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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity
  • Tech News This Week. Apple AI, TSMC, Korea’s Giga-Fund, Stargate
  • Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) – Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point
  • J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power
  • Halyk Bank (HSBK LI)
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Corporate Value Enhancement Plan Targets W5 Trillion Revenue by 2033
  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Steady FY24, 9% Yield and >80% ROCE

Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late January, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced its once/former parent would sell all its shares; in part to a private company in the industry and a 20% buyback.
  • The buyback – a below-market own-share tender offer – was priced low enough to be a big win. Accretion added to that. 
  • Buyback Tender Results and External Changes signal overhang and opportunity. Either way, it’s cheap, but good governance could make it even cheaper.

Tech News This Week. Apple AI, TSMC, Korea’s Giga-Fund, Stargate

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Apple’s AI struggle. Google’s Gemini has won? TSMC ex-Chairman is joining Micron’s board
  • SK Hynix out of image sensors. Korean Gvt launch US$100bn fund for strategic industries
  • Stargate first data center is under way. Close to 100k Nvidia GPU in 2026. Hon Hai makes the servers.

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) – Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
  • Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
  • Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at <1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

By Daniel Hellberg

  • H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
  • However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
  • Within China’s express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive

Halyk Bank (HSBK LI)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Kazakhstan is a landlocked country right between Russia and China. It’s wealthier than most realize, with a great amount of natural resources such as oil & gas and uranium.
  • Thanks to resource extractions and favorable demographics, GDP per capita has grown rapidly.
  • One of the biggest beneficiaries of that growth has been Halyk Bank – the country’s leading commercial bank.

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The share price of AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) has picked up in Mar, and it will continue to chase the HSI and HSCEI, in our view.
  • At 54.1%, AviChina’s discount to its A-share holdings has narrowed 4.2pp YTD, but is still behind the 6.2pp contraction for overall H-A shares. There is more room to catch up.
  • The increase in defense spending, advancement in domestic commercial aviation and development of the low-altitude economy are major potential drivers.

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Corporate Value Enhancement Plan Targets W5 Trillion Revenue by 2033

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) targets revenue CAGR of at least 15% during 2025–2027 (2021–24: 7.5%) to achieve revenue of KRW2.3T in 2027 and KRW5T by 2033.
  • Hanmi expects to achieve operating profit of KRW380B in 2027, with operating margin of 16.5% (2024:14.4%). Operating profit is expected to reach KRW1T in 2033, with operating margin of 20.0%.  
  • R&D pipeline should play a major role in achieving the targets. The company plans to gradually increase the R&D spending to 15%+ of revenue.

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Steady FY24, 9% Yield and >80% ROCE

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  delivered steady FY24 growth, with revenue and profits up 1.9% and 7.1% YoY, respectively. Q4 FY24, however, underperformed expectations with revenue/profits up 0.6%/1.7% YoY.
  • Although Q4 typically represents >30% of overall annual revenue/profits, being the strongest season, its performance was disappointing compared to the strong 21%/35% YoY revenue/profit growth seen in Q3 2024.
  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) represents tremendous value with a dividend yield of 9% (100% payout), ROEs exceeding 80%, and a cheap multiple of 11x FY24 PE. 

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms
  • Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share
  • SSI Weekly Highlights: Liquidations, Mergers, and Strategic Developments in Biopharma
  • Weekly Update (IDT, RHLD, SNRE, SNDK)

The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors

By Travis Lundy

  • The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.
  • The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.
  • In February, the USTR announced “Proposed Actions” – fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
  • To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
  • Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped somewhat but still high. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$35bn which is still quite strong. Round-tripping volume down 20% week-on-week.
  • The flows here are still striking. >20% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly volume. 
  • It feels like there is some common understanding among SOUTHBOUND investors which I do not understand. The numbers are big/growing.

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet

By Arun George

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • After small-cap property developer Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer by way of Scheme. 
  • And that is what unfolded. Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, are Offering $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, a 62.84% premium to undisturbed.  
  • That’s still a whopping 87.66% discount to the most recent NAV (30th June 2024). But what are the options for minorities (apart from the headcount test)? And terms are final. 

SSI Weekly Highlights: Liquidations, Mergers, and Strategic Developments in Biopharma

By Special Situation Investments

  • Abrdn Diversified Income And Growth is undergoing a wind-down, trading at a 30% discount to NAV, with potential liquidation acceleration.
  • OCI N.V.’s methanol business sale to Methanex is pending regulatory approvals, with unresolved Natgasoline JV stake issues affecting transaction value.
  • Pacific Current Group’s A$300m buyback tender extended, with shares trading below tender price, and potential further capital returns.

Weekly Update (IDT, RHLD, SNRE, SNDK)

By Richard Howe

  • There were no new spin-off announcements this week.

  • The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) announced its plan to spin off its food processing business on February 25, 2025.

  • This strategic move aims to allow Middleby to concentrate on its core commercial foodservice and residential kitchen equipment sectors, while enabling the new entity to focus exclusively on food processing operations.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Macro: Tops Are Processes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Tops Are Processes
  • High Drama at the 200 Dma

Tops Are Processes

By Cam Hui

  • A review of the market’s technical conditions and macro backdrop is supportive of a long-term stock market top.
  • The good news is, in the absence of an active policy to engineer a slowdown, there is no recession in sight.
  • Our base case calls for an adjustment of growth expectations and a garden-variety bear market, which typically sees a drawdown of 20–30%.

High Drama at the 200 Dma

By Cam Hui

  • The S&P 500 fell last week to test support at the 200 dma.
  • Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all.
  • Cutting through all the news-driven noise, we believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a final sentiment flush.

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Mar 10
0

Most Read: Japan Post Bank, Nikkei 225, A2 Milk Co Ltd, Sigma Healthcare, SK Innovation, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, DoorDash , China Vanke (H) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings
  • Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia
  • S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)
  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices
  • Quiddity ASX Mar25 Results: Multiple Surprises; High Short Buildup for DELs; Rare Successful Trade
  • Got the BBIG Rebalancing Results: SK Innovation Is the Trade This Week
  • The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors
  • Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity
  • S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way “the right pattern” would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
  • Last time was a “second IPO” and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float. 
  • Pricing is Monday. It hasn’t moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

By Brian Freitas

  • We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
  • India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
  • A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.

S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

By Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 2 changes for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
  • There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.

Quiddity ASX Mar25 Results: Multiple Surprises; High Short Buildup for DELs; Rare Successful Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 7th March 2025.
  • There are 22 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300.
  • In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.

Got the BBIG Rebalancing Results: SK Innovation Is the Trade This Week

By Sanghyun Park

  • Real alpha? Tight basket means outsized passive flows. The play? SK Innovation, no contest.
  • Samsung SDI faces -0.54x ADTV outflows. Other movers: Netmarble 0.68x, Wemade Max 0.54x, NHN -0.46x ADTV.
  • Net-Net? SK Innovation is the trade. Long here, hedge short on Samsung SDI or the broader Battery space.

The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors

By Travis Lundy

  • The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.
  • The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.
  • In February, the USTR announced “Proposed Actions” – fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.

Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late January, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced its once/former parent would sell all its shares; in part to a private company in the industry and a 20% buyback.
  • The buyback – a below-market own-share tender offer – was priced low enough to be a big win. Accretion added to that. 
  • Buyback Tender Results and External Changes signal overhang and opportunity. Either way, it’s cheap, but good governance could make it even cheaper.

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

By Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
  • To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
  • Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Innovation, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Got the BBIG Rebalancing Results: SK Innovation Is the Trade This Week
  • The Week Ahead in Options – 10 March
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 04 – 07): Market Stabilizes After Sharp Drop
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Corporate Value Enhancement Plan Targets W5 Trillion Revenue by 2033

Got the BBIG Rebalancing Results: SK Innovation Is the Trade This Week

By Sanghyun Park

  • Real alpha? Tight basket means outsized passive flows. The play? SK Innovation, no contest.
  • Samsung SDI faces -0.54x ADTV outflows. Other movers: Netmarble 0.68x, Wemade Max 0.54x, NHN -0.46x ADTV.
  • Net-Net? SK Innovation is the trade. Long here, hedge short on Samsung SDI or the broader Battery space.

The Week Ahead in Options – 10 March

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • US steel and aluminum tariffs (effective 12 March US time) will take effect on March 13 across the Asia-Pacific region. Volatility can be expected in Japan, South Korea, India, China.
  • Major quarterly derivatives expirations will occur on March 13 in Japan (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, Stocks), South Korea (KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, Stocks), and India (BSE Stock Futures and Options).
  • Earnings announcements for AIA Group (1299 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK/LI US) are scheduled for March 14, while India’s markets will be closed that day for the Holi holiday.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 04 – 07): Market Stabilizes After Sharp Drop

By John Ley

  • Kospi takes a breather this week after last Friday’s sell-off to trade in a narrow range.
  • Short-Term volatility eases in trade shortened week pulling implied vol down.
  • We highlight the dynamic between implied and historic volatility and discuss whether long or short volatility strategies have been the most effective this year.

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Corporate Value Enhancement Plan Targets W5 Trillion Revenue by 2033

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) targets revenue CAGR of at least 15% during 2025–2027 (2021–24: 7.5%) to achieve revenue of KRW2.3T in 2027 and KRW5T by 2033.
  • Hanmi expects to achieve operating profit of KRW380B in 2027, with operating margin of 16.5% (2024:14.4%). Operating profit is expected to reach KRW1T in 2033, with operating margin of 20.0%.  
  • R&D pipeline should play a major role in achieving the targets. The company plans to gradually increase the R&D spending to 15%+ of revenue.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices
  • Quiddity ASX Mar25 Results: Multiple Surprises; High Short Buildup for DELs; Rare Successful Trade

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 2 changes for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
  • There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.

