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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pointerra Ltd – Best ever quarter, Q2 outperforms forecasts


Pointerra Ltd – Best ever quarter, Q2 outperforms forecasts

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the release of the company’s best ever quarterly results, from a cash receipts, operating cashflow and organic cash growth perspective.
  • Q2 FY25 cash receipts of $4.24m were up 219% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 38% against Q1 FY25.
  • Operating cash inflow for Q2 was $1.45m, a $2.89m turnaround on the operating cash flow reported in Q2 FY24 and a 367% improvement on Q1 FY25.

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Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc, Posco DX, T’Way Air, Hana Micron Inc, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
  • KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
  • A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
  • Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Heavy Call Volume on Thursday’s Gain.


SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
  • SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
  • The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
  • Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
  • Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

  • An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
  • Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
  • From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.

Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron

By Douglas Kim

  • Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS) announced its plan to split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron (a newly established company).
  • Existing shareholders will receive shares of the two companies in equal proportions according to the split ratio which is 32.5% for Hana Semiconductor Holdings and 67.5% for Hana Micron.
  • We remain negative on Hana Micron. The valuation of the company remains stretched. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the company’s new plan to split into two different companies.

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Heavy Call Volume on Thursday’s Gain.

By John Ley

  • Kospi rebounds from weak performance at the start the week to finish essentially unchanged.
  • 1M implied vol came off 2.3 points and is now at the 22nd percentile over the past year.
  • Thursday’s 1.44% gain saw overwhelming Call activity with 3.6 Calls trading for every Put.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Keppel Corp, Sabana Industrial REIT, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Rex International Holding, SGX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager
  • REIT Watch – 24 S-REITs confirm schedule for upcoming earnings season
  • Gloves Power Sri Lankan Rubber Products Export Growth
  • GKE Leads Actives in Early 2025, followed by Rex & Grand Venture Technology
  • Centurion joint chairman David Loh raises his stake in the group


Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager

By Tan Yee Peng

  • Keppel’s Vision 2030, announced in May 2020, envisages that it would become a global asset manager and operator, with Funds Under Management (“FUM”) of S$200bn.
  • In this report we are focusing on Keppel’s private funds, which account for 70% of its current FUM.
  • Based on Keppel’s publicly released materials, Keppel’s strategy to reach their goal is separated into 3 key components.

REIT Watch – 24 S-REITs confirm schedule for upcoming earnings season

By Geoff Howie

  • Schedule of S-REITs Earnings or Business Updates Mapletree Logistics Trust 21-Jan After market Financial Results Keppel REIT 27-Jan After market Financial Results 28-Jan Before market Business Update.

Gloves Power Sri Lankan Rubber Products Export Growth

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Exports go up in Oct but slips in Nov over dismal tire show
  • EDB focuses on auto component exports strengthening
  • Exporters, manufacturers visit Thailand for updates and avenues

GKE Leads Actives in Early 2025, followed by Rex & Grand Venture Technology

By Geoff Howie

  • Multinational oil exploration and production company Rex International and precision engineering firm Grand Venture Technology have posted the next highest gains.
  • Rex International recorded the highest net institutional inflow relative to market cap over the past 12 sessions, followed by Seatrium, Suntec REIT, LHN, and OKH Global.
  • UtdHampsh Reit USD 0.27 -0.2 379 0.94 0.2% 7 MAINBOARD REITs.

Centurion joint chairman David Loh raises his stake in the group

By Geoff Howie

  • Over the five trading sessions from Jan 10 to Jan 16, institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, leading to net institutional outflow of S$184 million, reversing the S$103 million net inflow over the preceding five sessions.
  • Stocks that led the net institutional outflow over the five sessions through to Jan 16 were DBS Group Holdings, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Singapore Airlines, Singapore Exchange, Genting Singapore, Venture Corporation, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, Hongkong Land Holdings, Centurion Corporation, and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT.
  • Between Jan 14 and 15, Centurion Corporation Executive Director and Joint Chairman David Loh Kim Kang acquired 10 million shares in two married deals, at S$0.935 per share.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Ultrajaya Milk, Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children
  • Criterium Energy Ltd: Onshore Gas Development Takes Centre Stage with Potentially Much Lower Capex


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia’s leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
  • The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.
  • Ultrajaya‘s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 

Criterium Energy Ltd: Onshore Gas Development Takes Centre Stage with Potentially Much Lower Capex

By Auctus Advisors

  • 4Q24 production was 957 bbld (880 bbl/d in 3Q24).
  • January’s production so far is 1,020 bbl/d.
  • This excludes the impact of the last four workovers of the 2024 programme.

