Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Fast Retailing, Socionext, Advantest Corp, Digital Garage, Outsourcing Inc, Benefit One Inc, Nihon M&A Center, Ana Holdings, M3 Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Fast Retailing
  • FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)
  • Advantest (6587) | Testing the Limits of AI
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Jan 2024
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX
  • Nihon M&A: Earnings Begin to Recover..
  • ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL
  • M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Fast Retailing

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
  • Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 1.3-19x ADV (7.1-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-47x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) avoids capping in March, passives will buy Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), and 25 stocks have over 0.5x ADV to sell as part of the funding trade.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
  • It’s still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
  • I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.

Advantest (6587) | Testing the Limits of AI

By Mark Chadwick

  • Advantest reported strong Q3 results, driven by robust demand for memory testers
  • The company raised its full-year guidance for revenue and operating profit to inline with analyst estimates
  • Advantest’s stock price remains overvalued on AI-hype. We remain bearish with a potential downside of 25%.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Jan 2024

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-January 2024.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?

By Arun George

  • Bain has delayed the Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) tender start from late January due to more time required to satisfy the European regulatory approval pre-condition.
  • Potential reasons for bumping are opportunistic timing, re-rating of Japanese peers, a high minority acceptance rate, and an offer below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
  • Potential reasons for keeping terms unchanged are no activists, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed price, and an offer still attractive compared to Japanese peers’ multiples and price ratios.  

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Nihon M&A: Earnings Begin to Recover..

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP increased 22.5% and 64.6% YoY respectively and were above consensus estimates.
  • M&A revenues for the quarter saw significant growth after seeing two consecutive quarters of YoY decline driven by growth in the no. of deals and revenue per transaction.
  • The company’s share price has moved up by around 15% following the earnings announcement, however, share price has been down by more than 30% over the last 12-months.  

ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL

By Neil Glynn

  • ANA has revised its FY24 to March 2024 profit guidance upward on higher revenues; EBIT up from ¥120bn to ¥190bn in line with consensus (AIRCT ¥182bn).
  • Air Transportation naturally drives the upgrade, with its EBIT guide up ¥60bn as higher revenues outweigh higher costs.
  • This upgrade also has major relevance for JAL, where expect a FY24 EBIT guidance upgrade. We are at ¥177bn versus consensus of ¥142bn/guidance of ¥130bn.

M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.
  • Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.
  • Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.

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Daily Brief China: Suzhou Novosense Microelectron, L’Occitane, Wuxi Biologics, Atour Lifestyle Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sustaining Outperformance on Expected Impact
  • L’Occitane (973 HK):  Operational Update Shows Strong Growth Momentum
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Latest Updates Related to 2024 Performance Worth the Attention
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) ]: Hotel Scale Leverage Is Still the Main Driver in 2024


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sustaining Outperformance on Expected Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
  • The potential inclusions have dropped but there has been significant outperformance versus the potential deletions. That could continue as positioning continues for the high expected impact on the stocks.

L’Occitane (973 HK):  Operational Update Shows Strong Growth Momentum

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced a strong 3QFY24 operational update last night.  Share price is up 7% today and up 36% since interim results announcement late November last year.
  • Sol de Janeiro, the Brazilian-inspired premium body care brand, continued to shine in the quarter, growing 199% at reported sales and 214% at constant currency. 
  • Recommend to take advantage of the current weak sentiment on such companies trading on the HK stock exchange but are actually not reliant on China in terms of business fundamentals.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Latest Updates Related to 2024 Performance Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Li Ge has begun increasing his holdings, but we’re not sure whether this move is really confident about the prospects of WuXi Bio, or another buy low sell high/capital operation.
  • The actual situation of WuXi Bio is not necessarily optimistic. Due to geopolitical risks, WuXi Bio has to start striving for more domestic orders. However, price reduction seems inevitable.
  • Although WuXi Bio released optimistic expectations for 2024 project number/outlook, there may be another announcement of lower-than-expected performance in the future,which would be a devastating blow to investors’ confidence/management’s credibility.

