Smartkarma Daily Briefs

De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Resources ETF (MVR AU) in December.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.4% and in a round-trip trade of A$63m.
De Grey Mining will be acquired by Northern Star Resources in the first half of 2025. The passive buying could push De Grey Mining higher in the short-term.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) in December.
The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.
Shorts have increased in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes

The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 20 December. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$17m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
The largest inflows are in Charter Hall, Gpt Group, Dexus Property and Region RE while the largest outflows will be from Goodman Group, Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

[Quiddity Index] MV Australia Equal Weight Dec 24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Australia Equal Weight Index represents the performance of large, liquid companies incorporated in Australia and listed on the ASX.
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is an ADD for the December 2024 review, with no other changes to the index.
We expect a one-way flow of $US90mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.5%.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung C&T, LG CNS and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade
LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case

Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade

The Dems are serious about the Commercial Act amendment, with Lee Jae-myung personally attending the policy forum to pitch the change directly to key business players.
Key takeaways: expanding directors’ fiduciary duties to all shareholders and mandatory cumulative voting, which could empower minority shareholders and reignite value-up policies in Korean companies.
The Dems plan to fast-track the Commercial Act amendment by year-end, with implementation likely by Q2 next year, boosting market moves and reigniting the value-up trade ahead of May’s election.

LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief United States: Advanced Micro Devices, Intel Corp, Copper and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations
Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.

Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates

By William Keating

Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

By Sameer Taneja

China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

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Dec 16

Daily Brief China: ESR Group , Fosun Tourism, Beijing Capital Grand, Hang Seng Index, Dobot, China Tobacco International (HK), Baidu, KE Holdings , Mao Geping Cosmetics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) – ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks
Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Good Enough
Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 January
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades, Soaring with the Iron Condor
Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics
China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation
Beijing Capital (1329 HK): Done Deal As Shareholder Vote On 10th Jan
China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,
KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers
ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) – ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP), Nishimoto (9260 JP).

Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Good Enough

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Tourism has emerged from its difficulties and started an upward trend.If it remains listed, it’s only a matter of time before its share price returns to the IPO price.
Temasek was once in talks to buy a minority stake in Club Med from Fosun International for €500 million, based on which reasonable valuation for Fosun Tourism is RMB12.6 billion.
Fosun has continued its style- When performance recovery hasn’t been reflected in stock price, it’s the right time to privatize valuable assets at cheap price. A share alternative is expected.

Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 January

Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)’s IFA opines that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK)’s HK$0.85 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 January.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
The Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers, which hold a blocking stake, should support the transaction. At the last close and for the 6 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/22.2%.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades, Soaring with the Iron Condor

By Gaudenz Schneider

This Insight analyzes Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) tailor-made option strategies traded between December 9-13, covering strategy analysis, trends, highlights, and volatility context.
Last week saw high activity with over 5,000 option contracts traded as combinations; the Iron Condor was notably popular, particularly on Monday and Tuesday.
The highest premium earned was for a January ’25 Iron Condor. The largest trade was a December ’24 Bull Call Spread, reflecting the popularity of bullish and long volatility strategies.

Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics

By Andrei Zakharov

Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.
Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.

China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Management of China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.
Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.
A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI’s strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually.

Beijing Capital (1329 HK): Done Deal As Shareholder Vote On 10th Jan

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 28th October, SOE Beijing Capital Group launched an Offer by way of a Scheme for Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China.
The Cancellation Price of HK$0.85/Share (best & final) was a 46.55% premium to undisturbed. Irrevocables were secured from 8.13% of the 37.92% held by disinterested shareholders. This looked done.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting to be held on the 10th Jan. Expected payment on or before the 6th Feb. IFA says fair & reasonable.

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

By Ming Lu

NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.

KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers

By Ming Lu

The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.
New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.
We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.

ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of offerings were live in India, in a bid to beat the year-end lull.
On the placements front, there was a large placement for SenseTime Group (20 HK) and a number of smaller deals in India.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions, KPIT Technologies, NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO: Superior Margins and Growth Warrants a Premium
KPIT Tech: Steady Q2FY25 Although Near-Term Outlook Is Uncertain
EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Markdown in Short-Dated IVs Overdone Given Upcoming FOMC Event Risk

Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks

By Gaudenz Schneider

A long-short strategy with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank Of India outperformed the NSE Nifty Bank Index by 2.1% from 21 November to present.
The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.
The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO: Superior Margins and Growth Warrants a Premium

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) is looking to raise up to US$295m in its upcoming India IPO.
It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss the industry growth, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

KPIT Tech: Steady Q2FY25 Although Near-Term Outlook Is Uncertain

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

KPIT Technologies (“KPIT”) reported a decent Q2FY25 with revenue growth of 20.1% YoY in constant currency (CC) terms. Growth came largely from Asia – Japan, Korea and India.
EBITDA margin has been steady at 20.5%+ and grew 27.7% YoY. This is despite the salary increments and one-time ESOP costs, which impacted the margin adversely by about 270bp.
KPIT has guided that FY25 revenue growth could be at the lower end of the guidance, however, profit margin is projected to be on the higher side led by offshoring.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Markdown in Short-Dated IVs Overdone Given Upcoming FOMC Event Risk

By Sankalp Singh

IVs guided lower as Inflation data furthers expectations of easier monetary policy. Weekly IVs lower by -3.3 vols, Monthly IVs lower by -1.6 vols & Quarterly IVs remained unaffected.
IV mark-down seems overdone given the heavy upcoming event-risk calendar. Weekly contracts capture the 18.12.2024 FOMC meeting.
Strategic Implications: (1) Consider Long Gamma positioning given upcoming event risk & IV markdown (2) Retain Short Vega allocations while Monthly IVs still above 10.5%.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief Japan: Nidec Corp, Freebit Co Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward
Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update
The Situation Is Different for REITs that Rely on Capital Increase, Despite the Same Low P/B Issue

Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

By Scott Foster

Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up.
Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year’s EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade.

Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): 1H FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY04/25, revenue, operating profit, and net income declined YoY, while recurring profit increased 2.1% YoY.
Excluding fiscal year-end changes, 1H FY04/25 revenue and operating profit grew 8.0% and 15.5% YoY, respectively.
Revenue and operating profit for 5G Homestyle services increased 5.8% and 25.7% YoY, excluding fiscal year-end impact.

The Situation Is Different for REITs that Rely on Capital Increase, Despite the Same Low P/B Issue

By Aki Matsumoto

Repurchasing investment units, increasing dividends through property sales, and increasing EPS through negative goodwill of M&A seem to be the share price raising measures necessary for capital increase for growth.
When increasing capital amid stagnated REIT stock prices, it’s questionable whether the picture that is drawn after capital increase is reasonable in the face of rising required returns by investors.
When the profitability of REIT investment companies is in question, it is not surprising that activist investors will focus on management issues, including cost of capital or corporate governance.

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Dec 16

Most Read: Perseus Mining, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Westgold Resources, ESR Group , Vulcan Energy Resources, Samsung C&T, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Mirvac Group, Fosun Tourism and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes
Yoon’s Impeachment Passed: Upcoming Schedule, Procedures, and Market Impact
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks
Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) – ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes
Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn
MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes
Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Good Enough

MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes

De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Resources ETF (MVR AU) in December.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.4% and in a round-trip trade of A$63m.
De Grey Mining will be acquired by Northern Star Resources in the first half of 2025. The passive buying could push De Grey Mining higher in the short-term.

Yoon’s Impeachment Passed: Upcoming Schedule, Procedures, and Market Impact

The impeachment motion against President Yoon passed in the South Korean National Assembly, clearing the two-thirds supermajority, and is now official.
For the impeachment to fail, four justices must oppose it—highly unlikely given the current setup. The odds are heavily in favor of the impeachment being upheld.
Corporate law reforms, driven by a likely Democratic Party takeover, could fuel value-up momentum and drive the local market, potentially sparking an unexpected rally through the May election.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) in December.
The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.
Shorts have increased in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) – ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP), Nishimoto (9260 JP).

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be deleted from the index.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.
The largest inflows will be in Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) and Tronox Holdings (TROX US).

Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade

The Dems are serious about the Commercial Act amendment, with Lee Jae-myung personally attending the policy forum to pitch the change directly to key business players.
Key takeaways: expanding directors’ fiduciary duties to all shareholders and mandatory cumulative voting, which could empower minority shareholders and reignite value-up policies in Korean companies.
The Dems plan to fast-track the Commercial Act amendment by year-end, with implementation likely by Q2 next year, boosting market moves and reigniting the value-up trade ahead of May’s election.

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs.

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes

The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 20 December. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$17m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
The largest inflows are in Charter Hall, Gpt Group, Dexus Property and Region RE while the largest outflows will be from Goodman Group, Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres.

Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Good Enough

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Tourism has emerged from its difficulties and started an upward trend.If it remains listed, it’s only a matter of time before its share price returns to the IPO price.
Temasek was once in talks to buy a minority stake in Club Med from Fosun International for €500 million, based on which reasonable valuation for Fosun Tourism is RMB12.6 billion.
Fosun has continued its style- When performance recovery hasn’t been reflected in stock price, it’s the right time to privatize valuable assets at cheap price. A share alternative is expected.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Perseus Mining, Westgold Resources, Beijing Capital Grand, Copper and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks
[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 January
Beijing Capital (1329 HK): Done Deal As Shareholder Vote On 10th Jan
Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes

De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Resources ETF (MVR AU) in December.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.4% and in a round-trip trade of A$63m.
De Grey Mining will be acquired by Northern Star Resources in the first half of 2025. The passive buying could push De Grey Mining higher in the short-term.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 January

Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)’s IFA opines that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK)’s HK$0.85 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 January.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
The Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers, which hold a blocking stake, should support the transaction. At the last close and for the 6 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/22.2%.

Beijing Capital (1329 HK): Done Deal As Shareholder Vote On 10th Jan

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 28th October, SOE Beijing Capital Group launched an Offer by way of a Scheme for Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China.
The Cancellation Price of HK$0.85/Share (best & final) was a 46.55% premium to undisturbed. Irrevocables were secured from 8.13% of the 37.92% held by disinterested shareholders. This looked done.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting to be held on the 10th Jan. Expected payment on or before the 6th Feb. IFA says fair & reasonable.

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

By Sameer Taneja

China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

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Dec 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Chemring Group PLC, Nidec Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade
[Quiddity Index] MVIS Global Defense Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade

The Dems are serious about the Commercial Act amendment, with Lee Jae-myung personally attending the policy forum to pitch the change directly to key business players.
Key takeaways: expanding directors’ fiduciary duties to all shareholders and mandatory cumulative voting, which could empower minority shareholders and reignite value-up policies in Korean companies.
The Dems plan to fast-track the Commercial Act amendment by year-end, with implementation likely by Q2 next year, boosting market moves and reigniting the value-up trade ahead of May’s election.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Global Defense Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
Amentum Holdings (AMTM US) is an ADD and Chemring Group PLC (CHG LN) is a DEL for the MV Global Defense Index in December 2024.
We expect a one-way flow of US$138mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 8.6%.

Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

By Scott Foster

Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up.
Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year’s EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Advanced Micro Devices, LG CNS, Hang Seng Index, Dobot, Intel Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn
[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations
LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades, Soaring with the Iron Condor
Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics
Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs.

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.

LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case