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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 30
0

Daily Brief China: China Boqi Environmental Hol, Baidu, Agora Inc., Shui On Land, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: No Respite in Going Ex-Growth
  • Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. To avoid an MGO, this requires a whitewash waiver
  • The Offer Doc is now out. The EGM – and the first close – is the 20th December. 

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: No Respite in Going Ex-Growth

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 4.6% and 66% vs. our estimate and in-line, 8.7% and 46% vs. consensus.
  • Ads revenue declined and C4Q24 guidance was below expectations. Margin improvement was mainly achieved through personnel cuts, which we think is not sustainable. AI didn’t contribute materially to revenues;
  • We see no return to growth from any of the business lines. We keep our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$84 to US$78.

Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

By Andy Fu, CFA

  • Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;
  • With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora’s operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;
  • Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land
  • The US market was closed for Thanksgiving yesterday.
  • The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on the sale of semiconductor and AI memory chips to China, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

By Arusha Das

  • Inventory lowest in 13th months
  • Arbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubber
  • Frontloading resulted in spike in exports

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Japan: WealthNavi, Dai Nippon Printing, Ana Holdings, Raccoon Holdings, Inc., Restar Holdings Corporation, Toyobo Co Ltd, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)
  • Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) – The First Equity Offering by Cross-Holders – Small And Lots More To Go
  • Dai Nippon Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks
  • Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update
  • Restar (3156) – Market Challenges but Maintaining Growth Direction
  • Toyobo (3101) – Signs of Recovery in Profitability on the Back of Improving Operating Environment
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up

Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)

By Travis Lundy

  • Early this morning, a Nikkei article said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would buy out the remaining 85% of WealthNavi (7342 JP). Expected to be completed by March.
  • MUFJ Bank and WealthNavi signed a Business Alliance in February. WealthNavi issued 9.11mm new shares to MUFJ at ¥1,718/share. That was a discount to market and shares are down ~40%.
  • WealthNavi’s AUM is growing (¥1.3trln at end-Oct) and the goal is to launch a money advisory platform by FY2026. Now they need to decide on the premium.

Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) – The First Equity Offering by Cross-Holders – Small And Lots More To Go

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP) announced 16 corporate and financial entities would be selling cross-held shares in a ~US$240mm equity offering.
  • The stock has gotten shellacked (relatively speaking given structurally low volatility) since three weeks ago. There’s a reason for that. But it makes it cheaper. 
  • This offering is only 10% of the cross-held total. There’s more to come. But there is more outbound cross-holding to sell too. There’s value here.

Dai Nippon Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$214m from selling their respective stakes in Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-November 2024.

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 8.3% YoY, with the EC business rising 7.0% and the Financial business 10.0%.
  • Operating profit rose 89.9% YoY, driven by reduced advertising expenses and a decline in SG&A expenses.
  • Financial business segment profit increased 48.9% YoY, with external payments handled growing 13.0% YoY to JPY20.1bn.

Restar (3156) – Market Challenges but Maintaining Growth Direction

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Some speed bumps at the Device segment – Continuing positive demand from the smartphone sector and sustained growth at the Eco-Solution segment were overshadowed by a loss in earnings momentum at the Devices segment in Q1-2 FY3/25.
  • The recovery in demand from the industrial sector remains delayed, together with a sales mix lowering gross margins and FX impact contributing to overall OP falling 3.8% YoY, despite 11.3% sales growth driven primarily by acquisitive growth.
  • The current outlook for H2 FY3/25 is assisted by the weak Japanese yen, acquisitive growth, and we expect to see a continuation of the positive demand themes from smartphone and alternative energy.

Toyobo (3101) – Signs of Recovery in Profitability on the Back of Improving Operating Environment

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Positive trajectory – Q2FY3/25 results continued to show signs of recovery in margins (2.4% Q2 FY3/24, 3.7% Q2 FY3/25), reflecting price hikes, volume expansion, and cost reduction.
  • By segment, Films was the largest contributor to OP growth (+686.5% YoY), followed by Environmental and Functional Materials (+102.1%).
  • Strong OP growth attributed to moderating cost pressures, and improving demand, which has led to unit price hikes without sacrificing volume. 

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • For H-1337, DWTI completed dosing of subjects in the Phase IIb clinical trial in August, and top-line data was announced on November 18.
  • All three doses of H- 1337 achieved clinically and statistically significant decreases of up to 30% in intraocular pressure (IOP) which was in the same range as the positive control, existing beta-blocker timolol (p <0.001), and DWTI expects H-1337 will proceed to Phase 3 study based on these results (see P10 for details).
  • For DWR-2206, DWTI submitted a notification of clinical trial plan for domestic Phase II clinical trials to the PMDA in March, and the transplant for the first subject was performed in July.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief India: Page Industries, Vodafone Idea , Indusind Bank, Saatvik Energy Green Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail
  • Vodafone Idea: A Lifeline or a False Dawn?
  • Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head
  • Satvik Green Energy Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail

By Pranav Bhavsar

Vodafone Idea: A Lifeline or a False Dawn?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) gains a lifeline with the waiver of Rs. 24,700 crore bank guarantees for pre-2022 spectrum acquisitions.
  • The waiver eases financial strain, boosts cash flow, and enables critical investments in 4G and 5G upgrades amidst competition from Reliance Industries (RIL IN)‘s Jio and Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN).
  • While a positive step, Vi’s recovery depends on fundraising, reducing debt, and regaining market share, making its turnaround uncertain but slightly more plausible.

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
  • Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
  • Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.

Satvik Green Energy Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Saatvik Energy Green Ltd (1637892D IN)  is planning to raise about US$136m through its upcoming IPO in India. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Dam Capital, Ambit, Motilal Oswal.
  • Saatvik Green Energy Ltd (SEG) specializes in the manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and provides comprehensive engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services.
  • As per Crisil report, since its inception, the company has supplied over 1.5 GW of high-efficiency solar PV modules to both domestic and international markets.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief ECM: Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) – The First Equity Offering by Cross-Holders – Small And Lots More To Go and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) – The First Equity Offering by Cross-Holders – Small And Lots More To Go
  • Dai Nippon Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance
  • Satvik Green Energy Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) – The First Equity Offering by Cross-Holders – Small And Lots More To Go

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP) announced 16 corporate and financial entities would be selling cross-held shares in a ~US$240mm equity offering.
  • The stock has gotten shellacked (relatively speaking given structurally low volatility) since three weeks ago. There’s a reason for that. But it makes it cheaper. 
  • This offering is only 10% of the cross-held total. There’s more to come. But there is more outbound cross-holding to sell too. There’s value here.

Dai Nippon Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$214m from selling their respective stakes in Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Satvik Green Energy Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Saatvik Energy Green Ltd (1637892D IN)  is planning to raise about US$136m through its upcoming IPO in India. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Dam Capital, Ambit, Motilal Oswal.
  • Saatvik Green Energy Ltd (SEG) specializes in the manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and provides comprehensive engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services.
  • As per Crisil report, since its inception, the company has supplied over 1.5 GW of high-efficiency solar PV modules to both domestic and international markets.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms
  • Thematic Report: Indian Capex Cycle Analysis- A Macro Perspective
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 29/11/2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/9863 HK/ZK US/JD US/Macro News
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/1024 HK/BIDU US/BABA US/KC US
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 28 November
  • What’s New(S) In Amsterdam – 29 November

Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

By Pyari Menon

  • Deregulation’s Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.
  • Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.
  • Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.

Thematic Report: Indian Capex Cycle Analysis- A Macro Perspective

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Listed corporate capex is experiencing a surge, exceeding the previous cycle peak and mirroring the pre-boom phase of 2001-2004.
  • Government capex is poised to accelerate, particularly in the second half of FY25, fuelled by election-related spending patterns.
  • India’s investment rate is nearing a decadal high, reflecting a strong appetite for capital expenditure across various sectors.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 29/11/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation.
  • Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces.
  • Gas was initially observed at surface.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/9863 HK/ZK US/JD US/Macro News

By Eric Wen

  • LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/9863 HK/ZK US:In the 47th week of new energy vehicles, LI and BYD were impacted by new new forces. (////////////)
  • 1211 HK:BYD Requests Suppliers to Reduce Prices by 10% in 2025.(+)
  • 1810 HK/JD US: Jiangsu Province Expands Consumer Subsidy Scope, Adding 27 Product Categories Including Mobile Phones and Laptops.(+/+)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/1024 HK/BIDU US/BABA US/KC US

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US: NetEase Denies Full Staff Layoff at Shenzhen Game Division, Clarifies It’s a Product-Specific Adjustment (/)
  • NTES US: NetEase officially Named Their Urban Open-World RPG <Project Mugen> as <Ananta> (+)
  • NTES US: NTES US: NetEase Closes Overseas Studio “Worlds Untold” (/)

What’s News in Amsterdam – 28 November

By The IDEA!

  • Following a review, Just Eat TakeAway.com (“JET”) has decided to delist its shares from the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
  • This in order to reduce administrative complexity, costs, and address low liquidity and trading volumes.
  • The company has requested the FCA to cancel its LSE listing and the LSE to remove the shares from trading.

What’s New(S) In Amsterdam – 29 November

By The IDEA!

  • InPost | Allegro signs 5 years’ contract with DHL as an Allegro Delivery service partner
  • Yesterday, Allegro announced to have signed a contract with DHL Poland extending the cooperation between the two companies that has been in place since 2022.
  • The new agreement covers 1. Deliveries via DHL’s out-of-home network of automated parcel machines (“APMs”) and pickup drop-off points (“PUDOs”)

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land
  • The US market was closed for Thanksgiving yesterday.
  • The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on the sale of semiconductor and AI memory chips to China, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)
  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks
  • Ecopro BM’s KOSPI Move: Trade LS Marine Solution & Green Cross for the Real Play
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 52 Companies in Korea in December 2024

Nikkei: MUFG To Launch TOB on WealthNavi (7342)

By Travis Lundy

  • Early this morning, a Nikkei article said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would buy out the remaining 85% of WealthNavi (7342 JP). Expected to be completed by March.
  • MUFJ Bank and WealthNavi signed a Business Alliance in February. WealthNavi issued 9.11mm new shares to MUFJ at ¥1,718/share. That was a discount to market and shares are down ~40%.
  • WealthNavi’s AUM is growing (¥1.3trln at end-Oct) and the goal is to launch a money advisory platform by FY2026. Now they need to decide on the premium.

Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer Now Open. But First The EGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23rd October, flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. To avoid an MGO, this requires a whitewash waiver
  • The Offer Doc is now out. The EGM – and the first close – is the 20th December. 

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-November 2024.

Ecopro BM’s KOSPI Move: Trade LS Marine Solution & Green Cross for the Real Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Ecopro BM’s still hot trading volume might minimize passive impact. The real action is who replaces it in KOSDAQ 150 and which KOSPI 200 stock gets the boot.
  • LS Marine Solution joins KOSDAQ 150, while Green Cross Holdings gets the boot due to the lowest average daily market cap from May 1 to October 31.
  • KRX fast-tracks approvals for financially strong companies in 20 trading days. Ecopro BM likely qualifies, meaning approval could come before Christmas—ideal timing for entry.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 52 Companies in Korea in December 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 52 stocks in Korea in December 2024, among which two are in KOSPI and 50 are in KOSDAQ.
  • Hese 52 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market.
  • The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in December are Jeju Air, LS Materials, and Toolgen.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail
  • Vodafone Idea: A Lifeline or a False Dawn?
  • Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6 AU): Well-Funded, Pipeline Progressing Well, Growth Prospects Galore
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: No Respite in Going Ex-Growth
  • BQE: Q3 Largely Surpasses Expectations; Increasing Target Price
  • Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head
  • Matt Warder & Koala Unpack Peabody’s $3B+ Coal Deal
  • Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) – Friday, Aug 30, 2024
  • Inside NVIDIA’s $35 Billion Quarter: Can AI and Hopper Tech Keep the Momentum? – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Nov-2024): Qualcomm-Intel deal talk ends.

Top Ideas in Apparel & Fashion Retail

By Pranav Bhavsar

Vodafone Idea: A Lifeline or a False Dawn?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) gains a lifeline with the waiver of Rs. 24,700 crore bank guarantees for pre-2022 spectrum acquisitions.
  • The waiver eases financial strain, boosts cash flow, and enables critical investments in 4G and 5G upgrades amidst competition from Reliance Industries (RIL IN)‘s Jio and Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN).
  • While a positive step, Vi’s recovery depends on fundraising, reducing debt, and regaining market share, making its turnaround uncertain but slightly more plausible.

Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6 AU): Well-Funded, Pipeline Progressing Well, Growth Prospects Galore

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) announced that two participants have been dosed with 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA and imaged days after the commencement of the Co-PSMA Investigator-Initiated Trial (IIT).
  • SARTATE completes final assessment in Phase II diagnostic trial for neuroendocrine tumours. SAR-Bombesin began trial for castrate resistant prostate cancer.
  • Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline, and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represent an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$78) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: No Respite in Going Ex-Growth

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 4.6% and 66% vs. our estimate and in-line, 8.7% and 46% vs. consensus.
  • Ads revenue declined and C4Q24 guidance was below expectations. Margin improvement was mainly achieved through personnel cuts, which we think is not sustainable. AI didn’t contribute materially to revenues;
  • We see no return to growth from any of the business lines. We keep our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$84 to US$78.

BQE: Q3 Largely Surpasses Expectations; Increasing Target Price

By Atrium Research

  • BQE posted excellent Q3 financials that beat our expectations across the board as operations services continued its growth trajectory and the technical services and China JV segments reverted to historical levels.
  • Proportional revenue came in at $10.2M (+28% YoY) vs. our estimate of $8.6M and Adj. EBITDA came in at $4.6M (+67% YoY) vs. our $2.7M.
  • Management expects continued strong performance from the technical services segment through Q4/24 and Q1/25.

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance – A Rocky Road Head

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
  • Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
  • Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.

Matt Warder & Koala Unpack Peabody’s $3B+ Coal Deal

By Money of Mine

  • WA government announces $150 million package for lithium miners, including waiving government fees for two years
  • Package also includes a $50 million loan facility for interest-free loans to sustain operations
  • While the news did not significantly impact stock prices, it provides some relief and support for struggling lithium companies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) – Friday, Aug 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investment thesis recommends shorting Shake Shack due to declining traffic, comp growth, and new unit productivity
  • Stock price has surged despite challenges, trading at over 100x earnings
  • Uncertain outlook with activist investor no longer involved and unique smashburger being commoditized, raising doubts about sustainability of growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Inside NVIDIA’s $35 Billion Quarter: Can AI and Hopper Tech Keep the Momentum? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings result and call for NVIDIA Corporation (NVIDIA) indicate a period of remarkable growth and robust financial performance driven primarily by the adoption of its AI technologies and data center products.
  • NVIDIA reported record revenue of $35.1 billion, which represents a 17% sequential increase and a striking 94% year-over-year growth, surpassing its revenue outlook of $32.5 billion.
  • This growth spanned all market platforms, particularly fueled by the increasing demand for NVIDIA’s accelerated computing and AI solutions.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Nov-2024): Qualcomm-Intel deal talk ends.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Speculation of a Qualcomm-Intel deal diminishes, while Japan boosts semiconductor subsidies to benefit Rapidus, with further support anticipated.
  • China’s semiconductor industry growth poses a threat to South Korean companies, prompting Samsung to weigh integration of ChatGPT, sparking concerns over its Google partnership.
  • Hiwin bolsters its robotics presence by partnering with Boston Dynamics, expanding its influence in the industry, as India eyes doubling 5G subscriptions by 2030.

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Nov 30
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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA
  • Exploring Base’s Role in the Growing Onchain Economy

Crypto Moves #54 – While Everyone Looks at Donald Trump, No One Considers the EU’s MiCA

By Mads Eberhardt

  • President-elect Donald Trump has become a prominent figure with the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of his ambitious vision to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” This outlook is undoubtedly positive, as the United States holds the title of the largest capital market globally and wields significant influence on the international stage.
  • However, many in the crypto market appear to overlook another highly encouraging regulatory development.
  • This involves the European Union’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, which will be fully implemented across EU member states on December 30th.

Exploring Base’s Role in the Growing Onchain Economy

By Delphi Digital

  • The onchain economy has experienced unprecedented growth in 2024, with a 70% increase in total value locked (TVL) across major networks, surpassing $70 billion.
  • Key drivers include the adoption of stablecoins, Layer 2 solutions, gaming, collectibles, and institutional interest.
  • Base, an Ethereum Layer 2 incubated by Coinbase, stands out with 1,600% growth in daily transactions and a 470% rise in TVL since January.

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Nov 30
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Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!
  • EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for 2025
  • Global FX Volatility Outlook 2025
  • Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper
  • ECB Gradualism Secured By Reflation
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 29 Nov 2024
  • Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand
  • HEW: Euro Doves Face Reality
  • CX Daily: Warming Climate Threatens Chinese Farmers’ Livelihoods

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!

By Andreas Steno

  • Main point: The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus EUR/GBP rates, higher USD vs. peers, and higher US equity returns compared to Europe/Asia.
  • The risk/reward of taking the opposite bet is starting to look appetizing.

  • We have been looking at the explosive increase in US equity positioning for a while, as multiple indicators show that equities are reaching stretched points positioning-wise — CFTC positioning among asset managers skyrocketing, our own data showing increased positioning in US vs. the rest of the world, and surveys starting to indicate that everyone is expecting equities to crawl higher.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for 2025

By At Any Rate

  • US election outcome and policy proposals causing challenges for emerging markets in 2025
  • Expectations for US exceptionalism and potential insularity affecting global trade and growth
  • Potential impacts on inflation, monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and investment environment for EM fixed income in 2025, with short-term opportunities amidst uncertainties.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Volatility Outlook 2025

By At Any Rate

  • DXY strength through 1Q25 predicted with positive volatility
  • Dollar correlations expected to remain firm, with potential pockets of soft cross correlations
  • Systematic FX adoptions models highlight opportunities in FX carry via options, short volume strategy, volume reversal model, and volcurve model for 2025

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper

By Sameer Taneja

  • As part of our series of initiations on copper stocks, Lundin Mining (LUN CN) is another play with a cheaper multiple than Southern Copper (SCCO US) but an inferior ROCE.
  • With its most recent acquisition of the Jose Maria copper project in a 50:50 JV with BHP, the mid-size copper-producing company is on its way to growth after 2027.
  • Trading at 17x FY25e and 5.0x EV-EBITDA, this is another company in our stable worth exploring. 

ECB Gradualism Secured By Reflation

By Phil Rush

  • Euro area inflation increased by another 0.3pp in November to 2.3% y-o-y. Headline surprises were small and balanced, but the resilience doesn’t fit dovish pricing.
  • Core and services price inflation rates were little changed at above-target levels. They will likely rise again in December and stay too high throughout 2025.
  • The ECB believes policy is tight and demand is too weak, allowing it to cut again in December. Gradualism is required to avoid over-easing amid ongoing data resilience.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 29 Nov 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Korea’s Economic Struggles: Bank of Korea delivered a modest 25 basis point rate cut amid weak GDP growth, falling consumer prices, and high household and corporate debt.

  • Economic Indicators: Korea’s GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.2%, significantly below the pre-COVID average of 2.9%.

  • Rate Cut Outlook: Additional rate cuts are anticipated in early 2025, aiming to drive an investment-led recovery and address economic challenges.

Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

By Arusha Das

  • Inventory lowest in 13th months
  • Arbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubber
  • Frontloading resulted in spike in exports

HEW: Euro Doves Face Reality

By Phil Rush

  • Euro area inflation and activity data indicate a need for careful ECB easing. The wide pricing of monetary policy divergence is excessively depressing EURUSD. Schnable’s guidance aligns with contrarian pushback.
  • The upcoming week’s calendar is relatively quiet before the usual pre-Christmas rush.
  • US nonfarm payrolls are the key highlight, with an expected soft rebound that may lead the Fed to cut by 25bp in December.

CX Daily: Warming Climate Threatens Chinese Farmers’ Livelihoods

By Caixin Global

  • Agriculture / In Depth: Warming climate threatens Chinese farmers’ livelihoods After the Mid-Autumn Festival celebrations ended in Huma, a county at the northern reaches of Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, farmer Xu Xiujian began harvesting his soybean crop.
  • He had planted earlier than usual this year, in line with the spring rains, which had come early in mid-April.
  • Xu’s case, while seemingly unremarkable on its own, reflects a much larger shift happening in China’s climate and the impact it is having on the country’s agricultural industry.

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