Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

By The Commodity Report

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

By At Any Rate

Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates

By Water Tower Research

MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

RVPH: Preliminary OLE Readout

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 1Q25.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Tencent, VCredit Holdings Ltd, Goldlion Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, CanSino Biologics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea
GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play
GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open
CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December.
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About

When VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman.
Well, we do have an Offer. Ma acquired 4.19% via two SPAs, lifting his stake to 44.04%. Stephen Liu (an ED) also acquired 1.43% via an SPA.
As Ma, Liu, and other parties, are presumed to be acting in concert, an unconditional MGO is triggered. But at HK$1.80/share, a 9.09% discount to undisturbed.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November).
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller.
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea

By Ming Lu

Alibaba sells 100% equities in Intime Department Store to Youngor.
Meituan plans to shorten delivery workers’ work hours due to sudden death cases.
Mixue, the lowest price fresh drink provider, began to raise its prices.

GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play

On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made.
Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.

GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open

On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025.

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 is the year when CanSino achieves a fundamental reversal. Based on the current sales performance of meningococcal vaccines, 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach about RMB840 million.
Under normal circumstances, PCV13i is expected to be approved in Q1-Q2 next year. If everything goes smoothly, PCV13i would be approved at the beginning of next year at the earliest.
Market value of RMB8-10 billion is reasonable range for CanSino. If a new virus causes a pandemic in the future, this will be a powerful catalyst for stock price.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Options Market Caught Flat-Footed on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric. IVs Jump.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Options Market Caught Flat-Footed on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric. IVs Jump.

By Sankalp Singh

Options Market caught flat-footed on hawkish Fed rhetoric. IVs corrected sharply higher, with Monthly IVs trading up to 15.5%.
Vol Regime has switched to “High & Up” state. IVs now in top percentile of historical ranges. Look for a quick switch back to “High & Down” state.
Smile dynamics unchanged. Skew has undergone compression. Vol term structure trading in inverted-V shape – should normalize once market-holiday drops off the calendar.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Japan: Honda Motor, Exedy Corp, Nikkei 225, Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback
[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion
Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization?

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025…
Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback – up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
Assuming the stock pops, it is probably “only” worth 15-18%, but that’s still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami’s selling.
Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December.
I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).

Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion

By Michael Causton

Isetan-Mitsukoshi has gone from being the most cautious forecaster among the big department store retailers to the most optimistic.
This is largely on the back of previously unimaginable sales records at its main stores, especially Isetan Shinjuku.
All of which is bringing in piles of profit, with projections of exceeding its previous average profit by four times.

Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization?

By Aki Matsumoto

In addition to many manufacturing companies that are sensitive to economic cycles, TSE is also characterized by many companies with sluggish operating cash flow growth.
Low interest rates in Japan can also be a factor in high volatility. As the volatility of low interest rates increases, corporate value volatility is likely to increase as well.
Some overseas investors pay attention to the equity spread over JGB yields. As the risk of rising interest rates in Japan increases, they are likely to unwind their futures positions.

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Dec 24

Most Read: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Kokusai Electric , Honda Motor, Posco DX, Exedy Corp, Nikkei 225, Tencent, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Goldlion Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) Privatization Update- Looks Like “An Agreement” Has Been Reached?
Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February
Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback
Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations
[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) Privatization Update- Looks Like “An Agreement” Has Been Reached?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun has a clear plan for Henlius’ future development. This seems to hint at “an internal consensus” – Fosun seems to have persuaded major shareholders to vote for the privatization.
The privatization of Henlius will make positive contributions to Fosun Pharma’s revenue/profit, but this impact is limited. What Fosun really wants is to obtain huge investment income from another spin-off/re-listed.
For investors who are interested in the Share Alternative, they’re advised to figure out whether the Rollover Entities/Securities is relevant to the new entity.If not, the Share Alternative is worthless.

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas

Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025…
Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback – up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
Assuming the stock pops, it is probably “only” worth 15-18%, but that’s still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December.
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

By Brian Freitas

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami’s selling.
Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December.
I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November).
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller.
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Industrials: MillerKnoll, Posco International Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates
New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates

By Water Tower Research

MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

By Douglas Kim

Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports.
However, POSCO International’s plan is much better. POSCO International plans to provide total shareholder returns of 50% which is more than double of its previous total shareholder return plan.
This sharp increase in shareholder returns is likely to lead to share outperformance of POSCO International relative to the market in the next several months.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Korea Zinc, Natural Gas and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Global Commodities: The biggest pushback
GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play
Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner
Korea Zinc: Cumulative Voting System and 10 to 1 Stock Split
GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open
Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality
Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities
U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

Global Commodities: The biggest pushback

By At Any Rate

Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play

On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made.
Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.

Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner

By Vinod Nedumudy

Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

Korea Zinc: Cumulative Voting System and 10 to 1 Stock Split

By Douglas Kim

Chairman Choi has proposed a cumulative voting system which is one of the agenda items to be discussed and voted upon at the EGM on 23 January.
There is likely to be continued uncertainty about proxy voting, including whether or not Korea Zinc could use cumulative voting system for Chairman Choi to retain control of the company.
On 23 December, Korea Zinc (010130 KS) announced that it will propose a 10 to 1 stock split on the next EGM scheduled for 23 January 2025.

GAPack (468 HK): XJF’s Offer Now Open

On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025.

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

By The Commodity Report

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , CanSino Biologics , Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi, Top Glove Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns
RVPH: Preliminary OLE Readout
Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Break-Even Achieved in 1QFY25, Strong Demand to Persist in Coming Quarters

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December.
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) – From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 is the year when CanSino achieves a fundamental reversal. Based on the current sales performance of meningococcal vaccines, 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach about RMB840 million.
Under normal circumstances, PCV13i is expected to be approved in Q1-Q2 next year. If everything goes smoothly, PCV13i would be approved at the beginning of next year at the earliest.
Market value of RMB8-10 billion is reasonable range for CanSino. If a new virus causes a pandemic in the future, this will be a powerful catalyst for stock price.

RVPH: Preliminary OLE Readout

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 1Q25.

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Break-Even Achieved in 1QFY25, Strong Demand to Persist in Coming Quarters

By Tina Banerjee

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 80% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY25 and returned to profitability with a net profit of RM5M.
With robust demand outlook, Top Glove expects the ASP to further strengthen. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26 from 10% now.
Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nikkei 225, Tencent, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Micron Technology, LG CNS, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, TongFu Microelectronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech
LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus’s Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.

Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron’s Latest Outlook Disappoints & Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix & Nanya Tech Has Worked However
Smartphone AI Insights — On-Device Local Search & Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs
Conclusion — Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade

LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.
Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus’s Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan’s Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?
Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech
Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks — A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai’s EV Ambitions Remain High

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC’s new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.
Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India’s semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.
China’s chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Consumer: Honda Motor, Exedy Corp, Goldlion Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd, Britvic PLC, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback
[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea
Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion
Carlsberg/Britvic: Deal Cleared, Spread
Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization?

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025…
Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback – up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
Assuming the stock pops, it is probably “only” worth 15-18%, but that’s still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami’s selling.
Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December.
I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal