Daily Briefs

Solid Q1 and reaffirmed guidance: Appier delivered 27% organic growth in Q1, maintained FY targets, and continues to benefit from resilient demand for AI marketing solutions.
Strategic acquisition of AdCreative.ai: The deal expands Appier’s AI portfolio, enhances creative automation capabilities, and supports cross-sell potential, despite short-term margin pressure from integration.
Attractive valuation with upside: Despite strong fundamentals, shares trade below 3x EV/sales; H2 seasonality and AI adoption present a compelling re-rating opportunity.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Demand to Remain Sluggish; Margins to Hold, For Now

By Tina Banerjee

In FY25, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, mainly driven by the nursing care business.
Due to higher SG&A expenses, operating profit decreased 6% YoY to ¥13B and net profit was down 15% YoY to ¥9B.
Paramount guided FY26 revenue to grow 4% YoY to ¥113B and also trimmed FY27 targets in mid-term plan.

Tata Motors Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Financial Performance with Focus on EV Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Motors posted its highest-ever annual revenue and PBT for FY25, with strong sequential growth in Q4 driven by robust performance in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments.
The company successfully managed to navigate global trade and tariff challenges, improved its profitability through cost-saving measures, and expanded its leadership in electric mobility.
The results demonstrate Tata Motors’ resilience and long-term growth strategy, especially with a continued focus on electric vehicles and new product innovations.

Asics (7936) | Q1 Earnings Impress, But Market Reacts to Unchanged Guidance

Asics reported its first-quarter results during trading hours, with the stock closing down 8.6% on the day.
While headline numbers were strong, investors may have been disappointed by the lack of upward revision to full-year guidance.
Our positive view on Asics remains unchanged. The company is successfully navigating geopolitical and macro uncertainties while strengthening its brand.

A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.
We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.
We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector.

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating

Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture
If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.

High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.
Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) mean there is further upside.

Fast Fitness Japan Inc (7092 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue increased 13.8% YoY to JPY18.0bn, driven by membership growth in domestic Anytime Fitness clubs.
Operating profit decreased 4.7% YoY to JPY3.3bn due to higher costs, despite revenue growth and cost-curbing efforts.
FY03/25 saw 71 club openings and 11 closures, ending with 1,194 clubs and 974,000 members.

Geely (175 HK): Revenue Up by 25% in 1Q25 and Deliveries Up by 53% in April – 26% Stock Upside

By Ming Lu

Geely announced that total revenue increased by 25% YoY in 1Q25.
Sales volume continued to grew strongly by 53% YoY in April 2025.
The operating margin improved YoY for the third quarter in 1Q25.

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May 16

Most Read: BYD, GMO Internet, Pop Mart International Group L, Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts, All Winner Technology, Mayne Pharma, Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, SK Square , ESR Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade
GMO Internet (4784) Offering – This Is a GINORMOUS Re-IPO – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25
CSI 500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Near-Term Outperformance
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now
[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value
A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market
ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSTECH INDEX ended on 31 March, the changes will be announced on 16 May and implemented on 6 June.
Following the launch of the God’s Eye ADAS, BYD (1211 HK) could become eligible for index inclusion after meeting the Autonomous theme and Innovation screening.
The inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) in the index could result in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index in June.

GMO Internet (4784) Offering – This Is a GINORMOUS Re-IPO – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

By Travis Lundy

Last year, GMO injected its internet business into GMO Internet (4784 JP) and took shares as consideration. Somehow, GMO Internet got a TOPIX inclusion earlier this year.
The company has 1.24% float of 3.4mm shares. GMO Internet Group – the parent – will now offload 91.7mm shares in an equity offering to meet TSE Continued Listing Requirements.
That is about ¥279bn at current price against float of ¥10bn. Full market cap is ¥850bn. That’s 170x Dec25e Net Income. I expect the price will fall. You were warned.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings.
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.

CSI 500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Near-Term Outperformance

With the review period complete, there could be 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index in June.
There are a lot of migrations expected between the two indices and the impacts for those stocks are lower with much of the flow cancelling out.
The outright adds have outperformed the outright deletes over the last few months with the profit-taking in March giving way to renewed outperformance in April.

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Whole Lotta Change

With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
The largest flows will be in stocks that are adds/deletes for both indices – and there are a few of those. Plus there are some overlaps with other indices.
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes for both indices since January, near-term performance has not been great. That could change as we near the announcement date.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

By David Blennerhassett

They say bad things come in threes. First, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)announced TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)‘s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.
The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.
Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

By Travis Lundy

Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%.
Integrated Construction Co INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) – congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions – is buying Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP) well below FAs’ DCF range midpoints.
But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value

By Sumeet Singh

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$1.3bn in its H-share listing.
JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market

By Sanghyun Park

Due to NAV accuracy issues, locals favor sigma plays within ±2σ bands over classic stub trades, with aggressive traders rotating longs and shorts around ±1σ.
Avoid trending divergence periods; these eight targets usually mean-revert well, but H1 this year showed unusually deep divergence—important to consider for current sigma plays.
As of today, no 20-day MA sigmas trigger trades, but holding company strength drives price ratios—a trend likely lasting post-election—suggesting ±2σ sigma plays with longs in holdcos.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.
The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).
This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%

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May 16

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square , Hanjin KAL Corp, Mirae Asset Securities and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market
Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal
A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market

By Sanghyun Park

Due to NAV accuracy issues, locals favor sigma plays within ±2σ bands over classic stub trades, with aggressive traders rotating longs and shorts around ±1σ.
Avoid trending divergence periods; these eight targets usually mean-revert well, but H1 this year showed unusually deep divergence—important to consider for current sigma plays.
As of today, no 20-day MA sigmas trigger trades, but holding company strength drives price ratios—a trend likely lasting post-election—suggesting ±2σ sigma plays with longs in holdcos.

Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal

On 15 May, Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) announced that it will contribute 440,044 shares of its treasury stock to the company’s welfare fund, representing 0.7% of its common shares.
This is a clear indication of Hanjin Kal Chairman Cho Won-Tae and his allies launching a management rights defense against Hoban Group which recently increased its stake in Hanjin Kal.
The higher probability scenario is for Hanjin Kal’s shares to retrace down to below 100,000 won level as a full blown M&A fight is not likely in the near future.

A Pair Trade (Basket) Of Korean Banks Vs Securities

In this insight, we propose a pair trade between a basket of major securities stocks (long) versus banking stocks (short) in Korea.
We believe the five major securities stocks in Korea could continue to outperform the five major banking stocks in Korea over the next 6-12 months.
We present 3 major headwinds on the Korean banking sector and 4 major tailwinds on the Korean securities sector.

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May 16

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, BHP Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Scheme Booklet Should Calm Nerves
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Scheme Booklet Dispatch Lends More Than A Veneer Of Support
BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Scheme Booklet Should Calm Nerves

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) has released its scheme booklet regarding Cosette’s A$7.40 offer. The IE opines that the offer is fair and reasonable within its A$6.61-A$7.99 valuation range.
The high spread reflects concerns that recent events would trigger the MAC clause. Thankfully, the scheme booklet does not indicate that Cosette is contesting it.
Recent events should help quell retail opposition to the offer. At the last close and for a 2 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 19.4%/262%.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Scheme Booklet Dispatch Lends More Than A Veneer Of Support

By David Blennerhassett

After a rough week – somewhat of an understatement – the Scheme Doc is now out.
The Court Meeting is the18th June; the last day of trading the 23rd June, and implementation 2nd July. The IE says fair with a valuation range of A$6.61-A$7.99/share.
This IE’s valuation range doesn’t factor in the pharma EO, given its ambiguity. Nor the FDA level. However, Mayne, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Doc’s veracity.

BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

By Graeme Cunningham

A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish
We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments
Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside

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May 16

Daily Brief Singapore: Pan United Corp, Mirxes Holding and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Pan United Corporation :
Mirxes IPO: Valuation Without Sensible Fundamentals

Pan United Corporation :

By Punit Khanna

Ready -Mix Cement market leader in Singapore which is focused on operational efficiency.
Remains committed to innovation, technology and sustainability of environment by reducing carbon emissions
Focus on improving ROE, asset light and with reasonable earnings earnings visibility

Mirxes IPO: Valuation Without Sensible Fundamentals

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mirxes, a Singapore-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$139m via a Hong Kong listing.
We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the early cancer screening sector in China.
We are of the view that there’s little fundamentals supporting that valuation. Precision oncology companies have not done well in China.

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May 16

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, GE Vernova , MNTN, Crude Oil, Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc, Mira Pharmaceuticals , Nauticus Robotics , Rayonier Advanced Materials, Spruce Power Holding and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.
Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?
GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems
MNTN, Inc. IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth Accelerated in 1Q’25, Attractive Valuation Vs. Peers
[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand
Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc: Cost Savings and Mix Improvement Drive Outperformance…
MIRA: Breakthroughs Continue as Financial Results Released
Nauticus Robotics, Inc: 1Q25 Review; Customer Conversations Changing To “How Soon” From “What If”
Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc: While Disappointing, 1Q25 May Be the Low Point for the Year
Spruce Power Holding Corporation: 1Q25 Results; Operating EBITDA Up 15% Y/Y with SP5

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

By Nicolas Baratte

Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is “not significant”, limited to packaging only.
Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.
Clear admission that Intel Foundry won’t be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating

Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture
If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.

GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems

By Behind the Money

GE’s old headquarters in Schenectady, NY has been a significant part of the company’s history, but has seen a decline in recent years
GE Vernova, a spinoff of General Electric, has seen success in the electrification business and is capitalizing on the surge in demand for energy
GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik, a longtime company man, is confident about the company’s future and sees it as just the beginning of an investment super cycle

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MNTN, Inc. IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth Accelerated in 1Q’25, Attractive Valuation Vs. Peers

By Andrei Zakharov

MNTN, Inc., a fast-growing advertising software company, has announced the initial price range for its upcoming US IPO.
The offering is expected to be between $14.00 and $16.00 per share, implying a market cap of ~$1.4B on a fully-diluted basis at the midpoint of price range.
BlackRock has indicated a non-binding interest in purchasing up to $30M worth of MNTN shares at the IPO price. The price range is seen as attractively valued, in my view.

[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.
Saudi Aramco’s Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc: Cost Savings and Mix Improvement Drive Outperformance…

HYFM is a leading manufacturer and distributor of branded hydroponics equipment and supplies for controlled environment agriculture (CEA).
The company’s products consist primarily of consumable products, such as nutrients and plant growth media, grow lights, climate control solutions, rolling racks/benches, and various other equipment and supplies.
1Q25 results modestly exceeded our expectations. Quarterly revenue of $40.5 million was slightly below our $41.7 million estimate, driven by greater-than-expected volume declines, only partially offset by a less-than-expected decline in prices.

MIRA: Breakthroughs Continue as Financial Results Released

By Zacks Small Cap Research

MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

Nauticus Robotics, Inc: 1Q25 Review; Customer Conversations Changing To “How Soon” From “What If”

KITT reported 1Q25 results that reflect the muted seasonality of a typical 1Q in the marine space.
Revenue was $165k, down from $464k in the year-ago period, and FCF excluding M&A was ($6.7) million, in line with 1Q24.
The company sold 7.5 million shares in the quarter for net proceeds of $19.4 million and ended 1Q with ~$10.1 million in cash.

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc: While Disappointing, 1Q25 May Be the Low Point for the Year

Tough start to the year. RYAM reported 1Q25 results that included revenue of $356 million (down 8% Y/Y and below our $363 million estimate) and EBITDA of $17 million (well below the year-ago result of $52 million and our $48 million estimate).
A non-cash environmental charge of $12 million and an FX hit of ($5) million, combined with weather, higher maintenance-related operating costs, and lower volumes, more than offset modestly higher prices in Cellulose Specialties and Cellulose Commodities and benefits from prior cost reduction efforts.
New reporting structure highlights progress toward specialty. RYAM changed the way it reports results of its High Purity Cellulose division, splitting the division into three segments beginning in 1Q25 (Cellulose Specialties [CS], Cellulose Commodities [CC], and Biomaterials), highlighting the profitable nature of its CS (23% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) and Biomaterials (29% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) businesses and continuing deemphasis of CC sales.

Spruce Power Holding Corporation: 1Q25 Results; Operating EBITDA Up 15% Y/Y with SP5

CEO Chris Hayes hosted SPRU’s 1Q25 results call. Spruce Power is a leading owner-operator of residential solar power purchase agreements (PPAs) and solar lease agreements (SLAs).
Spruce grows through the acquisition of mature portfolios.
Spruce now owns the cash flows from ~85,000 home solar assets and contracts, up from 21k in 2018.

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May 16

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Blackbuck, Tata Motors ADR, Hero Motocorp, GMR Hyderabad International Airport, Tata Steel Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Bharti Airtel Block – Another Singtel Selldown Worth US$1bn
Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains
Tata Motors Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Financial Performance with Focus on EV Growth
Can the India’s Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Tata Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel Block – Another Singtel Selldown Worth US$1bn

By Akshat Shah

Pastel Ltd, a subsidiary of Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) is looking to raise up to US$1bn via selling a 0.8% stake in Bharti Airtel Limited.
Singtel had sold a 0.8% stake (US$950m then) to GQG Partners in Mar 2024. Singtel had a total stake of around 29.3% in the firm, as of the last close.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains

By Akshat Shah

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of users), with 27.52% of India’s truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Tata Motors Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Financial Performance with Focus on EV Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Motors posted its highest-ever annual revenue and PBT for FY25, with strong sequential growth in Q4 driven by robust performance in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments.
The company successfully managed to navigate global trade and tariff challenges, improved its profitability through cost-saving measures, and expanded its leadership in electric mobility.
The results demonstrate Tata Motors’ resilience and long-term growth strategy, especially with a continued focus on electric vehicles and new product innovations.

Can the India’s Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

This note examines Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s market share trajectory in the context of broader two-wheeler industry trends.
It also highlights internal leadership churn and execution issues post split from Honda Motor (7267 JP)
Finally, this note reviews the strategic outlook and key challenges ahead for the company, despite its discounted valuation compared to peers.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP, Pertamina (Persero), Rakuten Group
Treasuries fell, with yields rising yesterday as the market continued to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 49 bps of rate cuts in 2025 as of yesterday (vs. 54 bps as of Tuesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.05%, while the yield on the 10Y UST expanded 7 bps to 4.54%. Equities edged higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

Tata Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Steel has released its Q4 and FY 2024-25 numbers.
Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global steel market environment.
Profitability improved, while debt decreased and capital investments were maintained amid headwinds in Europe.

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May 16

Daily Brief Japan: Aichi Steel, Appier Group, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Freee KK, ASICS Corp, Fast Fitness Japan Inc, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Hakudo Co Ltd, Grandy House, Forum Engineering Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3
Appier (4180 JP) | AI Marketing Leader Positioned for Long-Term Growth
Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Demand to Remain Sluggish; Margins to Hold, For Now
High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead
Asics (7936) | Q1 Earnings Impress, But Market Reacts to Unchanged Guidance
Fast Fitness Japan Inc (7092 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Strategic Reset Amid Downstream Challenges and Valuation Discount
Hakudo Co Ltd (7637 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Grandy House (8999 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

Aichi Steel (5482 JP) announced earnings on 25-April during market hours. Results were OK. Guidance was OK. The div was WAY up for Mar26. Shares fell. Then rose 26-April.
Aichi Steel is a Toyota Motors equity affiliate (26-27%), Toyota Industries, Toyota R.E., megabanks, the Kyoeikai, and Nippon Steel all have stakes. Nippon Steel recently reduced its position.
Activist Murakami has about 10% across two entities. This morning, the Company was to buy back 16%. WHO is selling? We don’t know yet. Likely a mix. Details may matter.

Appier (4180 JP) | AI Marketing Leader Positioned for Long-Term Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Solid Q1 and reaffirmed guidance: Appier delivered 27% organic growth in Q1, maintained FY targets, and continues to benefit from resilient demand for AI marketing solutions.
Strategic acquisition of AdCreative.ai: The deal expands Appier’s AI portfolio, enhances creative automation capabilities, and supports cross-sell potential, despite short-term margin pressure from integration.
Attractive valuation with upside: Despite strong fundamentals, shares trade below 3x EV/sales; H2 seasonality and AI adoption present a compelling re-rating opportunity.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Demand to Remain Sluggish; Margins to Hold, For Now

By Tina Banerjee

In FY25, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, mainly driven by the nursing care business.
Due to higher SG&A expenses, operating profit decreased 6% YoY to ¥13B and net profit was down 15% YoY to ¥9B.
Paramount guided FY26 revenue to grow 4% YoY to ¥113B and also trimmed FY27 targets in mid-term plan.

High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.
Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) mean there is further upside.

Asics (7936) | Q1 Earnings Impress, But Market Reacts to Unchanged Guidance

Asics reported its first-quarter results during trading hours, with the stock closing down 8.6% on the day.
While headline numbers were strong, investors may have been disappointed by the lack of upward revision to full-year guidance.
Our positive view on Asics remains unchanged. The company is successfully navigating geopolitical and macro uncertainties while strengthening its brand.

Fast Fitness Japan Inc (7092 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue increased 13.8% YoY to JPY18.0bn, driven by membership growth in domestic Anytime Fitness clubs.
Operating profit decreased 4.7% YoY to JPY3.3bn due to higher costs, despite revenue growth and cost-curbing efforts.
FY03/25 saw 71 club openings and 11 closures, ending with 1,194 clubs and 974,000 members.

Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Strategic Reset Amid Downstream Challenges and Valuation Discount

By Rahul Jain

Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713) faced challenges in FY2024, with earnings impacted by weak treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in the copper segment and underperformance in battery materials.
Its recent 3-Year Business Plan 2027, to boost EBITDA from ¥150 billion to ¥275 billion by FY2027 by working on the mines, focussing on battery materials business, and recycling.
The stock has declined approximately 37% over the past year, making it more attractive with a forward EV/EBITDA of around 4.0x, suggesting potential undervaluation.

Hakudo Co Ltd (7637 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 16.0% YoY to JPY66.4bn, driven by higher product prices and semiconductor equipment demand.
Operating profit rose 18.2% YoY, aided by increased gross profit per unit and inventory valuation gains.
FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY75.8bn (+14.1% YoY), operating profit JPY3.2bn (+8.3% YoY), net income JPY2.4bn (+5.1% YoY).

Grandy House (8999 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Grandy House’s FY03/25 sales increased YoY, driven by higher sales volume in Tokyo, despite a decline in homes sold.
Pre-cut Parts segment faced YoY declines in sales and profit due to a sluggish housing market and factory upgrades.
Total assets decreased by JPY5.7bn from end-FY03/24, mainly due to reduced inventories in the Real Estate Sales business.

Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue reached JPY34.7bn (+10.9% YoY) with operating profit at JPY4.2bn (+38.7% YoY) due to increased engineer utilization and staffing rates.
FY03/26 forecasts project revenue of JPY38.2bn (+10.1% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+32.1% YoY), focusing on Cognavi Staffing and Graduates.
Revised medium-term plan targets FY03/26 revenue of JPY38.2bn and operating profit of JPY5.0bn, emphasizing engineer staffing and India expansion.

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May 16

Daily Brief China: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, ESR Group , Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Baidu , Netdragon Websoft, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Pop Mart International Group L, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Geely Auto, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value
ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Valuation Insights
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$423mn One-Way for Jun; Some Sector-Neutral Pair Trades for Sep
CATL (3750 HK): Powered by the PetroDollar. HK Offer Overview and Valuations.
FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash
Geely (175 HK): Revenue Up by 25% in 1Q25 and Deliveries Up by 53% in April – 26% Stock Upside
CATL’s New Battery Tech Takes Aim at Issues Hindering EV Uptake

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value

By Sumeet Singh

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$1.3bn in its H-share listing.
JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.
The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).
This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Valuation Insights

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) has launched its H Share listing at HK$41.45 to HK$44.05 per H Share. Pricing will be on 21 May.
I discussed the H Share listing in Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount can be argued as either light or attractive. I lean toward the latter and would participate in the H Share listing.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 16th May 2025.
We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$396mn one-way.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$423mn One-Way for Jun; Some Sector-Neutral Pair Trades for Sep

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
For the June 2025 index rebal, we estimate there to be US$423mn one-way flows due to capping.
We also expect three index changes (so far) for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

CATL (3750 HK): Powered by the PetroDollar. HK Offer Overview and Valuations.

By Devi Subhakesan

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has offered118 million shares in Hong Kong, priced at HKD263 per share, a modest discount to its A share price.
More than half of the USD4 Billion Hong Kong share offering has already been subscribed by cornerstone investors.
Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are amongst CATL’s key corner stone investors while the deal excluded US onshore investors given the mounting geopolitical tensions.

FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

With two days left in the review period, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could replace China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) in the FXI ETF in June.
The inclusion of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) will add to the potential inclusion of the stock in other indices.
Short interest has been increasing in both stocks. Multiple index inclusions could result in short covering in Pop Mart while China Railway Group‘s stock price has been bouncing off its lows.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).
Ping An has secured support from M&G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).

Geely (175 HK): Revenue Up by 25% in 1Q25 and Deliveries Up by 53% in April – 26% Stock Upside

By Ming Lu

Geely announced that total revenue increased by 25% YoY in 1Q25.
Sales volume continued to grew strongly by 53% YoY in April 2025.
The operating margin improved YoY for the third quarter in 1Q25.

CATL’s New Battery Tech Takes Aim at Issues Hindering EV Uptake

By Caixin Global

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) said its new electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies increase a car’s range, lower charging times and keep working at extremely low temperatures.
The improvements that CATL touted in its announcement Monday aim to alleviate some of the major issues seen as hindering the uptake of EVs, such as “range anxiety” — the concern that a car’s battery might run out on longer drives.
The highlight of the announcement was the Freevoy dual-power battery system, which divides a single battery pack into two independent energy “zones” — one to power a car for running around town and another that kicks in for longer trips that might test the vehicle’s range.

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May 16

Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square , Hanjin KAL Corp, Blackbuck, Pan United Corp, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), GE Vernova , GMR Hyderabad International Airport, Japan Elevator Service Holding, Emcor Group Inc, Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market
Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal
Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains
Pan United Corporation :
CATL’s New Battery Tech Takes Aim at Issues Hindering EV Uptake
GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Structural Growth with Cyclical Resilience
EMCOR Group : Flexes Financial Muscle…
Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update, new medium-term management plan

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market

By Sanghyun Park

Due to NAV accuracy issues, locals favor sigma plays within ±2σ bands over classic stub trades, with aggressive traders rotating longs and shorts around ±1σ.
Avoid trending divergence periods; these eight targets usually mean-revert well, but H1 this year showed unusually deep divergence—important to consider for current sigma plays.
As of today, no 20-day MA sigmas trigger trades, but holding company strength drives price ratios—a trend likely lasting post-election—suggesting ±2σ sigma plays with longs in holdcos.

Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal

On 15 May, Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) announced that it will contribute 440,044 shares of its treasury stock to the company’s welfare fund, representing 0.7% of its common shares.
This is a clear indication of Hanjin Kal Chairman Cho Won-Tae and his allies launching a management rights defense against Hoban Group which recently increased its stake in Hanjin Kal.
The higher probability scenario is for Hanjin Kal’s shares to retrace down to below 100,000 won level as a full blown M&A fight is not likely in the near future.

Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains

By Akshat Shah

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of users), with 27.52% of India’s truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Pan United Corporation :

By Punit Khanna

Ready -Mix Cement market leader in Singapore which is focused on operational efficiency.
Remains committed to innovation, technology and sustainability of environment by reducing carbon emissions
Focus on improving ROE, asset light and with reasonable earnings earnings visibility

CATL’s New Battery Tech Takes Aim at Issues Hindering EV Uptake

By Caixin Global

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) said its new electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies increase a car’s range, lower charging times and keep working at extremely low temperatures.
The improvements that CATL touted in its announcement Monday aim to alleviate some of the major issues seen as hindering the uptake of EVs, such as “range anxiety” — the concern that a car’s battery might run out on longer drives.
The highlight of the announcement was the Freevoy dual-power battery system, which divides a single battery pack into two independent energy “zones” — one to power a car for running around town and another that kicks in for longer trips that might test the vehicle’s range.

GE Vernova tries to shake its parent’s problems

By Behind the Money

GE’s old headquarters in Schenectady, NY has been a significant part of the company’s history, but has seen a decline in recent years
GE Vernova, a spinoff of General Electric, has seen success in the electrification business and is capitalizing on the surge in demand for energy
GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik, a longtime company man, is confident about the company’s future and sees it as just the beginning of an investment super cycle

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP, Pertamina (Persero), Rakuten Group
Treasuries fell, with yields rising yesterday as the market continued to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 49 bps of rate cuts in 2025 as of yesterday (vs. 54 bps as of Tuesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.05%, while the yield on the 10Y UST expanded 7 bps to 4.54%. Equities edged higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Structural Growth with Cyclical Resilience

By Astris Advisory Japan

Defensive growth in motion – We view Q1-4 FY3/25 results as indicating that Japan Elevator Services (JES) reinforced its position as a structurally growing, non-cyclical business with resilient cash flows and strong earnings visibility.
Contract growth accelerated at the high-margin Maintenance segment, rising 13.3% YoY, and operational leverage resulted in OPM expansion YoY, signifying a scalable business model.
With increasing engineer productivity improving margin dynamics, nationwide market expansion driving sales, and inflationary cost pressures reinforcing JES’s competitive advantage to gain market share, we believe the earnings outlook is one of sustained compounding growth.

EMCOR Group : Flexes Financial Muscle…

By Baptista Research

EMCOR Group, Inc. recently reported robust first-quarter results for 2025, showcasing strong revenue growth and solid performance across many of its business segments.
The company’s revenue increased by 12.7% year over year to $3.87 billion, with a significant contribution from the Electrical and Mechanical Construction segments, which grew by 42.3% and 10.2%, respectively.
This growth was driven by heightened activity in sectors like data centers, healthcare, and industrial projects, reflecting organic expansion and the strategic acquisition of Miller Electric.

Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update, new medium-term management plan