and heavy credit and asset impairments.
  • We estimate outstanding backlog at Rmb3.28trn, enough to cover 4.5x FY22F revenue. Expansion in 3Q22 gross margin, against declines in 1Q22 and 2Q22, is a positive development.
  • Despite outperformance against major indexes YTD, CCCC still trades on 2.3x and 2.1x PERs for FY22-23. Its 0.16x P/B has overly discounted the value of underlying assets.

Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG):  Sell Short

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • The company is overearning due to an unusual confluence of events that increased demand for and limited supply of transportation, especially intermodal, services.  
  • HUB’s sales and margins surged on a 40%+ intermodal pricing increase.  EBITDA margins increased 400bps
  • Import volumes and port congestion are falling.  Pricing is easing.  Transportation could end up in a glut quickly.   The weakening macro picture could take additional pressure off transportation demand.    

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Tianqi Lithium, Adaro Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Now, Could Be More
  • ADARO Solid 3Q 2022 : But Prefer ITMG

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Now, Could Be More

By Brian Freitas


ADARO Solid 3Q 2022 : But Prefer ITMG

By Sameer Taneja

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) showed a sequential decline in earnings owing to a 6.8% QoQ decrease in pricing as discounts for their coal continued to build Vs. Newcastle.
  • While the stock trades at a 2.8x FY22 PE and 1.3x EV-EBTIDA FY22E with a 21% dividend yield, the market is pricing in a substantial decline in coal prices.
  • Adaro offers a significant margin of safety with 25% of the market cap in cash and decent capital allocation, but we prefer ITMG for its superior grades.

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