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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: EcoPro Materials, HMM Co., Ltd., Dongwon Industries, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Celltrion and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion
  • Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date
  • Three IPO Candidates of the Dongwon Group (StarKist, Dongwon Loex, and Dongwon Home Food)
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD
  • Celltrion (068270 KP): Improving Base Business Is Being Overlooked by Mr. Market Amid Merger Noises


EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) was founded in 2017 and specializes in manufacturing cathode material precursors, a core material for lithium secondary cells.
  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) could raise between US$387m-US$492m, valuing the company between US$1.9bn-US$2.42bn. Float will depend on voluntary lock-ups and allocation to strategic investors.
  • Inclusion in global indices is likely to take place between February to June, while the highest probability of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusion is in December 2024.

Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM’s New Stock Listing Date

By Sanghyun Park

  • Should the stock conversion decision be reached this week, the new shares will be listed on the 15th of the upcoming month. So, they will officially debut on October 16th.
  • On the day of the new share listing during the immediate previous case, the price dropped by 2.36%, and on the very next trading day, it declined by 3.72%.
  • Given the present dilution rate of 30%, there is a higher probability of even more pronounced price movements in the same direction.

Three IPO Candidates of the Dongwon Group (StarKist, Dongwon Loex, and Dongwon Home Food)

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported in the local Korean media that the Dongwon Group is considering on listing three private companies including Starkist, Dongwon Loex, and Dongwon Home Food.
  • Prior to their IPOs, Dongwon Group is reviewing the potential of selling partial stakes in these companies in pre-IPO investments.
  • One of the major purposes of the IPOs would be to gain access to more capital which could be used by the Dongwon Group to acquire HMM. 

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
  • Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at <=324, the index will have a >75% probability to close the next week up.
  • Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach <300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.

Celltrion (068270 KP): Improving Base Business Is Being Overlooked by Mr. Market Amid Merger Noises

By Tina Banerjee

  • As Celltrion (068270 KP) approaches merger clarity, focus will shift to its base business, which remains solid. In Q2 2023, biosimilar, the flagship business, reported a 10% YoY growth.
  • Operating profit margin expanded 440bps YoY to 34.9%. Margins are expected to improve further through increasing contribution from high-margin products such as Yuflyma (Humira biosimilar) and Remsima SC.
  • Celltrion expects to receive approval for Remsima SC in the U.S. by end of October, which should act as a major catalyst. By 2030, merged entity targets revenue of KRW12T.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Glass Half Full Again?


Sea Ltd (SE US) – Glass Half Full Again?

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.
  • TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.
  • Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with FreeFire. 

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Daily Brief China: Sun Hung Kai Properties, CK Infrastructure Holdings, Tian Tu Capital, Kanzhun, Bitcoin, Gree Electric Appliances, Onewo , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Sipai Health Technology, UMP Healthcare and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North
  • StubWorld: CK Infra Vs. Power Assets
  • Tian Tu Capital IPO – Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited
  • Kanzhun (2076 HK): A Monitor of Job Market in China
  • The JPEX Debacle Placed Hong Kong’s Ambition to Become a Global Virtual Assets Centre in Doubt
  • Gree (000651 CH):  Resilient Fundamentals; Rerating Potential In A Low Interest Rate Environment
  • Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic
  • Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Valuation Has Collapsed, but a Reversal Is Not yet in Sight
  • UMP Healthcare 722 HK: Weak Q4 Lead to A Disappointing FY23, Worst Behind Us


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (26 Sept): Kwoks Buying Sun Hung Kai; ED Selling Yantai North

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Yantai North Andre Juice H (2218 HK).

StubWorld: CK Infra Vs. Power Assets

By David Blennerhassett

  • Because of significant business overlap, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) looks very similar to Power Assets Holdings (6 HK). And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH. 
  • Preceding my comments on CKI/PAH are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Tian Tu Capital IPO – Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited

By Clarence Chu

  • Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
  • In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note and share our thoughts on valuation.

Kanzhun (2076 HK): A Monitor of Job Market in China

By Ming Lu

  • Kanzhun or Boss Zhipin, is the largest online recruiting platform for white collar workers.
  • Users exceeded servers’ capacity for the third time this year.
  • The positive signal is that recruiters began to grow in 2Q23.

The JPEX Debacle Placed Hong Kong’s Ambition to Become a Global Virtual Assets Centre in Doubt

By Fern Wang

  • JPEX may be the biggest financial fraud in Hong Kong’s history, impacting government’s ambition to become a global centre for virtual assets
  • SFC appeared to have no direct jurisdiction and powerless in the protection of investors in the JPEX case
  • Web 3.0 and Virtual Assets are rapidly evolving, regulators may need to take a more dynamic approach in regulating such activities

Gree (000651 CH):  Resilient Fundamentals; Rerating Potential In A Low Interest Rate Environment

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH) trades at the lowest valuation multiple among the three major home appliance companies in China, at 7x forward PE and 7% forward yield.
  • Investment case rests on stable earnings growth and high dividend payout and yield, which works well in a low interest rate environment in China.
  • Resiliency of earnings for Gree is under-appreciated by the market, making rerating possible.

Onewo IPO Lock-Up – US$1bn+ Lockup Release, Parent Could Still Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
  • OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) has rallied sharply on strong earnings recovery, but this is too excessive. We think unrealistic expectation has been built on 2H23 earnings.
  • Over the last three months, the spot VLCC rate has collapsed by 90%, indicating a weakened demand outlook. The resilient share price has clearly not yet factored in this movement. 
  • The recent surge in crude oil is driven by supply, not demand, factors. This has led to a 14% increase in bunker price which will heighten CSET’s fuel bill.  

Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) – Valuation Has Collapsed, but a Reversal Is Not yet in Sight

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The reason why there are many doubts about Sipai is that its Specialty Pharmacy Business accounts for dominant proportion of total revenue but is almost difficult to make a profit.
  • Sipai’s SMO business revenue will be difficult to grow at scale due to industry characteristics and the Health Insurance Services business is too small to bring substantial changes to performance.
  • Sipai’s revenue structure/business model is difficult to improve in the short term. So it’s not surprising if Sipai suffers long-term losses. Its valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr.

UMP Healthcare 722 HK: Weak Q4 Lead to A Disappointing FY23, Worst Behind Us

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported FY23 profits down 26% YoY at 55 mn HKD, impacted by preoperating expenses and an impairment cumulatively of 40 mn HKD. 
  • A slow Q4 FY23 didn’t help either; revenues came in flat HoH instead of up 10% as our expectations and costs increased resulting in margin compression. 
  • We believe the worst is behind us. The stock trades at 5.9x FY24 PE, with ~50% of the market cap in cash and an FY24 dividend yield of 8.5%.

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Daily Brief India: IDFC First Bank Limited, Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IDFC First Bank Early Look – Likely to Be an Accretive Deal but Not Particularly Cheap
  • Entero Healthcare Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Bajaj Finance US$1bn QIP Early Look -Doesn’t Really Need the Raise, All past Deals Have Done Well
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property


IDFC First Bank Early Look – Likely to Be an Accretive Deal but Not Particularly Cheap

By Ethan Aw

  • IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN) plans to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23, as per media reports. 
  • On 22nd Sep 23, IFR had reported that IDFC First Bank is looking to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to raise up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.

Entero Healthcare Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited (2294842D IN)  is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI Securities, DAM Capital, Jefferies, JM Financial, SBI Capital.
  • Entero Healthcare Solutions (Entero) is a healthcare products distributor in India.
  • As per the CRISIL report in the DRHP, Entero is amongst the top three healthcare products distributors in India in terms of FY22 revenue.

Bajaj Finance US$1bn QIP Early Look -Doesn’t Really Need the Raise, All past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), one of India’s largest NBFCs, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a QIP.
  • Bajaj Finance is an NBFC offering auto, consumer and home loans, along with other products as well.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and recent updates.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Dollar Index, Boku Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns
  • Boku – Upgraded outlook for FY23


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
  • Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
  • Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI

Boku – Upgraded outlook for FY23

By Edison Investment Research

Boku reported H123 revenue growth of 26% y-o-y to $38.2m, with a growing and now material contribution from local payment methods (LPMs). Adjusted EBITDA was 28% higher and the margin expanded by 0.7pp, as upside from higher revenues was partially offset by further investment to support LPMs. We have revised up our forecasts to reflect faster growth in total payment volumes (TPV) partially offset by higher investment in Boku’s payments network.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Stocks Higher and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Stocks Higher, 10Y Yields Rise Too; JAPAN X – Toyota Embraces Gigacasting
  • China TMT Update-700.HK/NTES.US.2400.HK.ZTO/2352/BABA/PDD/U-Game Code/Parcel Volume Remains Strong
  • China TMT Update-NIO/BYD/XPEV/NIO/TSLA-August EV Export Growth Decelerated/NIO’ S Sales in Europe
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – SCS Results Boost Commercial/Contract Furniture Sector
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 22, 2023


Ohayo Japan: Stocks Higher, 10Y Yields Rise Too; JAPAN X – Toyota Embraces Gigacasting

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%;  stocks shrug off moves in the bond market as 10-Years hit 4.54%, highest level since 2007
  • JAPAN: NKY futs -0.6% v cash, JPY 148/$; PM Kishida unveils new tax breaks for semiconductor production
  • JAPAN X:  Toyota is making significant strides in revolutionizing its electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing with the adoption of “gigacasting” technology

China TMT Update-700.HK/NTES.US.2400.HK.ZTO/2352/BABA/PDD/U-Game Code/Parcel Volume Remains Strong

By Shawn Yang

  • HK 700/NTES US/HK 02400: NPPA has released the game code approvals for September, but Tencent and NetEase is not on the list (-)/(-)/(+).   
  • ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume remains strong, grew 23% YoY last week (+)
  • U: Unity Issues Formal Apology and Adjusts Previous Runtime Fee Plans (-)

China TMT Update-NIO/BYD/XPEV/NIO/TSLA-August EV Export Growth Decelerated/NIO’ S Sales in Europe

By Shawn Yang

  • NIO :NIO’ s sales in Europe grew rapidly in August(+)
  • BYD/XPEV/NIO/TSLA: Chinese new energy vehicles no longer meet French electric vehicle subsidy standards(-)
  • August EV export growth decelerated, batttery export growth rebound while inverter in price war (-)

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads

By Shawn Yang

  • Contrast to weak EV demand and solar PV inventory correction abroad, domestic renewable capacities have been growing at such a neck-breaking speed that we foresee a utilization drop in 2023;
  • China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength,
  • But now have developed a few inconsistencies. Resolution of inconsistency push the sector to higher grounds. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – SCS Results Boost Commercial/Contract Furniture Sector

By Water Tower Research

  • In a week when the broad market indexes retreated by ~3%, the positive earnings report from Steelcase, Inc. (SCS) provided a boost for all the Commercial/Contract Furniture issues.

  • SCS results supported a view that demand in the office furniture sector had troughed.

  • CFO Dave Sylvester noted that the weekly pace of orders in its Americas segment was steady through its fiscal 2Q and into 3Q and that the Y/Y order comparison for the first few weeks of September was up by ~18%. For details, see our update note from September 22.


The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 22, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities sold off this week after more hawkish language from the Federal Reserve. The MSCI World Index fell 2.77%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.92%.

  • The Fed kept rates at 5.25-5.50% but warned additional rate hikes are possible.

  • The NASDAQ declined 3.62%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 finished the five days down 3.78%.


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Daily Brief ECM: Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy
  • Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Preview
  • Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading
  • JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow

By Travis Lundy

  • Niche Japanese Semiconductor Production Equipment specialist Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) last Thursday announced the TSE approved its late October IPO (with indicative pricing, shares to be sold, and initial prospectus).
  • This insight looks at initial shareholder structure, selling group, post-IPO shareholder structure with index inclusion timing, and follow-on flow possibilities. 
  • At ¥435bn indicative market cap, it will be the largest IPO in Japan since pre-covid, despite coming in a cycle trough. I expect it will be hot. 

Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy

By Sanghyun Park

  • The indicative price band is ₩36,200 to ₩46,000. Accordingly, the market capitalization implied by the price band is ₩2.68T to ₩3.40T.
  • The concern arises as to whether Ecopro Materials can consistently deliver a level of profitability that justifies receiving an equivalent valuation multiple to that of Ecopro BM.
  • The timing of this IPO coincides with the ongoing valuation correction in the local battery sector, making the valuation issue the most critical point to watch in this IPO.

Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?

By Sumeet Singh

  • Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement.
  • SGR undertook a similar sized raising earlier this year in Feb 2023, at a price which was double the current deal price.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

Ecopro Materials IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in November 2023. The IPO price range is from 36,200 won to 46,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 524 billion won to 666 billion won. The expected IPO market cap is from 2.7 trillion won to 3.4 trillion won.
  • The bankers used four companies including CNGR, Posco Future M (003670 KS), L&F, and Cosmo AM&T (005070 KS) as comps for Ecopro Materials.

Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) raised around US$151m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) will open up for its IPO subscription this week.
  • The company is into ports and maritime infrastructure and is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity.
  • While the company has grown rapidly, the financials do indicate few concerns such as critical dependence/high RPT with JSW group, high debt-high cash balance sheet, forex risk, etc.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

By Clarence Chu

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • IREDA (1845911D IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IDBI Capital, SBI Capital and Bob Capital.
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority (IREDA) is a wholly owned Government of India (GoI) enterprise under the administrative control of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). 
  • It is registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit-taking Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFCND-SI), with Infrastructure Finance Company (IFC) status.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand


Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!
  • InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023
  • Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot
  • YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 August, PE outfit TPG and InvoCare (IVC AU), Australia’s leading funeral services provider, entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$12.70/share, inclusive of a A$0.60/share fully franked dividend.
  • TPG’s had previously tabled A$12.65/share on the 7 March, which  InvoCare summarily rejected.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. InvoCare shareholders vote on the transaction on the 31 October, with implementation on the 24 November. The IE says terms are “fair and reasonable“.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • At present, I do not expect any index changes for the T50 index but there could be one change for the T100 index.
  • More interestingly, out of the top 10 T100 Potential DELETEs, there are five TDIV members and it will be worth tracking their rankings over the next 2 months.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusion and exclusion candidates for the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023. 
  • The 8 lowest market cap stocks in KOSDAQ 150 are among the main candidates to be excluded from the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
  • Potential inclusions for KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023 include Fadu, GigaVis, Jeio, PhilEnergy, and Manyo Factory.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) (LM) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. The stock was listed in Sep 2022, its lockup on pre-IPO investors will expire on 29th Sep 2023.
  • LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
  • Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
  • This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)
  • Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia
  • Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Robust base and capital deployment options
  • Games Workshop Group – Leviathan
  • Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage
  • Tourism & Hospitality stocks poised to benefit from F1 and large scale events in coming months
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers
  • Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers


Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) reported better-than-expected profitability in Q1FY24, due to softening of raw material prices and normalization of freight rates. EBITDA margin expanded 300bps YoY to 26%.
  • Revenue increased 7% YoY to INR10B, driven by superior execution in branded generics business and lesser price erosion in the U.S. 73% of the total sales came from branded generic.
  • Management maintained mid-teen revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~25% for FY24. Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to growing branded generic business and niche U.S. launches.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
  • The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August — what do airlines see ahead?
  • Is there really “pent-up” tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don’t think so

Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia

By Michael Causton

  • Tsuruha is the latest retailer to come under attack from an activist investment fund. 
  • As with Seven & I, the company fended off demands to shake up its board, crucially with the support of Aeon, its largest stakeholder.
  • The move will likely lead to some careful reconsideration of how Tsuruha and Aeon could work together and may even lead to a Welcia/Tsuruha merger.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Robust base and capital deployment options

By Edison Investment Research

Triple Point Social Housing (SOHO) reported solid H123 results. With borrowing costs fixed, growth in indexed rental income partly offset the impact of credit loss provisions against its two unperforming tenants. Progress is being made in resolving these issues, and as there is no read-across to the wider portfolio, we forecast full dividend cover through FY24. Meanwhile, with the demand for specialised supported housing remaining strong, SOHO has entered a partnership with one of the leading providers in the sector.


Games Workshop Group – Leviathan

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group (GAW) enjoyed another record year of revenue and profit growth in FY23 despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop and economy-wide cost pressures. Underlying volume growth is testimony to the appeal of the IP to its hobbyists. GAW entered FY24 with strong revenue momentum, implying that the June 2023 release of Leviathan, the 10th edition of its most significant property, Warhammer 40K, has boosted growth in Q124. Easing cost pressures should be supportive of underlying margin progress, albeit the recent strength of sterling provides a headwind to growth if it persists through the year.


Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
  • Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank’s pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
  • Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Robust barriers to entry and generating attractive returns – KOSAIDO Holdings is the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a 70% market share in cremations.
  • The company’s robust economic moat is derived from its dominant market position as the primary operator of crematorium services in central Tokyo.
  • The low likelihood of new entrants due to stringent legal and political barriers further solidifies its competitive advantage. 

Tourism & Hospitality stocks poised to benefit from F1 and large scale events in coming months

By Geoff Howie

  • Singapore received over 9 million tourist arrivals from the start of 2023 to end August, a 204.5% year-on-year increase.
  • The 10 most actively traded stocks in the tourism and hospitality sectors have booked net institutional inflows of S$2 million, and returned an average 2.3% total returns in the year-to-date ending 21 Sep.
  • International visitor arrivals to Singapore in August dipped slightly to 31 million in August, due to seasonality and after school holidays.

Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies maintained a GAAP operating income in Q2 and achieved GAAP profitability for the quarter.
  • In Q2, Palantir closed deals in the US commercial market in about 30 sectors, including pharmaceuticals, energy, consumer goods, utilities, health care, construction, automotive, transportation infrastructure, etc.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting in revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year growth.
  • Net income for the quarter stood at $650 million, reflecting a net income margin of 26%, the highest second-quarter margin ever achieved.
  • Additionally, free cash flow reached $900 million, a 13% increase from the previous year, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow of $3.9 billion and a margin of 43%.

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