Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful.
That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months.
And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime.

[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM.
There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

Nippon Steel (5401 JP) – No Rival, No Discount, Limited Control

Nippon paid full price despite governance restrictions; with no credible rival, rejecting the golden share risked collapsing the deal.
Historical golden share precedents imply 10–20% valuation discounts, yet Nippon accepted late-stage constraints without renegotiation.
Funding mix includes bridge loans, hybrids, and asset sales, but proposed equity issuance near 40% below book risks EPS dilution and undermines capital discipline messaging.

Nippon Building Fund Placement – Small Deal but Lacks Accretion

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) is looking to raise around US$122m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of Frontier Musashikosugi N Building and S Building.
Unusually for Japan, the acquisition was announced at the end of last month, while the raising has only been announced today.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Allegro MicroSystems: China-for-China Strategy to Harness Growth In One Of The World’s Largest Semiconductor Markets!

Allegro MicroSystems has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2025.
The company is focused on strengthening its market position through innovation and operational efficiencies.
President and CEO Mike Doogue, who ascended from being the company’s first Chief Technology Officer, emphasized a strategic focus on expanding product capabilities and extending Allegro’s footprint in lucrative markets such as automotive, industrial, and emerging sectors like medical and robotics.

Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Forex Holds FY25 Together; FY26 Guidance Does Not Offer Much Respite

By Tina Banerjee

Olympus Corp (7733 JP) witnessed revenue grow 8% YoY to ¥997B (3% on Fx neutral basis) in FY25, driven by both the Endoscopic Solutions and Therapeutic Solutions divisions.
North America sales growth continues to be favorable in warding off the decline faced in China. GI Endoscopy (55% of ESD revenue) witnessed its revenue grow 8% to ¥350B.
Olympus guided FY26 revenue to be flat YoY at ¥999B. R&D expenses are expected to rise, scarring the margins. Adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be 17.5% (FY25: 18.9%).

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Jun 20

Daily Brief China: Ningbo Port, China Rare Earth Holdings, Pop Mart International Group L, Copper, Saint Bella, Dongfeng Motor, United States Oil Fund LP and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?
Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price
Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares
Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?
Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?

By David Blennerhassett

China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK), a processor and trader of rare earth oxides/metals, is suspended for reasons unknown.
But not before gaining 79% month to date. On huge volume. And that gain is after giving back 23% from a recent high close.
As discussed in Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths; although there has been some partial easing.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price

By Ming Lu

We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing available IPs.
We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025.
However, the stock is overvalued by cross-sectional comparison and fairly valued by time-series comparison.

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a luxury maternity and baby care brand, has announced the fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share for its IPO in Hong Kong.
The company is expected to IPO next week and initial fixed offer price implies a market cap of ~HK$3.9B. Saint Bella is set to start trading on June 26, 2025.
Cornerstone investors have agreed to invest ~$42M in this offering. China Asset Management, JKKB and SS Morgan are among the cornerstone investors.

Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Abandoned Restructuring: Recently Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) confirmed that there is no restructuring activity involving its controlling shareholder.This raises hope that it is looking to turnaround its operations by itself.
New Energy Vehicle (NEV) transformation gaining momentum: NEV sales grew 34.4% YTD May 2025; Dongfeng leads with proprietary EV platforms, smart tech integration, and Huawei-backed high-end launches.
Trades at just 0.32x P/B, Cash at USD 14bn is much higher than market cap of USD 4bn. significantly undervalued versus peers, despite strong cash reserves,rising exports, and NEV scaling.

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

By John Ley

Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.

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Jun 19

Most Read: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, BayCurrent Consulting , Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Kolmar Korea Holdings , Mitsui Matsushima, Qi An Xin Technology Group , Mayne Pharma, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025
HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
Kolmar Group Chairman Yoon: A Rare Case Of “I Want My Shares Back”
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes
Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

By Brian Freitas

We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas

HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

Kolmar Group Chairman Yoon: A Rare Case Of “I Want My Shares Back”

By Douglas Kim

Chairman Yoon Dong-han, founder of the Kolmar Group, has filed a lawsuit against his eldest son, Vice Chairman Yoon Sang-hyun of Kolmar Holdings, demanding the return of Kolmar Holdings shares.
This is a rare case of a chairman demanding his shares back from his son.
A key question is can there be an M&A fight for Kolmar Holdings even without the father getting his shares back? And the answer would be yes.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm).
This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend.

UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High

By Phil Rush

UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes

By Arun George

To no one’s surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).
The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully.

Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Utilities: ENN Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ENN Energy, Vedanta Resources, Jababeka, Softbank Group
Treasuries climbed yesterday, with long-end yields declining amid a risk-off sentiment driven by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. The yield on the 2Y UST slid 1 bp to 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 6 bps to 4.39%.
Equities retreated, after US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and following the release of weak retail sales and industrial production data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively, to 5,983 and 19,521, respectively.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Asia Data Center REITs: The AI-Driven Generational Investment Opportunity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Asia Data Center REITs: The AI-Driven Generational Investment Opportunity
Ohayo Japan | Fed in No Rush to Cut Rates
Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement
Thematic Report: Ozempic- Weight Loss Drug Revolution
Charted Insights: Is Indian Earnings Recovery in Q4FY25 Sustainable?
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly ‘Crisis Mode’ Return-To-Office
Biopharma Week in Review – Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising
Thematic Report on Gold Loan Revolution: Formalizing the Sector for a Transparent Future

Asia Data Center REITs: The AI-Driven Generational Investment Opportunity

By Jacob Cheng

Driven by long-term structural drivers including cloud computing adoption, digital transformation, 5G network rollout, we think Data Centers in Asia can be a generational investment opportunity
Keppel DC REIT and Digital Core REIT are pure plays listed in Singapore. Keppel is Singapore-concentrated, offering stable growth. DC REIT’s portfolio is global, and backed by Digital Realty
We think interest rate volatility, regulatory framework and data localization policies, as well as market supply have to be taken into consideration when investors are making investment decisions

Ohayo Japan | Fed in No Rush to Cut Rates

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks flat after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged
Marvell (MRVL) +7% on bullish AI guidance. Momentum in U.S. semi names continues to support investor appetite for global tech exposure
Activist investor, Effissimo Capital Management, increased its stake in UACJ

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

By Andrew Jackson

Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.
Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.
Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.

Thematic Report: Ozempic- Weight Loss Drug Revolution

By Nimish Maheshwari

Once overlooked, Ozempic (semaglutide) has become a multi-billion-dollar drug, transforming the landscape of weight loss and chronic disease management due to its remarkable efficacy.
With new FDA-approved indications for cardiovascular risk, chronic kidney disease, and obesity, Ozempic is driving massive market growth, set to dominate the GLP-1 receptor agonist sector.
While patent protection and high demand fuel growth, the impending expiration in key markets like India and competition from emerging drugs will impact pricing and market dynamics.

Charted Insights: Is Indian Earnings Recovery in Q4FY25 Sustainable?

BSE500 reported a recovery in PAT growth from 8% YoY in Q3FY25 to 10% YoY in Q4FY25, but top-line growth remained flat at just 8%, continuing a weak trend.
Margin expansion was cost-driven, with wage bill growth slowing to 5% YoY i.e. its lowest level post-COVID impacting future consumption potential.
FY26 BSE500 EPS estimates were cut by 3% in Q4, totaling a 10% downgrade YoY, signaling stagnation despite index valuation rollover.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly ‘Crisis Mode’ Return-To-Office

By Water Tower Research

Middle East conflict and tariff policy uncertainty weigh down the market.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 3.6%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 3.4%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was down 1.7%, as the broader market indices declined 0.5% and the R2K fell 2.1%.
Innovation sprints and ‘crisis’ response drive return-to- office policies (1), at least for one hedge fund who is demanding that staff commit to five days a week at the office in order to address recent performance shortcomings, with management arguing that “experience has shown that a period of highly focused, in-person collaboration allows significant research progress to be made in a relatively short amount of time.”

Biopharma Week in Review – Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

By Water Tower Research

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA 2025).
Vaccine concerns reached new heights as RFK Jr. suddenly (but not surprising) dismantled the CDC’s ACIP (vaccine expert panel) and replaced it with vaccine skeptics to reshape vaccine policy and guidance.
Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) appeared to be in a stand-off as the 30- day deadline (June 11) for drug price targets passed without any action.

Thematic Report on Gold Loan Revolution: Formalizing the Sector for a Transparent Future

The RBI’s new policy introduces tiered LTV ratios, stricter collateral eligibility, and standardized gold valuation processes across banks, NBFCs, and co-operative banks.
This shift aims to enhance transparency, protect borrowers, reduce systemic risk, and formalize the gold loan market, promoting responsible lending and financial inclusion.
The policy significantly strengthens the gold loan ecosystem, ensuring greater trust and stability, while improving access to credit for underserved populations, especially in rural areas.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Mitsui Matsushima, Trane Technologies , Inpost, Ryder System, Nibe Industrier Ab, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, Cintas Corp, Samsung Heavy Industries, Securitas AB and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
Trane Technologies: Resilient Residential HVAC Transition…
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)
Ryder System: Optimizing Omnichannel Retail Warehouse Network in Supply Chain Solutions For Margin Expansion!
NIBE Industrier: Initiation of Coverage- How Strategic Market Moves in Europe Are Rewriting Its Growth Playbook!
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..
Cintas Corporation: Cross-Selling & Expanding Product Portfolio To Up Their Game!
Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected
Securitas AB – Game-Changing Divestments & Profit Acceleration in Motion!

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm).
This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend.

Trane Technologies: Resilient Residential HVAC Transition…

Trane Technologies reported strong first quarter results for 2025, showing resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
They achieved an 11% organic revenue growth and a 26% increase in adjusted EPS, largely propelled by their innovations in sustainable solutions and a strategic focus on high-demand sectors like Commercial HVAC.
The company continues to benefit from its robust operating system and strategic direct sales force, which have driven significant market outperformance and growth in bookings across verticals such as data centers, healthcare, and higher education.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Heineken | Vietnam’s consumption tax increases: no near-term impact expected • AMG Critical Materials | increases interest in Zinnwald Lithium to 29.6% • PostNL | House committees to meet today on which topics to declare controversial • E-commerce / E-com logistics | online spending in the Netherlands up 4% YoY in 1Q25

Ryder System: Optimizing Omnichannel Retail Warehouse Network in Supply Chain Solutions For Margin Expansion!

Ryder System’s first quarter 2025 earnings highlighted a mix of strong strategic execution and challenges from market conditions.
The company reported a 2% increase in operating revenue, reaching $2.6 billion, driven by contractual growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), albeit partly offset by weaker rental demand.
The comparable earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations rose to $2.46 from $2.14 in the previous year, demonstrating resilience amid a challenging environment.

NIBE Industrier: Initiation of Coverage- How Strategic Market Moves in Europe Are Rewriting Its Growth Playbook!

NIBE Industrier AB’s Q1 2025 earnings highlighted key operational and financial aspects affecting its divisions, showcasing both challenges and positive strides within its Climate Solutions, Element, and Stoves segments.
The leadership emphasized a cautious optimism amidst a stabilizing market environment, marking a transition to more traditional and predictable seasonal patterns.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

ARE&M reported Q4 FY25 with modest revenue growth but saw slight declines in EBITDAand PAT margins due to cost pressures and provisions.
Elevated material and power costs significantly impacted profitability despite underlying business growth, presenting a challenge for margin recovery efforts.
Focus shifts to monitoring the effectiveness of recent price hikes, cost-saving initiatives, and the ramp-up of new, more efficient manufacturing facilities in restoring targeted margins.

Cintas Corporation: Cross-Selling & Expanding Product Portfolio To Up Their Game!

Cintas Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, highlighting both strengths and areas to monitor.
The company demonstrated robust financial performance, reporting an 8.4% increase in total revenue to $2.61 billion, with an organic growth rate of 7.9%.
Despite negative impacts from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, the Uniform Rental and Facility Services segment achieved a 7% organic growth, while First Aid and Safety Services and Fire Protection Services reported impressive double-digit growth, suggesting a strong customer value proposition.

Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected

SHI officially terminated $3.54B worth of Russian contracts on June 18, citing prolonged non-performance by Zvezda.
The company is pursuing arbitration in Singapore, aiming to retain $800M in advances and seek additional damages. Most such cases have favoured shipbuilders.
With no production initiated and a strong $28–30B backlog, the impact on operations and FY25 guidance is expected to be minimal.

Securitas AB – Game-Changing Divestments & Profit Acceleration in Motion!

Securitas AB reported its first-quarter financial results, showcasing a mixed performance marked by certain strategic advancements alongside ongoing challenges.
The company reported a 3% organic growth rate, aligned with a 40-basis-point improvement in their operating margin, which reached 6.4%.
Importantly, Securitas achieved a 16% growth in earnings per share (EPS), evidence of their financial momentum despite some operational constraints.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Mitsui Matsushima, Trane Technologies , Inpost, Ryder System, Nibe Industrier Ab, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, Cintas Corp, Samsung Heavy Industries, Securitas AB and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
Trane Technologies: Resilient Residential HVAC Transition…
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)
Ryder System: Optimizing Omnichannel Retail Warehouse Network in Supply Chain Solutions For Margin Expansion!
NIBE Industrier: Initiation of Coverage- How Strategic Market Moves in Europe Are Rewriting Its Growth Playbook!
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..
Cintas Corporation: Cross-Selling & Expanding Product Portfolio To Up Their Game!
Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected
Securitas AB – Game-Changing Divestments & Profit Acceleration in Motion!

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm).
This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend.

Trane Technologies: Resilient Residential HVAC Transition…

Trane Technologies reported strong first quarter results for 2025, showing resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
They achieved an 11% organic revenue growth and a 26% increase in adjusted EPS, largely propelled by their innovations in sustainable solutions and a strategic focus on high-demand sectors like Commercial HVAC.
The company continues to benefit from its robust operating system and strategic direct sales force, which have driven significant market outperformance and growth in bookings across verticals such as data centers, healthcare, and higher education.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 18 June (Heineken | AMG Critical Materials | PostNL | E-com/logistics)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Heineken | Vietnam’s consumption tax increases: no near-term impact expected • AMG Critical Materials | increases interest in Zinnwald Lithium to 29.6% • PostNL | House committees to meet today on which topics to declare controversial • E-commerce / E-com logistics | online spending in the Netherlands up 4% YoY in 1Q25

Ryder System: Optimizing Omnichannel Retail Warehouse Network in Supply Chain Solutions For Margin Expansion!

Ryder System’s first quarter 2025 earnings highlighted a mix of strong strategic execution and challenges from market conditions.
The company reported a 2% increase in operating revenue, reaching $2.6 billion, driven by contractual growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), albeit partly offset by weaker rental demand.
The comparable earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations rose to $2.46 from $2.14 in the previous year, demonstrating resilience amid a challenging environment.

NIBE Industrier: Initiation of Coverage- How Strategic Market Moves in Europe Are Rewriting Its Growth Playbook!

NIBE Industrier AB’s Q1 2025 earnings highlighted key operational and financial aspects affecting its divisions, showcasing both challenges and positive strides within its Climate Solutions, Element, and Stoves segments.
The leadership emphasized a cautious optimism amidst a stabilizing market environment, marking a transition to more traditional and predictable seasonal patterns.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

ARE&M reported Q4 FY25 with modest revenue growth but saw slight declines in EBITDAand PAT margins due to cost pressures and provisions.
Elevated material and power costs significantly impacted profitability despite underlying business growth, presenting a challenge for margin recovery efforts.
Focus shifts to monitoring the effectiveness of recent price hikes, cost-saving initiatives, and the ramp-up of new, more efficient manufacturing facilities in restoring targeted margins.

Cintas Corporation: Cross-Selling & Expanding Product Portfolio To Up Their Game!

Cintas Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, highlighting both strengths and areas to monitor.
The company demonstrated robust financial performance, reporting an 8.4% increase in total revenue to $2.61 billion, with an organic growth rate of 7.9%.
Despite negative impacts from foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, the Uniform Rental and Facility Services segment achieved a 7% organic growth, while First Aid and Safety Services and Fire Protection Services reported impressive double-digit growth, suggesting a strong customer value proposition.

Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected

SHI officially terminated $3.54B worth of Russian contracts on June 18, citing prolonged non-performance by Zvezda.
The company is pursuing arbitration in Singapore, aiming to retain $800M in advances and seek additional damages. Most such cases have favoured shipbuilders.
With no production initiated and a strong $28–30B backlog, the impact on operations and FY25 guidance is expected to be minimal.

Securitas AB – Game-Changing Divestments & Profit Acceleration in Motion!

Securitas AB reported its first-quarter financial results, showcasing a mixed performance marked by certain strategic advancements alongside ongoing challenges.
The company reported a 3% organic growth rate, aligned with a 40-basis-point improvement in their operating margin, which reached 6.4%.
Importantly, Securitas achieved a 16% growth in earnings per share (EPS), evidence of their financial momentum despite some operational constraints.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief ECM: Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either
Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Trading – Very Strong Demand, Weak Price Momentum
Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut
Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Not Blindingly Cheap but Peer Momentum Is Strong
Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO
CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts
FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO – Positioned to Capture Structural Demand in Networking
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): AI Cancer TechBio Company Surges Six Points at Open

Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Trading – Very Strong Demand, Weak Price Momentum

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn (including over-allocation) in its H-share listing.
FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) priced its H Share at HK$36.30 to raise HK$10,128.9 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
Haitian had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Not Blindingly Cheap but Peer Momentum Is Strong

By Nicholas Tan

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise up to $143m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO

By IPO Boutique

They provide tasty, fresh, natural, healthy and convenient food products to customers across over 40 countries worldwide.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, they recorded a total revenue of US$2,195.0 million, increasing by 17.3% from US$1,870.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
The area in which this company operates in is one that is not traditionally attractive to IPO investors as the margins are low and the competition is high.

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.
CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CaoCao (2643 HK) ‘s IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts

By Akshat Shah

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO – Positioned to Capture Structural Demand in Networking

By Troy Wong

FS.COM Limited (FS) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
FS presents a compelling growth story rooted in structural demand for enterprise-grade networking and a differentiated DTC model that delivers both scale and customer proximity.
Its dominant SKU breadth, global Fortune 500 penetration, and aggressive shift toward high-performance solutions support sustained revenue expansion.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery Co., Ltd. (6168 HK)‘s IPO does not appeal to us, given deteriorating profitability, smaller size, and inferior financials.
Its IPO price of HK$24.0 appears to be fair relative to the peers’ valuation, leaving limited upside and downside in the secondary market.
We value the stock at HK$22.5-25.7, based on 20-30% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). It is not another Laopu Gold (6181 HK).

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): AI Cancer TechBio Company Surges Six Points at Open

By IPO Boutique

The next-generation AI TechBio company priced a full size deal of 23.5mm shares at $21.00 and opened at $27.00 for a gain of 28.6% at first trade.
It was easy for IPO investors to wrap their heads around this company. Caris generates billions of data points and uses AI to customize immunotherapy for individuals.
Looking ahead, it is our opinion that this “could” be a company that investors tuck away in their portfolio for a long time.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Nippon Steel Corporation, Cameco Corp, Iron Ore, Ppg Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Coterra Energy , United States Oil Fund LP, Boliden AB, W&T Offshore, Centrus Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks
Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle
[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook
PPG Industries: Will Its Strategic Focus on Organic Growth & Share Gains Be A Potential Game Changer?
Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts
Coterra Energy: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!
Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk
Boliden AB: Initiation of Coverage- High-Impact Acquisitions & Financial Firepower Fuel Growth Surge!
W&T Offshore, Inc: Estimate Update
Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks

Nippon Steel has acquired U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion in cash, adding 23 Mt of crude steel capacity and a full U.S. and EU footprint.
The acquisition marks a bold step toward NS’s “100 MT Vision,” diversifying earnings beyond Japan and strengthening presence in a geopolitically stable market.
U.S. Steel remains heavily BF–based and tied to a structurally flat demand market; long-term steel consumption in the U.S. has declined, making returns dependent on aggressive modernization & macro tailwinds.

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.
The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.
While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook

By Umang Agrawal

China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.
China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.
Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.

PPG Industries: Will Its Strategic Focus on Organic Growth & Share Gains Be A Potential Game Changer?

PPG Industries recently released its first-quarter financial results for 2025, which highlighted some key taking points for potential investors.
The company’s reported sales amounted to $3.7 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over year decrease attributed primarily to unfavorable foreign currency translations and business divestitures, such as its Silicas business.
Although these components adversely affected overall sales figures, PPG reported positive organic sales growth, driven by increased sales volumes and selling prices, notably in Asia, with strong performances in nations like China, India, and Vietnam.

Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts

By Vinod Nedumudy

Truck tire imports from Thailand fell 41% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025
Q1 2025 tire imports rise 3–4% year-on-year
Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia gain as China, Thailand falter

Coterra Energy: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

Coterra Energy’s recent earnings present a mixed picture of the company’s financial and operational standing.
On the positive side, Coterra exceeded its oil production guidance, with natural gas production surpassing expectations.
Additionally, capital expenditures were kept near the low end of projections, reflecting disciplined financial management.

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

By John Ley

Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.
Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.
We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics

Boliden AB: Initiation of Coverage- High-Impact Acquisitions & Financial Firepower Fuel Growth Surge!

Boliden AB’s Q1 2025 results offer a mixed view of the company’s current standing and future prospects.
The highlights for the quarter indicate an operating profit of SEK 2.6 billion, which was impacted by Finnish strikes, resulting in a negative impact of approximately SEK 100 million.
On the balance sheet, free cash flow was noted to be negative SEK 1.9 billion, attributed to a rebuild of working capital that was initially worked down effectively in the previous quarter.

W&T Offshore, Inc: Estimate Update

By Water Tower Research

W&T’s total production is expected to rise in 2H25 with the resumption of output from two fields that had remained shut in since they were acquired in the January 2024 Cox acquisition.
The West Delta 73 and Main Pass 108/109 fields returned to production in late March/early April and are expected to ramp up during 2Q25.
2Q25 total production guidance is 32.7-36.2 Mboe/d, compared with 1Q25 total production of 30.5 Mboe/d. t.

Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds