Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• The US dollar remains strong despite ongoing government shutdown and uncertain economic data
• Eurodollar shows resilience and potential for growth due to positive PMI data in Europe
• Range-bound trading expected for Eurodollar with potential for upside breakout depending on US data and market conditions

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• Tight spread: JTC trades 1.7% below Permira’s 1,340p cash offer, implying a modest ~2% annualised return and ~94% market-implied completion probability.
• Low risk: Fully financed, board-backed, minimal antitrust hurdles; interloper risk negligible after Warburg’s withdrawal.
• Recommendation: Treat as cash-equivalent carry; lock in gains and redeploy to wider-spread, higher-return opportunities.

• ABCL’s Q2 FY26 lending portfolio surged 29% YoY, driven by Housing Finance and secured MSME loans, while the firm deployed Generative AI across its flagship digital platforms.
• Robust asset growth and an improving credit profile (Gross Stage 2 & 3 down 121 bps YoY in NBFC), but consolidated PAT growth was constrained by rising interest costs.
• The One ABC’ digital ecosystem and high-growth segments position ABCL for enhanced return ratios, meriting a closer look at its valuation discount relative to pure-play NBFC peers.

• Company delivered a steady Q2 FY26, with PAT growth of 23% YoY and 4% QoQ, in line with expectations. MSME stress prompted a modest downgrade in AUM guidance to 22–23%. 
• The quarter reflects the company’s pivot toward quality growth, fortified by an aggressive AI transformation program (FINAI) and gold loan expansion strategy.
• While short-term credit costs weigh on margins, Bajaj Finance’s digital transformation and franchise scale position it to re-accelerate in FY27, reinforcing its premium valuation among Indian NBFCs.

• Bank Alfalah is demonstrating a strong growth trajectory, evidenced by significant year-on-year increases in revenue and net income, alongside a robust Capital Adequacy Ratio that is comfortably above regulatory requirements.
• The bank is currently navigating short-term profitability pressures due to a high cost-to-income ratio, driven by branch expansion and a decline in remittance-related income. However, management anticipates a normalization of these costs.
• Strategically, the bank is focused on enhancing its low-cost deposit base by improving its current account mix and is well-positioned to capitalize on the expected recovery in credit demand as interest rates become more favorable.

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• Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected lines
• Norges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming data
• Bank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next year

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• Coinbase Global Inc.’s Q3 2025 earnings reveal a mixed but strategically progressive narrative for the company.
• With total revenue reaching $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $801 million, Coinbase demonstrates strong financial momentum, underpinned by the expansion of its “Everything Exchange” as announced in the previous quarter.
• This initiative underscores Coinbase’s ambition to offer a single platform for trading diverse asset classes, beyond its traditional scope of cryptocurrencies.

• Credit Suisse faced a terminal crisis of confidence following years of financial losses, risk management failures, and numerous scandals, culminating in its emergency acquisition by UBS in March 2023.
• The government-brokered takeover by its historic rival UBS for CHF 3 billion was executed to prevent a wider systemic collapse, effectively ending Credit Suisse’s 167-year history as an independent institution.
• The bank’s failure was rooted in a series of costly missteps, including massive losses from the collapses of Archegos Capital and Greensill Capital, which exposed deep-seated cultural and operational deficiencies.

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• Consolidated ordinary income increased to JPY33.0bn (+15.7% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY6.9bn (+16.0% YoY).
• Non-consolidated core operating profit slightly declined to JPY6.0bn (-0.3% YoY), while ordinary profit rose to JPY6.8bn (+9.0% YoY).
• The bank revised its FY03/26 forecast, projecting consolidated ordinary profit of JPY11.3bn (+5.8% YoY) and maintaining dividends.

• Context: The Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) vs. Bank of India (BOI IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) and short Bank of India (BOI IN) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.