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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Copper, Figma, Ambiq Micro, Shoulder Innovations, Crude Oil, Miami International Holdings, Ohmyhome , Pudgy Penguins Token, General Electric , PMV Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Possibilities To Play “The Copper Trade”
  • Figma Inc (FIG): Range Boosted As Blow-Out Demand Comes in for High-Profile Software IPO
  • Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business
  • Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Small MedTech Implant Company Gaining IPO Interest
  • Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?
  • Miami International Holdings (MIAX): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Financial Exchange Operator
  • OMH: Terminating Coverage
  • Pudgy Penguins: From Web3 Icon to Social Currency
  • General Dynamics: Technological Advancements & Strategic Partnerships Are Paving The Way Forward!
  • SSI Newsletter: PMVP Trial Catalyst, YORKU Trading Split, CPPTL Extension, GLXZ Merger, LUNA Updates


Possibilities To Play “The Copper Trade”

By The Commodity Report

  • The copper trade still gets lots of attention. Reason for us to dig a little deeper and evaluate emerging opportunities.

  • Let’s also evaluate the “fundamental” reason market participants have why COMEX Copper is so much pricier than LME copper…

  • The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported refined copper into the US has triggered a widening of the COMEX-LME-Spread from 11% to 27%.


Figma Inc (FIG): Range Boosted As Blow-Out Demand Comes in for High-Profile Software IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Figma increased its range from $25-$28 to $30-$32 on Monday morning. The company is still offering 36.9mm shares  and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
  • One of our sources stated that the amount of orders in this software IPO exceed 30-times the offering size. 
  • The large customer base, excellent margins and revenue growth in combination with management that continues to reinvest in the business gives us strong conviction on this IPO.

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business

By IPO Boutique

  • The company is forecasting a slow-down in growth based on moving a large portion of its business away from mainland China. 
  • While order flow has come in steady for this IPO, some of our sources are taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. 
  • The valuation is not aggressive, the smaller cash raise is manageable but there are still many questions about this company as they enter the public markets.

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Small MedTech Implant Company Gaining IPO Interest

By IPO Boutique

  • For the three months ended June 30, 2025, they expect net revenue to be between $10.8 million and $11.2 million, compared to $8.3 million for the same period in 2024.
  • Channel checks from our sources revealed that the deal is being classified as well-oversubscribed. The books are scheduled to close Tuesday at 4pm ET.  
  • We like the risk-reward profile of this deal and see solid upside in this deal at this time. 

Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?

By At Any Rate

  • Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia expires on September 2nd, potentially leading to sanctions and increased weapons supplies to Ukraine
  • EU’s new price cap on Russian crude takes effect on September 3rd, aiming to curtail Russia’s energy revenues and strengthen anti-circumvention measures
  • Snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered in September, adding to global oil price volatility and uncertainty

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Miami International Holdings (MIAX): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Financial Exchange Operator

By IPO Boutique

  • The company that describes itself as a technology-driven leader in building and operating regulated financial marketplaces across multiple asset classes and geographies filed for its on July 18th.
  • They maintain a broad portfolio of U.S. exchange and clearing licenses, in both securities and futures.
  • Their revenues less cost of revenues were $275.6 million, $232.5 million and $195.6 million  for 2024, 2023 and 2022. 

OMH: Terminating Coverage

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Ohmyhome Ltd(OMH) Company Sponsored Research Report

Pudgy Penguins: From Web3 Icon to Social Currency

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Pudgy Penguins, initially a successful PFP NFT launch featuring adorable penguin figures, gained early traction but lost momentum following unmet community expectations. 

  • In 2022, current CEO Luca Netz acquired the project and transformed it into a successful IP business through omnichannel meme viral marketing, online experience building, and in-store toy sales.

  • OverpassIP, an NFT licensing platform built by the same team, enables NFT holders to earn royalties, converting Pudgy NFTs with purely speculative value into assets with fundamentals tied to the IP’s commercial success.


General Dynamics: Technological Advancements & Strategic Partnerships Are Paving The Way Forward!

By Baptista Research

  • General Dynamics has recently reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, highlighting several key aspects of its financial performance and operational activities.
  • The company recorded earnings of $3.74 per share, surpassing analyst expectations by $0.19, with revenues coming in at $13 billion, marking an 8.9% increase year-over-year.
  • The operational earnings also showed positive growth, rising by nearly 13% to $1.3 billion, while net earnings increased by 12%.

SSI Newsletter: PMVP Trial Catalyst, YORKU Trading Split, CPPTL Extension, GLXZ Merger, LUNA Updates

By Special Situation Investments

  • PMV Pharmaceuticals is in a Phase 2 trial for cancer therapy, with interim results expected mid-2025, and potential value realization through strategic review due to a large net cash position.
  • Yorkville Acquisition has commenced separate trading of its Class A ordinary shares and warrants, with a $10/share trust value.
  • Copper Property CTL Trust extended its wind-down deadline to January 2026, with amendments allowing confidential shareholder consultations during the sale process.

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Daily Brief Japan: Topcon Corp, Toyota Motor, Shionogi & Co, Japan Pure Chemical, Shin Etsu Chemical, Ono Sokki, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal
  • Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1
  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): High on HIV Royalty; FY Guidance Reaffirmed; New Launches to Drive Growth
  • Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Shin-Etsu Chemical: Full Year Guidance Disappoints
  • Ono Sokki (6858 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
  • Setting the Trading Unit to One Share Is the Quickest Way to Increase Virtual AGMs


[Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
  • In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
  • The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

By Nico Rosti


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): High on HIV Royalty; FY Guidance Reaffirmed; New Launches to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) achieved YoY improvement in all key parameters. Moreover, Q1FY26 result shows a significant improvement compared to Q1FY25, when all key parameters recorded double-digit YoY decline.
  • During Q1FY26, revenue increased 2% YoY to ¥100B, driven by HIV franchise. Q1FY26 revenue records 19% progress, while operating and net profit advanced more than 20% of full-year target.
  • Shionogi has maintained H1FY26 and FY26 guidance. This indicates Q2FY26 revenue expectation of ¥133B, up 14% YoY. Acquisition of JT Group’s pharmaceutical business and Torii Pharmaceutical is progressing.

Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY3.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 37.8% YoY to JPY93mn.
  • Sales for AI servers and data centers remained strong, but consumer product demand stalled due to US-China tensions.
  • Revenue from semiconductor packages grew 24.1% YoY, while automotive-related sales declined slightly due to inventory adjustments.

Shin-Etsu Chemical: Full Year Guidance Disappoints

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Shin-Etsu Chemical’s fiscal Q1/26 results were inline with expectations, with EBIT down -12.6% yoy as margins declined yoy for all of its divisions 
  • However, FY26E guidance disappointed markets, with a -14.4% decline in operating income, well below consensus’ already weak 0.6% forecast, and the stock fell -9.5%
  • Shin-Etsu has trades at a P/B premium to the Japan chemical sector even with a lower ROE, providing limited valuation support especially given a weak operating outlook 

Ono Sokki (6858 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Orders increased by 4.4% YoY to JPY7.4bn, with Measuring Equipment orders at JPY2.2bn and Custom Order Test Equipment at JPY5.2bn.
  • Sales rose 24.8% YoY to JPY6.3bn, despite project postponements, with a gross profit margin decline of 1.1pp to 43.0%.
  • Operating loss narrowed by JPY398mn YoY, while net loss expanded by JPY1.0bn due to absence of extraordinary gains.

Setting the Trading Unit to One Share Is the Quickest Way to Increase Virtual AGMs

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is obvious to everyone that digitization reduces costs. However, if few companies adopt digitization, trust banks that undertake shareholder management tasks will not make temporary investments for digitization.
  • With many companies wanting to distance themselves from shareholders, digitization and online services will unlikely accelerate even if legislation is enacted, at least until manual work reaches its limits.
  • The solution is to create an environment (setting the trading unit to one share) where it is burdensome to send AGM documents manually and count voting rights manually.

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Daily Brief India: NSDL, Indusind Bank, Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd, Aditya Infotech Ltd, Adani Energy Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NSDL IPO Analysis: India’s First & Largest Depository
  • NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Indian Banking’s Longest-Serving, Highest-Paid HR-Head Quits IndusInd Bank
  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup – US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out
  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) IPO – RHP Updates – Revenue Slowing, Margins Growing
  • Aditya Infotech IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


NSDL IPO Analysis: India’s First & Largest Depository

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • NSDL (NSDL IN)‘s IPO is an OFS priced at INR 760-800 per share, targeting an issue size of INR 3,810-4,011 crore
  • As India’s pioneering SEBI-registered MII, company is the largest depository, serving 79,773 issuers as of March 2025, driven by market growth and innovation.
  • Valuation indicators suggest a fair assessment relative to industry peers, underscored by a robust issuer base and inherent financial stability.

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
  • Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.

Indian Banking’s Longest-Serving, Highest-Paid HR-Head Quits IndusInd Bank

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Zubin Mody, Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) abruptly quits Indusind Bank (IIB IN)
  • His resignation adds to the leadership vacuum at the top as the bank has no CEO or any executive directors on the board
  • Apparently the board of directors wants to reboot the bank with a clean senior executive slate

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup – US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

By Akshat Shah

  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) IPO – RHP Updates – Revenue Slowing, Margins Growing

By Sumeet Singh

  • NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to raise around US$460m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from its RHP filing.

Aditya Infotech IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Aditya Infotech Ltd (6596564Z IN) is looking to raise about US$151m in its India IPO.
  • Aditya Infotech is a CCTV/video surveillance provider offering a range of advanced video security and surveillance products, technologies and solutions for enterprise and consumer segments under its CP PLUS brand.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • UST yields were largely stable on Friday, after long-dated yields erased 3-4 bps of increases during the day.
  • The UST curve flattened marginally, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 1 bp to 3.92%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 1 bp to 4.39%.
  • The S&P 500 rose for the fifth straight day, and was up 0.4% at 6,389. 

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Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, GF Securities (H), Great Wall Motor, Laopu Gold, Anta Sports Products, Eastroc Beverage Group, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Raging Onward
  • GF Securities (1776 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Sector Rallies
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Strong Earnings, Soft Share Price – What’s Driving the Disconnect?
  • Anta (2020 HK): Company Estimates Higher Growth Due to Acquisition
  • Eastroc Beverage Group – High Growth in 25H1 Continues but Concerns Begin to Emerge
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK): Is HRS-9821 Licensing Deal with GSK Good Enough?


A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Raging Onward

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia down again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
  • This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

GF Securities (1776 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Sector Rallies

By Brian Freitas

  • Following a rally in the stock over the last 4 months, GF Securities (H) (1776 HK) could be added to a global index in August.
  • GF Securities (H) (1776 HK)‘ peers have also rallied over the same time frame and the stock trades in line with its peers on various valuation metrics.
  • Positioning in the stock is in line with its peers and shorts have continued to increase as the stock price has moved higher.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day. 
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Strong Earnings, Soft Share Price – What’s Driving the Disconnect?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s stock has fallen nearly 30% since its July 8 peak and declined another 4% yesterday despite an upbeat 1H2025 profit update.
  • The company’s positive profit alert reported revenues and profits up more than 2.5x year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
  • The ongoing share price weakness despite strong results likely reflects a combination of technical factors, such as lock-up related selling, and broader fundamental concerns.

Anta (2020 HK): Company Estimates Higher Growth Due to Acquisition

By Ming Lu

  • Anta expects “other brands” revenue will increase by “60-65%” YoY in 1H25.
  • We believe Anta finished the consolidation of Jack Wolfskin within June.
  • We conclude the stock will have an upside of 28% for the next twelve months.

Eastroc Beverage Group – High Growth in 25H1 Continues but Concerns Begin to Emerge

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend in 25H1, which is impressive against the backdrop of the overall stabilization of the food and beverage industry.
  • The mid-term dividend payout ratio is high, which is relatively rare among growth-oriented food and beverage companies. Valuation of Eastroc should be higher than Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beverage.
  • However, inflation may drive up raw material prices. Eastroc’s profit may face pressure once products sales fail to grow as fast as expected.We updated our forecast for next three years

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK): Is HRS-9821 Licensing Deal with GSK Good Enough?

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) entered into agreements with GSK, granting an exclusive worldwide right of HRS-9821, a small molecule, PDE3/PDE4 inhibitor in clinical development for the treatment of COPD.
  • The only similar products available worldwide is Verona Pharma’s Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine) which was approved for marketing by the FDA in June 2024 for maintenance therapy of COPD.
  • The COPD segment has seen increased activity over the last one year in terms of drug approvals, acquisitions, and licensing agreements. This reiterates the growing potential of the COPD market.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, Sai Gon Cargo Service , AeroEdge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears
  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs
  • AeroEdge (7409 JP)


Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • In an all too familiar sight across a range of stocks across a range of markets, Hyosung Heavy Industries‘ stock price has doubled over the last 3 months.
  • The increased market cap should result in index inclusion and passive trackers are estimated to buy 358k shares (US$291m; 4.5x ADV) at the close on 26 August.
  • Hyosung Heavy has outperformed most peers over the last few months but still trades at reasonable relative valuations. Positioning does not appear excessive relative to peers.

Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) reported flat earnings for Q2 FY25, with operating margins/net margins at 75%/65% and ROCEs topping 50%. 
  • The tariff increases (16% YoY) offset the degrowth in volumes (-5%YoY) and the increase in effective taxation (from 11% to 20%). 
  • Based on management guidance, the stock trades at 9.3x FY25 PE, with an 8.6% dividend yield

AeroEdge (7409 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Earlier this month, Substack writer Gezzogero mentioned AeroEdge (7409 JP) (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.
  • I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.
  • The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus (AIR FP) A320neo and Boeing (BA US) 737 MAX.

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Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shoulder Innovations, Chugai Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook
  • Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated


China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s Profit Warning indicates a weak 25H1 results. Performance downturn is longer-than-expected. But as an industry leader, China TCM will enhance its bargaining power by integrating the industrial chain.
  • Investors have reignited interest in betting on privatization of China TCM and potential merger with Taiji, as deadline is approaching.Privatization price may be lower considering China TCM’s weak 25H1 results.
  • HK$0.84-2.17/Share is the reasonable share price range at this stage.The catalyst for China TCM’s share price is CNPGC may announce how to address the horizontal competition issue within three months.

Shoulder Innovations IPO (SI.US): Expect Upside Vs. IPO Price Due To Superior Growth Profile

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shoulder Innovations Inc., a pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, is expected to IPO soon. 
  • The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $19.00 to $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$450M at midpoint on a fully-diluted basis.  
  • I have a positive view of Shoulder Innovations IPO and see upside vs. IPO price due to the company’s superior growth profile, industry-leading gross margins and capital efficient technology.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY rise in core revenue in 1H25, as overseas sales grew 7% YoY and domestic market revenue was up 3%.
  • Actemra witnessed growth in both overseas and domestic market. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥151B (30% of total sales), down 6% YoY.
  • In 1H25, two significant developments that happened are successful P3 trial of orforglipron and positive results from phase I/II study of NXT007.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Japan Pure Chemical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY3.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 37.8% YoY to JPY93mn.
  • Sales for AI servers and data centers remained strong, but consumer product demand stalled due to US-China tensions.
  • Revenue from semiconductor packages grew 24.1% YoY, while automotive-related sales declined slightly due to inventory adjustments.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Swiggy, GDS Holdings , Shibaura Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Tencent, Domain Holdings Australia , Intel Corp, SUMCO Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease ‘Delivering’ BIG Passive Flows
  • GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up
  • Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes
  • ECM Weekly (28 July 2025) – MMC, Pine Lags, Prestige, Veritas, Daehan, Kasumigaseki, NSDL, GNI
  • Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025
  • Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.
  • Sumco (3436): So, This Is How Slumps Die
  • Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor


Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease ‘Delivering’ BIG Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Increased free float should result in passives buying Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) and lower foreign room should lead to passives selling Eternal (ETERNAL IN) at the end of August.
  • The increased free float should also result in passive buying for Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) in September.
  • Eternal has outperformed Swiggy last week following strong earnings. Swiggy announces earnings later this week and that could be a short-term catalyst for a narrowing of the spread.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up

By Brian Freitas



Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Opportunity to Go Short the ADR Premium
  • UMC: -1.2% Discount; ADR Headroom Falls Yet Again by a Significant Amount
  • ASE: +0.7% Premium; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium — ADR Headroom Has First Change in a Long Time

ECM Weekly (28 July 2025) – MMC, Pine Lags, Prestige, Veritas, Daehan, Kasumigaseki, NSDL, GNI

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we had a look at a number of deals that are in the pipeline.
  • On the placements front, it was a relatively quiet week with a few primary raisings.

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025

By FNArena

  • Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.
  • ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

By Patrick Liao

  • On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”
  • Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
  • U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.

Sumco (3436): So, This Is How Slumps Die

By Michael Allen

  • Capacity utilization at Sumco’s largest customer, TSMC, jumped 10% in Q2, with another core customer, Renesas, showing consecutive improvements.
  • Surging AI chip demand and geopolitical shifts favoring non-Chinese suppliers are set to boost demand for high-end silicon wafers.
  • The stock trades at 0.7x book and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. These are levels we think the stock can make a meaningful upward advance from if the improvement in customer inventories broadens.

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

By William Keating

  • Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
  • CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
  • Intel’s 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

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Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Motor , Pacific Industrial, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ainsworth Game Technology, Just Eat Takeaway.com NV, Kraft Heinz Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play
  • [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap
  • How Many Companies Will Be Able to Keep up with the Next Revision of the Corporate Governance Code?
  • Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer
  • Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices
  • Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)


Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Most expect prefs to be in policy crosshairs soon—watch for tighter rules on dividends, discounts, and liquidity, plus likely incentives for redemption or cancellation ahead of commons.
  • If Korea rolls out a pref stock overhaul, long-biased rerate plays could pop—focus on liquid, high-yield large-cap prefs trading at 35%+, yield north of 3%, and solid daily turnover.
  • Korea Inv, Kumho Petro, CJ Cheil, CJ Corp prefs already screen well; Doosan and Hanwha 3PB could join if dividend hikes materialize on back of strong sub earnings.

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) starts with the father+son Chairman and CEO, – combined stake 2.92% – putting nothing in to buy this, with help from banks.
  • The Takeover Price is priced at 0.7x book, and a Net Debt to EBITDA of 2x (when adjusted for securities+pension assets+DTLs) and 5-6x average 2026-2030 FCF.
  • This is being done too cheap: Toyota is the main customer, one third of revenues comes from Japan, and the company is set for a transition to EVs.

How Many Companies Will Be Able to Keep up with the Next Revision of the Corporate Governance Code?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It seems unlikely that there’ll be an increase in formal criteria for corporate governance, like in the previous revision. It looks like there’ll be more demand for human capital disclosure.
  • Many companies don’t fully understand human capital, and there’s concern that achieving disclosure criteria will become the goal, rather than original objective of investing in human capital to create value.
  • The revised Corporate Governance Code requires verification that management resources are being appropriately allocated to investment and shareholder returns. It seems that simpler questions are better than difficult “technical terms.”

Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • The Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) IE considers Novomatic’s A$1.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$0.93-1.07 valuation range. The vote is on 29 August.
  • The offer has drawn opposition from several notable shareholders. There remains at least a 50% chance that the scheme vote fails.  
  • Novomatic can switch to an alternative takeover offer, which limits the downside risk. At the last close and for a 26 September payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.5%/8.2%.  

Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

By Harry Kalfas

  • Prosus NV (PRX NA) is acquiring Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) in an all-cash tender offer of €20.30 per share, valuing the deal at approximately €4.1 billion.
  • The transaction is awaiting Phase 1 regulatory approval from the European Commission, anticipated by late July 2025.
  • Upon completion, Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) will be removed from multiple major indices, potentially causing significant passive fund outflows.

Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

By Richard Howe

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) is currently evaluating a plan to spin off a significant portion of its grocery business into a new, distinct entity. The WSJ reported that this transaction is likely to occur.
  • The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.

  • This new entity, which can be referred to as “SpinCo,” would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products. The remaining company, or “RemainCo,” would strategically focus its operations on faster-growing segments, specifically sauces, spreads, and condiments.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, Sai Gon Cargo Service , AeroEdge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears
  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs
  • AeroEdge (7409 JP)


Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS): Positioning Not Extreme as Index Inclusion Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • In an all too familiar sight across a range of stocks across a range of markets, Hyosung Heavy Industries‘ stock price has doubled over the last 3 months.
  • The increased market cap should result in index inclusion and passive trackers are estimated to buy 358k shares (US$291m; 4.5x ADV) at the close on 26 August.
  • Hyosung Heavy has outperformed most peers over the last few months but still trades at reasonable relative valuations. Positioning does not appear excessive relative to peers.

Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) reported flat earnings for Q2 FY25, with operating margins/net margins at 75%/65% and ROCEs topping 50%. 
  • The tariff increases (16% YoY) offset the degrowth in volumes (-5%YoY) and the increase in effective taxation (from 11% to 20%). 
  • Based on management guidance, the stock trades at 9.3x FY25 PE, with an 8.6% dividend yield

AeroEdge (7409 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Earlier this month, Substack writer Gezzogero mentioned AeroEdge (7409 JP) (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.
  • I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.
  • The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus (AIR FP) A320neo and Boeing (BA US) 737 MAX.

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