Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

Asia base oils prices slide relative to crude and gasoil prices, triggering fall in margins.
Size and speed of drop in base oils premium to crude/gasoil complicates production and procurement plans.
Any signs of crude oil prices holding at more elevated levels for longer, and base oils margins at lower levels for longer, could put pressure on refiners to cut output.

PBSV: Margins Increase and Profitability Returns

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Pharma-Bio Serv(PBSV) Company Sponsored Research Report

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Japan: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Shiseido Company, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Intloop , Geechs Inc, LIFULL, Kansai Super Market, Ohba Co Ltd, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) – Strong Earnings, ¥10.2T Backlog, Macro Tailwinds Remain Supportive
Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin
MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits
Thanks to TSE’s Guidance, Parent-Subsidiary Listings Remain a Long-Lasting Investment Opportunity
INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Delivering Solid Margin Expansion
Q4 Follow-Up – Geechs (7060 JP) – New Initiatives Aimed at Achieving Operating Profit…
Q2 Follow-Up – Lifull (2120 JP) – HOME’S Services Segment Delivers Steady Performance
OK Super: Disrupting Kansai Supermarket Sector
Q3 Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP) – Favorable External Conditions Likely to Continue in FY2026
Q4 Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – An Increase in Dividend Payment…

Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) – Strong Earnings, ¥10.2T Backlog, Macro Tailwinds Remain Supportive

By Rahul Jain

MHI has delivered a strong turnaround over the past four years, with revenue up 26% and business profit expanding nearly 10x from FY22 to FY25
The consolidated order backlog crossed ¥10.2 trillion in FY25, up ~22% YoY, offering ~2 years of forward revenue visibility and skewed toward high-margin Energy and Defense segments.
While the stock has rallied sharply, management’s solid FY25–30 guidance, along with structural tailwinds from energy transition and defense spending, continue to underpin the long-term thesis.

Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin

By Mark Chadwick

Shiseido’s core brand remains strong, but years of weak growth, high costs, and tariff risks have pushed valuations to deeply discounted, near-decade lows.
Early signs from Japan show margin recovery is possible; aggressive cost-cutting could double core operating margins and unlock significant upside if execution holds.
If management fails to deliver, Shiseido’s global brand equity, strategic footprint, and low valuation make it an obvious acquisition target for PE or industry buyers.

MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

By Scott Foster

MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management’s EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
By then, we expect Air, Defense & Space revenues to double and the division’s operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability.
Given Japan’s uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking.

Thanks to TSE’s Guidance, Parent-Subsidiary Listings Remain a Long-Lasting Investment Opportunity

By Aki Matsumoto

From the standpoint of endorsing parent-subsidiary listings, TSE intends to provide better disclosure guidance to ensure that the interests of minority shareholders of listed subsidiaries are adequately secured.
While investors expect early resolution, parent-subsidiary listings continue to be a long-lived theme and investment opportunity, thanks to the TSE giving them time to dissolve their parent-subsidiary listings.
As for the parent-subsidiary listings, the key is the percentage of foreign holdings, with some companies initiating restructuring of their business portfolios and many others not.

INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Delivering Solid Margin Expansion

By Astris Advisory Japan

Unlocking improved earnings potential – By prioritizing high-quality business opportunities, INTLOOP continues to improve OPM YoY, reflecting stronger operating efficiency.
Q1-3 FY7/25 results were ahead of unchanged FY guidance, with the company continuing to invest in scaling capacity with new senior mid-career hires as well as graduates.
Management believes there is further upside to margin expansion through profit-focused sales activities and price revisions.

Q4 Follow-Up – Geechs (7060 JP) – New Initiatives Aimed at Achieving Operating Profit…

On May 14, 2025, Geechs Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) announced its full-year FY2025/3 earnings results.
Net sales rose 6% YoY to JPY 25,162 mn, EBITDA rose 73% YoY to JPY 625 mn, and operating profit rose 445% YoY to JPY 495 mn.
The IT Human Resources Matching Business, Overseas (hereafter, “Overseas IT HRM Biz”) continued to face challenges owing to local market conditions, but the core IT Human Resources Matching Business, Japan (hereafter, “Japan IT HRM Biz”) expanded steadily and profitability continued to improve in the Seed Tech business.

Q2 Follow-Up – Lifull (2120 JP) – HOME’S Services Segment Delivers Steady Performance

In H1 FY2025/9, LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported net sales of JPY 14,291 mn, up 7.6% YoY and operating profit of JPY 1,824 mn, up 6.2% YoY .
Operating profit effectively rose 2.2x YoY, adjusting for the gain on the sale of LIFULL SPACE recorded in FY2024/9.
In the core HOME’S Services segment, the Company’s client network increased 2.0% YoY as a result of stronger sales efforts.

OK Super: Disrupting Kansai Supermarket Sector

By Michael Causton

Deep discounter OK Super’s entry into the Kansai market is causing local competitors real headaches –one estimate says it has taken 10% share around its first store already.
OK has exposed just how derivative most existing chains have become and, with the introduction of genuine price competition at a time when consumers are increasingly price sensitive
While OK Super is a private company, some of the competitors are listed like Kansai Food Market who, without new ideas, will suffer in the next three years.

Q3 Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP) – Favorable External Conditions Likely to Continue in FY2026

FY2025/5 Q3 Results｜On April 10, 2025, OHBA (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3 FY2025/5 results.
Due to the seasonal nature of its business, which tends to concentrate earnings in Q4, progress rates toward the full-year plan appear low at first glance, with net sales at 68.6% and operating profit at 62.3%.
However, SIR believes the Company is steadily progressing toward achieving its full-year targets of 6.1% YoY sales growth and 5.8% YoY operating profit growth.

Q4 Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – An Increase in Dividend Payment…

COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) announced the full year results for FY2025/3 after the market close on Thursday, May 15, 2025.
The key consolidated figures are net sales of JPY 30,015 mn (+24.6% YoY), gross profit of JPY 8,308 mn (+22.6% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,763 mn (+29.1% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 1,820 mn (+24.4% YoY).
COPRO Construction. Co., Ltd. (hereafter, COPRO CN), which operates the Company‘s core business of construction technician dispatching contributed significantly to results of strong growth due to record recruiting.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief China: BYD, ENN Energy, CaoCao, Melco International Development, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Xiaomi Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain
ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present
Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights
StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025
Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.
Xiaomi (1810 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain

By Ming Lu

BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present

On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent

Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued

By Nicholas Tan

CaoCao (2643 HK) is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance

By Nico Rosti

As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.

CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall

Melco International Development (200 HK)‘s fully-paid rights shares commence trading today. Melco is down just ~14% since announcing a one-for-two rights issue; and 13% above the TERP.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.

By Devi Subhakesan

Foshan Haitian has priced its Hong Kong offer at the top end (HKD36.3/share) and upsized it to 279 million shares, raising a strong HKD10.1 billion (USD1.3 billion).
With a massive 696x oversubscription and nearly half the deal secured by cornerstone investors, the stock could see a lively debut when it lists on June 19th.
We believe Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) lacks a clear catalyst for growth and hence the growth expectations built into its Hong Kong pricing may prove difficult to materialise.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Popular Strategies: Diagonal Spreads account for 27%of all strategies. This versatile strategy allows for many different profiles in terms of upfront premium (positive or negative), and time horizon.
This Insight of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

On 17 June, Bloomberg reported that Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company has raised HK$10.1 billion after a strong remand for its shares to be listed in Hong Kong.
We estimate the company to generate revenue of 29.4 billion RMB (up 9.2% YoY) and net profit of 6.8 billion RMB (up 7.1% YoY) in 2025.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Foshan Haitian is undervalued. Our base case valuation suggests implied market cap of 286 billion CNY, which represents 25% higher than current levels.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Hindustan Zinc, LIC Housing Finance, Biocon Biologics India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push
LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push

By Rahul Jain

HZL has approved a ₹12,000 crore investment to set up a 250 KTPA integrated zinc smelter at Debari as part of its 2x capacity expansion plan.
While smelting investments are not inherently value-accretive due to low TCs, they are necessary to process captive ore and minimize logistics costs.
The overall growth outlook remains strong, but the pending mine lease expiries by 2030 pose a material long-term risk.

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY.
NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Biocon Biologics, Tata Motors, ReNew Energy
US treasury yields rose for a second day, with the curve steepening despite good overall demand for an auction of 20Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.97%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 5 bps at 4.45%.
Equities advanced on news that Iran was asking Gulf states to mediate a ceasefire with Israel. The S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 6,033, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 19,701.

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Jun 17

Most Read: Santos Ltd, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, CGN Mining, Hyundai Rotem Company, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Wanguo International Mining, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, Nakano Refrigerators and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar
Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers
Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$12.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping
Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP): Marunouchi Capital’s JPY7,900 Tender Offer

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle
The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share.
Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”

By Travis Lundy

AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers

By Travis Lundy

Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks.
The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life.
There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$12.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping

There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP): Marunouchi Capital’s JPY7,900 Tender Offer

By Arun George

Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Marunouchi Capital at JPY7,900, a 35.0% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
An attractive offer and irrevocables (33.19% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 17 June to 29 July.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief ESG: Many Companies Are in Stage of Setting Caps to Ensure that Cash on Hand Grows No More than Necessary and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Many Companies Are in Stage of Setting Caps to Ensure that Cash on Hand Grows No More than Necessary

Many Companies Are in Stage of Setting Caps to Ensure that Cash on Hand Grows No More than Necessary

By Aki Matsumoto

Improvements in OP margin and Sales/Total Assets have been slow to improve ROE. More companies are including DOE in their dividend policy against the backdrop of increasing cash on hand.
With costs expected to increase amid rising prices, sales and gross margins need to be raised, and therefore the component costs of investment and high-margin operations need to be raised.
Restructuring the business portfolio later to determine cash allocation will not result in effective investment and must result in limited improvement in profit margins on sales.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Ease and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Ease
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran’s Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire
Monday Delight: 16/06/25
#162 India Insights: Tata Chips Push, NSDL IPO, Jio BlackRock Gets SEBI Nod, New CEO Named
Charted Insights : India’s Corporate Profit-To-GDP Ratio: A Structural Shift

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks rebounded Monday as geopolitical tensions eased, with the Dow rising over 300 points, the S&P 500 gaining nearly 1%
AMD (+8.8%), CoreWeave (+7.8%), and Teradyne (+5.5%) advanced, while Lockheed Martin (-4%), Northrop (-3.8%) and L3Harris (-3.6%) declined
NTT DoCoMo will acquire a 47% stake in CARTA HOLDINGS, a Dentsu Group subsidiary, for 25 billion yen via a tender offer

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Seeing Iran’s Potential Demise as Fuel to Risk-On Fire

By Andrew Jackson

Big gains for AMD with analysts more upbeat than last weeks reaction to its AI conference suggests.
Advantest 9.6% yesterday on broker comments should see market hunting for laggards such as Kokusai Electric.
Estee lauder seeing an uptick in China may help beleaguered Shiseido and Kose move higher.

Monday Delight: 16/06/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

#162 India Insights: Tata Chips Push, NSDL IPO, Jio BlackRock Gets SEBI Nod, New CEO Named

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Electronics sends hundreds to Taiwan for semiconductor training, fast-tracking India’s fab ambitions with skilled talent, global leadership, and a ₹1.2 lakh crore investment plan.
NSDL plans a $400M IPO in July, with 50.1M shares offered by SBI, NSE, and IDBI Bank marking a key milestone in India’s financial infrastructure story.
Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) BlackRock has secured SEBI approval to operate as investment adviser, advancing its digital-first wealth platform and appointing Marc Pilgrem as CEO of the advisory arm.

Charted Insights : India’s Corporate Profit-To-GDP Ratio: A Structural Shift

By Sudarshan Bhandari

India’s corporate profit-to-GDP ratio held steady at a 17-year high of 4.7% in FY25 for the Nifty-500 universe, reflecting a healthy 10.5% YoY PAT growth
While the world grapples with geopolitical challenges, India’s macroeconomic indicators- including strong GDP growth, a stable currency, and moderating inflation and interest rates – present a contrasting and resilient picture.
India Inc is entering again the faster earnings growth cycle than GDP growth, currently growing at 3x of broder economic growth.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief ECM: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview
Challenger Limited Placement: TAL Dai-Ichi Bidding Higher, Apollo Overhang Gone
Foshan Haitian HK Offer: Pantry Staples at Pricey Valuations. Key Facts, Financials & More
FWD IPO: What Are We Buying?
Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt
Bayzed Health Group IPO: Shows Flare; Still a Tough Road Ahead; Can Avoid The Issue
Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Outlook Has Changed
Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Florida Based Insurer Looking to Ride the Tailwinds of Sector
TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) IPO: Uniqueness of Lead Candidate Provides Comfort for Long-Term
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Price Bumped Higher, Intersection of Cancer and AI in High Demand

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company is the largest listed condiments producer in mainland China which is seeking to raise up to HK$9.56 billion (US$1.22 billion) in Hong Kong listing.
It is offering 263.2 million shares at HK$35 to HK$36.30 each. The final offer price is expected to be announced on 17 June.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food is the largest condiments company in China with strong brand power with loyal customers.

Challenger Limited Placement: TAL Dai-Ichi Bidding Higher, Apollo Overhang Gone

By Nicholas Tan

AP Liberty (Apollo) is looking to raise US$170m from selling out its stake in Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) .
This selldown comes on the heels of a previous selldown in September 2024 ; Apollo is conducting a clean-up sale now.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Foshan Haitian HK Offer: Pantry Staples at Pricey Valuations. Key Facts, Financials & More

By Devi Subhakesan

Foshan Haitian, already listed in Shanghai, is offering 263.2 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD9.56 billion (USD1.22 billion); Final offer price will be set by today.
HK offer price is pitched at an appealing 19%–22% discount to its A-share close, however valuations are pricing in growth expectations that may not align with the underlying business dynamics.
Foshan Haitian operates in the condiments and sauces segment—a mature, saturated and competitive market with limited room for meaningful margin or volume expansion.

FWD IPO: What Are We Buying?

By Alec Tseung

While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn’t differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.
Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.
We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD’s valuation is really attractive. It’s also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.

Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt

By Akshat Shah

Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) Biocon Ltd is looking to raise up to US$522m in its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
The deal is well flagged, having gone through rounds of board/shareholder approvals. The QIP has also been covered by domestic media reports.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Bayzed Health Group IPO: Shows Flare; Still a Tough Road Ahead; Can Avoid The Issue

By Tina Banerjee

Bayzed Health Group (BHG HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$ 900 million. The company plans to sell 133 million shares at HK$4.22–6.75 per share.
The company plans to utilize the IPO proceeds to continuously strengthening the full-cycle oncology healthcare services primarily through purchasing medical equipment and recruiting medical professionals.
Bayzed Health is an oncology healthcare group which posted revenue of RMB 1,189 million in 2024, up by 11% YoY. Gross margins improve; net losses narrow too.

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Outlook Has Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and “get involved directly” in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there’re “reusable aspects” in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from “scale effect”.So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty’s net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.

Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Florida Based Insurer Looking to Ride the Tailwinds of Sector

By IPO Boutique

According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with good diversification from long-only accounts.
Looking at the financial metrics of this company, they wrote premiums of $1.33b in 2024 which was a 52.5% increase from 2023.
The success of the insurance sector as a whole including the strong performance of Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC US) last week will only further enhance the optics of this IPO.

TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) IPO: Uniqueness of Lead Candidate Provides Comfort for Long-Term

By Tina Banerjee

TransThera Sciences, a clinical-stage biopharma, filed to list on HK. The company aims to raise HK$200M by offering 15M shares. The offer price is set at HK$13.15 ($1.7) per share.
The IPO opened on June 13 and closes on June 18. Allocations are expected on June 20, while trading is anticipated to commence on June 23.
The company intends to use the IPO proceeds to fund the research and development of core product candidate, Tinengotinib for various types of solid tumors.

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Price Bumped Higher, Intersection of Cancer and AI in High Demand

By IPO Boutique

Caris Life Sciences increased the price range on its IPO on Monday ahead of a Wednesday scheduled debut.
According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with a mix of new and existing investors. There are multiple mutual-fund anchor orders in the book.
Given how important this company’s technology is to the cancer arena and the revenue growth that is “ramping” into the IPO, we like the risk-reward profile of this deal.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Industrials: Nakano Refrigerators, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Tourism Holdings, PostNL NV, Base Oil, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Timee Inc, Petards Group, Lifco and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP): Marunouchi Capital’s JPY7,900 Tender Offer
Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) & Sanhua (2050 HK): IPO Float Caps Limit Global Index Inclusion
BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut
What’s News in Amsterdam – 16 June 2025 (PostNL)
Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities – What We Do
STI Banks Lead Weekly Buyback Consideration Tally
Timee 2Q Results: Revenue Decline Is Only Temporary
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 09/06/2025
Lifco AB: Niche Empire Thrives on Operational Discipline & Market Diversification!

Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP): Marunouchi Capital’s JPY7,900 Tender Offer

By Arun George

Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Marunouchi Capital at JPY7,900, a 35.0% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
An attractive offer and irrevocables (33.19% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 17 June to 29 July.

Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) & Sanhua (2050 HK): IPO Float Caps Limit Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) and Sanhua (2050 HK) are forecasted to be added to Global All-World at the December 2025 review.
Both securities are unlikely to meet the Global Standard float cap threshold before or after the lock-up expiry, based on the maximum offer price.
Sanhua (2050 HK) has a better chance of inclusion to Global Standard at the February 2026 review following the lock-up expiry as its float cap is closer to the threshold.

BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut