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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 04
0

Daily Brief Health Care: West Pharmaceutical Services Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • West Pharmaceutical Services: Will Its SmartDose Technology Development Enhance The Business Segment’s Competitive Positioning?

West Pharmaceutical Services: Will Its SmartDose Technology Development Enhance The Business Segment’s Competitive Positioning?

By Baptista Research

  • West Pharmaceutical Services has demonstrated a resilient first-quarter performance in 2025, achieving results that exceeded initial expectations, notably benefiting from GLP-1 product contributions and reduced destocking impacts.
  • These factors highlight West’s operational strengths, supported by competitive advantages and robust customer relationships.
  • For the Proprietary Products division, organic sales growth reflected a moderate 2.4% increase, largely driven by pricing strategies and demand for their high-value (HVP) products.

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May 04
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Sankyo Co Ltd, Interpublic Group Of Companies, Toyota Industries, Tractor Supply Company, Pool Corp, Lkq Corp, Hasbro Inc, Oisix ra daichi and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Sankyo Co
  • The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Solid Merger Synergies With Omnicom But These Are The 4 BIGGEST Roadblocks In Its Path!
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General
  • Tractor Supply Company’s PetRx Play: Could This Be the Ultimate Disrupter in Pet Medication?
  • Pool Corporation: A Strategic Approach to Pricing & Market Dynamics To Strengthen Market Stability & Ensure Continued Customer Trust!
  • LKQ Corporation: An Insight Into Its North American Business Strategy And Its Market Position In Aftermarket Collision Parts!
  • Hasbro Inc.: Supply Chain Optimization & Diversification & 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth!
  • Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech

Asian Dividend Gems: Sankyo Co

By Douglas Kim

  • Sankyo is a leading Japanese maker of Pachinko and Pachislot machines. The company has a consistent record of generating positive free cash flow and operating cash flow.
  • It trades at 6x EV/EBITDA (2025E) and P/E of 9.5x (2025E). Its net margin improved from 9.9% in 2021 to 21.8% in 2022, and 27% in 2024.
  • Sankyo has also been aggressively buying back its shares in the past five years. We believe Sankyo could continue to outperform the market in the next 1-2 years. 

The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Solid Merger Synergies With Omnicom But These Are The 4 BIGGEST Roadblocks In Its Path!

By Baptista Research

  • Interpublic Group’s (IPG) recent earnings detailed the company’s financial and operational performance for the first quarter of 2025, illustrating a mixed yet strategically potent landscape.
  • With an organic revenue decrease of 3.6%, this was in line with IPG’s expectations for the quarter.
  • The company attributed this decline to adverse impacts from past account losses, which primarily affected the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

By David Blennerhassett

  • Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.
  • Hainan Meilan (357 HK)‘s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it’s not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

Tractor Supply Company’s PetRx Play: Could This Be the Ultimate Disrupter in Pet Medication?

By Baptista Research

  • Tractor Supply Company (TSC) presented its first quarter results for 2025 with a nuanced report that reflects both strong operational execution and the challenges of a shifting macroeconomic environment.
  • Total sales reached a record $3.47 billion, marking a 2.1% increase despite a 0.9% decline in comparable store sales.
  • The growth in sales figures underscores a robust transaction increase; however, it was offset by a decline in the average ticket size, largely attributed to adverse weather conditions impacting seasonal sales and a resulting product mix shift.

Pool Corporation: A Strategic Approach to Pricing & Market Dynamics To Strengthen Market Stability & Ensure Continued Customer Trust!

By Baptista Research

  • Pool Corporation’s (POOLCORP) first-quarter results for 2025 reveal both challenges and resilience amid a fluctuating market environment.
  • The company recorded net sales of $1.1 billion, a decline of 4% year-over-year, though this figure improved to a 2% decline when adjusting for the same selling days.
  • The first quarter was marked by challenging weather conditions in key markets and an Easter holiday that shifted sales into the second quarter.

LKQ Corporation: An Insight Into Its North American Business Strategy And Its Market Position In Aftermarket Collision Parts!

By Baptista Research

  • LKQ Corporation’s recent financial results reflect a mixed performance, with both favorable developments and ongoing challenges evident in its earnings report.
  • During the quarter, LKQ reported diluted earnings per share of $0.65, marking a $0.06 increase compared to the previous year.
  • However, on an adjusted basis, diluted EPS stood at $0.79, reflecting a slight decline of $0.03 from the prior year, mainly due to decreased segment EBITDA dollars in LKQ’s North American market.

Hasbro Inc.: Supply Chain Optimization & Diversification & 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Hasbro performed well in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by the success of its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segments.
  • The company reported a 17% increase in revenue, reaching $887 million, largely fueled by strong sales from the MAGIC: THE GATHERING franchise and robust licensing performance.
  • Key strategic initiatives, such as the “Play to Win” strategy, reinforced cost discipline and emphasized profitable growth, contributing to a 50% rise in adjusted operating profit, which resulted in a 70% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $1.04.

Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech

By Michael Causton

  • Given Japan’s growing interest in food-based health solutions, multiple players are looking to build businesses in the field across gut health and dietary solutions for the old and infirm.
  • Oisix, the leading online food retailer has developed an incubator for start ups in this area.
  • It is hoping to create a mini silicon valley for food tech businesses.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (May25) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (May25), Minor Updates

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (May25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 370 new CGRs filed since 1-Apr-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Mgmt Conscious updates came this month. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. ‘Going Private’ policy is under public comment now.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
  • Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
  • 200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief ESG: Substantial “pre AGM Filing of Annual Securities Reports” Will Be After 2027 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Substantial “pre AGM Filing of Annual Securities Reports” Will Be After 2027

Substantial “pre AGM Filing of Annual Securities Reports” Will Be After 2027

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even if annual securities reports are filed earlier, a few days before the AGM, there is not enough time for institutional investors to use them for proxy voting.
  • Many companies believe that they could control the AGM by two things: diversifying shareholder attention by holding the AGM on the same day and not providing sufficient information to shareholders.
  • In its next request, FSA plans to encourage companies to move AGM to later date by changing “record date.” However, it’ll take time to come to a compromise with companies.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Seven-Day Winning Streak
  • #141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback
  • STAN – Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY
  • WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: Deep-Sea Mining Industry Coming of Age
  • Thematic Report : Why Is India’s Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade

By Sanghyun Park

  • If the judicial overhang is overstated, it could distort the regime-change narrative and create new entry points for a deep value setup.
  • The local tape is overpricing post-win disqualification risk, creating a fear premium that could be low-hanging alpha for contrarians willing to fade the noise.
  • Monitor Lee’s poll numbers, as public sentiment impacts the judiciary. This offers a chance to front-run shifts and capitalize on the next rotation, potentially turning into a stealthy upside play.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Seven-Day Winning Streak

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese markets surged, with the Nikkei rising 3.2% on a weaker yen, strong earnings, and tech sector gains, while BoJ held rates steady amid cautious forecasts.
  • Japan’s economic data showed mixed trends, including falling industrial output, modest retail growth, and declining consumer confidence, raising concerns about domestic demand and labour market softness.
  • Top stock performers included Sumi Pharma, Toyota Industries, and Nidec, driven by strong earnings, privatization speculation, and bold profit and restructuring plans that lifted investor sentiment.

#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • China is “evaluating” the U.S. tariff negotiation offer, demanding tariff removal and addressing practices, while the U.S. stays optimistic.
  • Oyo (1698548D IN) delays its IPO to 2026, targeting a $7 billion valuation, amid SoftBank’s concerns and restructuring of a $2.2 billion loan. 
  • JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power is rejected by the Supreme Court, directing liquidation, causing shares to drop 6%.

STAN – Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
  • STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
  • Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: Deep-Sea Mining Industry Coming of Age

By Water Tower Research

  • On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we joined host Tim Gerdeman, Founder, Vice-Chairman, and Chief Marketing Officer at WTR, to discuss the recent developments in the deep-sea mining industry, including pros and cons of seabed mining, the importance of polymetallic nodules in meeting global critical metals needs and the regulatory environment, including the ISA’s inability to deliver on its mandate, and the US government’s steps to position the country as a leader in seabed mining.

  • Technological improvements and growing body of environmental data make DSM a viable pathway to critical metal independence.

  • While the roots of deep-sea mining go back to the 1970s and 1980s, with the US leading the way in technology of environmentally responsible mining of seabed mineral resources, significant work has been done over the past 50 years to optimize the collection technology and develop regulatory standards for safe exploitation of deep-sea mineral and metal deposits, dispelling much of the NGO-raised speculation with respect to the environmental impact of such activities.

Thematic Report : Why Is India’s Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year
  • This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC’s merger in it’s case.
  • Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops
  • [Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment
  • Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More
  • KRON Acquisition by Kevin Tang: Analyzing the CVR Structure and Potential Shareholder Value Outcomes
  • Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas
  • Weekly Financial Insights: KRON Buyout, SAGE Earnings, BOOM Performance and More

StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment

By Richard Howe

  • On a sum-of-the-parts basis, LION and STRZ are worth significantly more than is reflected in LGF.A’s stock price.

  • At the close today, investors could buy 1 share of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A) for $8.90. On May 6, that investor will receive 1.12 shares of LION and 1.12 shares of STRZ.

  • I estimate LION is worth $11 and STRZ is worth $1.71. As such, it looks like there is ~60% upside

Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Theratechnologies (THTX) received takeover offers from Future Pak, with a $3.51/share cash offer plus a CVR worth $0.99/share.
  • Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC) plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with priority for tenders below 375 shares.
  • Lensar (LNSR) is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share cash plus a CVR worth up to $2.75/share.

KRON Acquisition by Kevin Tang: Analyzing the CVR Structure and Potential Shareholder Value Outcomes

By Special Situation Investments

  • KRON is being acquired at $0.57/share plus a CVR, below expected net cash of $1/share.
  • The CVR includes four components, with the “Additional Closing Net Cash” being the primary potential value source.
  • Management’s 27% ownership suggests deal approval, despite potential risks and uncertainties in CVR payout assumptions.

Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods is likely to be sold to Danone, with a potential 14%+ upside, following board changes.
  • Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating a strategic review, indicating potential for a higher acquisition premium.
  • Liquidia’s patent lawsuit win enables drug commercialization, expected to gain market share and significantly increase valuation.

Weekly Financial Insights: KRON Buyout, SAGE Earnings, BOOM Performance and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Kronos Bio (KRON) signed an acquisition agreement at $0.57/share plus a CVR, below expected net cash value.
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported Q1 revenue growth, ongoing strategic review, and management urged to cut costs or sell.
  • DMC Global (BOOM) exceeded Q1 guidance but faces uncertain outlook due to tariffs and demand destruction.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief ECM: Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
  • The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
  • Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
  • The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
  • US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Apple Mar-25 Inline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China
  • If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.
  • JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback
  • Source Rock Royalties : Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals
  • Amazon 1Q’25 Update
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well
  • Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
  • Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. 
  • Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. 
  • Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. 

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

  • The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

  • It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.

  • AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
  • The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
  • The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Source Rock Royalties : Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

By Atrium Research

  • Source Rock is an oil and gas royalty company with interests in lands across Saskatchewan and Alberta.
  • SRR has grown average daily production at a 16% CAGR since 2021, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing at a 22% CAGR.
  • Source Rock offers a >9% dividend yield which has grown at 2.5% annually since initiating the dividend in 2014.

Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
  • Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
  • After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 12% YoY growth in revenue in 1Q25, as pharmaceuticals sales grew backed by a 35% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥75.7B.
  • The company reiterated 2025 guidance. Higher costs to dent margins with subdued sales of Lonsurf, Jynarque.
  • Indication expansion of Rexulti and Araris acquisition augur well for the company from a mid to long term perspective.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

By Nicolas Baratte

  • What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
  • At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
  • Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  

Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences delivered a mixed performance in their latest financial results, reflecting both strengths and challenges across their portfolio.
  • The company reported overall product sales of $6.6 billion for the first quarter, a 1% decline year-over-year, primarily attributable to a significant decrease in sales of Veklury, a COVID-19 treatment, which was down 45%.
  • The core business, however, excluding Veklury, demonstrated growth with a 4% increase, driven largely by their HIV segment and liver disease treatments.

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
  • The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
  • This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

By Baptista Research

  • Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
  • Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
  • The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

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