Smartkarma Daily Briefs

When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

By Special Situation Investments

This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.
Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.
Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

By David Blennerhassett

Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks.
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Jul) – ENN Energy, HEC Pharma, Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Zeekr

By Arun George

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), ZEEKR (ZK US).

Asset Sales, Mergers, and Regulatory Developments: Key Updates from SSI Weekly Newsletter

Next Science (NXS:AX) plans a large capital return after selling assets to Demetra Holdings, with a 13% spread to expected distribution.
Cantor Equity Partners I (CEPO) merges with BSTR, becoming a major Bitcoin treasury, exiting with a 17% gain.
Banxa’s (BNXA:V) spread widens to 30% amid shareholder sales and pending acquisition by OSL Group, with Genius Act tailwinds.

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Jul 21

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
Formosa Prosonic: (FOR MK) : Margin of Safety Is Very High – Trades Below Cash
Asian Terminals (ATI PM)
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup.
Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update
Tokai Carbon (5301.T) – Portfolio Shift Underway; Margin Recovery Key to Re-Rating
Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Vs. Region Group (RGN AU): Aussie REIT Spread Trade Looks Ripe
Resonac Holdings (TSE: 4004) – Strategic Pivot Toward Semiconductor Materials
JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation
Regis Resources Ltd – The Monday Report – 21 July 2025

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Formosa Prosonic: (FOR MK) : Margin of Safety Is Very High – Trades Below Cash

By Punit Khanna

Formosa Prosonic is a very cheap stock. Cash on its Balance Sheet is MYR 1.65 which is way higher than stock price.
Operating business has been consistently profitable & generated very good ROE & is available for free.
Stock has been falling as Wistron the largest shareholder has decided to exit its holding as part of strategic overview which we think is a Buying opportunity

Asian Terminals (ATI PM)

By Michael Fritzell

Asian Terminals (ATI PM — US$941 million) is a Philippines-based port operator.
It’s owned by Eusebio (“Yosi”) Tanco, recently famous for having hit a jackpot with online bingo operator DigiPlus and school operator STI Education.
Asian Terminals has also done exceptionally well. It was set up in the 1980s and managed to acquire the Manila South Harbor port in the early 1990s.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup.

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Three Aussie pair trade opportunities across three sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government’s stablecoin initiative.
At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-Guotai Junan International (1788 HK). The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.
It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent.

Tokai Carbon (5301.T) – Portfolio Shift Underway; Margin Recovery Key to Re-Rating

By Rahul Jain

Revenue peaked in FY23 but margins have declined due to cost pressures and impairments.
The company is exiting underperforming assets and expanding in fine carbon, furnaces, and carbon black.
At ¥1,010, it trades at ~19.6x FY25e P/E, in line with peers but below book at 0.8x P/B.

Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Vs. Region Group (RGN AU): Aussie REIT Spread Trade Looks Ripe

Context: The Region (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: The pair shows strong alignment in both statistical terms and fundamental metrics and factors.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Resonac Holdings (TSE: 4004) – Strategic Pivot Toward Semiconductor Materials

By Rahul Jain

Past Performance: Revenues stable; margins improved due to semiconductor growth, despite weak performance in legacy chemicals and graphite electrodes.
Strategy & Shutdown: Shutting 30% electrode capacity; refocusing on high-margin semiconductor, SiC, and packaging materials with ¥330 bn capex planned by FY25.
Valuation: Trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E FY25E; re-rating possible with higher margins and semiconductor mix.

JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.

Regis Resources Ltd – The Monday Report – 21 July 2025

By FNArena

Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

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Jul 21

Daily Brief Macro: Political Pressure Steadily Mounting on the Fed as New Game of Chicken Emerges and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Political Pressure Steadily Mounting on the Fed as New Game of Chicken Emerges
The Dog That Didn’t Bark
The Trade War Is Dead! Long Live the Trade War!
Bullish Copper: Comex-LME Spreads Off The Charts + Positive China TSF Data

Political Pressure Steadily Mounting on the Fed as New Game of Chicken Emerges

By Said Desaque

The search for candidates to replace Chairman Powell is rumoured to be underway, while political attacks have become broader, including large financial losses being incurred by the Fed.
US equities are playing a game of chicken with President Trump, believing that threatened tariff increases will not be implemented. Total consumer spending impacted by higher tariffs is relatively small.
Hitherto, in contrast to predictions, there is scant evidence of tariffs significantly impacting import prices or consumer prices to the potential detriment of Chairman Powell’s credibility.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

By Cam Hui

We call the stock market recovery off the April panic bottom as a “the dog that didn’t bark” market as there are few signs of speculative excess.
Technical indicators are also supportive of higher prices in the short run
The main risk to the bull is an unwelcome rise in inflation expectations, which could rattle the bond market as well as stock prices.

The Trade War Is Dead! Long Live the Trade War!

By Cam Hui

Despite all of the dire headlines about tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union, the only trade war that matters is effectively over. China has won.
In the short run, economic policy uncertainty is receding but it’s not fully normalized. It’s time to adopt a risk-on posture.
In the long run, equity investors should not expect the S&P 500, which trades at forward P/E of 22, to continue to outperform global stocks in the next expansion cycle.

Bullish Copper: Comex-LME Spreads Off The Charts + Positive China TSF Data

By Sameer Taneja

In our previous insight, Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton, we highlighted upside risk to the LME price.
Comex-LME spreads remain elevated at $ 2,500/ton levels, reflecting the impact of tariffs that haven’t yet been imposed, amid ongoing supply disruptions. Inventories, though, have stopped depleting on the LME.
We remain bullish on copper in the countdown to August 1st, where it is likely that tariffs of 50% are imposed on copper.

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Jul 21

Daily Brief Financials: Kakaopay , Bright Smart Securities, Hub24 Ltd, Waypoint REIT, Netwealth Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle
Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup.
Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Vs. Region Group (RGN AU): Aussie REIT Spread Trade Looks Ripe
Netwealth (NWL AU) Vs. Hub24 (HUB AU): Can Netwealth Catch Up to Hub24’s Momentum?

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.
Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.
Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government’s stablecoin initiative.
At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-Guotai Junan International (1788 HK). The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.
It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup.

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Three Aussie pair trade opportunities across three sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Vs. Region Group (RGN AU): Aussie REIT Spread Trade Looks Ripe

Context: The Region (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: The pair shows strong alignment in both statistical terms and fundamental metrics and factors.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Netwealth (NWL AU) Vs. Hub24 (HUB AU): Can Netwealth Catch Up to Hub24’s Momentum?

Context: The Netwealth (NWL AU) vs. Hub24 (HUB AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: The two companies share very similar business models and target markets. While they are closely correlated, their current price momentum is a factor when considering relative value trades.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

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Jul 21

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Pop Mart International Group L, Dickson Concepts Intl, Formosa Prosonic Inds, 52TOYS Development, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks
Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails
Formosa Prosonic: (FOR MK) : Margin of Safety Is Very High – Trades Below Cash
Pre-IPO 52TOYS Development – The Business Model and the Concerns Behind
Rather than “Technical Guidance,” What Is Needed Is Thorough Fiduciary Duty to Shareholders

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

By David Blennerhassett

Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks.
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.

Formosa Prosonic: (FOR MK) : Margin of Safety Is Very High – Trades Below Cash

By Punit Khanna

Formosa Prosonic is a very cheap stock. Cash on its Balance Sheet is MYR 1.65 which is way higher than stock price.
Operating business has been consistently profitable & generated very good ROE & is available for free.
Stock has been falling as Wistron the largest shareholder has decided to exit its holding as part of strategic overview which we think is a Buying opportunity

Pre-IPO 52TOYS Development – The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

For IP toy, the ability to provide a variety of categories is valuable,which means brands have access to diverse/creative designs/production based on IP characteristics, highlighting/interpreting the core of each IP.
Driven by top-tier licensed IPs, 52TOYS achieved solid growth, but its revenue scale/profit margin are inferior to peers. Due to intense competition, 52TOYS’s market share may be further squeezed.
The post-money valuation after Series C+ Financing is RMB4.27 billion. Based on the analysis, we think valuation of 52TOYS should be lower than Pop Mart (9992 HK), Bloks (325 HK).

Rather than “Technical Guidance,” What Is Needed Is Thorough Fiduciary Duty to Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

While very few companies allocate cash appropriately, many companies simply announce small-scale share buybacks, resulting in cash being used in a half-hearted manner for both growth and shareholder returns.
The problem is that many managers lack awareness of their fiduciary responsibility to make sincere decisions on cash allocation based on the idea that free cash flow belongs to shareholders.
Even for listed companies, the time has come to discuss the role of managers who are unable to thoroughly fulfill their fiduciary duties to shareholders.

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Jul 21

Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Dickson Concepts Intl, SK Hynix, BYD, Pop Mart International Group L, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Seven & I Holdings, Max Healthcare Institute, Reece Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks
Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion
Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

By Travis Lundy

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

By Arun George

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.

Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion

The recent placement and price surge in Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) could result in the stock being added to a global index in August.
Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm has outperformed its peers as the entire industry has been trading well. There is a small increase in short interest in the stock.
Positioning has increased steadily over the last month. Momentum in the stock and its peers could lead to further upside before profit taking kicks in.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson

By David Blennerhassett

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&i’s Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) should replace Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) in the NIFTY Index in September.
The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
While there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN), there could be more room to run in the stock.

Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears