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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote
  • Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
  • Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?


Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ “merger of equals” with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world’s fifth largest lithium producer.
  • Allkem’s Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem’s board unanimously recommends the transaction. 
  • This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. 

Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters
  • The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
  • The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were  trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
  • OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
  • They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again
  • Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?
  • [Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results
  • Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay
  • Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle
  • SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.
  • HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly
  • Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges
  • How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland
  • [KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain


Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again

By Travis Lundy

  • INCJ made a lot of money on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) over the years and arguably did a great job helping the firm change direction. Now they are out.
  • Last night they launched a block sale through JPM and Bof A for 130.2317mm shares. They priced the heavily-oversubscribed deal at a discount of 8% or ¥2143/share. 
  • That’s a big discount (so bad broking) for such oversubscription on a clearly-flagged deal but now they are out. 

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

By Pranay Yadav

  • First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
  • Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or “Generative Pre-trained Transformer.”
  • Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

By Eric Wen

  • We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
  • We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent’s advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
  • We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.

Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay

By Pranay Yadav

  • OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.
  • The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.
  • Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They’ll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.

Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT) is a vertically integrated textile company, with around 20% net profit margin, similar to Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK).
  • The company just reported 3Q23 results, with sales down 26% yoy and net profit down 28% yoy.  Starting the next quarter 4Q23, the company is expected to return to growth.
  • The company now trades at 23x 2024E earnings.  I believe the valuation is reasonable as growth returns, and there are potential upside catalysts. 

SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
  • SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. 
  • Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.

HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly

By William Keating

  • Revenues of US$568.5 million, down 10% sequentially and down 9.7% YoY, at the bottom of the previously guided range.
  • Net loss of $25.8 million compared to a profit of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and $65.5 million in the year ago period.
  • With current quarter gross margins in the 2-5% range, HHGrace has flipped from best in class in H123 to the worst in class now.

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements
  • Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value
  • Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2

How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland

By Caixin Global

  • Foxconn is facing one of its biggest compliance challenges on the Chinese mainland, where the key iPhone assembler has been caught in the crosshairs of government investigators.
  • Multiple Foxconn-affiliated entities are being investigated by Chinese authorities as part of probes into the company’s mainland facilities, Caixin confirmed Monday with Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd., the Taiwanese contract manufacturer’s Shanghai-listed arm.
  • State-owned newspaper Global Times first reported Sunday that Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., was facing tax and land-use probes into its mainland facilities.

[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.
  • We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;
  • We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.

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Daily Brief Macro: Do Not SNOOZE the SLOOS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Do Not SNOOZE the SLOOS
  • Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play
  • Portfolio Watch: Staying Afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty


Do Not SNOOZE the SLOOS

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Based on the correlation with the ISM Manufacturing Index, dismissing the SLOOS as a useless macro indicator is a bit too easy.
  • Even though lending standards did not tighten as much as the previous quarter, current levels point to elevated odds of a US recession.
  • SLOOS also confirms the start of a new default cycle, revealing that high-yield bond spreads are way too low, especially when the spread widening of CMBS is taken into account.

Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play

By Andreas Steno

  • Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?
  • Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.
  • The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme.

Portfolio Watch: Staying Afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty

By Emil Moller

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we dive into the latest market trends and candidly assess our portfolio. All the talk in town is the US Treasury market and it seems no matter where you place your chips you are effectively trading the momentum of US bonds, if not directly then by proxy.
  • As a token of the current uncertainty within the safest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world, yesterday’s howler of a 30-year treasury auction stands out as an example of just how on-edge nerves are in the financial markets these days.
  • If the 30y auction was a reality check on the duration appetite we can only imagine the actual consequences of a standard QRA issuance plan and not the heavy bill-tilted one that Secretary Yellen ended up presenting.

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Daily Brief Australia: Australis Oil & Gas and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Australis Oil & Gas Limited – Oil Prices and M&A on the Up


Australis Oil & Gas Limited – Oil Prices and M&A on the Up

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Australis Oil & Gas (ASX:ATS) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with a strategic and controlling position in the emerging Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) oil play, onshore US.
  • The TMS is an Eagle Ford-equivalent but early-stage oil play with gross recoverable oil potential of around 7bn barrels – this is likely to be the next big thing.
  • Australis represents a highly- leveraged and attractive exposure to the transformational potential of the TMS oil play. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, Ecoeye and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea
  • Ecoeye IPO Book Building Results Analysis


Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • During the previous period of short-selling restrictions, a pattern was observed in which ETFs were utilized as a workaround for short-selling.
  • We should anticipate more substantial price impacts this time. Of particular significance is the possibility of utilizing not only the MSCI Korea ETF but also sector ETFs for similar purposes.
  • This calls for our attention to the possibility that this short-selling workaround could generate a significantly wider range of trading opportunities in the spot market compared to three years ago.

Ecoeye IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecoeye announced that the IPO price has been determined at 34,700 won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. The demand ratio was 75 to 1.
  • An 81.1% of the IPO shares applied thought that the company’s value is more than 34,700 won per share. The IPO offering amount is 72 billion won.
  • Our base case valuation of Ecoeye IPO is 45,421 won per share (31% higher than the IPO price). Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of Ecoeye IPO. 

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Daily Brief United States: ACM Research, Duolingo, Bank Of America, Inter Parfums, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • [ACM Research (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Review]: Korea and US Are the Next Battlefields
  • Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results
  • Investors Have Been Buried Their Head in The Sand on Billions of Unrealized HTM Losses
  • IPAR: Sales Trajectory Ahead of Estimates
  • SES AI Corp. – 3Q23 Results


[ACM Research (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Review]: Korea and US Are the Next Battlefields

By Eric Wen

  • ACMR reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP EBIT, GAAP net profit (5%), 21%, in-line vs. our est., and (3%), 63%, 49% vs. cons., respectively. Gross margin beat by +9ppts due to FX.
  • ACMR received a second order from a U.S. semiconductor maker, which indicates potential for significant market share gain by 2025. SK Hynix is engaging its entire product line, per management.
  • We maintain BUY rating and US$ 30 TP, implying 18x FY23 EV/Earnings.

Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. 
  • Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. 
  • With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.

Investors Have Been Buried Their Head in The Sand on Billions of Unrealized HTM Losses

By Fern Wang

  • Unrealized HTM losses continued to balloon as interest rates crept higher.
  • What has caused SVB’s demise seems to have now been forgotten and ignored by investors.
  • We took a deep dive into 3 U.S. Banks, First Foundation, Wells Fargo and Bank of America on their HTM losses.

IPAR: Sales Trajectory Ahead of Estimates

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR benefited from consumers continuing to purchase fragrances in the third quarter and retailers beginning to stock inventory for the holiday shopping season
  • IPAR reported third quarter sales of $368.0 million in line with what the Company had previously disclosed in October
  • IPAR has several new product introductions in 2024 and begins to generate sales from Roberto Cavalli and Lacoste brands as well, which should result in IPAR growing sales in 2024

SES AI Corp. – 3Q23 Results

By Water Tower Research

  • SES has made significant advancements in engineering and materials, particularly in the cathode, resulting in high stability and improved safety for high Ni cathodes.
  • The company has also developed new technologies for pouch cell engineering, electrolyte, lithium metal anode protection, and charging protocols, reducing the risks associated with thermal runaway in both Li-Metal and Li-ion batteries.
  • Despite the challenges and the trade-off between energy density and safety in the battery industry, SES aims to improve safety without compromising other parameters, opting for a high-energy density approach and overcoming difficulties to achieve its goal.

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Most Read: KOSDAQ 150 Index, Renesas Electronics, Trend Micro Inc, Eoptolink Technology , Ps Mitsubishi Construction, iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, Cybernet Systems Co, WuXi XDC Cayman , Li Auto and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?
  • Renesas Electronics Placement – Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help
  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected
  • Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround
  • P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea
  • Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095
  • Wuxi XDC IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

By Brian Freitas

  • Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
  • A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
  • Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.

Renesas Electronics Placement – Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help

By Ethan Aw

  • INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been paring down its stake. 
  • The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 12 days of three month ADV and around 6% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected

By Brian Freitas


Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

By Travis Lundy

  • Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.
  • They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn’t going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.
  • Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
  • Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
  • The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.

P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)/PSMIC announced a partial tender offer for Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,010 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The partial offer is for a minimum of 20.4 million shares (42.94% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 23.8 million shares (50.20% ownership ratio). 
  • Irrevocables represent a 42.94% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is attractive and represents a ten-year high. The tender offer runs from 10 November to 11 December.

Spotlight on Trading Prospects Arising from ETFs as Short Selling Workarounds in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • During the previous period of short-selling restrictions, a pattern was observed in which ETFs were utilized as a workaround for short-selling.
  • We should anticipate more substantial price impacts this time. Of particular significance is the possibility of utilizing not only the MSCI Korea ETF but also sector ETFs for similar purposes.
  • This calls for our attention to the possibility that this short-selling workaround could generate a significantly wider range of trading opportunities in the spot market compared to three years ago.

Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095

By Arun George

  • Cybernet Systems Co (4312 JP) has recommended Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,095 per share, a 31.8% premium to the undisturbed price (8 November).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 12.28% ownership ratio.
  • The offer price is attractive and marginally below the ten-year share price high. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 26.9% minority acceptance rate, which is doable.

Wuxi XDC IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Wuxi plans to issue 178.4m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$19.9-20.6 per share and will raise net proceeds of US$479m at the midpoint of the IPO price.
  • The company’s revenues have seen robust growth during the last 3-years driven by growth in ADC outsourcing market while margins have continued to decline.
  • We have valued WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) using a DCF valuation which offers price per share of HK$23.44, 15.7% higher than the midpoint of the IPO price of HK$20.25.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

By Eric Wen

  • Two days before Huawei and Chery releasing their Luxeed S7 sedan to rival Model 3, LI unveiled the technical details of its MPV entry MEGA; 
  • We see MEGA taking a meaningful market share from BYD’s Denza D9, GM’s GL8, GAC’s Trumpchi M8, all selling ~10K a month. We raise MEGA’s 2024 shipment to 57K;
  • We raise LI’s TP from US$40 to US$47 and maintain BUY.

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Daily Brief China: Irc Ltd, WuXi XDC Cayman , Li Auto , Chenqi Technology Limited, MGM China Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IRC Limited (1029 HK): Mandatory Conditional Offer from the Chairman
  • Wuxi XDC IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape
  • IRC (1029 HK): MBO’s MGO. Look Away …
  • Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – Listing Would Almost Feel like a Pipe Dream
  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Softbank Group, Sunny Optical Technology Group


IRC Limited (1029 HK): Mandatory Conditional Offer from the Chairman

By Arun George

  • Irc Ltd (1029 HK) has announced a mandatory conditional offer from Nikolai Levitskii (Chairman) at HK$0.118 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price (1 November). 
  • The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights.  The offeror currently represents 30.61% of outstanding shares.
  • The offer looks light vs long-term trading ranges. The minimum acceptance threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 27.9% (36.8% if MIC Invest does not tender), which is not onerous.

Wuxi XDC IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Wuxi plans to issue 178.4m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$19.9-20.6 per share and will raise net proceeds of US$479m at the midpoint of the IPO price.
  • The company’s revenues have seen robust growth during the last 3-years driven by growth in ADC outsourcing market while margins have continued to decline.
  • We have valued WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) using a DCF valuation which offers price per share of HK$23.44, 15.7% higher than the midpoint of the IPO price of HK$20.25.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

By Eric Wen

  • Two days before Huawei and Chery releasing their Luxeed S7 sedan to rival Model 3, LI unveiled the technical details of its MPV entry MEGA; 
  • We see MEGA taking a meaningful market share from BYD’s Denza D9, GM’s GL8, GAC’s Trumpchi M8, all selling ~10K a month. We raise MEGA’s 2024 shipment to 57K;
  • We raise LI’s TP from US$40 to US$47 and maintain BUY.

IRC (1029 HK): MBO’s MGO. Look Away …

By David Blennerhassett

  • Nikolai Levitskii, Russian iron-ore play IRC Ltd (1029 HK)‘s chairman and largest shareholder, has acquired 4.72% of shares out, lifting his stake above 30%, triggering an MGO. 
  • The Offer price of HK$0.118/share, a 32.58% to last close, is the same price paid for the stake increase. 
  • The Offer is conditional on Levitskii holding more than 50% of shares out. His intention is to maintain IRC’s listing. 

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – Listing Would Almost Feel like a Pipe Dream

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent. 
  • Chenqi has grown its GTV fast on the back of network expansion. However, Dida’s inability to list and Chinese regulators’ scrutiny on Didi would likely dent sentiment surrounding Chenqi. 

Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, Softbank Group, Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Doms and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • DOMS Industries Pre-IPO – Strong Earnings Growth but Will Probably Peter Out


DOMS Industries Pre-IPO – Strong Earnings Growth but Will Probably Peter Out

By Sumeet Singh

  • Doms (DOMS IN) is looking to raise around US$140m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • DOMS is a leading player and brand in India’s stationery and art products market. It designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of products, primarily under its flagship brand ‘DOMS’.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Japan: Renesas Electronics, Trend Micro Inc, Ps Mitsubishi Construction, Cybernet Systems Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas Electronics Placement – Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help
  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected
  • Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip
  • P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095
  • Prime Market Is Still the Market with the Most Listed Companies Even After 171 Companies Are Removed


Renesas Electronics Placement – Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help

By Ethan Aw

  • INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been paring down its stake. 
  • The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 12 days of three month ADV and around 6% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected

By Brian Freitas


Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

By Travis Lundy

  • Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.
  • They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn’t going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.
  • Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.

P.S. Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP): Taisei’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)/PSMIC announced a partial tender offer for Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,010 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The partial offer is for a minimum of 20.4 million shares (42.94% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 23.8 million shares (50.20% ownership ratio). 
  • Irrevocables represent a 42.94% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is attractive and represents a ten-year high. The tender offer runs from 10 November to 11 December.

Cybernet Systems (4312 JP): Fuji Soft’s Tender Offer at JPY1,095

By Arun George

  • Cybernet Systems Co (4312 JP) has recommended Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,095 per share, a 31.8% premium to the undisturbed price (8 November).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 12.28% ownership ratio.
  • The offer price is attractive and marginally below the ten-year share price high. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 26.9% minority acceptance rate, which is doable.

Prime Market Is Still the Market with the Most Listed Companies Even After 171 Companies Are Removed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The baseless confidence of the 177 companies that finally moved to Standard Market that their market capitalization would increase in18 months was nothing more than a waste of time.
  • It is fine for a company to aim to be listed on the highest prime market, but high shareholder returns and quality management must come first.
  • If the listing criteria for prime market was JPY100 billion market capitalization, the gap with investors who initially expected prime market before the market restructuring would have been much smaller.

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