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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Oil: Revisiting My Forecast and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Oil: Revisiting My Forecast
  • Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025
  • 7 EB Issues in Korea in June 2025 – More Coming Until Govt Revises Treasury Shares Regulations
  • Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook – Tell me something new
  • Mid-Year Themes Review – Part I
  • Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.
  • UK Homebuilding: Allocations Rebounds as Sentiment Improves
  • Chartbook – ASEAN’s Tariff Advantage Is Unlikely to Sustain
  • US Rates: DM swap spread outlook
  • India In The World – Weak Points


Oil: Revisiting My Forecast

By Alastair Newton

  • Oil supply is projected to outpace demand growth through 2026, leading to rising inventories and sustained downward pressure on Brent crude to below USD60pb.
  • Opec+ output increases, quota disputes (especially with the UAE), and the potential unwinding of voluntary cuts could further flood the market.
  • US shale producers and international oil companies are reducing investment due to lower prices, but current Brent levels are not yet low enough to force significant cuts.

Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Price edge and stable grades help Indonesia stage a good show  
  • US demand strengthens despite Trump tariffs  
  • China demand softens, Japan slides as tariffs take effect  

7 EB Issues in Korea in June 2025 – More Coming Until Govt Revises Treasury Shares Regulations

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing popularity of EB issues with treasury shares as the base assets in Korea. There were seven EB issue announcements in Korea in June.
  • Going forward, more Korean companies are likely to issue EBs in the next several months, prior to the actual official changes in regulations of treasury shares in Korea.
  • These companies that issue EBs using treasury shares as underlying assets are prime targets of short selling/underperformance.

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook – Tell me something new

By At Any Rate

  • Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower
  • Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large
  • Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Mid-Year Themes Review – Part I

By Rikki Malik

  • How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
  • Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
  • We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

By Steven Holden

  • Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
  • Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
  • Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.

UK Homebuilding: Allocations Rebounds as Sentiment Improves

By Steven Holden

  • UK active funds are buying back in to the UK Homebuilding sector, with ownership showing consistent increases from the lows of early 2024.
  • Over the past six months, Homebuilding recorded the third-largest increase in fund participation, trailing only Agricultural Commodities and Pharmaceuticals.
  • At the stock level, the sector remains highly concentrated. Four companies — Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, Barratt Redrow, and Persimmon — account for 81% of the total allocation.

Chartbook – ASEAN’s Tariff Advantage Is Unlikely to Sustain

By Priyanka Kishore

  • After a slow start in Q1, ASEAN has benefitted from front-loading of exports and favourable tariff differentials with China in Q2. But the momentum is likely to falter in H2.
  • With the 9 July deadline for reciprocal tariffs approaching and limited progress in trade talks with the US, tariffs could increase for the region within days.
  • Even if tariffs remain unchanged, exports and growth will likely slow as businesses and consumers adjust to higher costs and inventory restocking in the US gives way to declining demand.

US Rates: DM swap spread outlook

By At Any Rate

  • DM swap spreads exhibit correlation but also have idiosyncratic drivers
  • Central bank balance sheet evolution and money market rates are identified as top drivers of DM swap spreads
  • Fed expected to continue QT, ECB and BoJ expected to normalize balance sheets, impacting swap spreads

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


India In The World – Weak Points

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Overweight, Indian equities with a bias towards industrials, property and consumer stocks.
  • But investing in India is  ultimately about the domestic story
  • While its progress in AI, the green transition, and advanced manufacturing lags far behind China—disappointingly so—business cycle indicators are improving, and the multi-year structural growth narrative remains compelling.

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Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Nippon Concept, Ana Holdings, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Geek+, Fortive , Asia High Yield Bond Index, Deutsche Lufthansa , Hensoldt AG, Kirby Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
  • Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
  • Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?
  • Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession
  • Deutsche Lufthansa: Initiation of Coverage-Massive Turnaround Sparks Bold Profit Revival!
  • Hensoldt AG: Initiation of Coverage- Soaring Ahead with Next-Gen Sensor Breakthroughs!
  • Kirby Corporation Positioned to Win Big as Onshoring Trends Ignite Domestic Transport Demand; What’s The Expected Revenue Impact?


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas


Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP) has recommended a J-STAR-sponsored MBO at JPY3,060, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • An attractive offer and irrevocables pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from July 1 to August 13, with payment due on August 20.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-June 2025.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
  • There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round

By Nicholas Tan

  • Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to $300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
  • In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Fortive or Its Spin-Off Ralliant – Which One Is a Better Buy?

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Fortive and Ralliant began when-issued trading on June 25, 2025 under the ticker ‘FTV WI’ and ‘RAL WI’. 
  • The regular-way trading will begin on June 30, 2025. Ralliant will trade under the ticker ‘RAL’ and Fortive (ex Ralliant) will continue to trade under the ticker ‘FTV’.
  • As part of the transaction, FTV (ex RAL) will receive $1.15 billion in dividend from Ralliant Corp. RAL will assume debt to pay the cash dividend to FTV.

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

By Warut Promboon

  • Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.
  • We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. 
  • Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.

Deutsche Lufthansa: Initiation of Coverage-Massive Turnaround Sparks Bold Profit Revival!

By Baptista Research

  • Lufthansa Group’s Q1 2025 financial performance illustrated both challenges and progress within a complex operating environment.
  • Revenues surpassed €8 billion for the first time in a first quarter, marking a 10% year over-year increase—a notable achievement as Q1 typically represents the weakest period for the airline industry.
  • The growth was driven by robust demand, increased capacity, and higher yields, particularly in the North Atlantic market, a region where traveler numbers increased by 7% and yields rose by the same percentage.

Hensoldt AG: Initiation of Coverage- Soaring Ahead with Next-Gen Sensor Breakthroughs!

By Baptista Research

  • Hensoldt AG has demonstrated a strong performance for the first quarter of 2025, capitalizing on the shifting geopolitical landscape and increased defense spending in Europe.
  • The company has reported a solid order intake of EUR 701 million, driven by contracts like the Eurofighter Mk1 rebaselining and the Spanish Eurofighter Halcon program.
  • This performance underscores Hensoldt’s strategic alignment with the increased defense budget initiatives, particularly in Germany, aimed at boosting self-sufficiency in defense capabilities.

Kirby Corporation Positioned to Win Big as Onshoring Trends Ignite Domestic Transport Demand; What’s The Expected Revenue Impact?

By Baptista Research

  • Kirby Corporation’s recent quarterly results present a mixed performance across its major business segments, reflecting an interplay between favorable market conditions and some operational challenges.
  • The reported earnings per share for the quarter were $1.33, indicating a year-over-year improvement from $1.19 per share.
  • In the Marine Transportation segment, both inland and coastal operations faced navigational challenges.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Paladin Energy, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Zijin Mining Group , Rajshree Polypack, Santos Ltd, Medco Energi, Shell PLC, Zephyr Energy, ICL Group , Alpha Metallurgical Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Paladin’s CEO Exit: Cause for Concern?
  • Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025
  • Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion
  • RPPL: Strong Q4FY25 | Next 2Y Look Promising
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 30 June (IMCD | Shell | Unilever | Fugro | InPost | TomTom)
  • Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Equity raise for Rocky Mountain acquisition and working capital to Paradox first production
  • ICL Group: An Insight Into The Potash Market Dynamics, Regional Expansion & Recent M&A!
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!


Paladin’s CEO Exit: Cause for Concern?

By Money of Mine

  • Ian Purdy departing Paladin Energy, with Paul Hamburrow stepping up as new CEO
  • Paladin Energy facing challenges and controversies during Purdy’s tenure
  • Potential implications and scrutiny surrounding Purdy’s departure and the future of the company under new leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Indonesia Defies Headwinds To Post Robust Rubber Exports In Early 2025

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Price edge and stable grades help Indonesia stage a good show  
  • US demand strengthens despite Trump tariffs  
  • China demand softens, Japan slides as tariffs take effect  

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

By Rahul Jain

  • Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.
  • He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.
  • 5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.

RPPL: Strong Q4FY25 | Next 2Y Look Promising

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Rajshree Polypack (“RPPL”) reported excellent Q4FY25 led by strong growth in injection molding and exports revenue. Exports quarterly revenue grew to INR 20cr vs INR 10cr+ run-rate earlier.
  • Injection molding segment has grown well. It clocked INR 15cr+ in revenue in Q4FY25 vs INR 8cr YoY. For FY25, revenue from injection molding more than doubled to INR 40cr+.
  • Led by growing mix of high-value segments like injection molding, barrier packaging and exports in Q4FY25, EBITDA margin improved to 13.7% vs 13.5% YoY and 12.5% QoQ.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

By David Blennerhassett

  • For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
  • The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy
  • UST yields rose 3-4 bps across the curve on Friday, after US President Donald Trump cut off trade talks with Canada.
  • This unwound yield declines earlier in the day, on the back of weaker than expected personal spending and income data. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST advanced 3 bps to 3.75% and 4.28%, respectively.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 30 June (IMCD | Shell | Unilever | Fugro | InPost | TomTom)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • IMCD | acquires Apus Química in Chili • Shell | Labour prepared to approve BP takeover by Shell • Unilever | takeover sum Dr Squatch probably a lot lower than initially expected • Fugro | awarded four multi-year contracts by Petrobras • InPost | partnership with SPAR supermarkets in Italy • TomTom | to realign its organization with its product-led strategy

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Equity raise for Rocky Mountain acquisition and working capital to Paradox first production

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Zephyr has raised £10.5 mm of new equity at £0.03 per share.
  • The proceeds of the raise will fund (1) a £5.4 mm acquisition of 0.6 mmboe 2P and ~400 boe/d net production in the Rocky Mountains and (2) working capital and capex through to first production at its flagship Paradox Basin development.
  • • The acquisition includes working interests in a portfolio of over 400 wells, with 21 to be operated by Zephyr.

ICL Group: An Insight Into The Potash Market Dynamics, Regional Expansion & Recent M&A!

By Baptista Research

  • Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, showcasing modest growth amidst challenging global market conditions.
  • The company posted sales of $1.767 billion, representing a 2% increase year over year and a 10% rise compared to the previous quarter.
  • This performance was underpinned by solid execution of strategic initiatives across its divisions.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported financial results for the first quarter of 2025, which were notably impacted by severe weather and challenging market conditions.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter stood at $5.7 million with 3.8 million tons shipped, figures that reflect the adverse weather impacts on production and transportation.
  • The company faced increased costs due to absenteeism, power outages, and weather-related operational disruptions.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Lens Technology , Shift Up, Lens Technology, NVIDIA Corp, Samsung Electronics, Nemetschek SE, Constellation Software, Euronet Worldwide, Maximus Inc, GoodRx Holdings Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent
  • Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names
  • Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case
  • Nvidia’s Silent Cloud Takeover: How the AI Chip King is Disrupting Amazon, Google & Microsoft
  • Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.
  • Nemetschek Group: Initiation of Coverage- Game-Changing Subscriptions & Smart Tech Are Fueling Its Global Ascent!
  • Dialogue. Constellation Software & Copart Updates, AGM, Losing Market Share, Negative Insurance V…
  • Euronet: Accelerating Money Transfer Growth with 31% Digital Surge & 22 New Market Wins!
  • Maximus Inc: Emphasis on Operational & Financial Discipline To Stabilize Margins!
  • GoodRx Holdings: Is The Growth in Pharma Manufacturer Solutions Here To Stay?


Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$600m in its H-share listing.
  • Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names

By Sanghyun Park

  • Early take based on avg daily mkt cap: 5 MID→LARGE, 6 LARGE→MID. Count mismatch due to LG CNS likely making a direct jump into LARGE post-March IPO.
  • Local insto-driven moves remain tradable — in the March reshuffle, price action started from T–2M, with strongest returns in the T–1M window.
  • With cap gaps near historical norms, it’s time to pre-position around top/bottom cutline names — then scale up into borderlines as we move into the T–1M window.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.     
  • In terms of revenue in 2024, Lens is a global leader in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicle interaction systems.
  • The investment case is based on a well-performing core business, limited tariff impact, reduced reliance on Apple, strong margins, and robust cash generation. 

Nvidia’s Silent Cloud Takeover: How the AI Chip King is Disrupting Amazon, Google & Microsoft

By Baptista Research

  • In recent months, Nvidia has quietly transformed from the undisputed leader in AI semiconductors into a formidable new player in cloud computing.
  • What began with DGX Cloud—launched two years ago as an infrastructure offering focused on AI workloads—has evolved into a full-fledged attempt to reshape how cloud services are consumed and delivered.
  • The latest development is the launch of DGX Cloud Lepton, a marketplace designed to aggregate unused GPU capacity across a network of Nvidia-aligned cloud providers, including CoreWeave, Lambda, and Crusoe.

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.
  • Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.
  • Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.

Nemetschek Group: Initiation of Coverage- Game-Changing Subscriptions & Smart Tech Are Fueling Its Global Ascent!

By Baptista Research

  • Nemetschek SE demonstrated robust performance in the financial year 2024, underlining its capacity to sustain growth and profitability amid challenging global economic conditions, particularly in the construction industry.
  • The company’s transition towards a subscription and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)-centric business model has proven instrumental in its strategic evolution, contributing significantly to recurring revenue growth.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Dialogue. Constellation Software & Copart Updates, AGM, Losing Market Share, Negative Insurance V…

By The Synopsis

  • Constellation Software is a conglomerate of vertical market software companies that primarily grow through acquisitions
  • Revenue growth in 1Q25 was 13%, driven by acquisitions and a shift to more SaaS models
  • Free cash flow available to shareholders was up 14% to $510 million, excluding adjustments like the IRGA liability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Euronet: Accelerating Money Transfer Growth with 31% Digital Surge & 22 New Market Wins!

By Baptista Research

  • Euronet Worldwide concluded its first quarter of 2025 with several notable achievements and strategic moves that highlight both the strengths and challenges of the company’s diverse business model.
  • The company reported double-digit growth in both operating income and adjusted EBITDA, an 18% increase in operating income compared to the previous year.
  • The growth spanned across all segments, driven by robust performance in transaction processing and foreign exchange activities.

Maximus Inc: Emphasis on Operational & Financial Discipline To Stabilize Margins!

By Baptista Research

  • Maximus, as reported in their recent second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, exhibited a mixed performance, reflecting both strengths and challenges in their operational environment.
  • The company reported solid revenue growth, driven primarily by its U.S. Federal Services segment, which saw a 10.9% increase in revenue due to robust performance in clinical assessments and increased demand for certain services.
  • This growth, however, was slightly offset by a decline in their U.S. Services segment, attributable to the completion of prior year excess volumes linked to Medicaid unwinding.

GoodRx Holdings: Is The Growth in Pharma Manufacturer Solutions Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • GoodRx’s recent results for the first quarter of 2025 reflected a mixed performance and strategic repositioning under the new leadership of CEO Wendy Barnes, who marked her first 100 days in the role.
  • The company reported total revenue of $203 million, a year-over-year increase of 3%, with prescription transaction revenue and manufacturer solutions growing by 2% and 17%, respectively.
  • GoodRx also achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $69.8 million, up 11% from the previous year, indicating a solid profit margin.

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Daily Brief Financials: Canara Bank, BlackRock, USD, Edelweiss Financial Services, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Nesco Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management, Yorkville Acquisition, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Cantor Equity Partners III and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Relative Value Roundup: Opportunities and Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific
  • 225: Retirement Planning: What New Legislation Could Mean For Your Retirement Account
  • Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook – Tell me something new
  • Edelweiss: Last 3Y Have Seen Tremendous Shift, Next 2Y Should Be Even Better
  • HDB Financial Services: Float Cap Expansion Sets Stage for Global Index Inclusion
  • Nesco: Weak Q4FY25 Due to Underwhelming Performance in BEC
  • Nuvama: FY25 Ends To Be a Breakout Year
  • Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus
  • REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes
  • SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments


Relative Value Roundup: Opportunities and Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Three pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

225: Retirement Planning: What New Legislation Could Mean For Your Retirement Account

By The Bid

  • Retirement is a key focus for BlackRock, with half of their assets being retirement related
  • Recent policy changes have expanded access to workplace retirement plans in the US
  • BlackRock and the Bipartisan Policy Center have co-authored a paper with recommendations to increase access to retirement plans and improve best practices for saving and investing for retirement

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook – Tell me something new

By At Any Rate

  • Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower
  • Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large
  • Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Edelweiss: Last 3Y Have Seen Tremendous Shift, Next 2Y Should Be Even Better

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss has executed well over the past three years led by its pivot towards fee-based model. Its asset management businesses have grown rapidly, contributing significantly to the fee income.
  • The credit businesses are still struggling in terms of growth, but they have been pivoted successfully towards the co-lending model and the next couple of years could see significant growth.
  • The insurance businesses are also on track to breakeven over the next couple of years in line with the management’s prior guidance.

HDB Financial Services: Float Cap Expansion Sets Stage for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • The free float is estimated to gradually increase from ~15% up to 30% over six months due to the lock-up expiries of Anchor Investors and pre-IPO Shareholders.
  • HDB Financial Services is forecasted to be added to Global All-World in December 2025 following the lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
  • HDB Financial Services has a chance of inclusion in Global Standard in February 2026 following the lock-up expiry of pre-IPO shareholders which can increase free float up to 30%.

Nesco: Weak Q4FY25 Due to Underwhelming Performance in BEC

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nesco reported a weak Q4FY25 led by weak performance in the exhibition segment (“BEC”). Revenue in the BEC segment was down -25% YoY and -30% QoQ.
  • On the other hand, the IT Parks segment performed strong. IT Parks segment’s Q4FY25 revenue grew 2% QoQ and 15%+ YoY, led by improved occupancy and rise in rental rates.
  • Typically, the Foods business is linked to the BEC business. However, in Q4FY25, despite weak BEC revenues, the Foods business did well led by the catering business.

Nuvama: FY25 Ends To Be a Breakout Year

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) has consistently outperformed expectations throughout FY25 and Q4FY25 was no exception. In particular, the Asset Services sub-segment has been the outlier.
  • The Wealth Management and Asset Management segments continued to perform steadily providing resilience to the platform, despite cyclicality. They saw net inflows despite challenging market conditions during 2HFY25. 
  • Due to market volatility, certain pockets of the investment bank and institutional equities sub-segments saw somewhat muted performance, however, Nuvama fared much better relative to its peers.

Yorkville Acquisition SPAC: Trump-Linked Ventures and Telecom-Digital Asset Focus

By Special Situation Investments

  • YORKU units trade at $11, with each unit including common stock backed by a $10/share trust value and one-third of a warrant.
  • Yorkville Advisors, tied to Trump-related ventures, sponsors YORKU, with a 25% stake and a $150m IPO size.
  • YORKU targets telecom, media, and digital assets sectors, with management linked to Trump Media and potential speculative opportunities.

REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$248 million outflow, led by STI banks’ S$2.73 billion outflow.
  • United Overseas Bank, DBS Group Holdings, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation led share buybacks, totaling S$69.7 million in consideration.
  • Q & M Dental Group CEO Ng Chin Siau increased his interest to 55.78%, acquiring 7,041,300 shares via Quan Min Holdings.

SPACs, Strategic Reviews, and Acquisitions: Key Developments in Special Situation Investments

By Special Situation Investments

  • Cantor Equity Partners III (CAEP) added to tracking portfolio, trading at $10.50/share, 5% premium to trust value.
  • Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) stock rose 150% on positive phase 2b trial data for atopic dermatitis treatment Rezpeg.
  • SmartPay Holdings (SMP:AX) definitive agreement to be acquired by Shift4 Payments at NZ$1.20/share, 7% spread remains.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Talkmed, Hims & Hers Health Inc, 3SBio Inc, Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical, Mira Pharmaceuticals , Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Genuine Biotech, Apellis Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme
  • Hims & Hers Stock Nosedives: The Real Reason Behind the Novo Nordisk Breakup!
  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?
  • Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical IPO: Shine Revival Will Take a Few Sessions
  • MIRA: Data Shows Weight Drop Without Muscle Loss
  • REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes
  • Pre-IPO Genuine Biotech – The Current Pipeline Hardly Supports High Valuation
  • Apellis Pharma is Betting Big on Global Expansion for SYFOVRE; What Lies Ahead?


TalkMed (TKMED SP)’s Super Clean Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23 Dec 2024, tertiary health care provider TalkMed (TKMED SP)  announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Tamarind Health at S$0.456/share, a 20% premium to undisturbed.  
  • Tamarind is a Singaporean-based, pan-Asian oncology-focused group. As part of the deal, Temasek-backed 65 Equity Partners will subscribe for new shares in Tamarind.
  • The Composite Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 15th July, and expected payment around the 29th August. The IFA (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable“. 

Hims & Hers Stock Nosedives: The Real Reason Behind the Novo Nordisk Breakup!

By Baptista Research

  • Hims & Hers Health has found itself at the center of investor turmoil after its high-profile collaboration with Novo Nordisk on FDA-approved weight loss drug Wegovy abruptly ended.
  • The Danish pharmaceutical titan terminated the pact, accusing Hims & Hers of misleading marketing practices and non-compliance with regulations governing compounded drugs—actions it deemed a threat to patient safety.
  • Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum fired back, insisting the company’s compounding approach is legal under FDA rules and accusing Novo Nordisk of leveraging its market dominance to pressure patients toward branded Wegovy.

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?

By Tina Banerjee

  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) signed an outlicensing deal worth more than $6B with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707. Since signing the deal, 3SBio shares rallied more than 55%.
  • Considering deals signed with Chinese companies for bispecific antibody drug candidates in recent times, 3SBio seems to have secured best valuation for its asset.
  • Initiation of global trial of SSGJ-707 and data readout from its ongoing China trials for additional indications, continued strong financial performance, and new approvals are upcoming catalysts.

Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical IPO: Shine Revival Will Take a Few Sessions

By Tina Banerjee

  • Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical launched IPO aiming to raise up to HK$232 million (US$30 million). The company plans to sell 10.8 million shares at HK$20–HK$21.4 per share.
  • Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical is a private dental services provider in Central China providing dental services under the direct chain model.
  • The IPO price is set at a premium (23%) to the price realized during Series B funding. Valuation looks attractive. But there are a few concerns to take into account.

MIRA: Data Shows Weight Drop Without Muscle Loss

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

REITs and Tech led Net Institutional Inflows, as Frencken Chair and DHLT CEO Raised their Stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$248 million outflow, led by STI banks’ S$2.73 billion outflow.
  • United Overseas Bank, DBS Group Holdings, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation led share buybacks, totaling S$69.7 million in consideration.
  • Q & M Dental Group CEO Ng Chin Siau increased his interest to 55.78%, acquiring 7,041,300 shares via Quan Min Holdings.

Pre-IPO Genuine Biotech – The Current Pipeline Hardly Supports High Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Essentially, Genuine‘s pipeline and commercialization strategy are centered around azvudine. However, the commercialization would still rely on the indications of HIV infection and COVID-19 in the short term.
  • The COVID-19 has passed, so future revenue contribution of this indication will gradually shrink. Considering the unsustainability of its future performance, we suggest excluding COVID-19 projects when considering long-term valuation.
  • The post-investment valuation after Series B financing was RMB3.56 billion. However, we are conservative about Genuine’s outlook, and we think reasonable valuation could be below RMB2 billion.

Apellis Pharma is Betting Big on Global Expansion for SYFOVRE; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company focused on C3 targeting therapies, reported a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025.
  • The quarter was marked by both achievements and challenges across their product portfolio.
  • Key products include SYFOVRE for geographic atrophy (GA) and EMPAVELI, targeting rare nephrology indications like C3G and IC-MPGN, the latter advancing toward possible FDA approval with a PDUFA date set for July 28.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, RPSG Ventures Limited, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, International Game Technology, Deliveroo, Easy Bio, Tencent Music, Sanyo Shokai, Midea Group, JD.com and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – June 2025
  • RPSG Ventures: BPO Business Doing Well | Holding Company Discount at 82%
  • Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger
  • Buy International Gaming Technologies
  • High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #37: Easy Bio Inc
  • Tencent Music (TME): Quick Note – Acquisition of Ximalaya
  • Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
  • Midea Group(300 HK): Upcoming Spin-Off & IPO of ‘Annto’,Ongoing and Proposed Buyback, Strong Outlook
  • JD.com (9618 HK) Top Option Trades: Bullish Butterfly Stands Out Amond Bearish Sentiment


Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – June 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA


RPSG Ventures: BPO Business Doing Well | Holding Company Discount at 82%

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • RPSG Ventures reported a strong Q4FY25 led by the BPO business that has been growing well. BPO revenues grew 3%+ QoQ and 30%+ YoY. EBIT margin has sustained at 11%+.
  • The FMCG business after posting INR 550cr+ annualized revenue run-rate for the past few quarters saw a dip in Q4FY25 with annualized revenue at INR 520cr.
  • The Sports segment reported similar revenue YoY at INR 135cr+, led by part revenue recognition from IPL 2025 that began at end of March, similar to that in 2024.

Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) demerged its business into two focussed entities, ABLBL(Stable Business) and ABFRL(High growth Business).
  • The separation aligns capital with business maturity isolating cash-generating lifestyle brands from high-growth, capital-hungry verticals like ethnic, luxury, and digital-first.
  • The two entities are targeting a combined INR 30,000 Cr in revenue and 3x cash profit by FY30 through unlocking sharper execution, better capital efficiency, and distinct investor appeal.

Buy International Gaming Technologies

By Richard Howe

  • International Gaming Technologies (IGT) is in the process of selling its Global Gaming and PlayDigital segments.
  • The merger arbitrage market implies a high likelihood that this deal closes soon ($14.23 share price for EVRI vs. acquisition price of $14.25).
  • Guidance is the deal could close as soon as July 1, 2025.

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
  • At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
  • Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.

Korea Small Cap Gem #37: Easy Bio Inc

By Douglas Kim

  • Easy Bio Inc is one of the leaders specializing in piglet feed and animal feed additives in Korea. 
  • The company completed an excellent M&A of a company in the US called Devenish Nutrition in February 2024 for 88 billion won. 
  • If we assume a P/E of 10x and apply this on consensus net profit estimate of 36.3 billion won in 2026, this would suggest market cap of 363 billion won. 

Tencent Music (TME): Quick Note – Acquisition of Ximalaya

By Ming Lu

  • TME proposed to acquire 100% shares of Ximalaya, a long audio app.
  • TME has been exploring the long audio market since 2020.
  • We believe Ximalaya has advantages in monthly active users and car radio.

Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased by 5.7% YoY to JPY14.5bn, with operating profit declining by 95.2% YoY to JPY36m.
  • Net income attributable to owners fell 93.9% YoY to JPY36m, with recurring profit down 96.6% YoY to JPY25m.
  • Despite reducing SG&A expenses by JPY400m, cost-control efforts failed to offset gross profit decline from lower revenue.

Midea Group(300 HK): Upcoming Spin-Off & IPO of ‘Annto’,Ongoing and Proposed Buyback, Strong Outlook

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Annto IPO: Midea Group (300 HK)plans to spin off its subsidiary Annto Logistics via a domestic IPO to unlock value in its fast-growing logistics platform.
  • Share Buyback:Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) announced a RMB 5–10 billion A-share buyback in June 2025, signaling confidence and supporting shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation.
  • B2B Transition: Shifting from a B2C appliance maker to a tech-led B2B solution provider. With B2B contribution over 30% of revenue, it positions it for long-term, higher-margin, solution-led global growth

JD.com (9618 HK) Top Option Trades: Bullish Butterfly Stands Out Amond Bearish Sentiment

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Over the past five trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Highlights: Diagonal Spreads continue to enjoy popularity. Plus, an out of the money butterfly at near zero premium demonstrates a creative application of this popular option combination.
  • Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

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Most Read: Krungthai Card, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Santos Ltd, BayCurrent Consulting , Nippon Concept, Lens Technology , Ana Holdings, Shift Up, Lens Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
  • Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)
  • Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent
  • Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names
  • Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

By David Blennerhassett


A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
  • It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

By David Blennerhassett


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas


Nippon Concept (9386 JP): J-STAR-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Nippon Concept (9386 JP) has recommended a J-STAR-sponsored MBO at JPY3,060, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • An attractive offer and irrevocables pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from July 1 to August 13, with payment due on August 20.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-June 2025 Ranks (FINAL EXPECTATIONS)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-June 2025.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$600m in its H-share listing.
  • Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sizing up September’s KOSPI Size Index Migration Names

By Sanghyun Park

  • Early take based on avg daily mkt cap: 5 MID→LARGE, 6 LARGE→MID. Count mismatch due to LG CNS likely making a direct jump into LARGE post-March IPO.
  • Local insto-driven moves remain tradable — in the March reshuffle, price action started from T–2M, with strongest returns in the T–1M window.
  • With cap gaps near historical norms, it’s time to pre-position around top/bottom cutline names — then scale up into borderlines as we move into the T–1M window.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.     
  • In terms of revenue in 2024, Lens is a global leader in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicle interaction systems.
  • The investment case is based on a well-performing core business, limited tariff impact, reduced reliance on Apple, strong margins, and robust cash generation. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: IFBH and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered


IFBH IPO Trading – Strong Overall Demand, Clawback Triggered

By Akshat Shah

  • IFBH (6603 HK) raised about US$148m in its HK IPO.
  • IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Daily Brief Australia: Monash IVF, Xero Ltd, Iron Ore, PointsBet Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?
  • ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent
  • Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels
  • PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025


Monash IVF (MVF AU): Embroiled in Embryo Bungle; Will the Growth Baby Be Delivered?

By Tina Banerjee

  • Monash IVF (MVF AU) announced that an incident occurred at its Brisbane clinic, where embryo of one patient was incorrectly transferred to another patient resulting in birth of a child.
  • The company revised the guidance of FY25 underlying NPAT to be A$27.5M from previous A$30M–31M, announced post H1FY25 results.
  • Consensus estimates predict the company’s FY26 revenue to grow marginally by 1% to A$272M and net profit to decline nearly 5%.

ECM Weekly (30 June 2025) – FWD, Anjoy, IFBH, HDB Financials, Virgin, Xero, Shinhan, Innovent

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, in a busy listing week, the results from listing were mixed.
  • On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

By Sameer Taneja


PointsBet Holdings Ltd – The Monday Report – 30 June 2025

By FNArena

  • Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

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