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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 25
0

Daily Brief ESG: Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer
  • It Is Not a Question of Whether Investment in Growth or Shareholder Return Is Better

Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer

By Tan Yee Peng

  • We analysed Sheng Siong’s success over the years to see what its secret sauce is and what made the retailer so successful.

  • It has punched its weight above its competitors with a set of strong financial metrics. Its ability to generate free cash flow and achieve a high return on equity are truly impressive.

  • However, Sheng Siong is at an inflection point now as its revenue and net profit have stagnated since the pandemic. 

It Is Not a Question of Whether Investment in Growth or Shareholder Return Is Better

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While the absolute amount of share repurchases has increased, many companies face challenges in using cash, given the slow growth in ROE and depth of equity capital over a decade.
  • While growth investment should increase corporate value, it’s important for managers to manage to earn returns commensurate with investment risk, and to return cash to shareholders without taking unnecessary risks.
  • The question is not whether investment in growth or shareholder return is better, but whether the company was managing its business in a shareholder-friendly manner.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies
  • India’s Hotel Boom: How Spiritual Travel and Smart Expansion Are Redefining Hospitality
  • #139 India Insight: Adani’s $10B AI Push, Flipkart’s Domicile Shift, Tesla To Cut Reliance On China?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce
  • RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis
  • Thematic Report: All You Need to Know About Fluorination Industry in India
  • Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Melt up with Smaller Cap SPE and Power/Analog Names in Focus
  • Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/Macro
  • #140 India Insight: IMF Trims FY26 Growth to 6.2%, Rapeseed Opportunity, IndusInd Audits MFI Gap

Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks surged Thursday, driven by Big Tech gains and optimism over tariff negotiations
  • Canon has revised down net profit to 333 billion yen for FY2025, down 31 billion yen from prior estimates, due to U.S. tariff policies and yen appreciation hitting profits
  • Nissan Motor forecasts a record consolidated final loss of 750 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025

India’s Hotel Boom: How Spiritual Travel and Smart Expansion Are Redefining Hospitality

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • The hotel sector has seen robust room additions post-Covid, with a record high of 10,897 rooms projected for 2024-25, driven by domestic travel demand.
  • Occupancy rates have remained steady at around 64.5%, despite significant room capacity increases, while average room rates rose by 13.5% to Rs.7,608 in 2023-24.
  • The industry’s asset-light expansion strategy, including franchise and lease agreements, has facilitated rapid room inventory growth, with ongoing new project announcements remaining strong.

#139 India Insight: Adani’s $10B AI Push, Flipkart’s Domicile Shift, Tesla To Cut Reliance On China?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani commits $10B to data centers to meet booming AI demand; this bold expansion positions India as a future-ready digital infrastructure hub.
  • Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN)’s board approves shifting domicile to India ahead of its IPO and this move can unlock higher valuations and boost local investor participation.
  • Tesla (TSLA US) starts chip talks with Tata, Micron, and CG Semi to cut reliance on China; this reshapes India’s role in the global EV and semiconductor supply chain.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce

By Ying Pan

  • JD US/BABA US/PDD US: Government Regulation Forces Cancellation of “Refund Without Return” Policy (+/+/-)
  • 700 HK: Tencent Games SPARK Conference Reveals R&D Progress for Multiple Titles Including <Honor of Kings: World> (+)
  • BIDU US:Baidu launches the AI agent app “Xin Xiang,” which is similar to Manus(/)

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.
  • With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.
  • India’s economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.

Thematic Report: All You Need to Know About Fluorination Industry in India

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Fluorine chemistry is gaining strategic importance across sectors like pharma, agrochemicals, EVs, and semiconductors, driven by the superior thermal, chemical, and biological properties of fluorinated compounds. 
  • India is emerging as a global hub in fluorination, supported by backward-integrated capacities, decades of handling expertise, and the global China+1 diversification strategy. 
  • Companies like SRF Ltd (SRF IN), Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN), and Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN) are scaling up across the value chain from fluoropolymers to battery-grade electrolytes.

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Melt up with Smaller Cap SPE and Power/Analog Names in Focus

By Andrew Jackson

  • Texas Instruments and STM numbers pointing to a bottom for industrial and automotive semi’s.
  • Memory catching a bid on SK Hynix numbers yesterday, may see signs of live for Kioxia.
  • Renesas may run after better-than-feared numbers yesterday and a more positive read for the sector overall.

