Daily Briefs

• On 31 August, I published Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks. It’s up 40.6% since the day after I wrote, reasons unclear.  
• TOPIX Banks Index is up 10.4% since then, with post-BOJ meeting price movements indicating a kind of momiai.
• For Rakuten Bank, while growth means it may not be “expensive” it is no longer dirt cheap. And I cannot identify the culprit, so time to take profits. 

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Yantai North Andre Juice H (2218 HK).

• Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
• In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note and share our thoughts on valuation.

• IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN) plans to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23, as per media reports. 
• On 22nd Sep 23, IFR had reported that IDFC First Bank is looking to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to raise up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23. 
• In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.

• JPEX may be the biggest financial fraud in Hong Kong’s history, impacting government’s ambition to become a global centre for virtual assets
• SFC appeared to have no direct jurisdiction and powerless in the protection of investors in the JPEX case
• Web 3.0 and Virtual Assets are rapidly evolving, regulators may need to take a more dynamic approach in regulating such activities

• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the September 2023 Rebalance.
• I currently do not see any index changes for DAX but Fresenius Medical Care & (FME GR) and Zalando (ZAL GR) are close to being an ADD and DELETE respectively.
• I see one change for the MDAX index. Separately, there could be up to three SDAX change in the run up to the December 2023 review including one intra-review change.

• The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
• Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at <=324, the index will have a >75% probability to close the next week up.
• Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach <300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.

• Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), one of India’s largest NBFCs, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a QIP.
• Bajaj Finance is an NBFC offering auto, consumer and home loans, along with other products as well.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and recent updates.

• Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
• OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources
• Yuexiu Property