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Daily Brief United States: Astera Labs , Natural Gas, Sonos Inc, Wells Fargo & Co, Gold, Crude Oil, Logan Ridge Finance , Royal Bank Of Canada and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.
  • Global Commodities: A Bitter Cold US Natural Gas Market Ramps up LNG Supply
  • Sonos’ $500 Million Crisis: Why The CEO Had To Go!
  • Wells Fargo’s Epic Tech-Driven Revolution: The Surprising Power Move to Slash Costs & Dominate Markets! – Major Drivers
  • The Investmentcase for Gold
  • U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021
  • Logan Ridge Finance Corp (LRFC) – Sunday, Oct 20, 2024
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Capital Markets Pipeline & Growth Trends Fueling Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers


Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) is expected to migrate from Small-cap to Standard at the February 2025 review as its price has soared ~100% since the last review.
  • The security’s free float is forecasted to increase from 25% to 70% at the May 2025 review due to lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders. Passive fund demand expected is ~$570m.
  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) can migrate from small-cap to all-world in September 2025 with a slight price increase. Probability of migration in March 2025 is small.

Global Commodities: A Bitter Cold US Natural Gas Market Ramps up LNG Supply

By At Any Rate

  • US natural gas market experiencing significant weather-related demand in January, with colder than 10-year normal temperatures
  • Europe facing tight gas market balances and lower storage levels, requiring increased LNG imports to reach storage targets
  • Uncertainty around Russian pipeline gas increases to Europe and potential impact of US sanctions on Russian energy sectors present bearish risk factors for gas prices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Sonos’ $500 Million Crisis: Why The CEO Had To Go!

By Baptista Research

  • Sonos, a renowned name in the premium audio industry, has recently faced one of its most challenging years.
  • The company, known for its seamless blend of hardware and software, suffered a significant setback due to a disastrous app update that disrupted the user experience for millions.
  • Released in May 2024, the redesigned app, meant to accelerate innovation, instead turned functional speakers into non-operational devices.

Wells Fargo’s Epic Tech-Driven Revolution: The Surprising Power Move to Slash Costs & Dominate Markets! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wells Fargo & Company demonstrated notable progress in its fourth quarter of 2024, underscoring a year marked by strengthening earnings profiles and risk control achievements.
  • The firm showed both strategic resilience and adaptation in meeting its diverse operational objectives amid evolving market conditions.
  • Looking at the positives, Wells Fargo expanded its net income and fee-based revenue, achieving an 11% rise in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous year.

The Investmentcase for Gold

By The Commodity Report

  • The Investmentcase for Gold Some time has passed since I wrote the last time about gold.
  • Currently, a situation is developing that could become interesting for investors in the shiny metal.
  • While till this day many market experts have the opinion that the gold price is highly correlated to the US-Dollar as well as the relative trajectory of where yields are headed, I think that gold is primarily driven by liquidity conditions.

U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

By Suhas Reddy

  • The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.
  • For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.

Logan Ridge Finance Corp (LRFC) – Sunday, Oct 20, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • LRFC recently sold a large equity investment, leading to higher cash dividends, increased stock price, reduced equity exposure, and a possible takeover announcement
  • Positive financial implications of asset sale not yet reflected in SEC filings and data sources
  • Investors anticipate dividend increase and increased awareness of LRFC’s situation with upcoming earnings release in early November, making it a standout in the BDC space for its unique assets and growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Capital Markets Pipeline & Growth Trends Fueling Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) demonstrated robust performance in its 2024 fourth-quarter results, revealing both strengths and potential challenges in its operational and financial outcomes.
  • The bank’s reported earnings stood at $4.2 billion, which includes $265 million from its acquisition of HSBC Canada.
  • Adjusted earnings showed an 18% year-over-year increase to $4.4 billion, driven largely by market appreciation and strong client activities.

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Daily Brief India: Zomato, Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
  • Yatharth Hospital: Decoding Disclosure Lapses & Red Flags


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

Yatharth Hospital: Decoding Disclosure Lapses & Red Flags

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services (YATHARTH IN) successfully completed a QIP, raising Rs. 625 crore which was followed by the stock falling by nearly 26% in the following month.
  • The company and its subsidiaries has recently been facing a significant challenge with an investigation by the Income Tax Department and the attachment of company assets.
  • The document released on December 17, 2024 has confirmed the search and seizure operations conducted on October 19, 2023, targeting Yatharth and two of its subsidiaries.

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Daily Brief Japan: Timee Inc, JPY, Sysmex Corp, Nintendo, Japan System Techniques Co, LIFULL, Nikkei 225, Daiichi Sankyo, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), Paycloud Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
  • Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting inauguration
  • Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Expansion Plans In Brazil Looks Prospective, Yet Gets Tricky With Margins
  • Gaming Consoles Part 3: Nintendo – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]
  • Japan System Techniques (4323 JP ) – Valuations Continue to Expand…
  • Lifull (2120 Jp ) – Strategically Transforming the Overseas Segment to Focus on HOME’S Services
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 14 – 17): Volatility Needs a Break from the Range
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): US Approval for Second ADC Drug to Drive Accelerated Growth
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Capital Strength & Liquidity Make It a Market Powerhouse!
  • Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP) – A High-Growth Retail Marketing Platform Operator


Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting inauguration

By At Any Rate

  • Discussion on potential tariffs and their impact on global markets, with a focus on Canada, China, and Mexico
  • Analysis of the upcoming BOJ meeting and its potential impact on the Japanese yen
  • Update on UK’s economic challenges, including concerns about fiscal math and potential trade war implications

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Expansion Plans In Brazil Looks Prospective, Yet Gets Tricky With Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sysmex America, Inc., a subsidiary of Sysmex Corp, recently announced plans to build a new reagent manufacturing, distribution, and service center in Brazil.
  • In FY24, sales in the Americas region for Sysmex increased 12% YoY to ¥118.7B. Reagents drove the revenue growing 16%.
  • Operating margins in the Americas have largely trodden on a volatile trajectory over the last few years hovering in the range of 4-6%, lowest among all the geographies.

Gaming Consoles Part 3: Nintendo – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Finley translates unstructured credit agreements into code to streamline credit management processes
  • Borrowers like RAMP and ANOVA rely on Finley for tracking and automation of reporting requirements
  • Lenders like Trinity Capital Valley bank use Finley as a command center for debt capital data and analysis across transactions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Japan System Techniques (4323 JP ) – Valuations Continue to Expand…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its H1 Key consolidated figures net sales of JPY 13,260 mn (+9.3% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,045 mn (+4.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,077 mn (+6.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners o  parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 671 mn (+3.2% YoY).
  • Higher sales and profits in the DX&SI business and Package business contributed in H1 earnings growth.
  • For FY2025/3, the Company forecasts: net sales of JPY 28,570 mn (+9.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,150 mn (+12.9% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,200 mn (+11.8% YoY), and net profit of JPY 2,300 mn (+10.2%).

Lifull (2120 Jp ) – Strategically Transforming the Overseas Segment to Focus on HOME’S Services

By Sessa Investment Research

  • LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) operates one of Japan’s largest real estate and housing information sites, LIFULL HOME’S, which works with real estate companies across Japan to provide listings for rental and for-sale properties.
  • Emphasizing a user-first approach, it not only offers property information but also supports users’ decision making through features such as information on living conditions by area, user reviews, and AI-driven recommendations.
  • Beyond real estate, the Company has expanded into new businesses, including LIFULL Kaigo, a matching platform for senior living facilities, and LIFULL Regional Revitalization, to meet a broad range of user needs.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 14 – 17): Volatility Needs a Break from the Range

By John Ley

  • Nikkei has spent 55 trading days with 1M historic vol less than 1M implied vol, averaging about 4 points less.
  • The trading range since October looks similar to the trading range the market went through from May to July with similar volatility characteristics. 
  • Big move on Monday didn’t spark volatility with market settling into a very narrow range to finish the week down 1.89%.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): US Approval for Second ADC Drug to Drive Accelerated Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) has received FDA approval for Datroway for the second-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer.
  • Last month, Datroway got approval in Japan. Regulatory submissions for the drug are under review in the EU, China, and other regions. The drug is undergoing trial for other indications.
  • AstraZeneca’s proven commercialization capability for Enhertu enhances conviction on the commercialization prospect of Datroway too. AstraZeneca pegged peak year revenue of Datroway at more than $5B (similar level to Enhertu).

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Capital Strength & Liquidity Make It a Market Powerhouse!

By Baptista Research

  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, MUFG, reported a record-high net profit of JPY 1,258.1 billion for the first half of FY 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year.
  • This achievement represents an 83% progression towards its FY 2024 profit target of JPY 1.5 trillion.
  • The positive financial results were largely attributable to increased profitability in customer segments and substantial net gains from the sale of equity holdings.

Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP) – A High-Growth Retail Marketing Platform Operator

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Paycloud Holdings Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) primarily serves major retail and restaurant chains, as well as consumer-related businesses, through its three main businesses: 1) cashless service, 2) digital signage-related, and 3) IT solutions.
  • By integrating DX solutions across these three businesses, the Company pursues a retail marketing platform strategy focused on supporting to strengthen consumer touchpoints both inside and outside of retail stores.
  • It is establishing itself as a leading domestic player with its Dokuji Pay (branded currency payment + marketing) service, where clients act as issuers, and delivering end-to-end digital signage-related solutions.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hang Seng Index, China Vanke and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
  • CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. 
  • China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.
  • Instead of betting on privatization again, it’s better to focus more on whether China TCM’s fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.

By John Ley

  • Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
  • Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels. 
  • Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

By John Ley

  • Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.
  • Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  
  • Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
  • In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
  • Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.

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Most Read: Shift Inc, ZTO Express Cayman , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, J&T Global Express , Indian Hotels, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz, SK Inc, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Timee Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add
  • ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
  • GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down
  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up
  • GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
  • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer
  • SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked


SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add

By Travis Lundy

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
  • Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
  • There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
  • ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
  • The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says “Reject”. But Mengniu Selling Down

By David Blennerhassett

  • Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
  • But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
  • Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas


GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
  • The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
  • Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
  • City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
  • Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
  • SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
  • The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Timee Inc, T’Way Air, Keppel Corp, Ebusco Holding NV, Paycloud Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
  • A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
  • Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager
  • CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 20 January (KPN | InPost | Ebusco | PostNL)
  • Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP) – A High-Growth Retail Marketing Platform Operator


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

  • An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
  • Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
  • From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.

Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager

By Tan Yee Peng

  • Keppel’s Vision 2030, announced in May 2020, envisages that it would become a global asset manager and operator, with Funds Under Management (“FUM”) of S$200bn.
  • In this report we are focusing on Keppel’s private funds, which account for 70% of its current FUM.
  • Based on Keppel’s publicly released materials, Keppel’s strategy to reach their goal is separated into 3 key components.

CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 20 January (KPN | InPost | Ebusco | PostNL)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • KPN | ACM: stricter supervision on information obligations for telecom companies • InPost | plans to invest GBP 600m in the UK between 2025 and 2029 • Ebusco | auctioning part of its inventory • PostNL | FY24 result falls short of guidance; mainly because of Mail

Paycloud Holdings (4015 JP) – A High-Growth Retail Marketing Platform Operator

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Paycloud Holdings Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) primarily serves major retail and restaurant chains, as well as consumer-related businesses, through its three main businesses: 1) cashless service, 2) digital signage-related, and 3) IT solutions.
  • By integrating DX solutions across these three businesses, the Company pursues a retail marketing platform strategy focused on supporting to strengthen consumer touchpoints both inside and outside of retail stores.
  • It is establishing itself as a leading domestic player with its Dokuji Pay (branded currency payment + marketing) service, where clients act as issuers, and delivering end-to-end digital signage-related solutions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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