Daily Briefs

• Want Want (151 HK) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) are both fairly liquid names in the China consumer staples sector. 
• Both companies trade at virtually the same forward PE of 14x.  However, I expect Want Want’s near term sales growth to be lower than market expectations.  
• The upside risk for Want Want could be its overseas expansion efforts, as overseas sales now account for mid to high-single-digit of sales and grew high-teens yoy in FY1H24. 

• The high growth in 23H1 is unsustainable. 23H2 YoY revenue growth would be single-digit. Due to 23H1’s high base, we cannot rule out the possibility of negative growth in 24H1.
• In the case of lower-than-expected external M&A activities, Fu Shou Yuan has accumulated a large amount of cash, which would drag down ROE. So, current dividend policy still needs improvement. 
• Fu Shou Yuan’s expansion would be relatively moderate. Double-digit revenue growth can still be expected in the long term. The market value of above RMB15 billion is more reasonable. 

• H World Group (1179 HK) has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.
• Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.
• 55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.