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.
  • Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.
  • Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/Macro

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV US: 2025 X9 Achieves 7,500 Orders in 7 Days Post-Launch (+)
  • 1810 HK: YU7 to Launch as Scheduled in June-July 2025(+)
  • Macro: Shanghai slightly enhances support measures for catering businesses (/)

#140 India Insight: IMF Trims FY26 Growth to 6.2%, Rapeseed Opportunity, IndusInd Audits MFI Gap

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The IMF has trimmed India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% due to global tariff uncertainty, indicating growing external risks for the Indian economy.
  • India is targeting a Rs. 1,000 crore rapeseed meal export opportunity to China following regulatory clearance, potentially boosting agri-exports and farmer income.
  • Indusind Bank (IIB IN) has appointed EY for a re-audit after detecting a Rs. 600 crore gap in its microfinance portfolio, raising red flags on governance and risk management.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief ECM: Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal
  • CiDi Pre-IPO – Promising Company Amid Strong Industry Tailwinds & Narrowing Losses
  • Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty
  • Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough

Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal

By Sumeet Singh

  • SK Telecom (017670 KS) plans to raise around US$280m via selling its 2%+ stake in Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
  • Kakao’s recent performance hasn’t been particularly great and the stock has been suffering even since the Kakao Pay management scandal in 2021.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

CiDi Pre-IPO – Promising Company Amid Strong Industry Tailwinds & Narrowing Losses

By Troy Wong

  • CiDi Inc. is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • CiDi is a leading autonomous driving technology provider for commercial vehicles in China, with a strong foothold in the autonomous mining segment.
  • The company stands to benefit from sustained industry tailwinds. While still in its early stages, CiDi has made progress in narrowing its losses.

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

By Akshat Shah

  • Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • DKCI is an R&D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates since then and valuations.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Softbank Group, Vedanta Resources, China Oil & Gas, Biocon Biologics
  • In the US, new home sales jumped 7.4% m-o-m (1.3% e / 3.1% revised p) to an annualised 724 k units in March, driven by a surge in home sales in the South. The March (final) building permits rose 0.5% to an annualised 1.47 mn units.
  • Separately, the S&P manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.7 (49.0 e / 50.2 p), while the services PMI fell to 51.4 (52.6 e / 54.4 p). The composite PMI declined to 51.2 (52.0 e / 53.5 p).

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard?
  • Korea Dems’ Surprise Proposal: Separate Tax for Dividends Over 35% Payout
  • Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳
  • Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Controlling Shareholder to Privatise a Negative EV Play?
  • Wanda Hotel (169 HK) To Offload Hotel Management Arm
  • LS Cable Plans to Purchase Up To 70 Billion Won of Gaon Cable – Will It Take It Private?
  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs
  • Lab Tested, Market Approved: KKR’s Biotage Bid Under the Microscope

Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) (DC), which is principally engaged in the sale of luxury goods business, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • DC’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& spouse), hold 60.5%. Super-net-cash rich DC is trading in sync with historical metrics. 1H25 (Mar Y/E) net profit dropped 40.1%. Shares are roughly flat yoy. 
  • Given DC’s cash hoard, taking the company private makes sense. I doubt Poon is seeking to exit his stake.

Korea Dems’ Surprise Proposal: Separate Tax for Dividends Over 35% Payout

By Sanghyun Park

  • The bill submitted by the Democratic Party today highlights that separate taxation on dividend income applies only to dividends from companies with a 35% payout ratio or higher.
  • We might see re-rating on dividend stocks with solid cash flow but below 35%, especially banks over telcos. Holdcos like Samsung C&T, LG, and Hyundai Glovis could attract attention too.
  • Dark horses like NAVER, with earnings potential, and Samsung Electronics, currently at 25%, could attract attention if they increase payouts to 35%.

Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳

By Travis Lundy

  • Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
  • The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving. 
  • The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)

Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

By Arun George

  • Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.
  • The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. 
  • The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Controlling Shareholder to Privatise a Negative EV Play?

By Arun George

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to The Code on Takeovers and Mergers, which constitutes inside information of the Company.”  
  • The controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) is likely seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme, particularly as the shares trade below net cash.
  • While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test and a decent AGM participation rate necessitate an attractive offer. The potential offer price range is HK$5.60-9.24.

Wanda Hotel (169 HK) To Offload Hotel Management Arm

By David Blennerhassett

LS Cable Plans to Purchase Up To 70 Billion Won of Gaon Cable – Will It Take It Private?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 22 April, LS Cable & System announced that it plans to acquire up to 70 billion won worth of Gaon Cable.
  • If LS Cable purchases 70 billion won worth of Gaon Cable’s shares (7.4% stake at current price), its stake in the company would rise to 89%. 
  • There are numerous options for Gaon Cable going forward including privatization or a merger with LS Cable. 

[Quiddity Index Apr25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
  • We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Lab Tested, Market Approved: KKR’s Biotage Bid Under the Microscope

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Gross spread is 2.62%, implying a solid annualized return of ~22.0% assuming a June closing—an attractive profile given the minimal regulatory and financing risks.
  • The market is pricing in a ~93.2% probability of deal success, reflecting strong confidence driven by Board support, substantial shareholder backing (36% aligned), and the absence of antitrust red flags.
  • Challenging but feasible threshold: requires 84.3% of free flaot to tender to reach the 90% acceptance condition and enable squeeze out.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?
  • The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value
  • Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC
  • UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations
  • Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
  • Nidec (6594) | Chasing Trends to Fiscal Discipline
  • SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin
  • Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) ’s stock has nearly doubled in three months, fueled by surging revenue and the breakout popularity of its Labubu dolls.
  • Driven by strong international expansion and solid omni-channel demand in its home market, Pop Mart reported over 165% revenue growth in 1Q2025 compared to the same period last year.
  • Investors remain split on whether Pop Mart’s unconventional products and marketing are driven by lasting fandom or just a passing trend.

The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN), With a sharp pivot post-IPO, it has deleveraged, scaled Flurys to 100 outlets, and launched ARR-led palace properties, all while staying asset-light and cash-smart.  
  • F&B now contributes nearly half of revenues, ARRs are climbing, and legacy land is being monetised to fund INR 500 crore of capex without debt. 
  • Earlier seen as a traditional hotel chain, Park now to be looked as a brand with strong visibility, smart capital use, and fresh retail momentum.

Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) has entered into a strategic partnership with GIC, a global institutional investor, to establish a joint venture platform for upscale and higher hotel assets in India.
  • This transaction will significantly reduce SAMHI’s debt, enhance its financial flexibility, and provide access to up to $300 million in future capital for further expansion in high-demand upscale hotel sector.
  • The partnership with GIC strengthens SAMHI’s growth outlook, boosts profitability through debt reduction, and positions the company to capitalize on the rapidly expanding upscale hospitality market in India.

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.  
  • The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027
  • Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.

Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Demand for Auto & Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
  • Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. 
  • Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.

Nidec (6594) | Chasing Trends to Fiscal Discipline

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec beat Q4 expectations but offered muted FY3/26 guidance, with flat sales and modest profit growth amid macro and tariff uncertainty.
  • New CEO Kishida shifts focus from top-line ambition to margin discipline, targeting ¥150bn in cost cuts over three years.
  • Once a high-growth play, Nidec now trades at value multiples — 1.5x book — offering a more grounded path to shareholder returns.

SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns

By Jim Handy

  • SK hynix announced their second-highest revenue and operating profit for the first quarter of 2025
  • Much of the company’s performance is the result of its first-mover advantage and excellent execution in the HBM market
  • Two issues threaten the company: AI growth may stall, and tariff changes could interfere with the company’s global supply chain

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin

By Tina Banerjee

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) revenue grew 19% YoY to $2.3B in 1Q25.  Procedures volume grew ~17% YoY, which boosted instruments and accessories revenue.
  • The company placed 367 da Vinci surgical systems, compared with 313 in 1Q24. It included 147 da Vinci 5 systems, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
  • Intuitive has raised the procedure growth guidance range from 13–15% to 15–17%, while trimming down gross margin to the range 65–66.5% from 67–68%, due to tariffs.

Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
  • Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
  • Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 21.4% YoY to JPY29.7bn, with operating profit rising 53.1% YoY to JPY12.5bn.
  • Capital gains reached JPY12.7bn, a 60.0% YoY increase, driven by IPO-related share sales and unlisted shares.
  • Total assets under management stood at JPY458.4bn, with JPY198.5bn subject to management fees as of end-March 2025.

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Macro: DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience
  • The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!
  • The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
  • China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges
  • CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops
  • Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?
  • [ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

By Phil Rush

  • President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
  • Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
  • DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.

The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!

By David Mudd

  • The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year.  Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.
  • Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. 
  • Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.

The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..

By Andreas Steno

  • The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
  • When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
  • What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.

China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • TSF increased by a record RMB15.18trn (US$2.09trn) in Q12025, enabling industrial growth of 6.5%YoY, FAI growth of 4.2%YoY, retail sales growth of 4.6%YoY and real GDP growth of 5.4%YoY. 
  • Slumping imports and 7.5%YoY growth in exports in Q1/2025 took the 12m-rolling trade surplus to US$1.08trn in Mar’25, but FX reserves declined slightly YoY, suggesting persistence of colossal capital flight.
  • Producer prices have deflated for 5 of the past 10 years, including all 30 latest months (-2.5%YoY Mar’25). Tariff barriers will prevent exporting overcapacity, thereby exacerbating deflation, hastening financial crises. 

CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops

By Caixin Global

  • Luxury /:  Luxury brands cut price of exclusivity as Chinese spending drops
  • Trade /: Xi’s Southeast Asia tour underscores regional trade ties
  • Tariffs /Interview: China’s vast market can be key to trade negotiations

Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?

By Douglas Kim

  • There is an important potential change in dividend income taxes that may finally be passed into law in Korea.
  • The Democratic Party of Korea (led by Democratic Party lawmaker Lee So-Young) is pushing legislation to separate the taxation of dividends from comprehensive income for publicly listed companies.
  • Among the top 100 companies in KOSPI (by market cap), there are 21 companies with more than 35% estimated dividend payout in 2025, including SK Telecom, POSCO Holdings, and KT&G.

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
  • Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
  • Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

By Sameer Taneja

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Apr 25
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Daily Brief Australia: Fenix Resources , Gti Resources, Kaiser Reef Ltd, Legacy Minerals Holdings ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fenix Resources Ltd – Building blocks made of WA iron
  • Gti Resources Ltd – Scoping uranium pounds in the USA
  • Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer
  • Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd – Multiple Plays on NSW Exploration Success

Fenix Resources Ltd – Building blocks made of WA iron

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) is a junior iron ore producer based in the Midwest region of Western Australia (WA).
  • FEX has been producing iron ore from the Iron Ridge project since 2020 with a total of 5.7Mt produced to date.
  • Going forward, FEX is planning to expand its production rate from ~1.3Mtpa to 4.0Mtpa by the end of CY25 through the ramp-up of production at the recently restarted Shine Mine and the currently under construction mine at Beebyn-W11.

Gti Resources Ltd – Scoping uranium pounds in the USA

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • GTI Energy Ltd (ASX:GTR) is focused on the development of three uranium projects located across Wyoming and Utah, USA.
  • Lo Herma (Wyoming) is the current flagship project for the company.
  • The company’s Wyoming projects are amenable to in-situ recovery (ISR) with GTR progressing a scoping study at the Lo Herma project which is evaluating the economic feasibility of a potential ISR mining operation.

Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
  • Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
  • Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd – Multiple Plays on NSW Exploration Success

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd (ASX:LGM) is a prospect generator and exploration company with a portfolio of projects across NSW.
  • Overall, LGM has nine projects whereby four are under joint venture with other major and junior explorers which provide additional funding to increase the level of concurrent exploration activity across its projects.
  • Like 2024, 2025 is set to be another productive year for LGM with multiple, funded, high-impact drill programmes aiming to make a significant discovery in addition to progressing development options at Drake.

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Apr 25
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Daily Brief Singapore: Sheng Siong, OCBC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer
  • Retail Investors’ Bold Moves Amid STI’s Volatile April

Sheng Siong Group Ltd: Inflection Point for a Great Performer

By Tan Yee Peng

  • We analysed Sheng Siong’s success over the years to see what its secret sauce is and what made the retailer so successful.

  • It has punched its weight above its competitors with a set of strong financial metrics. Its ability to generate free cash flow and achieve a high return on equity are truly impressive.

  • However, Sheng Siong is at an inflection point now as its revenue and net profit have stagnated since the pandemic. 

Retail Investors’ Bold Moves Amid STI’s Volatile April

By Geoff Howie

  • Retail investors net bought S$1.165 billion in Singapore stocks in early April, primarily DBS, OCBC, and UOB.
  • Retail net buying reversed by S$253 million after April 14, with Singtel being the most net sold stock.
  • IMF downgraded 2025 global growth outlook to 2.8%, citing trade tensions and potential impacts on ASEAN growth.

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Apr 25
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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Jago Tbk PT, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Growing AZKO Stores and Private Label

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

By Brian Freitas

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Growing AZKO Stores and Private Label

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) released a solid set of FY2024 results, with SSSG and headline coming in ahead of expectations, with the company expanding its stores by 20 outlets. 
  • The key concern from the results was the slower guidance for SSSG and sales for 2025, despite a more aggressive store rollout this year, especially outside Java.
  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia continues to push the AZKO brand with higher promotional spend, offset by the lack of royalties to ACES US. Guidance looks conservative and valuations look attractive historically.  

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