Daily Briefs

• Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10 since last Tuesday
• The risks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are considered low due to US presence in the region and historical trends of short-lived oil shocks from conflicts
• Regime changes in oil-producing countries have historically led to significant spikes in oil prices, with supply disruptions lasting up to six months and causing prices to stabilize at levels 30% or higher than pre-conflict levels

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• Four SPACs, CCCM, PCAPU, MBAV, and TACO, are highlighted for their potential asymmetric trade opportunities in the crypto sector.
• Sage Therapeutics announced a sale to Supernus Pharmaceuticals, with shareholders receiving $8.50/share in cash and a CVR.
• Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette progresses with FIRB approval discussions, despite no strict obligation for Cosette to pursue it.

• For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they had net income of $64.2 million, compared to $32.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
• The company is coming at an attractive valuation but our sources say traditional IPO investors “may” be staying on the sidelines for this deal. 
• This company is private equity backed by J.C. Flowers & Co and they will own 68.9% of the voting power following this IPO.

• Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Spot) raised $200 million, causing a surge in uranium stocks.
• Spot’s ability to add more pounds of uranium depends on trading above NAV, which it achieved with recent raises.
• The market dynamics in uranium are unique, with financial players influencing the market in unexpected ways.

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• Price discovery and risk management tools in commodities markets through futures contracts
• Discussion with industry leaders at the 2025 Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference in Singapore
• Focus on creating a kilo bar contract and improving price discovery in Asia, with a growing interest in connecting Asia to the world

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• Transaction: Holcim completed the spin-off of its North American business, Amrize, on June 23, 2025; shares listed on SIX and NYSE under ticker AMRZ.
• Rationale: Enables Holcim to focus on global sustainable construction, while Amrize targets high-growth U.S. infrastructure and housing markets.
• At a $30B EV, Amrize would list near $54.43/share, implying Holcim should trade at CHF 68.20 post-spin.

• Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia, founders of Airbnb, met at the Rhode Island School of Design in 1999
• Chesky’s background in industrial design engineering heavily influenced Airbnb’s design-centric approach
• Chesky’s scrappiness and founder mentality have driven Airbnb’s success, with a focus on improving margins and generating free cash flow.

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• Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) reached extreme levels amid the Iran war; our models flagged a >89% reversal probability at the end of last week. Short-term tactical view: OVERBOUGHT.
• The long-term price may be higher than now, so any pullback may be a good occasion to BUY.
• This insight briefly discuss possible entry points, a couple of scenarios.

• Equifax Inc. has provided a comprehensive overview of its Q1 2025 financial performance and outlook in its recent earnings, revealing both strengths and challenges in the company’s operational landscape.
• Starting with the positives, Equifax reported a strong beginning to 2025 with revenue reaching $1.442 billion, marking a 4% growth on a reported basis and 5% in constant currency.
• Notably, this was $37 million above the midpoint of the company’s previous guidance offered in February.

• Roivant Sciences, in its most recent fiscal year-end earnings, reported a period of significant activity and progress across several fronts.
• The company emphasized advancements in its late-stage pipeline, particularly in its anti-FcRn franchise and developments in brepocitinib.
• The fiscal year was marked by the generation of critical data from studies involving batoclimab in Myasthenia Gravis and CIDP, as well as anticipation for pivotal data from brepocitinib in dermatomyositis, which could lead to novel treatments with significant lead-time advantages.