
In today’s briefing:
- Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals
- Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand
- Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
- Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?
- Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook
- United Arrows Rising Again
- Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 4QFY24 Adj. EPS of $0.24 Beats Our Estimate
- Ford Motors’ New EV & Hybrid Strategy & New Restructuring Plan – Will It Pay Off?
- Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment
- What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 February (AkzoNobel | dsm-firmenich | Unilever)

Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals
- We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results.
- We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.
- We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.
Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand
- Guming Holdings, the leading mid-priced milk tea player in China, has priced its IPO at the top-end and upsized it to 182.6 mn shares, raising a total of HKD1.8 Bn.
- With strong HK retail investor demand, International investors bidding for Guming stock in the IPO had their allocations scaled back to 56.5% from 90% earlier.
- Guming will list at the HK stock exchange today and could likely see a good uptick upon listing given robust investor demand.
Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.
Toyota Motors: Is It Really Adapting to China’s Market For Long-Term Growth?
- Toyota Motor Corporation’s financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 reveal a period of cautious resilience amidst both internal challenges and external pressures.
- The company’s operating income for the first half of the fiscal year was recorded at JPY 2.4642 trillion, closely matching the figures from the same period last year, despite hurdles including production halts due to certification issues and the incremental costs associated with addressing these disruptions.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Shimano (7309) | Q4 Preview and Outlook
- Q4 Risks Remain: Market conditions deteriorated in late 2024, and key data points suggest a potential miss on Q4 earnings expectations.
- Focus on 2025 Outlook: Investors should shift attention to Shimano’s guidance, capital allocation strategy, and potential shareholder return initiatives in the coming year.
- Long-Term Value: Despite short-term uncertainties, Shimano’s strong fundamentals and disciplined strategy position it well for sustainable growth and high returns.
United Arrows Rising Again
- United Arrows spent a few years in retreat as a succession of problems around e-commerce, Covid and merchandising hit sales.
- Instead, competitors like the unlisted retailers, Baycrews and Mash Holdings, took greater share thanks to innovative ideas and new chains mixing fashion, lifestyle and food.
- United Arrows now claims the backend fixes are complete and it is starting to expand again, with new chains and target segments, both at home and overseas. Can it succeed?
Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 4QFY24 Adj. EPS of $0.24 Beats Our Estimate
- 4QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.24 beat our estimate of ($0.08) on much stronger-than-expected margins despite the continued weakness in industry-wide demand.
- Revenue was down 13.7% in wholesale and 8.3% in retail, as tough industry conditions persist, driven by the persistent slump in housing (a traditional driver of demand in residential furniture) and subdued spending on home improvement in the face of the post-lockdown exuberance.
- Nonetheless, a few bright spots were apparent, as retail orders were down only 0.6%, orders for outdoor furniture were up 33% (on a relatively small base), and e-commerce was up 27% (similarly, on a small base).
Ford Motors’ New EV & Hybrid Strategy & New Restructuring Plan – Will It Pay Off?
- Ford Motor Company is navigating a challenging financial landscape with a mix of growth and setbacks.
- The company reported record revenue of $185 billion in 2024, marking its fourth consecutive year of topline growth, primarily driven by strong demand in its truck and commercial vehicle segments.
- The F-Series retained its position as the best-selling pickup truck in the U.S., and the Ranger continued to expand globally.
Activist Investors with Increased AUM Will Also Likely Target Larger Companies for Investment
- Engagement begins only when there is a common understanding that “the management goal is to increase corporate value and shareholder interest.
- Because of differences in the level of understanding among listed companies, not all companies are able to smoothly discuss solutions to management issues based on the same common understanding.
- While ROA improved moderately, ROE improved slightly, indicating that more and more companies are committed to shareholder returns.
What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 February (AkzoNobel | dsm-firmenich | Unilever)
- In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Berger Paints steps aside from the race for Akzo Nobel India • dsm-firmenich | to sell its stake in Feed Enzymes Alliance to Novonesis for EUR 1.5bn • Unilever | believed to be close to a deal on the acquisition of Wild