Quiddity ASX Mar25 Results: Multiple Surprises; High Short Buildup for DELs; Rare Successful Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the March 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 7th March 2025.
  • There are 22 ADDs and 18 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300.
  • In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Steady FY24, 9% Yield and >80% ROCE

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Steady FY24, 9% Yield and >80% ROCE

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  delivered steady FY24 growth, with revenue and profits up 1.9% and 7.1% YoY, respectively. Q4 FY24, however, underperformed expectations with revenue/profits up 0.6%/1.7% YoY.
  • Although Q4 typically represents >30% of overall annual revenue/profits, being the strongest season, its performance was disappointing compared to the strong 21%/35% YoY revenue/profit growth seen in Q3 2024.
  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) represents tremendous value with a dividend yield of 9% (100% payout), ROEs exceeding 80%, and a cheap multiple of 11x FY24 PE. 

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief United States: DoorDash , Middleby Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility
  • Weekly Update (IDT, RHLD, SNRE, SNDK)

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

By Brian Freitas

Weekly Update (IDT, RHLD, SNRE, SNDK)

By Richard Howe

  • There were no new spin-off announcements this week.

  • The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) announced its plan to spin off its food processing business on February 25, 2025.

  • This strategic move aims to allow Middleby to concentrate on its core commercial foodservice and residential kitchen equipment sectors, while enabling the new entity to focus exclusively on food processing operations.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief China: China Vanke (H), Tencent, ESR Group , JD.com , Mixue Group, Hang Seng Index, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Soundwill Holdings, J&T Global Express , AviChina Industry & Technology H and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms
  • Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet
  • JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings Recap: Intra-Day Swing of 7.3%.
  • MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 03 – 07): From Caution to Euphoria as Sentiment Flips
  • Chifeng Jilong A/H Trading – Weak Institutional Demand and Probably Close to Fair Value
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share
  • J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
  • To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
  • Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech, Banks, and Telecoms

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped somewhat but still high. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$35bn which is still quite strong. Round-tripping volume down 20% week-on-week.
  • The flows here are still striking. >20% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly volume. 
  • It feels like there is some common understanding among SOUTHBOUND investors which I do not understand. The numbers are big/growing.

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) – Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet

By Arun George

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings Recap: Intra-Day Swing of 7.3%.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • JD.com (9618 HK) Q4 2024 earnings significantly exceeded analyst expectations with revenue reaching RMB 347 billion (13.4% YoY increase).
  • The stock experienced a volatile two-day reaction, rising 8.4% on March 6 followed by a 5.0% decline on March 7, resulting in a net gain of 3.03%.
  • Options strategies including straddles, strangles, and call calendar spreads were actively traded ahead of earnings with potential intraday profitability. Longer dated implied volatility decreased following the announcement.

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MIXUE’s IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
  • However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
  • We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 03 – 07): From Caution to Euphoria as Sentiment Flips

By John Ley

  • A dramatic shift saw stocks surge as market sentiment reversed week over week.
  • Single stock option volumes were significantly lower vs prior two weeks.
  • We highlight stocks that have had unusual moves in price, volume and implied volatility.

Chifeng Jilong A/H Trading – Weak Institutional Demand and Probably Close to Fair Value

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, raised around US$363m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
  • It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
  • We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Founder’s Scheme At $8.50/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • After small-cap property developer Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer by way of Scheme. 
  • And that is what unfolded. Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, are Offering $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, a 62.84% premium to undisturbed.  
  • That’s still a whopping 87.66% discount to the most recent NAV (30th June 2024). But what are the options for minorities (apart from the headcount test)? And terms are final. 

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

By Daniel Hellberg

  • H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
  • However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
  • Within China’s express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The share price of AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) has picked up in Mar, and it will continue to chase the HSI and HSCEI, in our view.
  • At 54.1%, AviChina’s discount to its A-share holdings has narrowed 4.2pp YTD, but is still behind the 6.2pp contraction for overall H-A shares. There is more room to catch up.
  • The increase in defense spending, advancement in domestic commercial aviation and development of the low-altitude economy are major potential drivers.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief India: Jindal Steel & Power, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) – Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point
  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 03 – 07): Rebound Ends Extended Losing Streak

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) – Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
  • Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
  • Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at <1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 03 – 07): Rebound Ends Extended Losing Streak

By John Ley

  • The Nifty snapped its losing streak with a sharp rebound, rising 1.92% for the week.
  • Implied volatility struggled to hold up, trading lower through most of the week.
  • We break down the implied vs. historic vol relationship and what it signals for traders.

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