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) ]: Hotel Scale Leverage Is Still the Main Driver in 2024

By Eric Wen

  • We expect Atour to report 4Q23 revenue 3.5% higher than consensus, and non-GAAP NI 15.1% higher than consensus, mainly due to (1) stable business travellers in tourism off-season;
  • (2) raising retail sales drive up gross margin. We think hotel supply and demand will turn to equilibrium in 2024.
  • Occupancy may stabilize but ADR will fall, especially economy hotels. Atour, however, will be immune to the price fall, in our view.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Bizlink Holding, Samsung SDI, Boeing Co, FTAI Aviation , Jetblue Airways, Epwin Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean FSC’s Official Disclosure of New Treasury Share Regulations & Potential Trading Dynamics
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows
  • Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight
  • Boeing Exposure and Q4 Trends Impacting the Airline Industry
  • Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • JetBlue – Profitability Distant but Scope for Recovery Prospects to Become Clearer Through 2024
  • Epwin Group – Solid H223 leads to useful earnings upgrade


Korean FSC’s Official Disclosure of New Treasury Share Regulations & Potential Trading Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, the Financial Services Commission of Korea announced treasury stock rule improvements: (1) No new share allocation to treasury shares during equity spinoffs. (2) Strengthened disclosure requirements.
  • No mandatory cancellation may disappoint the market. Nevertheless, the decision not to issue new shares during equity spinoffs amplifies the volume targeted during subsequent tender offers, potentially intensifying price impacts.
  • Also, enhanced disclosure for treasury stocks, especially for companies with over 10% holdings, may trigger significant trading events based on pre-information about holdings and disposals.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s flow expectations for the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • Based on current data, I expect there to be one DEL for the TDIV index in March. I also expect the AUM assumption to change.
  • According to my calculations, these changes could collectively trigger index flows of ~US$150mn one-way resulting in some index members expected to have multiple days of volume to trade.

Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight

By Henry Soediarko

  • The de facto beneficiary of the EU EV subsidy, and historically, 46% of the sales were generated from Audi and BMW EVs. 
  • Valuation has hit the trough, but with no positive catalyst in sight, it is difficult to make a bull case for Samsung SDI (006400 KS) .
  • If the EU put up higher trade tariff for Chinese EV, it could jolt up SDI’s share price but until then, stay away. 

Boeing Exposure and Q4 Trends Impacting the Airline Industry

By Bedrock AI

  • Now that the U.S Big 4 airlines have all reported their earnings, let’s look at some of the key trends underpinning the airline industry this quarter.
  • The industry continues to be marred by several macro trends, including a triple whammy of inflation-driven increasing maintenance and labor costs, supply chain issues, and the unreliability of a major supplier (Boeing).
  • Boeing’s perennial woes seemed to be a major point of discussion as every Big 4 airline faced an analyst question about it during their earnings calls.

Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • FTAI’s Module Swap offering is expected to have strong growth potential based on the company’s performance and market conditions.
  • The number of Module Swap customers is projected to increase from 25 in 2022 to potentially 75-100 by 2025.
  • The average number of Module Swap orders per customer is expected to increase from 2 in 2022 to potentially 3 in 2023.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


JetBlue – Profitability Distant but Scope for Recovery Prospects to Become Clearer Through 2024

By Neil Glynn

  • Following JetBlue’s 2023 results, we refresh estimates to reflect a small operating loss and a near-$200m net loss in 2024.
  • Management is focused on cutting costs and restructuring the network, but without meaningful self-help, losses and cash burn may continue in 2025.
  • Liquidity and leverage concerns are significant for JetBlue but we highlight reduced capacity could boost commercial performance as early as 2Q, providing a glimpse of distant recovery prospects.

