All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Sotetsu Holdings, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Mastech Digital , NOW Inc, Urban-Gro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring
  • Sotetsu Placement: Low Valuation and Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • MHH: Mastech Digital Starts the Year with a New CEO
  • DNOW, Inc. – Expect 2025 Growth Despite Uncertain Upstream Activity
  • UGRO: A New Start; Cleaning Up and Moving Forward with Realistic Expectations


Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring

By Travis Lundy

  • Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) today announced a large-ish secondary equity offering – 10% of shares out and 20% of Max Real World Float. 
  • This is crossholders selling down roughly 30% of what they own. Sotetsu announced a buyback for a quarter of the offering over the next six months.
  • The shareholder structure and distribution within Max Real World Float tells you all you need to know.

Sotetsu Placement: Low Valuation and Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance

By Nicholas Tan

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$135m from selling their respective stakes in Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) .
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports, ReNew Energy
  • In the US, January 2025 housing starts fell 9.8% m-o-m (-7.3% e / 16.1% p) to an annualised pace of 1.37 mn units, as builders pulled back on construction after a surge in December 2024. Meanwhile, building permits rose 0.1% (-1.5% e / -0.7% p) in January 2025.

  • The minutes of the US FOMC’s January 28-29th meeting showed that Fed officials expressed readiness to hold the policy rate at a restrictive level, if the economy remains strong and inflation stays elevated.


MHH: Mastech Digital Starts the Year with a New CEO

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US.
  • The company trades below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation now that the company has returned to growth and taken on a new extremely experienced CEO.
  • It also plans to grow through acquisition.

DNOW, Inc. – Expect 2025 Growth Despite Uncertain Upstream Activity

By Water Tower Research

  • DNOW’s capacity to generate free cash flow, coupled with its strong balance sheet, position the company to capitalize on accretive growth opportunities in 2025 and continue returning cash to shareholders through its share repurchase program.
  • The company generated $289 million of free cash flow during 2024 and ended the year with $256 million of cash on the balance sheet.
  • fter completing an $80 million share repurchase program in 4Q24, the board authorized a new $160 million repurchase program in January 2025.

UGRO: A New Start; Cleaning Up and Moving Forward with Realistic Expectations

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating on UGRO, but lowering our projections and price target (from $8 to $3) after the company regaining compliance with their financial filings after switching auditors at the end of May 2024.
  • While the re-audited changes are (in our opinion) minor, the simultaneous release of results for 2Q24 and 3Q24 show urban-gro is still in transition, even while management aggressively reduces costs and focuses on profitable projects.
  • As such, and given UGRO now trades near historic lows as investors lost patience with the lengthy accounting review and the expected approval of cannabis in Florida and Federal cannabis category shifts have not occurred, we believe it is appropriate for us to be less aggressive in the near term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: Banco De Sabadell SA, New China Life Insurance, S&P Global , Axis Bank Ltd, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BBVA/Sabadell: Implications of CNMC Decision, How Much Should BBVA Raise?
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (20-Feb-2025): APAC investors love rate cuts, HK is buyers’ market: Colliers
  • S&P Global: How Data, Indexes, and AI Are Shaping Its Future!
  • Farcical Saga of Axis Bank’s Chief Audit Executives
  • SES AI Corp. – CEO Qichao Hu Talks About Battery Materials Discovery, New Markets Beyond EVs


BBVA/Sabadell: Implications of CNMC Decision, How Much Should BBVA Raise?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The CNMC’s provisional report requires BBVA to extend commitments to SMEs for three years instead of 18 months, a condition seen as manageable but opposed by Sabadell’s leadership.
  • BBVA’s exchange offer for Sabadell values its shares at €2.37, below the market price of €2.504, implying a 5.3% shortfall, increasing pressure for BBVA to improve its bid.
  • The Spanish government opposes the takeover, and political intervention, regulatory hurdles, and a history of failed hostile bank takeovers in Europe could significantly impact the deal’s success.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (20-Feb-2025): APAC investors love rate cuts, HK is buyers’ market: Colliers

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • APAC investors are welcoming rate cuts, with Hong Kong remaining a buyers’ market, according to Colliers.
  • KKR & M&G invest $509M in an Aussie Warehouse Portfolio, while PGIM JV acquires Queensland sheds.
  • Vanke partners with government insurers for a $220M housing JV, demonstrating state support in the real estate sector.

S&P Global: How Data, Indexes, and AI Are Shaping Its Future!

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global reported a robust 2024, evidenced by revenue growth and improved profitability metrics.
  • The company reported a 15% increase in revenue, excluding the effect of divested Engineering Solutions in 2023.
  • Subscription products grew by 7%.

Farcical Saga of Axis Bank’s Chief Audit Executives

By Hemindra Hazari

  • 2 Heads of Audit in 1 month with another replacement within 6 months
  • Audit head in a bank is a highly sensitive post and the banking regulator recommends a minimum tenure of 3 years for the post
  • Internal audit in Axis Bank has become a major concern which should worry investors

SES AI Corp. – CEO Qichao Hu Talks About Battery Materials Discovery, New Markets Beyond EVs

By Water Tower Research

  • “AI for Science’ is SES AI’s approach to using the latest cutting-edge GNNs and LLMs to augment battery materials discovery.
  • “We can actually map all the physical and chemical properties of the small molecules. We did that, and then recently, we expanded to [electrolytes] for any lithium batteries….
  • We’re expanding to lithium-ion for robots, drones, and energy storage. We found that this tool itself is actually really powerful. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
  • Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
  • The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates, Trump Escalates Tariffs
  • Consumer Stocks – Waiting to Catch a Fire
  • Data Center: How Indian Companies Are Capitalizing on the Digital Boom?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down
  • #105 India Insight: Gold Leasing Rates Surge, Tax Cuts Ease Foreign Firms’ Burden, Unilever Expands
  • India –Electric Two-Wheeler Sales Trend – January 2025
  • #106 India Insight: Adani Cement Targets 140 Mtpa by 2028; Vedanta Demerger Gets 83% Nod; SEC Probes


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise as Fed Signals Steady Rates, Trump Escalates Tariffs

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P gained 0.2% to a record 6,144; Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year at 4.53%; NKY Futs -0.5% vs cash
  • Listed companies’ profits are expected to reach a record ¥50 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, up 6% year-on-year
  • Mitsui & Co. acquired a 40% stake in the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project in Australia for ¥600 billion

Consumer Stocks – Waiting to Catch a Fire

By Rikki Malik

  • Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
  • Expectations are so low that there is  a high probability of upside surprises
  • An unloved sector that will rerate on any positive catalyst

Data Center: How Indian Companies Are Capitalizing on the Digital Boom?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s data center market currently holds an approximately 3% share globally, despite generating 20% of the world’s data which signifies the scope of opportunity.
  • ICRA projects India’s data center operational capacity to more than 2x with an estimated investment of Rs. 50k-55k Crs fueled by the increasing demand for colocation services.
  • Management of key players like Tata Communications (TCOM IN) and Anant Raj Ltd (ARCP IN) highlight the immense growth potential of the Indian data center market.

Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down

By Andrew Jackson

  • Good numbers from Analog Devices pointing to a bottom should help likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric.
  • SMCI tear continues, will Nidec keep moving up after yesterdays gains?
  • Sanken Electric +10.45% yesterday finally starting to catch a bid on ALGM gains.

#105 India Insight: Gold Leasing Rates Surge, Tax Cuts Ease Foreign Firms’ Burden, Unilever Expands

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Gold leasing rates have surged from 2-3% to 6-7%, squeezing jewellers margins. Higher funding costs and volatile gold prices are forcing industry leaders to reconsider pricing strategies.
  • Foreign companies in India paid the lowest tax on earnings in over 30 years in FY24, with the tax burden dropping significantly due to corporate tax cuts and GST reforms.
  • Despite slow growth in India, Unilever (UL US) remains committed to its local operations, with plans to focus on expanding its beauty & wellbeing segment as part of its 2030 strategy.

India –Electric Two-Wheeler Sales Trend – January 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria


#106 India Insight: Adani Cement Targets 140 Mtpa by 2028; Vedanta Demerger Gets 83% Nod; SEC Probes

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Cement is actively pursuing acquisitions in South India and the North-East to boost its capacity to 140 MTPA by 2028.
  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) has secured 83% creditor approval for its demerger plan, surpassing the 75% required threshold. 
  • The U.S. SEC has requested India’s help in investigating Gautam Adani and his nephew over alleged securities fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
  • Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
  • HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High
  • Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

By Travis Lundy

  • After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
  • The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while. 
  • But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

By Sumeet Singh

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
  • Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR & Co (KKR US) is looking to raise around US$160m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) .
  • KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had earlier tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024. Hence, the selldown is very well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger

By Sumeet Singh

  • MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
  • In JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High

By Nicholas Tan

  • Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market, offering a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.
  • MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.
  • The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers – e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues


Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

By Leandro Gubler

  • We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
  • P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
  • Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps
  • StubWorld: PPB In The Doghouse, But These Levels Are Excessive
  • Canvest (1381 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied
  • India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn
  • EquiLend Gets in on Korea’s Securities Lending Digital Shift: Trading Impact
  • Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery
  • Canvest (1381 HK): SAFE In The Bag, But Oddly, Still Not Free From Pre-Cons


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

By Brian Freitas

  • With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
  • The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

StubWorld: PPB In The Doghouse, But These Levels Are Excessive

By David Blennerhassett

  • PPB Group (PEP MK)‘s grains & agri arm, and four other feedmillers, has been labelled a cartel and fined by the Malaysian competition watchdog. A judicial review is ongoing.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Canvest (1381 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • The regulatory precondition concerning Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)’s privatisation offer from Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) has been satisfied. 
  • The sole remaining precondition concerns resolving loan guarantee issues. Canvest is taking steps to resolve these issues, and satisfying this precondition is low-risk. 
  • Despite peers’ re-rating, the offer remains attractive, and the vote is low-risk. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 4.5%/15.0% for a mid-June payment. 

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

By Brian Freitas

  • The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
  • The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
  • Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.

EquiLend Gets in on Korea’s Securities Lending Digital Shift: Trading Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • The remaining third of Korea’s local securities lending market is moving to digital, potentially sparking a whole new trading landscape.
  • Integrating EquiLend with local platforms boosts post-short-selling volume and shifts a large portion of manual trades into the digital space.
  • This could spark new algo trading strategies, and with short selling resuming March 31, we’ll need to track how the flow evolves.

Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.
  • Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).
  • Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).

Canvest (1381 HK): SAFE In The Bag, But Oddly, Still Not Free From Pre-Cons

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) announced on the 23rd Jan it had secured Mofcom approval, after securing NDRC earlier that month, that left SAFE. Or so I thought. 
  • SAFE has now been secured, yet two pre-cons concerning certain (internal) guarantees remain outstanding. It’s rare to see SAFE sign off with other pre-cons still hanging. 
  • The consolation here is that KM Lai (ED, DC) and Loretta Lee (ED, CL) are on the hook for a chunk of change if they cause the proposal to lapse.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz?
  • Intel. What’s Really Going On?
  • Tam Jai International (2217 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good
  • Insider Selling at Rainbow Robotics
  • China Education Group (839 HK): A Large Disappointment
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – February 2025
  • Deep Industries Limited: Q3 & 9M FY25 – Stellar Performance Driven by Strategic Growth Initiatives
  • Incyte: Can Opzelura Offset Jakafi’s $3.7B Patent Cliff by 2028?
  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out
  • Kuantum Papers Limited Q3 Update: Navigating Market Pressures with Strategic Initiatives


Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz?

By Money of Mine

  • Discussion on recent acquisitions and earnings highlights in the resource sector
  • Focus on BHP’s South Australian copper business and potential growth opportunities
  • Analysis of return on capital employed for different assets within BHP’s portfolio

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Intel. What’s Really Going On?

By William Keating

  • Carving out IFS & taking it private is the most likely outcome for Intel. However, it’s complicated by the SCIP deals and restrictions attached to the CHIPS money.  
  • Intel Products Group most likely stays with Intel, maintaining the iconic brand and doubling down on efficiency and innovation. I don’t think it gets sold. 
  • TSMC is unlikely to have any technical role in a spun out Intel Foundry due to a myriad of reasons including monopoly, conflict of interest, insufficient bandwidth etc.

Tam Jai International (2217 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Tam Jai’s performance in recent years has been consistently below expectations. Its fundamentals have undergone negative changes after IPO. Consumers’ preference change may disrupt Tam Jai’s business model.
  • Based on our forecast and the Cancellation Price of HK$1.58/share, P/E will be higher than the industry average. Considering the low trading liquidity and concerns on outlook, HK$1.58/share is acceptable.
  • The fundamentals/prospects of Tam Jai are different from the situation of Henlius’ privatization.We recommend investors not reject the privatization easily because internationalization won’t bring significant positive changes in short term.

Insider Selling at Rainbow Robotics

By Douglas Kim

  • On 19 February, it was reported that Rainbow Robotics’ VP Kim In-Hyeok sold 30,000 of his 55,000 shares (0.28% stake) on the 14th. Disposal price was 413,796 won per share.
  • At end of 2024, Samsung Electronics announced that it will become the largest shareholder of Rainbow Robotics which has been the key reason why Rainbow Robotics’ share price has surged.
  • Despite Samsung Electronics becoming the largest shareholder of Rainbow Robotics, the overly stretched valuations could result in higher downside risk ahead. It is trading at P/S of 106x in 2026.

China Education Group (839 HK): A Large Disappointment

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK)‘s plunge in share price is due to management’s guidance for a 10-15% drop in adjusted net profit, significantly lower than the current consensus.
  • Its decision to pause dividends for the foreseeable future on debt repayment burden and tight offshore refinancing environment for the sector has further disappointed the market.
  • Based on guidance, its PER of 3.7x and nil dividend yield for FY25 make it unattractive relative to peers (1.7-2.9x PER). We shy away until things improve.


Deep Industries Limited: Q3 & 9M FY25 – Stellar Performance Driven by Strategic Growth Initiatives

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) Q3 & 9M FY25 revenue surged 47% and EBITDA grew 53%, driven by robust order book (Rs. 2,701 crore) and major contracts like the ONGC PEC order.
  • Robust growth underscores Deep Industries strategic positioning in the energy sector, with record profitability and order book expansion paving the way for long-term value creation amid favorable government initiatives.
  • Company is anticipating a growth of more than 30% year-on-year for the next 3 years with target revenue of 800Cr in FY26 and margin of 45-47%.

Incyte: Can Opzelura Offset Jakafi’s $3.7B Patent Cliff by 2028?

By Baptista Research

  • Incyte Corporation’s recent financial and corporate update for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 showcases a year of significant growth and strategic progress.
  • The company achieved a 15% increase in total revenues, reaching $4.2 billion for the year, driven by a robust 8% growth in Jakafi sales and a 50% surge in Opzelura revenues.
  • The financial health of Incyte remains strong, with $2.2 billion in cash reserves and no debt, allowing the company to complete a $2 billion share repurchase program.

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term
  • We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains
  • Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling

Kuantum Papers Limited Q3 Update: Navigating Market Pressures with Strategic Initiatives

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN)‘s Q3 & 9M FY25 results show revenue and EBITDA declines, yet steady sales volumes, cost optimization initiatives, and ongoing mill expansion efforts.
  • Strategic cost management and mill expansion position the company to mitigate revenue challenges, ensuring long-term competitiveness in a dynamic paper industry.
  • Industry is also asking for anti-dumping duty on some set of paper, especially copier, to make a level playing field with imported products.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect
  • The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown
  • Sri Lanka’s Rubber Product Exports Script Steady Growth In 2024
  • Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008
  • UK Prices Surge Into 2025
  • RBNZ: 50bp Rate Cut To 3.75% (Consensus 3.75%) in Feb-25
  • CX Daily: Casino Plan Could Put Thailand Behind Only Las Vegas and Macao
  • Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.75%) in Feb-25


U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect

By Alex Ng

  • If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
  • 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
  • Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.

The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.
  • Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.

  • Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.


Sri Lanka’s Rubber Product Exports Script Steady Growth In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Export earning crosses US$1 billion in 2024, up 7.66% from 2023  
  • Local downstream producers appalled over rubber yield fall  
  • Domestic tire industry in a bid to consolidate  

Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

By William Mann

  • Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
  • Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
  • Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


UK Prices Surge Into 2025

By Phil Rush

  • UK CPI inflation jumped 0.2pp beyond expectations to 3% y-o-y in January amid broadly excessive price rises, to the extent that the median annualises at almost 6%.
  • Underlying pressures have been trending higher since easing began, and the headline rate is set to keep rising, albeit with little change before the BoE’s likely cut in May.
  • Demand growth keeps unemployment low, suggesting monetary conditions are too loose for tight cyclical pressures. We expect rate hikes in 2026 to reverse premature cuts.

RBNZ: 50bp Rate Cut To 3.75% (Consensus 3.75%) in Feb-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the OCR by 50 basis points to 3.75%, in line with expectations, citing declining inflationary pressures and significant economic slack, with further cuts likely through 2025.
  • While near-term inflation may experience volatility due to exchange rate depreciation and higher fuel costs, core inflation and inflation expectations remain well-anchored around the target midpoint.
  • Global risks, including trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical fragmentation, pose downside risks to growth. Still, the Committee remains confident that maintaining inflation stability will provide flexibility to respond to future shocks.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: Casino Plan Could Put Thailand Behind Only Las Vegas and Macao

By Caixin Global

  • Casinos / In Depth: Casino plan could put Thailand behind only Las Vegas and Macao
  • Consumption /In Depth: China’s policymakers target consumption to kick economy into gear
  • Energy Insider /: BYD crushes rivals in global EV sales, oil producing ship that captures its own emissions unveiled

Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.75%) in Feb-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bank Indonesia held the BI-Rate at 5.75%, in line with expectations, maintaining a cautious stance as inflation remains within target and global financial uncertainty persists.
  • The central bank reinforced macroprudential measures to support credit growth and external stability, including expanding the KLM programme and strengthening foreign exchange policies.
  • Future rate decisions will be data-driven, with further easing contingent on inflation stability, Rupiah resilience, and global financial market developments, particularly the trajectory of US monetary policy.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Goodman Group, BHP Group Ltd, Sigma Healthcare and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
  • Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
  • Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz?
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps


Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

By Travis Lundy

  • After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
  • The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while. 
  • But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

By Sumeet Singh

  • Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
  • Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz?

By Money of Mine

  • Discussion on recent acquisitions and earnings highlights in the resource sector
  • Focus on BHP’s South Australian copper business and potential growth opportunities
  • Analysis of return on capital employed for different assets within BHP’s portfolio

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

By Brian Freitas

  • With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
  • The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars