Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): MedTech Targeting the Spine Sets Terms for IPO

Carlsmed is offering 6.7mm shares at $14.00-$16.00 equating to a market cap of $371m-$424m and is scheduled to debut on July 23rd
B Capital Group and U.S. Venture Partners have indicated an interest in purchasing up to approximately $20 million and $11 million, respectively.
MedTech companies like CarlsMed are easy to digest for IPO investors as the company typically sees sales in a strong trajectory going into the IPO.

Treasure Chest: CSL Not A One-Trick Pony

By FNArena

FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
Today’s idea is on CSL

Dong A St (170900 KS): Five Reasons Why Performance Improvement Is Expected

By Tina Banerjee

Dong A St (170900 KS) 1Q25 revenue rose 21% YoY, which is a significant improvement as the company recorded just 6% YoY growth in revenue in 2024.
Existing operation of Dong A St is showing strength. Stelara biosimilar to generate sales royalties from this year. Cenobamate launch is expected by next year.
Pipeline is promising, with upcoming data readouts expected through 2026. Obesity drug candidate has best-in-class potential.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Industrials: SM Investments, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Sumitomo Corp, Smiths, EJ Holdings Inc, Tomra Systems, Wilh Wilhelmsen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest
Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality
Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update
EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
TOMRA Systems: Initiation of Coverage- Is The Growth In The Recycling Here To Stay?
Wallenius Wilhelmsen – Can Tariff Turbulence Derail This Shipping Giant?

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

An undisclosed seller is looking to raise US$142m via selling some/all of their stake in SM Investments (SM PM).
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 33.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 0.7% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

By Rahul Jain

Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.
Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.
Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update

By Upslope Capital Management

Q2 saw markets whipsawed in an unprecedentedly deliberate fashion. Markets got slammed when aggressive tariffs were announced.
They quickly rebounded when relief extensions were granted and “deals” announced. Then they rebounded some more.
Where does that leave us? No one believes harsh tariffs will be widely implemented. This (lack of tariffs) is a good thing, and it is well reflected in markets and valuations. But markets are now extremely frothy.

EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In FY05/25, E-J Holdings reported revenue of JPY42.7bn, operating profit of JPY4.5bn, and net income of JPY3.2bn.
For FY05/26, E-J Holdings forecasts revenue of JPY47.0bn, operating profit of JPY5.0bn, and net income of JPY3.4bn.
E-J Holdings formulated E-J-Vision2030 and E-J-Plan2027 to enhance business foundation and corporate value.

TOMRA Systems: Initiation of Coverage- Is The Growth In The Recycling Here To Stay?

Tomra Systems ASA has reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showing a performance that aligns closely with expectations both in revenue and profit terms.
The company, which operates mainly in the Collection, Recycling, and Food sectors, delivered a total revenue of EUR 306 million for the quarter, a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
The Food sector was particularly strong, benefiting from a successful turnaround that led to record EBITA and double-digit growth in both revenues and order intake.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen – Can Tariff Turbulence Derail This Shipping Giant?

Wallenius Wilhelmsen has reported solid performance for the first quarter of 2023, despite facing significant market uncertainties primarily driven by U.S. tariffs and changing regulatory environments.
The company posted a robust adjusted EBITDA of $462 million, up 5% from the same quarter last year, indicating stable performance in its core segments.
A notable event during the quarter was the completion of the MIRRAT transaction, marking Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s withdrawal from operations in Australia, with the proceeds already accounted for.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Financials: Nikkei 225, LIC Housing Finance, Champion REIT, Accelerant Holdings, Samara Asset Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO
Samara Asset Group – Q1 2025 Portfolio and NAV Development

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
The index’s latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model’s Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).

The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.
The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).
It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK

By Jacob Cheng

The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman. Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO

Accelerant Holdings is offering 28.947mm shares at $18.00-$20.00 equating to a market cap of $4.0b-$4.4b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
As of June 30, 2025 they have 248 Members as compared to 186 Members as of June 30, 2024 (and 232 Members as of March 31, 2025).
Given the positive tailwind from recent insurance-related IPOs as well as the strong metrics released in the company’s “flash numbers”, we believe this company could potentially be “well-received”.

Samara Asset Group – Q1 2025 Portfolio and NAV Development

By GBC AG

During the first quarter of 2025, Samara Asset Group experienced a decline in net asset value, driven largely by volatility in its principal assets.
As of March 31, gross asset value stood at approximately 255.3 million euros, while net asset value settled at around 210.9 million euros.
This marks a reduction from year-end levels of 297.4 million euros for gross assets and 245.2 million euros for net assets.

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Jul 16

Most Read: Perenti Global, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, DD Group, Amman Mineral Internasional, SM Investments, GMO Internet, ZEEKR, Ansys Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)
GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest
StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
US Inflation Creeps In Quietly
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)

By Brian Freitas

There will be an ad hoc inclusion for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 22 July following Spartan Resources (SPR AU)‘s acquisition by Ramelius Resources (RMS AU).
There are a couple of stocks that are trading neck and neck on average free float market cap and one of them is likely to be added to the index.
Both stocks have seen a big increase in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks, indicative of positioning in the stock.

GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL

By Travis Lundy

GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed.
The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.

[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group.
The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look.
But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business.

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way

By Travis Lundy

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index.
That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

An undisclosed seller is looking to raise US$142m via selling some/all of their stake in SM Investments (SM PM).
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 33.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 0.7% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

US Inflation Creeps In Quietly

By Phil Rush

Rebounding headline and core US inflation in June understated the underlying growth, with shelter rising at its slowest pace since August 2021. Tariff pain crept in belatedly.
Commodities, less food, energy and car prices grew by 0.3% m-o-m, the fastest since Feb-23, and services (ex-shelter) hit 0.4% m-o-m, both inconsistent with the target.
Less than half of the post-election surge in expectations has survived so far. Further rises remain likely, even if sustained avoidance smooths and reduces the full impact.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%.
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.
The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium.

Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered

By Harry Kalfas

The merger between Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US) marks a major industry milestone, having overcome extended regulatory hurdles, including a delayed approval from Chinese authorities.
Ansys Inc (ANSS US) shareholders will receive $197 cash plus 0.3450 Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) shares per Ansys Inc (ANSS US) share, valuing the deal at about $35 billion.
The merger is expected to significantly impact major U.S. indexes, triggering intra-quarter replacements and substantial passive fund flows.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Consumer: JNBY Design Ltd, GMO Internet, ZEEKR, Ola Electric, Performance Food Group Co, oOh!Media Ltd, Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A, Heineken Holding NV, IDOM Inc, IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches
StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential
Performance Food Group on the Verge of a Mega Deal: 4 Reasons US Foods Can’t Walk Away!
oOh!Media Ltd – The Overnight Report: Long-End Yields Rising
Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility
Heineken: Initiation of Coverage- An Insight Into Its Global Market Position & Portfolio Strategy!
IDOM Inc (7599 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches

By Sameer Taneja

The August 1st deadline is approaching, and it seems a bit unclear whether a deal with Vietnam has been reached on a 20% tariff or something lower.
With no formal agreement and just Trump’s Truth Social account as a reference, uncertainty looms. For HK-listed companies, the understanding is that they will pass on tariffs to their customers.
We summarize this in our call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) following the results. We also provide updates for Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) and other names.

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%.
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.
The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium.

Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential

By Nimish Maheshwari

Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.

Performance Food Group on the Verge of a Mega Deal: 4 Reasons US Foods Can’t Walk Away!

Performance Food Group (PFG) has surged to the top of Wall Street chatter following reports that US Foods Holding Corp. is evaluating a potential acquisition of the company.
According to people familiar with the matter, US Foods has expressed interest in merging with PFG in what would be a transformative deal for the food distribution industry.
If completed, the combined entity would eclipse Sysco to become the largest foodservice distributor in the United States, commanding an estimated 18% market share of a $371 billion industry.

oOh!Media Ltd – The Overnight Report: Long-End Yields Rising

By FNArena

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility

By Sumeet Singh

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH), a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Heineken: Initiation of Coverage- An Insight Into Its Global Market Position & Portfolio Strategy!

Heineken N.V. has reported its financial and operational performance for the full year 2024, showcasing a mix of growth, challenges, and strategic initiatives.
The company has made significant strides in executing its multiyear strategy known as EverGreen.
This strategy aims to achieve balanced growth, improve profitability, and create long-term value.

IDOM Inc (7599 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

By Shared Research

IDOM’s Q1 FY02/26 sales reached JPY138.5bn (+11.2% YoY), with record-high retail units sold despite declining auction prices.
Operating profit decreased to JPY3.9bn (-12.3% YoY), with SG&A expenses rising due to new store openings and increased personnel costs.
Domestic directly managed stores sold 83,714 units (+2.1% YoY), with retail sales up 12.9% YoY and wholesale sales down 7.6% YoY.

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.
We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Mixed as Inflation Pressures Mount and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Mixed as Inflation Pressures Mount, Bank Earnings Disappoint
Japan Morning Connection: Only Tech in the Green After Dovish Stance Against AI Chips to China
Cooling Inflation Opens the Door: Is RBI Ready to Cut Rates Further?

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Mixed as Inflation Pressures Mount, Bank Earnings Disappoint

By Mark Chadwick

The Nasdaq rose 0.18% to a new high, supported by a 4% gain in Nvidia following optimism over resuming GPU sales to China.
Treasury yields climbed, with 30-year yields reaching 5% and breakeven rates at 20-week highs; yesterday, 10-year JGB yield rose above 1.59%, highest since 2008.
Nissan Motor will discontinue production at its Oppama Plant in Yokosuka

Japan Morning Connection: Only Tech in the Green After Dovish Stance Against AI Chips to China

By Andrew Jackson

NVDA and AMD saving the market after weak banks earnings set a sour tone.
Chips news a big win for demand for Samsung memory which should play well for Micronics.
Apple cutting a manufacturing deal with MP Materials reiterates importance of rare earths access.

Cooling Inflation Opens the Door: Is RBI Ready to Cut Rates Further?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

India’s June CPI inflation fell to 2.1%, well below forecasts, driven by easing food prices and stable core inflation components.
Real interest rates have widened, creating clear space for RBI to ease policy, though upside risks may delay immediate action.
A gradual rate cut cycle appears likely in H2 FY26, contingent on sustained disinflation, global cues, and stable core pressures.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief ECM: SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO
Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): MedTech Targeting the Spine Sets Terms for IPO
Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility
Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

An undisclosed seller is looking to raise US$142m via selling some/all of their stake in SM Investments (SM PM).
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 33.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 0.7% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO

Accelerant Holdings is offering 28.947mm shares at $18.00-$20.00 equating to a market cap of $4.0b-$4.4b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
As of June 30, 2025 they have 248 Members as compared to 186 Members as of June 30, 2024 (and 232 Members as of March 31, 2025).
Given the positive tailwind from recent insurance-related IPOs as well as the strong metrics released in the company’s “flash numbers”, we believe this company could potentially be “well-received”.

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): MedTech Targeting the Spine Sets Terms for IPO

Carlsmed is offering 6.7mm shares at $14.00-$16.00 equating to a market cap of $371m-$424m and is scheduled to debut on July 23rd
B Capital Group and U.S. Venture Partners have indicated an interest in purchasing up to approximately $20 million and $11 million, respectively.
MedTech companies like CarlsMed are easy to digest for IPO investors as the company typically sees sales in a strong trajectory going into the IPO.

Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility

By Sumeet Singh

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH), a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited (0198068D IN) (EPPL) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, IIFL, Jefferies, Kotak.
EPPL is an integrated solar PV module and cell manufacturer offering advanced technologies like TOPCon and Mono PERC.
According to the CRISIL Report, as on Mar 25, EPPL was the second largest pure-play integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) module and solar cell manufacturer in India by production capacity.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Absent Borrow and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report
Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%.
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.
The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium.

New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms

Writing reports on copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU) is tricky as they have a half-life of days, sometimes hours, as Kinterra and Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) compete head-to-head.
Last week, Kinterra bumped its off-market Offer to A$0.063/share; which increases to A$0.064/share if it gets to 30%. CAML, currently at A$0.062/share, has matching rights up until the 17th July.
The Takeovers Panel has now, not altogether unsurprisingly, opted not to declare unacceptable circumstances regarding Kinterra’s two applications.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer

Back on the 13th June, dual-listed silver play Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN),with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a
Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie-listed line. And a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
As Adriatic is incorporated in the UK, the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August.

Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE

By Douglas Kim

According to the local media, Netmarble is considering on issuing exchangeable bonds (EB) worth about 250 billion won backed by its stake in HYBE.
The potential EB issue is likely to be slightly positive on Netmarble and slightly negative on HYBE (mainly due to additional shares that could be sold in the market).
We are Negative on BOTH Netmarble and HYBE. Their valuations are not attractive. Plus, HYBE could face a major negative issue of its founder Bang Si-hyuk who could be jailed.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.

Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

By Sanghyun Park

This is MoEF’s first gov-led tax reform—not lawmaker-initiated—and unlike April’s DP bill, it carries broader scope and priority fast-track status, boosting passage odds.
Local chatter says MoEF is eyeing end-July to table its tax reform bill — that’s the base case making the rounds on the tape today.
Gov may go full-scope: 9–25% div tax on all firms plus tax credits. Traders are now rotating into high forward-yield names ahead of MoEF’s late-July package.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yanlord Land, China Vanke
The UST curve bear-steepened marginally yesterday, in line with a steepening in the JGB curve and amid an absence of macro news. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.90%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.44%.
Equities shrugged off earlier losses to end the day marginally higher, after US President Donald Trump told reporters there could be trade talks, including with Europe. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,269, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3% at 20,640. The market focus today is on the US CPI for June.

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✓ Personalised Alerts
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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 16

Daily Brief Macro: US Inflation Creeps In Quietly and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

US Inflation Creeps In Quietly
Korean Government’s New Task Force for Inclusion in a Major Global Index + IBKR Korea Trading Signal
Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade
Big, Beautiful Folly – Underweight Treasuries
CX Daily: Controversial Mind-Body Therapy Attracts Over 1 Million Chinese Seeking Miraculous Cures
US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in ’25
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 July
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 July

US Inflation Creeps In Quietly

By Phil Rush

Rebounding headline and core US inflation in June understated the underlying growth, with shelter rising at its slowest pace since August 2021. Tariff pain crept in belatedly.
Commodities, less food, energy and car prices grew by 0.3% m-o-m, the fastest since Feb-23, and services (ex-shelter) hit 0.4% m-o-m, both inconsistent with the target.
Less than half of the post-election surge in expectations has survived so far. Further rises remain likely, even if sustained avoidance smooths and reduces the full impact.

Korean Government’s New Task Force for Inclusion in a Major Global Index + IBKR Korea Trading Signal

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss Korean government’s new task force for Korea to be included in a major global index.
Prior to this major market moving event, there will be some important signals.
One of the most important signals could be major global securities companies (such as IBKR/TD Ameritrade) allowing trading of Korean stocks to customers world-wide.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade

By Massif Capital Research

Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.
We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.
If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.

Big, Beautiful Folly – Underweight Treasuries

By Sharmila Whelan

The investment implications of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill are underweight US government debt and overweight US equities.
The bill is just plain old fashion demand side fiscal stimulus.
Favour momentum stocks with a sectoral bias towards consumer discretionary, tech, industrials, traditional energy, defence. Underweight renewables and Treasuries and increase exposure to Bitcoin.

CX Daily: Controversial Mind-Body Therapy Attracts Over 1 Million Chinese Seeking Miraculous Cures

By Caixin Global

Therapy /Cover Story: Controversial mind-body therapy attracts 1 million Chinese seeking miraculous cures
Kindergarten /China province elevates probe into kindergarten lead-poisoning scandal
Dialysis /In Depth: The illicit drug trade lurking behind ‘free’ dialysis

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in ’25

By Prasenjit K. Basu

Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May’25 despite Trump’s tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).
M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May’25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions.
For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 July

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus vacuum gasoil at start of Q3 2025.
Europe’s Group II base oils price-differentials hold unusually firm vs Group I and Group III base oils at start of Q3 2025.
Europe’s Group II base oils price-premium to Asia/US prices trends higher from early-Q2 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July

US Group II base oils price-premium to heating oil edges lower, stays in narrow range since start of Q2 2025.
Base oils price-premium stays rangebound even with expected improvement in supply and slowdown in demand in coming weeks.
US base oils supply could rise more swiftly in coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July

Asia heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds at elevated levels even as it slips from recent highs.
High heavy-grade margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output of the grades.
Besides firm margins, outperformance of regional Group I SN 500 price relative to other grades and other regions points to even stronger fundamentals for that product.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 July