Epwin Group – Solid H223 leads to useful earnings upgrade

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin Group’s H223 trading was robust and management has navigated inflationary pressures well. As a result we have increased our FY23 and FY24 underlying operating profit estimates by 13.6% and 10.3%, respectively. Longer term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Management action contributed to overall margin expansion, a feature that we expect to continue in FY24. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. It trades on a P/E ratio of 7.4x, some 30% below the long-term average of 10.7x, and yields 6%.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sindoh Co Ltd, Canon Inc, KLA-Tencor Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Sprout Social Inc, Rapid7 Inc, Globalstar Inc, JFrog, Cogent Communications Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Stocks in Korea With Highest Net Cash as Percentage of Market Cap
  • Canon (7751) – OK 2023 Results, Better Guidance, Bigger, Longer, Slower Buyback
  • KLAC. Looks a Lot Like LRCX!
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today
  • Sprout Social: Initiation of Coverage – AI Revolution in Social Media! Sneak Peek into Their Groundbreaking 2024 Features! – Major Drivers
  • Rapid7 Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing the Tech World with Strategic Partnerships – What’s Coming in 2024? – Major Drivers
  • Globalstar: Initiation of Coverage – 5 Surprising Ways This Tech Giant is Revolutionizing Connectivity with Satellite Innovation! – Major Drivers
  • JFrog Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Unleashing the Power of AI in DevOps – A Game-Changer You Can’t Afford to Miss! – Major Drivers
  • Cogent Communications Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – 4 Factors Driving Their Stock Price! – Financial Forecasts


Top 10 Stocks in Korea With Highest Net Cash as Percentage of Market Cap

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the emerging trends in the Korean equity markets in the past several weeks has been the shift out of high beta, high P/E stocks to deep value stocks.
  • In this insight, we will discuss about the top 10 stocks in Korea with highest net cash as percentage of market cap. 
  • These 10 stocks are up on average 2.9% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 5.9% in the same period.

Canon (7751) – OK 2023 Results, Better Guidance, Bigger, Longer, Slower Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced 2023 full-year results on 30 January. Results were mixed. Revenues did OK. Net Profit underperformed expectations. 2024 Net Profit Guidance is 1% higher than consensus.
  • Canon has a 15yr history of one kind of buyback. ¥50bn every time. 19 times in a row. Short (10 weeks max), sharp, executions (executed in 3-5 weeks). Every time. 
  • This time offers a new buyback. ¥100bn. Over the space of a year. That’s only 3% of ADV but the shareholder structure is different than you think it is.

KLAC. Looks a Lot Like LRCX!

By William Keating

  • Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
  • Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
  • Interesting Q&A discussion on backlog. KLAC’s order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch…

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Can TSMC Sustain Extreme ADR Spread?; UMC Results Catalyst Tomorrow

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +13.5% ADR Premium, Historically High Spread Represents Short Opportunity
  • UMC: -0.9% ADR Discount, Results Tomorrow Could Open Up Trade Opportunity
  • ASE: +9.1% Premium, Historically High But Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • UMC & Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax & Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.
  • Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan’s Geopolitical Shift
  • First Run of Tech/Semis’ Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

Sprout Social: Initiation of Coverage – AI Revolution in Social Media! Sneak Peek into Their Groundbreaking 2024 Features! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on web-based social media management solution provider, Sprout Social.
  • In its most recent quarter, a comprehensive social media management software company, delivered positive Q3 results reflecting good progress in meeting their objectives.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Rapid7 Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing the Tech World with Strategic Partnerships – What’s Coming in 2024? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Rapid7, a renowned cybersecurity solutions provider.
  • The company posted its third quarter 2023 financial results, highlighting an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $777 million and a growth of 14% over the previous year.
  • Rapid7 also showcased strong demand for its integrated security operations solutions, particularly its consolidated offerings.

Globalstar: Initiation of Coverage – 5 Surprising Ways This Tech Giant is Revolutionizing Connectivity with Satellite Innovation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on mobile satellite services provider, Globalstar.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
  • We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price.

JFrog Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Unleashing the Power of AI in DevOps – A Game-Changer You Can’t Afford to Miss! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on DevOps platform provider, JFrog.
  • Most importantly, the year-over-year growth of JFrog’s cloud business rose by 46%, contributing $30.6 million to the total revenue.
  • Non-GAAP profit stood at $16.6 million, generating a free cash flow of $25.4 million.

Cogent Communications Holdings: Initiation of Coverage – 4 Factors Driving Their Stock Price! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Cogent Communications Holdings.
  • The company had a decent performance in the third quarter of 2023 highlighting the recent acquisition of the Sprint business on May 1, 2023, which expanded Cogent’s network and customer base and materially increased the scope and scale of their business.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Bizlink Holding, Samsung SDI, Boeing Co, FTAI Aviation , Jetblue Airways, Epwin Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean FSC’s Official Disclosure of New Treasury Share Regulations & Potential Trading Dynamics
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows
  • Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight
  • Boeing Exposure and Q4 Trends Impacting the Airline Industry
  • Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • JetBlue – Profitability Distant but Scope for Recovery Prospects to Become Clearer Through 2024
  • Epwin Group – Solid H223 leads to useful earnings upgrade


Korean FSC’s Official Disclosure of New Treasury Share Regulations & Potential Trading Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, the Financial Services Commission of Korea announced treasury stock rule improvements: (1) No new share allocation to treasury shares during equity spinoffs. (2) Strengthened disclosure requirements.
  • No mandatory cancellation may disappoint the market. Nevertheless, the decision not to issue new shares during equity spinoffs amplifies the volume targeted during subsequent tender offers, potentially intensifying price impacts.
  • Also, enhanced disclosure for treasury stocks, especially for companies with over 10% holdings, may trigger significant trading events based on pre-information about holdings and disposals.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s flow expectations for the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • Based on current data, I expect there to be one DEL for the TDIV index in March. I also expect the AUM assumption to change.
  • According to my calculations, these changes could collectively trigger index flows of ~US$150mn one-way resulting in some index members expected to have multiple days of volume to trade.

Samsung SDI (006400): No Catalyst in Sight

By Henry Soediarko

  • The de facto beneficiary of the EU EV subsidy, and historically, 46% of the sales were generated from Audi and BMW EVs. 
  • Valuation has hit the trough, but with no positive catalyst in sight, it is difficult to make a bull case for Samsung SDI (006400 KS) .
  • If the EU put up higher trade tariff for Chinese EV, it could jolt up SDI’s share price but until then, stay away. 

Boeing Exposure and Q4 Trends Impacting the Airline Industry

By Bedrock AI

  • Now that the U.S Big 4 airlines have all reported their earnings, let’s look at some of the key trends underpinning the airline industry this quarter.
  • The industry continues to be marred by several macro trends, including a triple whammy of inflation-driven increasing maintenance and labor costs, supply chain issues, and the unreliability of a major supplier (Boeing).
  • Boeing’s perennial woes seemed to be a major point of discussion as every Big 4 airline faced an analyst question about it during their earnings calls.

Ftai Aviation Ltd (FTAI) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • FTAI’s Module Swap offering is expected to have strong growth potential based on the company’s performance and market conditions.
  • The number of Module Swap customers is projected to increase from 25 in 2022 to potentially 75-100 by 2025.
  • The average number of Module Swap orders per customer is expected to increase from 2 in 2022 to potentially 3 in 2023.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


JetBlue – Profitability Distant but Scope for Recovery Prospects to Become Clearer Through 2024

By Neil Glynn

  • Following JetBlue’s 2023 results, we refresh estimates to reflect a small operating loss and a near-$200m net loss in 2024.
  • Management is focused on cutting costs and restructuring the network, but without meaningful self-help, losses and cash burn may continue in 2025.
  • Liquidity and leverage concerns are significant for JetBlue but we highlight reduced capacity could boost commercial performance as early as 2Q, providing a glimpse of distant recovery prospects.

Epwin Group – Solid H223 leads to useful earnings upgrade

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin Group’s H223 trading was robust and management has navigated inflationary pressures well. As a result we have increased our FY23 and FY24 underlying operating profit estimates by 13.6% and 10.3%, respectively. Longer term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Management action contributed to overall margin expansion, a feature that we expect to continue in FY24. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. It trades on a P/E ratio of 7.4x, some 30% below the long-term average of 10.7x, and yields 6%.


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Daily Brief Financials: Guoco Group Ltd, UOL Group, Road King Infrastructure, Bank Central Asia, Goldman Sachs Group, Krung Thai Bank Pub, S&P 500 INDEX, THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14, Russell 2000 Index, Martin Currie Portfolio Invest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Guoco (53 HK): Fourth Time’s A Charm?
  • UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Road King Infrastructure
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Transacting for a Hybrid Society
  • Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)
  • Thai Banks 4Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai, Switch Out of Ayudhya into Kasikorn
  • EQD | SPX WEEKLY Rally Is About to Stop (Temporarily), Then Continue Into April
  • Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers
  • Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples
  • Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust – High-quality equity offering in an uncertain world


Guoco (53 HK): Fourth Time’s A Charm?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Conglomerate Guoco Group (53 HK) has fielded three privatisation Offers from Guoline (the Quek family) over the past twenty years. 
  • Elliott Advisors, then holding 9.72% of shares out, backed the most recent Offer of HK$135/share in November 2018; but it was voted down at a Scheme Meeting. 
  • Elliott has now, surprisingly, exited. This may open the door for a fourth Offer. Shares popped 14% on the news.  

UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas

  • UOL Group (UOL SP) has underperformed its Singapore peers and the drop in market cap could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
  • UOL Group (UOL SP) has traded higher since end October and there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume on the stock since then.
  • UOL Group (UOL SP) trades richer than its closest peer, City Developments (CIT SP), on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA. The recent outperformance presents a trading opportunity.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Transacting for a Hybrid Society

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) booked a strong finish to the year with PPOP rising by +15.4% YoY and zero provisioning in 4Q2023, driven by loan growth of +13.9% YoY. 
  • The bank’s net interest income grew by +19.5% YoY, with a stable NIM of 5.5% in 4Q2023 and CASA growth of +4.3% YoY, bringing the CASA ratio to 80.3%.
  • BCA remains a core holding amongst Indonesian banks, with conservative bank guidance of +9%-10% loan growth, stable NIMs and CoC in 2024. Valuations reflect bank returns and quality.

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

By Pranay Yadav

  • Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.
  • Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.
  • Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.

Thai Banks 4Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai, Switch Out of Ayudhya into Kasikorn

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai has solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios
  • We add Kasikorn to the buy list, as its cost of risk sharply improved in 4Q23, suggesting that it peaked in 3Q23; this should improve post-provision returns going forward
  • We remove Ayudhya from the buy list, as its worsening cost of risk trends are eroding post-provision returns; it is also relatively weak in terms of capital adequacy

EQD | SPX WEEKLY Rally Is About to Stop (Temporarily), Then Continue Into April

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, it may continue higher this week or the next but a pullback is behind the corner.
  • Currently the index has reached beyond the Q3 resistance target (4897) and it’s up 4 weeks in a row.
  • Cover your LONG holdings for the upcoming pullback, going SHORT is also possible but maybe won’t be much profitable as we expect the index main rally to last into April.

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

By Warut Promboon

  • Here we are revisiting the Thai bond market, as per requests from our Thai readers, to see the impact of the global rate trajectory on Thailand.
  • The Thai bond market will remain unattractive to foreign institutional investors, in our view.
  • The attempt to increase yield should involve a material change in Thailand’s financial structure and regulatory mindset.

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
  • Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
  • Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property & Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more

Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust – High-quality equity offering in an uncertain world

By Edison Investment Research

Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust’s (MNP’s) manager Zehrid Osmani was correct in his assumption that investors were too conservative in 2023; global equities delivered an above-average total return led by large-cap US technology stocks. However, he believes that the consensus outlook for 2024 is too bullish given economic uncertainty and increasing geopolitical risks. The manager’s view is that with inflation remaining elevated, western central banks will not reduce interest rates until the second half of 2024, which is likely to cause disappointment and stock market volatility. With such an investment backdrop, he stresses the importance of focusing on high-quality companies with structural growth opportunities and strong balance sheets that can weather the prevailing headwinds.


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Daily Brief Health Care: LianBio, Harrow Health , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Cipla Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lianbio -Ads (LIAN) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • Harrow Inc (HROW) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead
  • Cipla (CIPLA IN): Q3FY24 Result- Continued Growth Trajectory Across Key Markets; Positive Outlook


Lianbio -Ads (LIAN) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • LianBio is winding down its portfolio of in-licensed drug candidates and returning cash to shareholders.
  • The company recently sold exclusive rights to develop and commercialize mavacamten in certain areas of Asia to Bristol Myers Squibb for $350 million.
  • LianBio will have approximately $600 million in net cash after the transaction, exceeding its current market capitalization of around $434 million. A strategic review is ongoing, and it is expected that the company will wind down its business and distribute cash to shareholders, potentially leading to a higher share price reflecting its cash holdings.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Harrow Inc (HROW) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Harrow is a pharmaceutical company specializing in prescription medications for ophthalmologists and optometrists.
  • The company offers FDA-approved branded ophthalmic pharmaceuticals and innovative compounded prescription medicines.
  • Harrow owns commercial rights to ten branded ophthalmic pharmaceutical products and operates ImprimisRx, a pharmaceutical-compounding business.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pientzehuang’s 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.
  • In the process of China’s de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.
  • Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Q3FY24 Result- Continued Growth Trajectory Across Key Markets; Positive Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q3FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) recorded revenue of INR66B, up 14% YoY, and EBITDA margin of 24.2%, driven by double-digit growth across India, North America, and South Africa.
  • North America business reported highest ever revenue of $230M. India revenue is up 12% YoY, supported by growth across branded prescription, trade generics, and consumer health.
  • EBITDA margin for the full year is trending at a higher end of earlier guidance range of 23–24%. Peptide product launches in the U.S. should strengthen near-term growth prospect.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , Ola Electric, Avanti Feeds, FirstCry, Koss , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, O’Reilly Automotive and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business
  • Ola Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still a Long Road Ahead with Ample Competition
  • Shrimp Industry Shakeup: Ecuador Crisis Sparks Opportunities for Indian Seafood Companies
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Koss Corp (KOSS) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023
  • To Raise ROE, Breaking Away from Familiar Relationships and Creating Tension in Management Is Key
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) – Wednesday, Nov 1, 2023


Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.
  • We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.
  • We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.

Ola Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still a Long Road Ahead with Ample Competition

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Shrimp Industry Shakeup: Ecuador Crisis Sparks Opportunities for Indian Seafood Companies

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Ecuador’s crisis, driven by violence and narco-gang threats, impacts the global seafood supply chain, especially the lucrative shrimp exports sector.
  • Resilient amid challenges, India holds its position as the second-largest global shrimp producer, balancing opportunities and persistent challenges in logistics and competition.
  • Investors urged caution in the Indian seafood boom, yet potential opportunities arise from Ecuador’s supply disruptions, with reduced import duty enhancing India’s competitiveness.

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • FirstCry (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, has filed for a US$700 million IPO. 
  • In Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on the worrying trend of India’s KPIs, margin pressures, cash burn, and deteriorating balance sheet strength. 

Koss Corp (KOSS) – Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The litigation industry is filing lawsuits against companies that manufacture consumer headphones, including major players like Apple, Bose, and Skullcandy.
  • The company in focus has filed lawsuits against several headphone manufacturers and has settled with Apple and Plantronics, earning around $11.0 million in net proceeds.
  • Despite being in a declining industry, the company is currently trading as a net-net and has hidden asset value, suggesting potential upside value of up to 75%, with a downside value only slightly lower than its current levels.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


To Raise ROE, Breaking Away from Familiar Relationships and Creating Tension in Management Is Key

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If the ISS ROE criteria, which seems somewhat slow, were to be resumed, many companies would still be below 5%. However, how many companies are feeling threatened?
  • About 40% of the companies have large shareholders holding more than 20% of their shares, which is one reason why many companies do not feel a sense of threat.
  • Domestic institutional investors should apply the Proxy Voting Guidelines more strictly to companies that do not make maximum efforts to increase their ROE.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) – Wednesday, Nov 1, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • O’Reilly Automotive is a retail company specializing in automotive aftermarket parts and services.
  • The company has over 6,000 stores in the US and Mexico, making it one of the largest retailers and suppliers in the industry.
  • O’Reilly Automotive offers both do-it-yourself and professional services for a wide range of domestic and imported automobiles.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief ESG: To Raise ROE and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • To Raise ROE, Breaking Away from Familiar Relationships and Creating Tension in Management Is Key


To Raise ROE, Breaking Away from Familiar Relationships and Creating Tension in Management Is Key

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If the ISS ROE criteria, which seems somewhat slow, were to be resumed, many companies would still be below 5%. However, how many companies are feeling threatened?
  • About 40% of the companies have large shareholders holding more than 20% of their shares, which is one reason why many companies do not feel a sense of threat.
  • Domestic institutional investors should apply the Proxy Voting Guidelines more strictly to companies that do not make maximum efforts to increase their ROE.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results – Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pientzehuang’s 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.
  • In the process of China’s de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.
  • Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.

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