In today’s briefing:
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
- Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
- Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway
- Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely
- Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
- Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility
- Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal
- [Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
- Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
- The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final.
- The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final.
- The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced.
- The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms.
Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
- Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
- Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
- Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.
Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway
- After the market close on 16 January, it was reported that Align Partners started to go activist on Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS).
- Align Partners sent a public letter to Coway demanding improvements to shareholder returns and measures to enhance the independence of the board of directors.
- The combination of higher shareholder returns, low valuations, and Align Partners putting further activist pressure are likely to lead to continued outperformance of Coway relative to KOSPI this year.
Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality
- Steep decline in the stock price triggered a wave of speculation and rumours, further fueling the negative sentiment surrounding Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN).
- The rumours ranged from serious allegations of inventory overvaluation and IT raids to concerns about changes in franchisee agreements and even accusations of bribery.
- While Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) has dismissed the overvaluation allegations, its inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has consistently lagged behind the industry leader Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) .
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
- We see up to four M&A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
- Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.
Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
- Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
- Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
- Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.
Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility
- Toyota Motor Corporation, the world’s largest automaker by production volume, finds itself at a critical juncture in the global automotive industry.
- Despite a commendable first-half operating income of ¥2.464 trillion for fiscal 2025 and a full-year forecast of ¥4.3 trillion, the company’s electrification strategy—or lack thereof—remains a contentious issue.
- While Toyota has mastered the art of hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it continues to lag significantly behind competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle (EV) space.
Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal
- Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment.
- Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.
- Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.
[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic
- We expect TCOM to report C4Q24 revenue 1.8% lower than consensus, mainly due to lukewarm outbound travel. But we see domestic and inbound remained robust heading into CNY.
- Given strong data flow heading into CNY, we continue to be positive on domestic travel while outbound suffering a further setback…
- We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.
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