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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Utilities: China Longyuan Power and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
  • The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
  • INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.  

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Makino Milling Machine Co, Textron Inc, United Airlines Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling
  • Textron Inc.: An Insight Into Its Sustainable Aviation
  • United Airlines: Leveraging Technological Innovation To Change The Game! – Major Drivers

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

By David Blennerhassett

Textron Inc.: An Insight Into Its Sustainable Aviation

By Baptista Research

  • Textron’s latest financial performance highlighted a mix of achievements and challenges across its diverse business segments.
  • The company’s Q4 2024 revenues were $3.6 billion, a decrease from $3.9 billion in the previous year.
  • Segment profit also saw a decline to $283 million, down $101 million from the prior year’s same quarter.

United Airlines: Leveraging Technological Innovation To Change The Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines Holdings’ latest earnings call for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 highlights a robust performance that illustrates both advancements and challenges within the company.
  • Reflecting on the year, United Airlines demonstrated strong financial outcomes primarily driven by strategic operational improvements and a favorable market environment.
  • In 2024, United Airlines achieved a record earnings per share of $10.61, surpassing the midpoint of their initial guidance.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Alcoa , Halliburton Co, Steel Dynamics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! – Major Drivers
  • Halliburton Company: International Market Growth To Reinforce Global Leadership In Oilfield Services! – Major Drivers
  • Steel Dynamics: Expanding Aluminum Operations To Act As A Formidable Player In The Aluminum Market! – Major Drivers

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alcoa Corporation’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company’s performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.
  • In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.
  • The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.

Halliburton Company: International Market Growth To Reinforce Global Leadership In Oilfield Services! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Halliburton Company’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings report presents a nuanced picture of its financial health and operational performance.
  • The company reported a total revenue of $22.9 billion for 2024, with an 8% growth in its international business, particularly driven by an 8% increase in the Middle East/Asia region.
  • Conversely, the North American segment experienced an 8% revenue decline year-over-year, reflecting broader sector trends, but still managed to outperform rig count and completion activity benchmarks.

Steel Dynamics: Expanding Aluminum Operations To Act As A Formidable Player In The Aluminum Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) navigated a challenging market environment in 2024, achieving solid financial results while continuing strategic growth initiatives.
  • The company reported second-highest annual steel shipments of 12.7 million tons, and cash from operations stood at $1.8 billion, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion.
  • Net income for 2024 was recorded at $1.5 billion, reflecting a diluted share value of $9.84, while the fourth quarter net income was $207 million, or $1.36 per diluted share.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Caci International, Amphenol Corp Cl A, Shinko Electric Industries, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
  • CACI International Inc.: Counter-UAS Systems & International Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Amphenol Corporation: Can Its Continued Expansion in Automotive Help Alter The Playing Field? – Major Drivers
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
  • The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
  • No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

CACI International Inc.: Counter-UAS Systems & International Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CACI International reported strong results for the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025, highlighted by a robust revenue growth of 14.5% and an EBITDA margin of 11.1%.
  • The company secured $1.2 billion in new business awards during the quarter and reported a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.7x, indicating a solid demand for its services.
  • This strong performance has prompted CACI to raise its full-year guidance, projecting revenue between $8.45 billion and $8.65 billion, and adjusted earnings per share ranging from $23.87 to $24.76.

Amphenol Corporation: Can Its Continued Expansion in Automotive Help Alter The Playing Field? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amphenol Corporation concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 on a strong note, reflecting robust financial performance across most of its business segments.
  • The company’s quarterly sales reached a record $4.318 billion, a 30% increase in both U.S. dollars and local currencies and a 20% organic growth compared to the same period in 2023.
  • This growth was consistent across all served markets, with the company achieving significant milestones in both quarterly and full-year metrics.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

By David Blennerhassett

  • JIC announced a “mid-February” start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)‘s Tender Offer. That’s a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
  • What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.
  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)‘s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.

By Patrick Liao

  • Taiwan experienced an earthquake on January 21st, and the tremors are still ongoing.
  • Dr. CC Wei, Chairman of TSMC, explained the establishment of over 10,000 additional Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) at the U.S. Fab.  
  • The yield at TSMC’s Arizona fab is about 4% higher than at their Tainan fab, marking a record for initial production.   

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Dongbang Medical, Shanghai Henlius Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.26) – Key Takeaways from the Failure of Henlius Privatization, TCM M&As

Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 10,500 won. The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 910 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of Dongbang Medical is target price of 13,609 won per share which is 30% higher than the IPO price of 10,500 won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.26) – Key Takeaways from the Failure of Henlius Privatization, TCM M&As

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There have been quite a few M&As in the field of TCM, with a clear trend of SOEs taking over TCM enterprises due to strategically significant and advantageous integration.
  • Whether a drug can be approved does not depend on whether it has entered Phase II/III trials. The areas with clearly unmet medical needs often indicate good investment opportunities.
  • The privatization of Henlius failed. Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was based on a deliberate decision. We are optimistic about the outlook of Henlius due to its strong fundamentals and internationalization. 

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Kalyan Jewellers, Japfa Ltd, Netflix Inc, Air China Ltd (H), Dr Horton Inc, Procter & Gamble Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory
  • Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer
  • Netflix Soars to New Heights: Breaking Down Their Massive Growth and the Challenges Ahead!
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)
  • D.R. Horton: Adaptation to Market Trends Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G): Its Efforts Towards Brand Investment & Marketing! – Major Drivers

Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory

By Nitin Mangal

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN), one of the largest Indian jewellery player, has been under the limelight for various allegations and misconducts, including possibility of inventory overstatement.
  • In this insight, we try to look at the inventory from the forensic lens and uncover the disparity in accounting.
  • We also note that operating cash flows are boosted by movement in metal loans while company also has several RPT with promoters, especially on the purchases side. 

Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
  • The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.  

Netflix Soars to New Heights: Breaking Down Their Massive Growth and the Challenges Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix Inc. continues to demonstrate strong performance in the streaming industry, underpinned by significant subscriber growth and robust financial metrics.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, Netflix reported an unprecedented net addition of 19 million subscribers, culminating in a total of 41 million new members for the year.
  • This surge not only surpassed analyst expectations but also propelled the stock to a record high of $999, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Dec & Q424 Numbers | Airlines Outperform Trip.com (January 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally
  • Gov’t estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them
  • Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed

D.R. Horton: Adaptation to Market Trends Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • D.R. Horton, Inc., “America’s Builder,” reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 with results that underscore both strengths and challenges facing the company.
  • Earnings came in at $2.61 per diluted share, a decrease from the $2.82 reported in the prior year.
  • Despite the dip, the company generated consolidated revenues of $7.6 billion with consolidated pretax income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a pretax profit margin of 14.6%.

Procter & Gamble (P&G): Its Efforts Towards Brand Investment & Marketing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble’s latest quarterly results reflect a generally steady performance amid various external challenges, delivering organic sales growth, EPS improvement, and significant cash returns to shareholders.
  • Organic sales grew by 3%, with contributions from volume and mix, while pricing remained consistent with the previous year.
  • The company’s ability to overcome a two-week outage of a global transportation management system and still support strong customer orders highlights operational resilience.

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Jan 26
0

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hyundai Motor India , Cameco Corp, Delta Electronics Thailand , Lotes Co, Tsuruha Holdings, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, MongoDB , Dongbang Medical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening
  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases
  • Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
  • Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
  • Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening

By Brian Freitas

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

By Brian Freitas

  • The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
  • The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
  • The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
  • There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

By Brian Freitas

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
  • Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table

By Travis Lundy

  • In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
  • That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
  • What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 10,500 won. The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 910 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of Dongbang Medical is target price of 13,609 won per share which is 30% higher than the IPO price of 10,500 won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 24th): Cosco Shipping and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 24th): Cosco Shipping, AIA, HSBC
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Primed for a Rally: Key Profit Targets

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 24th): Cosco Shipping, AIA, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 24th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), AIA (1299 HK), HSBC (5 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Anta (2020 HK).

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Primed for a Rally: Key Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been in a downtrend since mid July 2024. A base may be forming and the stock may begin a rally from here.
  • This insight will identify the WEEKLY profit targets for this possible rally: since the stock’s direction is unclear at the moment, strategic predictions risky, better be short-term tactical.
  • The stock currently has corrected for 2 weeks from the last close up, reaching the 50% support area, according to our Samsung Electronics quantitative LONG model.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief ESG: ETF Sale Won’t Be Concluded Soon and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • ETF Sale Won’t Be Concluded Soon, but as Long as BOJ Keeps Holding Them, the Problems Will Persist

ETF Sale Won’t Be Concluded Soon, but as Long as BOJ Keeps Holding Them, the Problems Will Persist

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since dividend income and unrealized gains on ETFs have significant impact on BOJ’s finances, the sales of ETF will be discussed, considering BOJ’s overall balance sheet and income/expenses as well.
  • There’re unexamined issues, whether the central bank’s purchase of stocks was really good thing, whether it distorted the secondary market, and whether management reforms were delayed by underpinning the stocks.
  • BOJ can move on to the issue of ETF disposition when the impact of policy rate hikes is recognized and the market stabilizes, but until then the problems will persist.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): How Companies Are Actually Spending Money on AI Now and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • How Companies Are Actually Spending Money on AI Now
  • Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.
  • Japan Strategy Week | SoftBank’s Starring Role in the Stargate Revolution
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 24/01/2025

How Companies Are Actually Spending Money on AI Now

By Odd Lots

  • AI tools are increasing in usage and transforming various industries, particularly in areas like engineering, sales, and marketing
  • Companies like ramp are leveraging AI to automate processes and improve productivity, leading to significant cost savings
  • The government and other organizations can benefit from AI tools to identify and eliminate wasteful spending and improve efficiency in procurement and operations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • DBS emphasizes TSV project as a significant initiative for GVT, showcasing its strategic importance for growth and development.
  • CGSI forecasts robust earnings for companies like Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, indicating a positive outlook for the market.
  • DBS reaffirms its positive outlook on OUE REIT, citing improved operating performance as a key factor in maintaining a ‘buy’ rating for the company.

Japan Strategy Week | SoftBank’s Starring Role in the Stargate Revolution

By Mark Chadwick

  • For the week, the Nikkei added 4.1% while the Topix gained 2.7%. Stocks were buoyed by a rebound in AI-related beneficiaries: Fujikura (22%), Softbank (+16%), and Advantest (+10%).
  • The “Magnificent Seven”  stocks have added a staggering $11 trillion in market cap since the start of 2023—an amount equivalent to two entire Japanese stock markets.
  • If investors want MORE U.S and MORE Tech exposure, Softbank has positioned itself at the front and centre of the AI revolution. 

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 24/01/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Historic permit award in Italy opens a new growth area – ADX has been offered and accepted the “d 363 C.R-.AX” permit in the Sicily Channel, offshore Italy, covering a maximum area of 346 km2.
  • ADX applied for the permit in 2018, but the moratorium on awarding new exploration blocks in Italy was only lifted last year.
  • ADX will become a licensed operator in Italy as well as Austria and Romania.

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