Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The Gap Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing a mix of positive outcomes and ongoing challenges across its portfolio of brands.
Highlights of the quarter include improvements in certain financial metrics and continued execution of its strategic initiatives, although the company is facing headwinds primarily related to tariffs which could impact its financial outlook.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.

CrowdStrike Is Replacing Legacy Cybersecurity With Adaptive Models & Lightning-Fast Threat Detection; What’s The Revenue Impact?

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a leader in cybersecurity, delivered a robust performance in its fiscal first quarter of 2026, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
The company’s headline achievement was its double-digit million-dollar addition to net new ARR, significantly surpassing expectations and reaching an ending ARR of $4.4 billion.
This milestone reinforces its stature as a dominant player in pure-play cybersecurity software at scale.

Guidewire’s Cloud Takeover: How It’s Winning Big With Insurers & Crushing Legacy Systems!

Guidewire Software, Inc.’s latest financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a mix of robust performance and strategic progress.
The company reported a record-breaking quarter in terms of sales activities, showcasing strong demand for its cloud offerings, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reaching $960 million.
Notably, Guidewire expects to surpass the $1 billion ARR milestone by the end of the fiscal year, indicating significant traction and growth in their subscription model.

e.l.f. Beauty Just Acquired rhode—Can This Power Duo Redefine Celebrity Skincare?

e.l.f. Beauty recently reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2025, characterized by continued momentum and strategic expansion initiatives.
The company exhibited a robust growth trajectory, marking its 25th consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
For fiscal 2025, net sales increased by 28%, while adjusted EBITDA went up by 26%.

UiPath Inc.: Expansion in Vertical & Public Sector Markets to Diversify Revenue Streams!

UiPath, a leader in robotic process automation (RPA), recently reported its first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, highlighting both progress and challenges amidst a variable macroeconomic environment.
The company announced revenue of $357 million, a modest year-over-year increase of 6%, and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.693 billion, reflecting a 12% increase.
While these figures exceeded expectations, it’s important to dive deeper into the dynamics driving these results.

Cooper Companies: Product Expansion

Cooper Companies delivered a solid second quarter fiscal performance for 2025, exhibiting a 7% organic growth in consolidated revenues, driven primarily by robust expansions in its CooperVision and CooperSurgical segments.
CooperVision’s revenue reached $670 million, showcasing a 7% organic growth, while CooperSurgical posted revenues of $333 million with similar organic growth.
The performance was notably buoyed by double-digit growth in key product lines such as daily silicone hydrogel lenses and the office and surgical portfolio.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Cuts Jobs—Why Is The Management Focused On Building A Leaner Tech Giant?

Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s fiscal 2025 second quarter performance presents a mixed bag of outcomes, reflecting both areas of improvement and ongoing challenges.
Revenue reached $7.6 billion, showing a 7% year-over-year increase, which exceeded the upper bound of the company’s guidance.
This growth was driven by strong revenue performance across all product segments, notably in AI systems and Intelligent Edge.

How Is Synopsys Thriving Globally While China Sales Decline—What’s the Real Strategy?

Synopsys Inc. reported a robust second quarter for fiscal year 2025, showcasing substantial strength in revenue growth and operational execution.
The company achieved a 10% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $1.6 billion, surpassing the midpoint of its forecast.
Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) also exceeded expectations, underlining the efficacy of Synopsys’ business model amid challenging market conditions.

Costco Wholesale Corporation: Supply Chain Optimization to Enhance Efficiency & Support Competitive Pricing Strategy!

Costco Wholesale Corporation’s financial and operational performance during the third quarter of fiscal 2025 reflects a mix of strategic growth and operational challenges.
The company reported net income of $1.9 billion, an increase of over 13% from the previous year, and net sales rose to $61.96 billion, up 8% compared to the prior year.
These improvements were driven by solid sales momentum despite persistent headwinds like a $130 million LIFO charge and adverse foreign exchange impacts, which collectively affected net profit.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief India: Vedanta Ltd, Ircon International, Prince Pipes and Fittings, Innovatiview India Ltd, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles
The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow
Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles

FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN) (IIL) is planning to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO.
IIL is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
As of Sep 24, IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, according to F&S Report.

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) (0180301D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, SBI Caps.
CMPDIL provides consultancy and support services across the full range of coal and mineral exploration, mine planning and design.
As per the CRISIL Report, it is the largest coal and mineral consultancy in India by market share in FY25 and serves as the preferred consultant for Coal India Limited.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief China: PDD Holdings, FS.COM, Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted
FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 02 – 06): Broad Gains as Option Activity Fades

Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted

By Ming Lu

The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.
The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.
However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.

FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

FS.COM Limited (FS) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Sec, and CMS.
FS is the world’s second largest online DTC networking solution provider in terms of revenue in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
It focuses on providing general networking solutions and high-performance networking solutions mainly to the US and Europe, serving more than 450,000 customers and covering approx. 60% of Fortune 500 companies.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 02 – 06): Broad Gains as Option Activity Fades

By John Ley

A weekly roundup of key option and price metrics for Hong Kong single stocks.
Option volumes on par with the lowest levels seen over the past 6 months.
Implied volatility appears to have broadly settled around current levels.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief Japan: Metaplanet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Metaplanet (3350) | Metaplanet’s Treasury Ambition Grows

Metaplanet (3350) | Metaplanet’s Treasury Ambition Grows

By Mark Chadwick

Metaplanet aims to raise ¥745B via a 555M share issuance to expand its Bitcoin holdings, targeting 100,000 BTC by end-2026.
The raise implies significant dilution, but rising share prices and strong NISA retail demand could make the capital goal achievable within 12–18 months.
Early investors benefit structurally from raises above NAV, as Metaplanet evolves into a long-term institutional vehicle for Bitcoin exposure and monetary debasement hedging.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief Industrials: Ircon International, Prince Pipes and Fittings, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles
The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow
Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles

FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) (0180301D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, SBI Caps.
CMPDIL provides consultancy and support services across the full range of coal and mineral exploration, mine planning and design.
As per the CRISIL Report, it is the largest coal and mineral consultancy in India by market share in FY25 and serves as the preferred consultant for Coal India Limited.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief ECM: FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Pops 20% After Midpoint Pricing

FS.COM Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

FS.COM Limited (FS) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Sec, and CMS.
FS is the world’s second largest online DTC networking solution provider in terms of revenue in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
It focuses on providing general networking solutions and high-performance networking solutions mainly to the US and Europe, serving more than 450,000 customers and covering approx. 60% of Fortune 500 companies.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN) (IIL) is planning to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO.
IIL is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
As of Sep 24, IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, according to F&S Report.

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) (0180301D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, SBI Caps.
CMPDIL provides consultancy and support services across the full range of coal and mineral exploration, mine planning and design.
As per the CRISIL Report, it is the largest coal and mineral consultancy in India by market share in FY25 and serves as the preferred consultant for Coal India Limited.

Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Pops 20% After Midpoint Pricing

By IPO Boutique

`Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) priced a full-size deal of 7.9mm shares at $19.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $19.00 for a gain of 21% at first trade.
Omada finished north of 15-times oversubscribed with allocations highly concentrated and skewed to long-only investors.
Our sources stated that the top ten accounts took greater than 50% of the deal and the top 25 took 80% of the transaction.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Most Read: BYD, Solar Industries India, Henderson Land Development, Pop Mart International Group L, Keppel DC REIT, Bank of Jiangsu , Tam Jai International, FnGuide Inc, Great Eastern Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes
Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves
FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades
Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) will replace Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) in the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) at the close on 20 June.
The SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) will need to trade between 3-5 days of ADV in the add and delete.
The ETF trading could help Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) break out of its short-term downtrend and could add further pressure on Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP).

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

The iShares A50 China (2823 HK) and CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 June.
Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) will replace Great Wall Motor (601633 CH) in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks.
This change is a surprise to us and there could be a short-term move in the stocks.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By David Blennerhassett

On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves

By Phil Rush

The ECB was even more hesitant to signal cuts than we expected, with the level after the unsurprising cut now deemed well-positioned. Cuts will require downside news.
Disinflationary surprises across the Euro area in the May flash releases are already embedded in that assessment. Doves are poorly positioned for this reaction function.
US inflation data may be the most crucial global release next week, although the signal may not be clear. Statistical issues affect the UK labour market and GDP data.

FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s ETF market just hit KRW 200T AUM — doubling in under 2 years. ETFs now make up ~10% of KOSPI’s cap and over half its daily trading volume.
FnGuide dominates Korea’s sector theme ETF space, capturing ~KRW 9T of the KRW 14T market — far ahead of KRX — with momentum accelerating in early 2025.
FnGuide’s rebalancing process is drawing more trader interest lately, with rising inquiries suggesting faster market learning — prompting earlier pre-positioning in sector ETF flow trades.

Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

The prior Offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) closed on the 12th July 2024, with OCBC holding 93.62%. Shares have been suspended ever since. Compulsory acquisition was not afforded.
To break the deadlock, I mused in This Needs To Be Sorted: Great Eastern (GE SP)’s Protracted Suspension, that OCBC needed to come out with a improved Offer of ~S$30/share.
That has now unfolded. Minorities have the option of a S$30.15/share Exit Offer; or voting for the resumption of trading, which will be possible via the issuance of bonus shares.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals
Hong Kong Banks – Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit
Thematic Report: Indian Pipe Sector Turnaround
Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown
Thematic Report: AI’s Productivity Gains; Quantifying Revenue Risk for Indian IT
[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/NIO US/New Energy Vehicle
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/1024 HK/JD US/TCOM US/3690 HK/NTES US/AI Sector Update
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 06/06/2025

China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals

By Jacob Cheng

We are turning bullish on the sector. We think there are several structural drivers that will improve the sector as a whole, both on demand and supply side
Continued low onshore rates will boost the property market as well as reduce funding cost for developers. The decline in new start will also help support home prices
Valuation is still almost historical low, we think the downside is relatively limited

Hong Kong Banks – Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

By Daniel Tabbush

Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05
Deposits are overwhelming HK’s banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series
Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels

Thematic Report: Indian Pipe Sector Turnaround

By Nimish Maheshwari

PVC‐pipe makers endured FY 25’s perfect storm, resin prices crashed, trade channels destocked, volumes wobbled, yet April-May demand snapped back and resin prices appear to have bottomed.
Anti-Dumping duties plus the coming BIS quality curb on Chinese resin should lock in price discipline; government infra-spend, real-estate and irrigation needs set up 10-12 % volume CAGR for FY27.
With inventory now thin, even a modest restocking cycle could turbo-charge revenues while stabilising input costs let organised players claw back EBITDA margins; diversified leaders look best placed.

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

By Nimish Maheshwari

The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks’ lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26).

Thematic Report: AI’s Productivity Gains; Quantifying Revenue Risk for Indian IT

By Nimish Maheshwari

Generative AI (GenAI) and Agentic AI are ushering in unprecedented productivity gains, projecting a 10-50% efficiency boost in Software Development Life Cycle especially for Application Development and Maintenance (ADM).
A projected ~40% efficiency gain from enterprise-wide GenAI Copilot implementation places approximately 10-15% of current IT services revenues at risk.
Though success hinges on the ability to transition GenAI solutions from pilot projects to scaled production deployments, emphasising IP-led innovation and new value creation over mere cost optimisation.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/NIO US/New Energy Vehicle

By Eric Wen

XPEV US : The new Xiaopeng car will collaborate on the development of Huawei’s HUD solution (+)
NIO US: Onvo to Provide Ride-Hailing Vehicles for Didi (-)
New Energy Vehicle: 2025 May 26 – June 1 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/1024 HK/JD US/TCOM US/3690 HK/NTES US/AI Sector Update

By Ying Pan

700 HK: Tencent’s <VALORANT Mobile> Launches iOS App Store Page, Showing Official Release on November 25 (-)
1024 HK: Kuaishou’s Kling AI Reaches Strategic Cooperation with Design AI Agent LOVART (+)
JD US/TCOM US: JD.com may launch OTA (Online Travel Agency) services in the near future (-//)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 06/06/2025

By Auctus Advisors

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: On track for first gas in 1Q26 – 1Q25 production of 988 boe/d had been previously reported.
Criterium held ~C$1.6 mm in cash at the end of 1Q25.
The company has reduced its accounts payable by ~C$3.5 mm while inventory + amounts receivable were flat vs. YE24.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Verallia, Vedanta Ltd, Iron Ore, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Glass Half Full: Arbitrage Opportunities in Verallia’s Tender Path
Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories
[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists
Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down

Glass Half Full: Arbitrage Opportunities in Verallia’s Tender Path

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BWGI’s tender offer for Verallia has secured regulatory approvals and board support. With strong financial backing and irrevocable commitments, the threshold for success is achievable but not guaranteed.
While early entrants at €27 enjoy strong arbitrage returns, recent prices near €28.14 offer minimal spread. The current trade hinges on bump potential or long-term rerating prospects.
Erallia trades at 6.3x EV/EBITDA vs. Vidrala’s 7.9x. The DCF fair value implies ~30% upside, making holding shares a credible strategy even if the offer fails or underwhelms.

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May, while Caixin PMI dropped sharply to 48.3 signaling the first contraction in 8 months.
China’s industrial profits stagnated in April 2025, highlighting persistent challenges from weak demand, trade war tensions, and deflationary pressures.
Iron ore inventories continued to decline amid slowing shipments and softer blast furnace demand, signaling ongoing destocking.

[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists

Iron ore supply remains steady despite falling Australian exports and surging Brazilian shipments. However, weak Chinese property demand continues to cloud the market outlook.
Analysts at Singapore Ferrous Week trimmed 2025 iron ore surplus forecasts to 20–30 million tons, citing resilient demand, rising steel exports, and Australian supply disruptions.
Prices remain below key moving averages, signalling downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line reinforces the ongoing bearish outlook.

Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

During January-April 2025, exports at 452,866 tons, down 11% YoY
January-April 2025 exports value at US$872.78 mn, up 20.4% YoY
Vietnam Rubber Group reports net profit of US$45.4 mn in Q1 2025

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 07

Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves
The Innermost Layer of the Onion
Asia Geopolitics: No Collective ASEAN Response To Changing Global Order
[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories
[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists
India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth
Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down

HEW: Poorly Positioned Doves

By Phil Rush

The ECB was even more hesitant to signal cuts than we expected, with the level after the unsurprising cut now deemed well-positioned. Cuts will require downside news.
Disinflationary surprises across the Euro area in the May flash releases are already embedded in that assessment. Doves are poorly positioned for this reaction function.
US inflation data may be the most crucial global release next week, although the signal may not be clear. Statistical issues affect the UK labour market and GDP data.

The Innermost Layer of the Onion

By Thomas Lam

It is important to dissect and monitor the underlying inflation backdrop across the G3 economies for a variety of reasons
My estimate of the more or most persistent component of inflation may be a reasonable proxy of underlying inflation
My current underlying inflation estimates for the Euro Area, Japan and US are hovering around 2.0% to modestly below 3.0%

Asia Geopolitics: No Collective ASEAN Response To Changing Global Order

By Manu Bhaskaran

As ASEAN, Chinese, and Gulf leaders gathered in Kuala Lumpur, the lofty proclamations of Global South cooperation are undermined by divergent interests among its members.
The US was not wholly absent, attending the defence-focused Shangri-La Dialogue. Washington signalled continued engagement in Asia, but misread the region’s priorities
Beijing obtained several wins in closer trade and investment ties with the rest of Asia, but gave little commitment in addressing concerns over overcapacity and maritime issues.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May, while Caixin PMI dropped sharply to 48.3 signaling the first contraction in 8 months.
China’s industrial profits stagnated in April 2025, highlighting persistent challenges from weak demand, trade war tensions, and deflationary pressures.
Iron ore inventories continued to decline amid slowing shipments and softer blast furnace demand, signaling ongoing destocking.

[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists