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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Biologics , SK Inc, Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off
  • Potential Sale of SK Specialty and Deleveraging of the SK Group – Impact on SK Inc and NAV Analysis
  • Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025


Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung C&T’s holding company ratio is closing in on 50%, driven by the Biologics rally, which has Samsung on high alert for a forced conversion.
  • Watch Samsung’s moves to avoid forced holding company status. The old Biologics-for-Electronics swap isn’t viable, so they’ll likely sell Biologics shares to lower the ratio.
  • Samsung C&T might sell Biologics shares at a ₩80T market cap. They’ve boosted construction to manage assets and the holding ratio, but beyond ₩80T, risks increase.

Potential Sale of SK Specialty and Deleveraging of the SK Group – Impact on SK Inc and NAV Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential sale of SK Specialty by SK Inc (034730 KS) which owns 100% stake in the company. 
  • If SK Inc could sell SK Specialty at about 3 trillion won to 4 trillion won, this could reduce significantly reduce debt burden of SK Inc.
  • Our base case NAV value per share for SK Inc is 203,288 won per share, representing 38% upside from current levels.

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. 
  • Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.
  • Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Erie Indemnity Company Cl A, Intel Corp, Ethereum, Crowdstrike Holdings , Deckers Outdoor, Las Vegas Sands, Teledyne Technologies, Travelers Cos, Wr Berkley Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Select Sector Indices – Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn
  • S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL
  • Intel’s Crisis Deepens: Is the Foundry Business Next on the Chopping Block?
  • Crypto Crisp: Macro Is Not Your Friend
  • CrowdStrike’s Post-Outage Reality: Navigating the Challenges Ahead!
  • Deckers Outdoor Corporation: What Are Its Latest Brand and Market Expansion Strategies? – Major Drivers
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Competitive Positioning and Market Recovery Dynamics Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers
  • The Travelers Companies: How Is The Management Focusing on Competitive Positioning? – Major Drivers
  • W. R. Berkley Corporation: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers


Select Sector Indices – Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&P400 Index and S&P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
  • The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
  • Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

By Dimitris Ioannidis


Intel’s Crisis Deepens: Is the Foundry Business Next on the Chopping Block?

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation finds itself at a critical juncture as it heads into its mid-September 2024 board meeting, grappling with a series of severe challenges that threaten the company’s stability and future prospects.
  • Once a titan of the semiconductor industry, Intel has been beset by financial difficulties, including continuous losses, declining market share, and an increasingly competitive landscape.
  • The situation has been exacerbated by the recent departure of key executives, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the company’s strategic direction.

Crypto Crisp: Macro Is Not Your Friend

By Mads Eberhardt

  • As we enter a new month, it is a good time to reassess the market outlook.
  • Throughout August, we held the belief that the crypto market would gradually recover from its early-month lows.
  • While this expectation was partly fulfilled, we now recognize several indicators suggesting a downward trend or, at best, sideways movement throughout September.

CrowdStrike’s Post-Outage Reality: Navigating the Challenges Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike, a leader in cybersecurity known for its AI-driven Falcon platform, now finds itself grappling with significant challenges in the wake of a global IT outage that has shaken its foundations.
  • While the company has long been recognized for its robust growth, technological innovation, and a solid client base, the recent incident has exposed vulnerabilities that could impact its future trajectory.
  • The outage, which disrupted services across critical sectors, has raised questions about the resilience of CrowdStrike’s operations and the reliability of its platform.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation: What Are Its Latest Brand and Market Expansion Strategies? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Deckers Brands delivered a commendable performance in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with a commendable revenue growth of 22% reaching $825 million.
  • This surge in revenue is significantly supported by the enhanced gross margin, which impressively improved to 56.9%, accompanied by a robust 87% increase in diluted earnings per share to $4.52, compared to the same period last year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Competitive Positioning and Market Recovery Dynamics Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest financial results from Las Vegas Sands reflect a company navigating a complex landscape with both successes and ongoing challenges.
  • The corporation, which is heavily invested in both Macao and Singapore, is experiencing different dynamics in these markets.
  • These factors present a balanced view of the company’s performance and ongoing strategies.

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Investors evaluating Teledyne Technologies Incorporated should consider both the achievements and challenges reported in their latest financial updates.
  • Notably, the company achieved record free cash flow, allowing for significant allocations towards debt repayment, acquisitions, and stock buybacks.
  • This demonstrates adept financial management and the capability to maintain operational flexibility.

The Travelers Companies: How Is The Management Focusing on Competitive Positioning? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Travelers Companies Inc. has reported its second quarter 2024 earnings with quite robust financial outcomes, characterized by strength across most of its operational dimensions.
  • The firm registered substantial top line growth, with net written premiums increasing by 8% to reach $11.1 billion compared to the previous periods.
  • This positive trajectory was primarily fueled by effective field execution and strong retention rates across all business segments.

W. R. Berkley Corporation: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • W.R. Berkart Corporation began the year 2024 with exceptionally strong quarterly financial performance, marked by record levels of operating income, net investment income, and underwriting income.
  • The positive outcomes from this first quarter reveal a company that is harnessing its capabilities effectively across various areas of its operations.
  • During the quarter, W.R. Berkley Corporation manifested a commendable growth in net premiums written, which escalated to nearly $2.9 billion, marking an increase of 10.7% over the previous period.

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Daily Brief India: BrainBees Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Brainbees (FIRSTCRY IN): First Results Fail to Cheer. Lock-In Expiry May Test Stock Resilience


Brainbees (FIRSTCRY IN): First Results Fail to Cheer. Lock-In Expiry May Test Stock Resilience

By Devi Subhakesan

  • BrainBees Solutions (FIRSTCRY IN) reported marginal decline in 1QFY2025 revenues and GMV (India operations) versus previous quarter, though both were up 17% YoY; fell short of market expectations.
  • Key operating metrics for India business too were soft with Average Order Value slipping both on a QoQ and YoY basis, impacting GMV growth and segment margins.
  • With 0% promoter holding, nearly 30%-50% shares could possibly start trading post lock-in expiry and this could test the stock’s resilience. Softbank Group(9984 JP), the biggest stake holder, owns 19.99%.

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Daily Brief Japan: Exedy Corp, Fuji Soft Inc, Nextage Co Ltd, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – Bain Bids More, The Market Goes Even Higher
  • Nextage (3186): One Analyst, Two Valuations, Both Wrong
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 Jp) – 2Q Follow-Up


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run

By Travis Lundy

  • In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) . The market dropped. But that was the opportunity.
  • On 30 May, I said “Buy the deal, buy in the market. It’s cheap and vulnerable.” It’s up 21.5% since (the day after). Peers are down 15-20%. 
  • The company completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There’s LOTS of cash left. 

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer

By Arun George

  • Nikkei reports that Bain will launch a competing tender offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) around JPY9,200-9,300 per share, around 5% higher than KKR’s offer. 
  • The Board responded that Bain submitted a non-binding proposal on 26 July. The special committee will consider its feasibility if a binding proposal is submitted. 
  • KKR has three options to respond to a higher Bain offer: revise it, launch a hostile offer at unchanged terms, or walk away. The first option is the most likely.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – Bain Bids More, The Market Goes Even Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • The original Target Opinion Statement for KKR’s bid at ¥8,800/share offered a glimpse at a non-binding, questionably feasible offer at a slightly higher price, which 3DIP might have rejected.
  • That was apparently Bain, and now we know Bain has consistently had the higher price. Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) handled this whole process badly, perhaps cowed by 3DIP.
  • Now the cat is amongst the pigeons. This is less hostile than it looks IMO. The market thinks it will be a bun fight. 

Nextage (3186): One Analyst, Two Valuations, Both Wrong

By Michael Allen

  • Simply Wall Street published an article on Aug 20, 2024, suggesting the fair value of Nextage was ¥1,772 or 16% below the previous day’s closing price.
  • Yet, on the Simply Wall Street website’s stock page for Nextage, updated on August 26, they calculate the fair value at ¥5,726, or 189% above the close on Aug 19.
  • Both cannot be right. Here’s an interesting window into how markets mis-price stocks.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 Jp) – 2Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • DWTI held a 1H results briefing via ZOOM webinar on Friday 8/23 at 13:30, hosted by President Hidaka.
  • Several important points came up in his answers to questions from analysts during Q&A at the end of the briefing.
  • 1) Dosing in H-1337 PIIb trials in the US has been completed, and in the year-end publication of top-line results, the key expectation is to show non-inferiority of ROCK inhibitor H-1337 (1.0% once daily) versus existing beta blocker Timolol (0.5% twice daily).

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Daily Brief China: Kuaishou Technology, ASM Pacific Technology, Tencent, Electric Connector Technology, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, CPMC Holdings, Zhongsheng Group, Midea Group Co Ltd A, HKEX, DiDi Global and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)
  • Hang Seng, HSCEI, HSTECH Sep24 Rebal Final Capping Flows
  • MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: Brazil Takes the EM Flow, SA & China Downweighted Again (Tencent)
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade
  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – The Disappointing 24H1 Results Will Not Affect the Privatization Process
  • CPMC (906 HK): Champion Tech Walks
  • Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): Chart Analysis Affirms Zhongsheng Is Too Cheap
  • Midea A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium and past A/H Listings
  • HK Exchanges:  Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds
  • Didi Global Q224 Results: EBITA Margin Up | OpCF Still Strong | But Growth Slowed Noticeably


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Hang Seng, HSCEI, HSTECH Sep24 Rebal Final Capping Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The close of 3 September 2024 was the final price to determine capping for the Hang Seng Index Rebalances which will take place this Friday 6 September 2024 at close.
  • The numbers are largely unchanged, though price changes in the interim cause more Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) to be bought, and more Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) to be sold.
  • The biggest name in flows is, of course, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) which sees 15 days to buy.

MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: Brazil Takes the EM Flow, SA & China Downweighted Again (Tencent)

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • South Africa was downweighted in ACW, EM and EM ex China for a second consecutive quarter. 
  • Brazil was the largest upweight in ACW, EM and EM ex China.
  • Tencent was downweighted in the EM index but upweighted in ACW.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With 70% of the review period complete, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes for both indices on a year-to-date basis, but near-term performance has been lackluster.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – The Disappointing 24H1 Results Will Not Affect the Privatization Process

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s 24H1 results is weaker-than-expected. Net profit YoY growth for the whole year of 2024 could be negative. Based on calculation, without privatization, HK$3.26/share is fair for China TCM.
  • The remedial tax is a “one-time expenditure” to clear the “obstacle” so as to smooth the completion of privatization. Weak financial performance in 24H1 should help the shareholder vote. 
  • Due to the low base in 2024, 2025 is expected to see an obvious performance rebound.Long-term outlook of TCM granules business is still promising, reasonable share price is above HK$5/share.

CPMC (906 HK): Champion Tech Walks

By David Blennerhassett


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): Chart Analysis Affirms Zhongsheng Is Too Cheap

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Historical valuation affirms that Zhongzheng is the cheapest it has been in the past 10 years 
  • Chart analysis is to compliment our recent report Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play published yesterday
  • Our TP of HKD12.5 is based on FY25 PE of 5x. This implies an UPSIDE POTENTIAL of 33%. It also delivers a dividend yield of ~9% at current prices. 

Midea A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium and past A/H Listings

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) aims to raise up to US$3bn in its H-share listing, as per media reports.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the past A/H listing and possible premiums.

HK Exchanges:  Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

By Steven Holden

  • Asia Ex-Japan fund managers continue to reduce their positions in Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing.
  • Percentage of funds invested and the average weight of the stock in portfolios have been on a downward trend since the recent peak in early 2023
  • Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting the stock

Didi Global Q224 Results: EBITA Margin Up | OpCF Still Strong | But Growth Slowed Noticeably

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Estimated take rate up vs year ago and vs Q124, and EBITA margin turned +ive
  • However, revenue growth in core China market slowed considerably in Q224
  • Cash Flow and Liquidity both appear ample, little pressure to raise new funds

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Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Seven & I Holdings, Fuji Soft Inc, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde, Exedy Corp, NVIDIA Corp, Jio Financial Services, Kuaishou Technology, Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions
  • Artisan Partners Writes a Letter To the 7&I Board (3382) – Meh…
  • KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Near US$100bn
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run
  • Select Sector Indices – Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn
  • India: Index Implications of Additions to the F&O Segment
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)
  • Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

By Travis Lundy

  • The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.
  • The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be “late.”
  • There are still questions about implementation – thus “care” in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.

Artisan Partners Writes a Letter To the 7&I Board (3382) – Meh…

By Travis Lundy

  • On 30 August, 7&i shareholder Artisan Partners (holder since 2019, now at 1%) wrote an open letter to the Board of Directors of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) 
  • There are several comments in bold. “It is imperative that the board of directors negotiate with ACT immediately to achieve the best possible outcome for shareholders” is one.
  • The letter is a bit preachy, a bit fluffy, and a bit misleading in parts. But it requests the Company brief shareholders on the negotiations by 19 September 2024. 

KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR has announced its previously leaked takeover of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP). Two activists with 30+% between them have agreed to tender at ¥8,800.  
  • Given what the founder, crossholders, and other arbs own, this gets done easily. Congrats on the win to the activists. 
  • We will see more activism and more pressure on under-earning companies to go private to clean themselves up outside the public eye. Big opportunities for years.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Near US$100bn

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$100bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs year to date and could be driven by the National Team led by Central Huijin supporting the market.
  • Nearly all the net inflows have been focused on the CSI 300, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext and STAR50 indices. Flows to sector ETFs have been mixed.
  • Over 70% of the net inflows have gone to the CSI 300 Index with another 18% going to the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 19+% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run

By Travis Lundy

  • In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) . The market dropped. But that was the opportunity.
  • On 30 May, I said “Buy the deal, buy in the market. It’s cheap and vulnerable.” It’s up 21.5% since (the day after). Peers are down 15-20%. 
  • The company completed its buyback. Murakami Group bought more. The stock (pro-forma) is at 0.62x book, 0.54x book for the non-cash portion. There’s LOTS of cash left. 

Select Sector Indices – Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&P400 Index and S&P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
  • The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
  • Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.

India: Index Implications of Additions to the F&O Segment

By Brian Freitas

  • Following SEBI’s review of eligibility criteria for entry/exit of stocks in the derivatives segment, there could be 18 deletions/79 inclusions in the F&O segment over the next 6 months.
  • The introduction of some stocks in the F&O segment could lead to their inclusion in the NIFTY, SENSEX, Nifty Bank and CNXIT indices and weight changes in the Nifty Next50.
  • The inclusion of stocks in indices with a fixed number of constituents will result in deletion of some stocks from these indices. There should be methodology changes too.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer

By Arun George

  • Nikkei reports that Bain will launch a competing tender offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) around JPY9,200-9,300 per share, around 5% higher than KKR’s offer. 
  • The Board responded that Bain submitted a non-binding proposal on 26 July. The special committee will consider its feasibility if a binding proposal is submitted. 
  • KKR has three options to respond to a higher Bain offer: revise it, launch a hostile offer at unchanged terms, or walk away. The first option is the most likely.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung C&T’s holding company ratio is closing in on 50%, driven by the Biologics rally, which has Samsung on high alert for a forced conversion.
  • Watch Samsung’s moves to avoid forced holding company status. The old Biologics-for-Electronics swap isn’t viable, so they’ll likely sell Biologics shares to lower the ratio.
  • Samsung C&T might sell Biologics shares at a ₩80T market cap. They’ve boosted construction to manage assets and the holding ratio, but beyond ₩80T, risks increase.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Nrg Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • NRG Energy Inc.: A Robust Retail Energy Strategy But Is It Enough?


NRG Energy Inc.: A Robust Retail Energy Strategy But Is It Enough?

By Baptista Research

  • NRG Energy, Inc. delivered a robust financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, marked by significant growth in earnings and aggressive strategic pursuits aimed at capitalizing on current market dynamics.
  • The company reported an Adjusted EBITDA of $935 million, a 14% increase year-over-year, and is trending toward the upper end of its financial guidance for the year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Auckland Intl Airport, Samsung C&T, Dongfang Electric, Sinotrans, On Assignment, Boels, Teledyne Technologies, Verisure Holding AB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Auckland Airport Possible Placement – Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup
  • Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Finding a Bottom
  • Sinotrans-(598.HK) – Interim Results Highlight Risks to Be Managed
  • ASGN Incorporated: Expansion Into IT Sector Consulting & Other Major Drivers
  • Boels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers
  • Verisure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Auckland Airport Possible Placement – Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup

By Sumeet Singh

  • Almost exactly a year ago, Auckland City Council (ACC) raised around US$320m via selling around 7% of its stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ).
  • ACC still has an 11% stake left, which it now plans to transfer to a future fund, which will be free to sell the shares
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. 
  • Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.
  • Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Finding a Bottom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is now closer to the bottom after underperformance due to a weaker-than-expected 1H24 result dragged by low-margin coal-fired products.
  • New contract momentum, however, stayed resilient with a 14.8% YoY increase to Rmb56.1bn in 1H24. Forward backlog coverage is now at 1.8x FY24F revenue.
  • There is a significant Rmb6.3bn positive operating cash flow swing in 1H24. This helps to raise net cash (excluding contract liabilities) to 76.4% of the share price.

Sinotrans-(598.HK) – Interim Results Highlight Risks to Be Managed

By Rikki Malik

  • Volume and revenue grow as the company works with China’s new trading partners
  • Margins and cashflow under pressure due to a weak domestic economy and higher freight rates
  • Cross-Border e-commerce growing fast from a small base relative to other divisions

ASGN Incorporated: Expansion Into IT Sector Consulting & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASGN Incorporated has released its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a mixture of steady performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company reported revenues of $1.035 billion, aligned with the management’s guidance and demonstrating a cautious but steady demand environment similar to the previous quarter.
  • The adjusted EBITDA was $117.1 million, translating to a margin of 11.3%, which is at the higher end of expectations.

Boels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Boels’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Investors evaluating Teledyne Technologies Incorporated should consider both the achievements and challenges reported in their latest financial updates.
  • Notably, the company achieved record free cash flow, allowing for significant allocations towards debt repayment, acquisitions, and stock buybacks.
  • This demonstrates adept financial management and the capability to maintain operational flexibility.

Verisure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Verisure’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Social score, while the Environmental and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


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Daily Brief Health Care: Samsung Biologics , China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Akeso Biopharma Inc, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., Opthea Ltd, Merck & Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off
  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – The Disappointing 24H1 Results Will Not Affect the Privatization Process
  • [Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 Jp) – 2Q Follow-Up
  • Opthea (OPT AU): Getting Closer to Commercialization of First Drug; Fund Raising Adds to Confidence
  • Merck & Co.: Expanding Market for GARDASIL


Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung C&T’s holding company ratio is closing in on 50%, driven by the Biologics rally, which has Samsung on high alert for a forced conversion.
  • Watch Samsung’s moves to avoid forced holding company status. The old Biologics-for-Electronics swap isn’t viable, so they’ll likely sell Biologics shares to lower the ratio.
  • Samsung C&T might sell Biologics shares at a ₩80T market cap. They’ve boosted construction to manage assets and the holding ratio, but beyond ₩80T, risks increase.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – The Disappointing 24H1 Results Will Not Affect the Privatization Process

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s 24H1 results is weaker-than-expected. Net profit YoY growth for the whole year of 2024 could be negative. Based on calculation, without privatization, HK$3.26/share is fair for China TCM.
  • The remedial tax is a “one-time expenditure” to clear the “obstacle” so as to smooth the completion of privatization. Weak financial performance in 24H1 should help the shareholder vote. 
  • Due to the low base in 2024, 2025 is expected to see an obvious performance rebound.Long-term outlook of TCM granules business is still promising, reasonable share price is above HK$5/share.

[Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY

By Eric Wen

  • Akeso reported C1H24 top line, non-IFRS operating loss and IFRS net loss 10% above, 13% narrower and 3.5% narrower than our estimates. 
  • The most positive takeaway from the result is the Phase III start of CD-47 mAb (AK117), which can potentially be a global first-in-class (FIC). 
  • We raised TP from HK$58 to HK$63 and reiterate our TOP BUY.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 Jp) – 2Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • DWTI held a 1H results briefing via ZOOM webinar on Friday 8/23 at 13:30, hosted by President Hidaka.
  • Several important points came up in his answers to questions from analysts during Q&A at the end of the briefing.
  • 1) Dosing in H-1337 PIIb trials in the US has been completed, and in the year-end publication of top-line results, the key expectation is to show non-inferiority of ROCK inhibitor H-1337 (1.0% once daily) versus existing beta blocker Timolol (0.5% twice daily).

Opthea (OPT AU): Getting Closer to Commercialization of First Drug; Fund Raising Adds to Confidence

By Tina Banerjee

  • Opthea Ltd (OPT AU) completed enrollment in two Phase 3 trials for sozinibercept in wet AMD. Topline data from these trials are expected by mid-2025.
  • During FY24, Opthea raised $295M to extend runway through topline data readouts of Phase 3 clinical trials. Further, in July, Opthea raised $38M through retail entitlement offer.
  • Although Opthea is well-funded through mid-2025, any fund requirement beyond that period will be easier to meet amid lower interest rate scenario.

Merck & Co.: Expanding Market for GARDASIL

By Baptista Research

  • Merck & Co.’s second quarter earnings call underscored both the progress and challenges faced by the company as it pushes forward in an increasingly complex pharmaceutical landscape.
  • The company reported a solid quarter with total revenues reaching $16.1 billion, marking a 7% increase.
  • This growth is particularly impressive when considering the 11% increase when excluding the impact of foreign exchange.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Auckland Intl Airport, Samsung C&T, Dongfang Electric, Sinotrans, On Assignment, Boels, Teledyne Technologies, Verisure Holding AB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Auckland Airport Possible Placement – Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup
  • Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Finding a Bottom
  • Sinotrans-(598.HK) – Interim Results Highlight Risks to Be Managed
  • ASGN Incorporated: Expansion Into IT Sector Consulting & Other Major Drivers
  • Boels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers
  • Verisure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Auckland Airport Possible Placement – Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup

By Sumeet Singh

  • Almost exactly a year ago, Auckland City Council (ACC) raised around US$320m via selling around 7% of its stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ).
  • ACC still has an 11% stake left, which it now plans to transfer to a future fund, which will be free to sell the shares
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. 
  • Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.
  • Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Finding a Bottom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is now closer to the bottom after underperformance due to a weaker-than-expected 1H24 result dragged by low-margin coal-fired products.
  • New contract momentum, however, stayed resilient with a 14.8% YoY increase to Rmb56.1bn in 1H24. Forward backlog coverage is now at 1.8x FY24F revenue.
  • There is a significant Rmb6.3bn positive operating cash flow swing in 1H24. This helps to raise net cash (excluding contract liabilities) to 76.4% of the share price.

Sinotrans-(598.HK) – Interim Results Highlight Risks to Be Managed

By Rikki Malik

  • Volume and revenue grow as the company works with China’s new trading partners
  • Margins and cashflow under pressure due to a weak domestic economy and higher freight rates
  • Cross-Border e-commerce growing fast from a small base relative to other divisions

ASGN Incorporated: Expansion Into IT Sector Consulting & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASGN Incorporated has released its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a mixture of steady performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company reported revenues of $1.035 billion, aligned with the management’s guidance and demonstrating a cautious but steady demand environment similar to the previous quarter.
  • The adjusted EBITDA was $117.1 million, translating to a margin of 11.3%, which is at the higher end of expectations.

Boels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Boels’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Teledyne Technologies Incorporated: Will The Improving Trends in Test & Measurement Instruments Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Investors evaluating Teledyne Technologies Incorporated should consider both the achievements and challenges reported in their latest financial updates.
  • Notably, the company achieved record free cash flow, allowing for significant allocations towards debt repayment, acquisitions, and stock buybacks.
  • This demonstrates adept financial management and the capability to maintain operational flexibility.

Verisure – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Verisure’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Social score, while the Environmental and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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